water overview: looking back at 2014 and · madera irrigation district 15% 62% oakdale irrigation...

Water Overview: Looking Back at 2014 and

Looking Forward to 2015

Richard Waycott, ABC (Moderator)

Michael Anderson, Department of Water

Resources

Mike Wade, California Farm Water Coalition

Bob Curtis, ABC

Allan Fulton, UCCE-Tehama County

Michael Anderson,

Department of Water Resources

California Drought,

Climate, and Change

California Climate Tracker Rankings

Region

WY2014 Value

(inches) % of Average Rank

Sierra 20.76 53% 3

Northeast 15.21 63% 15

North Central 28.87 56% 6

Sacramento Delta 10.68 54% 8

San Joaquin Valley 4.81 38% 1

North Coast 33.48 51% 3

Central Coast 11.94 47% 2

South Coast 5.63 32% 1

South Interior 9.04 50% 5

Mojave 2.9 39% 2

Sonoran 2.41 54% 21

Statewide 12.08 52% 3

California Climate Tracker Regional Water Year Temperature Rankings

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

66 68 70 72 74

1895-2000 POR Average 21st Century

2014

Statewide Average Maximum Temperature (degrees F)

Sta

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ide

An

nu

al P

recip

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tion

(in

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es)

2011

1924

1977

Data from WRCC CA Climate Tracker

Statewide WY Precipitation/Maximum Temperature 1895-2014

Data from WRCC CA Climate Tracker

Statewide WY Precipitation/Minimum Temperature 1895-2014

Statewide Average Minimum Temperature (degrees F)

Sta

tew

ide

An

nu

al P

recip

ita

tion

(in

ch

es)

0

10

20

30

40

50

38 40 42 44 46

1895-2000 POR Average 21st Century

Questions? Email: [email protected]

Mike Wade,

California Farm Water Coalition

California Water

Supply

Mike Wade

California Farm Water Coalition

Reservoir Conditions

• January 8, 2012


• December 1, 2013


• November 30, 2014

Surface Water Allocation Examples – 2014/2013

2014 2013

Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District 75% 100%

Madera Irrigation District 15% 62%

Oakdale Irrigation District 25% 95%

South San Joaquin Irrigation District 80% 100%

Tehama-Colusa Canal Authority 0% 75%

San Luis & Delta-Mendota Water Auth. 0% 20%

Imperial Irrigation District (Colorado River) 100% 100%

Statewide Average Allocation 33% 68%

2014 Groundwater Pumping

• UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences, UC Davis Ag Issues Center and

ERA Economics estimated that in 2014 there was a reduction in surface

supplies of 6.6 million acre-feet.

• They further estimated that groundwater pumping accounted for 77 percent

of the lost surface supplies, or 5.1 million acre-feet.

• This still resulted in a 1.5 million acre-foot shortage of water supplies.

• Additional pumping costs - $454 million

• Lost crop revenue - $810 million

• Livestock and dairy revenue lost - $203 million

• Total direct losses - $1.5 billion

• Total economic cost - $2.2 billion

• Total job losses – 17,100

Bob Curtis, ABC

Allen Fulton, UCCE-Tehama County

Almond Water

Overview:

Looking back at 2014

Looking forward at 2015

Robert Curtis, ABC

Allan Fulton, UCCE

Outline

• Broad overview of the water supply situation for the almond

industry during 2014

• Identify and discuss distinctions among the different almond

production regions

• Summarize key water resource challenges facing the industry

in 2015 and beyond

Almond Broad Overview of the Water Supply

2014 ALMOND DROUGHT SURVEY

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Fruits

_and_Nuts/201409almdroughtsup.pdf

• Stratified, random sample design

• Information requested from 688 farm operations

• Written survey, followed by telephone for those not responding to written survey

• 458 respondents, 420 useable reports, all respondents were operating in 2014

Survey Background

Section 1 – Surface Water Supply

Section 1 – Surface Water Supply (continued)

Section 2 – Groundwater Supply

Section 2 – Groundwater Supply (Reliability)

Section 3 – Groundwater Quality

Important

Distinctions Among

the Different Almond

Growing Areas

Information Sources:

• Almond Statistics

– USDA – NASS, California office = acerage

– Almond Board of California = production

• Temperature, rainfall, and ETo data

- Western Regional Climate Center

- California Department of Water Resources, CIMIS Reference ET Zones

• Water Resources/Groundwater conditions

– DWR: http://gis.water.ca.gov/app/groundwater/ (Through spring 2014)

– Characteristics of Irrigation Pump Performance in Major Irrigated Areas of

California. Cal Poly ITRC, ITRC Report No. R11-004, May 2011

– Personal communications and personal experience

Almond Production Areas: Kernel Pound Production and Acreage

2013 Totals:

• 840,000 bearing acres • 2.01 billion lbs kernels • 2,393 lbs/ac average

Westside Sacramento Valley – Tehama, Glenn, Colusa, Yolo, and Solano

Counties

2013 Production:

• 86,942 bearing acres • 216.5 million lbs • 1,892 to 3,072lbs/ac

range • 2,490 lbs/ac average

Water Resources:

1. Groundwater ̴ 75 to >200 ft pumping lifts

2. Federal (CVP) 3. Private – Local District

Average Climate ( ̊ F, inches):

Challenges:

1. Declining spring groundwater levels ̴ 1 to 6 ft per year

2. Unreliable surface water supplies 3. New and reconditioned wells

common 4. Relatively, fewer salinity issues 5. Third party impacts

County Feb. Min

Temp Feb. Max

Temp Feb.

