VUEThursday 27 November 2008

Vingstedcentret, Denmark

Guidance in Scotland – demands, methods and results

Vivienne Brown, Head of Policy & StrategySkills Development Scotland

Dynamic timesGlobalisation & economic instabilities

UK economic challenges

Social well-being & cultural shifts

Education, employment and skills Reforms

Political elections which defy the pundits

Fast moving technology and changing interpersonal communications

Key UK policies and strategies -a critical time…

Leitch Review on skills – others in UK

Economic strategies

NEET and “worklessness” strategies

Increase in vocational learning opportunities in school and

beyond

Investment in “Third Sector”

Welfare Reforms and IES

Additionally, IAG landscapeReview of Careers Wales

Changes to Connexions and design of new AACS in England

Emergence of Skills Development Scotland from Careers

Scotland

Recent new all-age IAG developments and split from ES in

Northern Ireland

Why do we need a Skills Strategy

“Skills development contributes to economic development from which …. other benefits flow, such as social justice,

stronger communities & more engaged citizens.”

but Scotland’s skills profile and qualification levels are not matched by its economic growth rate

so ..it is not just about more skills…

we need to address the demand for and utilisation of skills

Our VisionA smarter Scotland with a globally competitive economy

based on high value jobs, with progressive and innovative business leadership

- people motivated & confident to learn new skills

- small businesses & migrant workers encouraged

- employers invest in and access to a skilled workforce

- learning & training delivery = one system – barriers

removed

Approach - Consensus

Skills nested within lifelong learning

Improve employer voice, but not at the expense of the

individual

Create demand for skills, not increase the qualifications

stockpile

Three Priorities

Individual development

Economic pull

Cohesive structures

Across the continuum of lifelong learning

A strong start – early years, compulsory education

Developing potential – learning for the world of work

for those out of the workforce

Making skills work for Scotland – work based

learning & role of employers

Information, advice & guidance – support services

Learner centred funding support

Individual Development

1. Developing a distinctively Scottish Approach- balancing the needs of employers & individuals & placing the individual at the centre

2. Ensuring equal access to & participation in skills and learning for everyone

3. Developing a coherent funding structure – that encourages participation & increases choice

Economic Pull

4. Stimulating demand for skills from employers –public & private

5. Improving skills utilisation

6. Understanding current & future projected demands for skills

7. Challenging employers, providers & awarding bodies to use the SCQF

Cohesive Structures8. Simplify structures - creating one body focused on

skills (Creation of Skills Development Scotland)

9. Ensure Curriculum for Excellence is at the heart of skills acquisition

10. Achieve parity of esteem between academic & vocational learning

11. Challenge funding bodies to achieve a step change

12. Encourage training providers to bridge the gaps for learners

Strategic Fit Sits below:

Government Economic StrategyBudget

Interacts with:Local Authority Concordat

Sits alongside: Existing work

eg MCMCUpcoming work:

eg:Early Years Strategy; Science Strategy

Since Publication

Simplify structures - creating one body focused on skills Skills Development Scotland

Bringing together learndirect Scotland, Careers Scotland and most the skills and training aspects of Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Island Enterprise

Skills Development Scotland client groups

Developing our young people 12-19

Bringing people into work 20+

Developing talent in work 20+

Canada Challenges and issues

Excellent OECD performance to date hides the underlying issues that there is no growth and no investment at the same levels of competitors in student access to higher education

Lack of engagement with policy-makers and decision-makers for career guidance and development

Disconnect, and policy goal ambiguities, between potentially related policies in education, lifelong learning, social inclusion and economic development

Limited recognition that school to post-school transition is critical to life-chances of individuals

Too much emphasis on school-university as the only “real”

post-school route, coupled with access-for-all issues

Learner funding directed at middle-class families

Lack of lifelong learning culture, little attention to adult and

community - based learners; and no QCF

Increasing disconnect between new graduate subject expertise

and skills needs of the workforce

Major geographical and distance issues – each province has a

varying economy, income levels and educational and skills

provision

Unemployment has not been a recognisable concept for

Aboriginal people, until now; increasing youth unemployment

levels

Lack of integration of skilled immigrant workers

Careers Advisers have no “professional” qualifications

There is no government funded careers service –

provision associated with and funded through learning

institutions. Now a call for setting up an independent,

public-funded Careers Service for those not engaged in

work or learning.

No real public awareness of the role and value of

career development

No LMI, no data - sharing, no research to speak of, no

pan –Canadian structures to engage discussions, no

appetite for change in some quarters, and on-going

resultant policy goal ambiguities

The top ten issues for access post-school

Who is “under-

represented”?

A “positional good”?

Access to what exactly?

Economic or social rates

of return?

“Widening participation” or

“fair access”?

Equity or excellence?

Merit or need

Reputation or quality?

Reward or

compensation?

What is to be done?

The “access” equation

(Age x Class x [Dis]ability x Ethnicity x Gender x Language x Location x Schooling x Status x Subject)

A “perfect storm:” children in care.

See Jackson, Sonia, Ajayi, Sarah and Quigley, Margaret (2005), Going to University from Care.

