wdc lmi update - hawaii...2016 grp 2016 payrolled business locations 2016 taxes 11 crop and animal...

WDC LMI Update2017 Update on Hawaii’s Workforce

Statewide Outlook by IndustriesIndustry Sectors with the Highest Projected Growth (QCEW):

Industry Sectors with the Highest Projected Growth (Non QCEW):

NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change

2015 - 2018 % Change

Current Total Earnings

COL Adjusted Total Current

Earnings2016 Earnings 2016 GRP 2016 Jobs

Multiplier2016 Earnings

Multiplier

722511 Full-Service Restaurants 34,897 37,380 2,483 7% $28,538 $18,062 $1,027,185,051 $1,257,648,123 1.49 1.83

561330 Professional Employer Organizations 16,948 19,115 2,167 13% $43,342 $27,432 $730,442,454 $826,997,554 1.54 1.59

721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 38,246 39,343 1,097 3% $54,237 $34,327 $2,111,611,609 $3,728,882,266 2.07 1.93

621491 HMO Medical Centers 461 1,498 1,037 225% $101,520 $64,253 $127,941,817 $137,058,707 2.68 1.78

238210 Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors 4,624 5,400 776 17% $87,810 $55,576 $459,591,717 $570,584,204 2.09 1.63

95,175 102,736 7,561 8% $45,217 $28,618 $4,456,772,648 $6,521,170,853

NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change

2015 - 2018 % Change

Current Total

Earnings


Earnings2016 Earnings 2016 GRP 2016 Jobs

Multiplier

2016 Earnings

Multiplier901200 Federal Government, Military 58,274 59,698 1,424 2% $60,570 $38,335 $3,550,746,198 $7,677,298,778 2.57 2.29

901199 Federal Government, Civilian, Excluding Postal Service 124 173 49 40% $73,686 $46,637 $3,271,116,008 $4,059,413,588 2.48 1.71

58,398 59,871 1,473 3% $60,602 $38,356 $6,821,862,206 $11,736,712,366

Statewide Outlook by Occupations• Occupations with the Highest Projected Growth (QCEW):

• Occupations with the Highest Projected Growth (Non-QCEW):

SOC Description 2016 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change

2015 - 2018 % Change Openings Avg. Hourly

Earnings

COL Adjusted Median Hourly

Earnings35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 15,880 16,483 911 6% 3,249 $15.61 $7.3329-1141 Registered Nurses 11,423 11,951 777 7% 1,605 $43.34 $28.2535-2014 Cooks, Restaurant 8,572 9,045 710 9% 1,409 $15.15 $8.70

35-3021 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 12,162 12,556 550 5% 1,749 $10.71 $5.82

47-2061 Construction Laborers 4,962 5,241 477 10% 782 $25.10 $16.0452,999 55,277 3,426 7% 8,794 $21.25 $12.51

SOC Description 2016 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change

2015 - 2018 % Change Openings Avg. Hourly

Earnings

COL Adjusted Median Hourly

Earnings

55-9999 Military occupations 58,622 59,698 1,424 2% 5,590 $19.16 $11.15

45-2092 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 645 705 58 9% 114 $13.26 $8.23

43-6014 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 1,823 1,871 47 3% 106 $19.20 $11.91

43-9061 Office Clerks, General 1,879 1,921 41 2% 165 $15.63 $9.65

37-2011 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,071 1,103 36 3% 101 $12.68 $7.54

64,041 65,298 1,605 3% 6,075 $18.89 $11.04

Other Data Sources

• Statewide Forecast Update – UHERO – March 3, 2017• Hawaii’s healthy labor market conditions will continue. Much of the recent hiring has been in

accommodations and food services.

• Health care has also seen strong job growth, expanding by nearly 3% last year.

• The next wave of resort and retail related construction and the ramping up of single-family home building will sustain activity near its current level through 2019.

• Federal government hiring faces uncertain prospects, now that President Trump has issues and across-the-board hiring freeze. While the Department of Defense has clarified that public Naval shipyards are exempt, the impact on other positions remain unclear.

Risk Factors Could Impact Hawaii’s Near Term Economic Future

• Exposure from Policy• impact health care, government employment, defense spending, immigration.

• Financial Exposure• The continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar increases the cost of foreign visitors to Hawaii,

making other foreign travel destinations financially more attractive. • Increasing interest rates further strengthen the dollar as a investment from foreign investors.