Rainfall Total

Rainfall Annual

ETo

Tehama 40.3 59.9 3.8 23.2 57.0

Glenn 39.0 60.4 3.1 18.0 53.4

Colusa 39.0 60.8 2.7 15.6 53.4

Yolo 40.9 60.5 3.5 18.5 53.4

Solano 39.7 60.4 3.2 17.6 53.4

Eastside Sacramento Valley – Butte, Sutter, and Yuba Counties

2013 Production:

• 35,897 bearing acres • 64.7 million lbs • 1,610 to 1,830 lbs/ac


Water Resources:


2. Private – Local District 3. State (SWP)


Challenges:

1. More stable spring groundwater levels ̴ 0 to 3 ft decline per year

2. Surface supplies relatively more reliable

3. Fewer new and reconditioned wells 4. Less land suitable to expand (rice) 5. Relatively fewer issues with salinity 6. Third party impacts

County Feb. Min

Temp Feb. Max

Temp Feb.

Rainfall Total

Rainfall Annual

ETo

Butte 38.6 59.9 4.4 25.7 53.4

Sutter 39.0 60.4 3.4 17.3 53.4

Yuba 41.3 60.4 3.7 21.0 53.4

Northern San Joaquin Valley – San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced

Counties

2013 Production:



Water Resources:


2. Private/Local Districts (east) 3. Federal (CVP) (west)


County Feb. Min

Temp Feb. Max

Temp Feb.

Rainfall Total

Rainfall Annual

ETo San Joaquin 40.4 60.6 2.2 13.8 53.4 Stanislaus 40.8 60.9 2.1 12.2 53.4 Merced 38.7 61.6 2.2 12.3 53.4

Challenges:

1. Declining spring (static) groundwater levels ̴ 5 to 45 ft decline per year

2. Unreliable surface water 3. New and reconditioned wells

common 4. Increasing salinity (west) 5. Third party impacts

Central San Joaquin Valley – Madera and Fresno Counties

2013 Production:

• 182,739 bearing acres

• 615.0 million lbs • 2,881 to 3,704lbs/ac


Water Resources:


2. Private/Local Districts (east) 3. Federal (CVP) (west)


County Feb. Min

Temp Feb. Max

Temp Feb.

Rainfall Total

Rainfall Annual

ETo Madera 40.4 60.6 2.2 13.8 53.4 Fresno 40.8 60.9 2.1 12.2 53.9

Challenges:

1. Declining spring (static) groundwater levels ̴ 5 to 45 ft decline per year


common 4. Increasing salinity (west side) 5. Third party impacts

Southern San Joaquin Valley – Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties

2013 Production:



Water Resources:


2. Private/Local Districts (east) 3. State (SWP)


County Feb. Min

Temp Feb. Max

Temp Feb.

Rainfall Total

Rainfall Annual

ETo Kings 38.6 61.9 1.5 8.4 62.5 Tulare 40.0 63.6 1.3 7.2 53.4 Kern 39.0 63.2 1.1 5.6 57.9

Challenges:

1. Declining spring (static) groundwater levels ̴ 10 to >60 ft decline per year


common 4. Increasing salinity 5. Third party impacts

Key Observations in 2014

• Every almond production region is relying on groundwater extensively to meet crop

water demand. Groundwater levels declined in all production regions. Rates of

decline are relatively lower in the northern regions and higher moving south.

• Areas of the west side and southern San Joaquin Valley are the main production

regions also challenged by declining groundwater quality in addition to declining

groundwater conditions.

• Water supply for irrigation is closer to equilibrium with crop demand in the northern

production regions. This is related to higher rainfall and being near areas of origin

of surface water that recharge groundwater. However, crop yields are often not as

high as in the southern regions with intermediate or lower rainfall.

• Groundwater extraction in every almond production region is under increasing

scrutiny with respect to competition for drinking water and impacts on stream and

river flows.

Anticipating 2015

• Even if 2014/15 turns out to be a “wet” year, it is going to take time to recover

from this drought (particularly further south). Any recovery can potentially be

short lived.

• If the drought continues, cumulative effects of short water supplies are

inevitable for the almond crop. Declining water quality will be additive. Some

areas will experience more impact than others.

• Successful farm operations excel at adapting and optimizing their situation and

a strong almond commodity helps make it possible. Prudent decisions lie

ahead concerning:

– New acreage to plant and old acreage to pull

– Investment and payback of costly water resources

– Integrating new technology and concepts into almond cultural practices

Beyond 2015 – How much deeper can Central Valley Ag Pump?

• The almond industry and its producers need to engage in the new Sustainable

Groundwater Act

– Begin with this morning’s session “Water Policy and Politics” (10:35 Room

308 – 313.

– Follow up in your local areas

– Every almond production region is faced with successfully implementing

local management & self-regulation or risking more state intervention

– Realistically, sustainable groundwater management involves locally active

management of both surface water and groundwater supplies in an

attempt to secure and stabilize local water supplies

– The success of local management to sustain groundwater will influence

whether the almond industry needs to or can pump deeper in the future

THANK

YOU!

water overview: looking back at 2014 and · madera irrigation district 15% 62% oakdale irrigation...

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