A “positional good”?

“You can only enjoy a positional good if others

don’t have it,” The Economist 23.12.06

“It’s not enough to succeed. Others must fail.”

Gore Vidal

“The trouble with fairness is that there isn’t

enough to go around.” Guy Browning

Percentage change in enrolments by subject area, 1996/7 to 2005/06

Likelihood of Excellent Health - Women

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Institute of Education: Wider Benefits of Learning Group (http://www.learningbenefits.net/Publications/ResearchReports.htm)

Likelihood of Educational problems in children

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Institute of Education: Wider Benefits of Learning Group (http://www.learningbenefits.net/Publications/ResearchReports.htm)

Widening participation or “fair access”?

In England in 2007:

80,000 children were eligible for free school meals post 16

5,000 of these took A-levels

3,000 children got 3 “A” grades at A-level

176 of these were eligible for free school meals

Written answer to Parliamentary question by Shadow Children’s Secretary Michael Gove, The Guardian 23.2.08

SFC Funding Promoting Wider Access 2008-09

College funding£14.3M Discretionary Fund and Child Care£ 4.5M MCMC£ 1.6M Access and Participation£20.4M TOTAL

HE Funding£10.2M Widening Access Retention Premium£ 2.5M Disabled Students Premium£ 5.1M Access and Participation£ 3.1M Skills and Employability£20.9 Total

What access issues are not about

Inadequate admissions tutors

Irrational choices by students

Debt aversion

Supply-side defects

How can we improve access post school

Improving schools and the schooling experience

Managing parental expectations within school and beyond

National ambitions for Level 3 qualifications

Genuine employer engagement and dialogue

Expert careers Information Advice and Guidance,

grounded by LMI

Why measure impact?

Does careers guidance and development have an impact? How do we

know?

Can we articulate the impact of career guidance and development for

individuals and specific projects and at higher policy or national levels?

Can impact determine what contribution career guidance and

development can make in key policy areas i.e. economic, social and

education?

Can impact evidence influence policy from an

improved position of knowledge?

Can we create a value for career guidance?

Measuring Impact – first steps towards a conceptual impact model

undertook desk research using the available literature on

impact of career guidance and development to date, in the

UK and beyond

created a set of hypotheses, with potential outcomes,

based on the data review

identified the degree of availability of evidence using a

traffic light system

available evidence was used to estimate the likely

effects of career guidance for each inferential

statement

we applied a GVA/GDP model of calculation to create

an impact value

hypotheses also indicated potential topics for future

research

Research Study Outcomes

increased knowledge of the impact and value of

Careers Scotland based on a developing Conceptual

Impact Model

advice on how better to articulate the impact and value

of career guidance from a variety of viewpoints for

stakeholders, partners, managers, staff and clients

identification of gaps in evidence provides opportunity

to develop a Careers Scotland Research and

Development strategy that can support future impact

measurement as part of other research and evaluation

consideration of different approaches to widen the evidence

base including longitudinal tracking, and other research with

partners

build-in impact and value in all future research and

evaluation

advice on developing our performance management

systems, to improve our own data collection to measure

impact

Hypotheses - the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements – Learning Goals

Outcomes

greater access to learning and training

greater participation in learning and training

higher retention rates in education and training

greater education and training attainment; and higher level skills

improved motivation and hence attainment in education and training

Impacts

higher wage levels through gaining higher qualifications

increased entry rates through having a career focus

Hypotheses - the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements – Economic Goals

Outcomes

higher levels of participation in employmentlower levels of unemploymentimproved job tenure through increased motivation at worka more responsive and flexible workforceimprovements in the employability of individuals

Impacts

higher wage levels - a long run uplift in wages attributed to career guidance improved productivity

Hypotheses – the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements - Social Goals

Outcomes

increased confidence

increased well being which contributes to health benefits for society

reductions in crime and offending behaviour

greater levels of social inclusion

Impacts

reductions in lost earnings and lower productivity through “lost” education and training

reductions in social security, NHS and other public costs

Applying a value – GDP/GVA calculations

Examples

economic impact - increased workforce participation

based on the calculation of an employment differential

attributed to career guidance

learning impact - increased attainment levels associated

with career guidance and the resulting improved

earnings associated with higher levels of attainment

social impact - costs avoided including the costs of

unemployment

GVA/GDP was calculated, using the evidence

available, at more than 5 times Careers Scotland’s

current annual budget - approximately £250m

Additional Findings – soft indicators

raises self-confidence and self-belief

improves motivation, well-being and willingness to take

calculated risks, based on improved understanding of

work and learning goals

supports individuals to set career goals which in turn

drives stronger educational ambition and career aspiration

The evidence used to develop the hypotheses also

showed that career guidance and development:

often works best in the medium to longer term, and as part

of a “package” of support, especially for those from lower

socio-economic backgrounds

makes greatest impact on individuals with limited social

‘networks’, irrespective of academic ability

can demonstrate a longer term uplift in wages for those

who have career goals and undertaken progressive career

development actions, thereby contributing to a lifelong

learning and career development culture