• Exposure from Global Factors• Continuing Global Debt Crisis• Terrorism and political instability

Identified Target Industries:• Agriculture

• Information Technology

• Health Care

• Construction

• Shipyard – Federal Government, Military/Water Transportation

Agriculture SectorNAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018

Change2015 - 2018

% ChangeCurrent Total

Earnings


Earnings2016 GRP

2016 Payrolled Business

Locations2016 Taxes

11 Crop and Animal Production 16,093 16,509 416 3% $29,479 $18,658 $533,738,669 458 $43,657,141

Regional Trends – Projected Job Growth by County

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change

United States 3,596,174 3,684,397 88,223 2.5%

State of Hawaii 16,093 16,509 416 2.6%

Honolulu County, HI 3,909 4,034 125 3.2%

Hawaii County, HI 7,671 8,015 344 4.5%

Maui County, HI 3,022 2,964 (58) (1.9%)

Kauai County, HI 1,491 1,496 5 0.3%

Unemployed (10/2016) 266

Agriculture – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii

Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI

Hawaii County, HI

Maui County, HI

Kauai County, HI

11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 1,732,705 5,888 916 3,510 988 473

45-2092 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 842,057 4,067 1,166 1,656 854 391

45-3011 Fishers and Related Fishing Workers 75,543 1,243 499 383 195 16539-2021 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 90,299 613 100 424 55 34

45-2093 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals 77,071 403 122 153 96 32

Total 2,817,674 12,213 2,804 6,126 2,187 1,096

Information SectorNAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018

Change2015 - 2018 %

ChangeCurrent Total

Earnings


Earnings

51 Information $1,918,451,919 $218,677,296 $811,016,135 11,499 11,791 292 3% $69,194 $43,794

Regional Trends – Projected Change in Jobs by County

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change

United States 3,407,071 3,529,102 122,031 3.6%

State of Hawaii 11,499 11,791 292 2.5%

Honolulu County, HI 9,172 9,319 147 1.6%

Hawaii County, HI 1,000 1,120 120 12.0%Maui County, HI 913 929 16 1.8%

Kauai County, HI 384 396 12 3.1%

Unemployed (10/2016) 155

Information – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii



Hawaii County, HI

Maui County, HI

Kauai County, HI

49-2022 Telecommunications Equipment Installersand Repairers, Except Line Installers 183,360 779 601 89 61 25

43-4051 Customer Service Representatives 166,260 578 470 55 37 1327-2012 Producers and Directors 114,352 567 472 35 45 1441-3099 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 159,822 556 424 60 47 22

49-9052 Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers 79,525 406 290 62 34 19

Total 703,320 2,885 2,258 301 224 95

Health Care SectorNAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018

Change2015 - 2018


Earnings


Earnings

62 Health Care and Social Assistance $5,229,048,372 $137,244,119 $4,939,652,698 79,642 84,536 4,894 6% $61,150 $38,703

Unemployed (10/2016) 1,146

Industry Change Summary

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 2016 Average Earnings

United States 21,165,561 22,624,958 1,459,397 7% $54,742Hawaii 79,642 84,536 4,894 6% $61,150Honolulu County, HI 60,579 64,302 3,723 6% $64,372Hawaii County, HI 8,956 9,507 551 6% $46,012Maui County, HI 6,940 7,321 381 5% $54,025Kauai County, HI 3,154 3,387 233 7% $58,146

Health Care – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii



Hawaii County, HI

Maui County, HI

Kauai County, HI

29-1141 Registered Nurses 2,369,146 8,226 6,934 655 368 269

39-9021 Personal Care Aides 2,097,639 6,645 4,457 1,224 619 343

31-1011 Home Health Aides 1,190,099 5,518 4,297 668 375 177

31-1014 Nursing Assistants 1,376,983 4,679 3,622 474 293 290

31-9092 Medical Assistants 597,543 2,907 2,328 261 235 83

Total 7,631,410 27,976 21,639 3,282 1,890 1,162

Construction SectorNAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018

Change2015 - 2018


Earnings


Earnings

23 Construction $4,373,364,551 $55,824,120 $3,522,276,179 46,205 50,791 4,586 10% $72,466 $45,865

Unemployed (10/2016) 3,447


United States 9,948,900 10,351,581 402,681 4% $53,876Hawaii 46,205 50,791 4,586 10% $72,466Honolulu County, HI 31,836 35,643 3,807 12% $79,282Hawaii County, HI 6,337 6,597 260 4% $54,266Maui County, HI 5,625 5,942 317 6% $60,378Kauai County, HI 2,389 2,599 210 9% $55,875

Construction – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 For the State of Hawaii



Hawaii County, HI

Maui County, HI

Kauai County, HI

47-2061 Construction Laborers 1,621,331 7,047 4,771 1,073 755 44847-2031 Carpenters 1,277,730 6,489 3,973 1,035 1,025 45447-2111 Electricians 602,511 3,594 2,750 332 414 96

47-2141 Painters, Construction and Maintenance 537,358 2,776 1,883 385 327 179

47-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 582,235 2,519 1,724 337 324 134

Total 4,621,165 22,425 15,102 3,163 2,845 1,311

Shipyard – DOD (6 digit NAICS)


United States 1,955,000 1,950,360 (4,640) 0% $47,046Hawaii 58,274 59,698 1,424 2% $60,570Honolulu County, HI 55,136 56,496 1,360 2% $62,689Hawaii County, HI 1,365 1,393 28 2% $21,621Maui County, HI 1,155 1,175 20 2% $22,434Kauai County, HI 618 634 16 3% $29,462

Industry Summary for Federal Government, Military

58,622 2.4% $60,570Jobs (2016) % Change (2015-2018) Avg. Earnings Per Job (2016)

146% above National average Nation: -0.2% Nation: $47,046

Top Occupations – Change (Only Non-QCEW)


Hawaii County, HI

Maui County, HI

Kauai County, HI

55-9999 Military occupations (4,640) 1,424 1,360 28 20 16Total (4,640) 1,424 1,360 28 20 16

Presenter

Presentation Notes

In this slide, I show the Change in Top Occupations between 2015 to 2018 because there is only 1 SOC. The top occupations in this sector don’t change from 2015 to 2018, but interestingly, this shows you a projected decline in Federal Military Occupations throughout the nation.

Private Shipyard – Water TransportationIndustry Summary for Support Activities for Water Transportation

1,311 6.3% $133,317Jobs (2016) % Change (2015-2018) Avg. Earnings Per Job (2016)

188% above National average Nation: 1.9% Nation: $82,677


United States 103,179 105,102 1,923 2% $82,677Hawaii 1,275 1,355 80 6% $133,317Honolulu County, HI 1,120 1,183 63 6% $136,747Hawaii County, HI 59 74 15 25% $134,119Maui County, HI 71 77 6 8% $90,241Kauai County, HI 24 21 (3) (13%) $99,836



Hawaii County, HI

Maui County, HI

Kauai County, HI

53-7062 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 20,114 220 199 <10 10 <10

53-5021 Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels 7,007 129 102 <10 16 <10

43-5011 Cargo and Freight Agents 2,884 78 57 12 <10 <1053-7121 Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders 4,474 73 66 <10 <10 <1053-7051 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 10,225 62 57 <10 <10 <10

Total 44,704 562 481 35 37 <10

Conclusions between 2016 to 2018

• Hawaii’s Real GDP is projected to grow approximately 3.7%.

• Hawaii’s employment is projected to grow by 1.6%

• The targeted economic areas identified by Director Takayama are projected to grow faster than Hawaii’s overall job growth.

Identified Target Industries:

• Agriculture Projected to Grow by 416 Jobs or 3%• Information Projected to grow by 292 jobs or 3%• Health Care Projected to grow by 4,894 jobs or 6%• Construction Projected to grow by 4,586 jobs or 10%• Shipyard – Federal Government, Military/Water Transportation

• Federal DOD (Not just the shipyard) Projected to grow by 1.424 jobs or 2.4%

• Private Shipyard Projected to grow by 80 jobs or 6.3%

Other Good News:Alterative Measures of Underemployment

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-62003 1.4 2 4.3 4.5 5.2 8.92004 1 -28.57% 1.4 -30.00% 3.4 -20.93% 3.6 -20.00% 4.5 -13.46% 7.5 -15.73%2005 0.9 -10.00% 1 -28.57% 2.9 -14.71% 3.1 -13.89% 3.7 -17.78% 6.4 -14.67%2006 0.7 -22.22% 1 0.00% 2.7 -6.90% 2.8 -9.68% 3.5 -5.41% 6.2 -3.13%2007 0.8 14.29% 1.1 10.00% 2.9 7.41% 3 7.14% 3.6 2.86% 6.4 3.23%2008 1.1 37.50% 1.8 63.64% 4.2 44.83% 4.4 46.67% 5.2 44.44% 8.8 37.50%2009 3.5 218.18% 4.3 138.89% 7.4 76.19% 8 81.82% 9.1 75.00% 15.5 76.14%2010 3.9 11.43% 3.8 -11.63% 7 -5.41% 7.9 -1.25% 8.9 -2.20% 16.9 9.03%2011 4.5 15.38% 4.2 10.53% 7.3 4.29% 7.8 -1.27% 9 1.12% 15.1 -10.65%2012 3.3 -26.67% 3.2 -23.81% 6 -17.81% 6.4 -17.95% 7.5 -16.67% 12.8 -15.23%2013 2.4 -27.27% 2.1 -34.38% 4.8 -20.00% 5.5 -14.06% 6.6 -12.00% 11.5 -10.16%2014 1.9 -20.83% 1.8 -14.29% 4.4 -8.33% 4.7 -14.55% 5.6 -15.15% 10.2 -11.30%2015 1.5 -21.05% 1.6 -11.11% 3.7 -15.91% 4.1 -12.77% 5.3 -5.36% 9.7 -4.90%2016 1.2 -20.00% 1.4 -12.50% 3.2 -13.51% 3.6 -12.20% 4.6 -13.21% 8.3 -14.43%

What are the Implication for the WDC and Hawaii’s Public Workforce System

• Current Unemployment Rate is low, about 3%. Projections and data suggest Hawaii’s GDP and employment will experience positive growth through 2018.

• In the past, when we got closer to full there is increased need for basic employability skill

• We are putting workers back into industry sectors that are cyclical that still suffer from the vulnerabilities of the lack of economic diversification

• Kind of feel that the exposures that were identified earlier feel more pressing.• Businesses need new sources of labor – Employees’ market.• Economic growth can be limited by worker shortages

Questions and Discussion

wdc lmi update - hawaii...2016 grp 2016 payrolled business locations 2016 taxes 11 crop and animal...

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