venuescore 2017 executive summary - javelin group · javelin group executive summary | venuescore...

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

VENUESCORE 2017UK Shopping Venue Rankings

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 02 | CONTENTS

Contents

1 Introduction 03

2 Methodology 05

3 Findings 10

Location Grade – Leading 180 venues represent ~24% of UK’s total VENUESCORE 10

Top Shopping Venues – Manchester pips Glasgow to the post 11

Major Movers – John Lewis’s opening increases Chelmsford’s retail rank by 23 places 12

Top Shopping Centres – Westfield continues to dominate 14

Top Retail Parks – Fort Kinnard climbs the retail rankings 16

Top Factory Outlet Centres – Cheshire Oaks defends its title 17

Dominant City Centres – Conurbation performance is unchanged 18

Malls vs. High Streets – Dominance of malls is a regional trend 19

London Focus – Spending remains concentrated in Central and Inner London 20

Market Position – London venues continue to lead 22

Food Orientation – London dominates in the foodservice offer 24

Travel – Retail continues to grow in importance within travel hubs 26

Fashion Position – Spitalfields paves the way for progressive retailers 28

Age Position – Carnaby Street attracts the youngest consumers 29

Tourist Venues – Travel hubs lead the way 30

Internationalisation – Regent Street is a destination for international retailers 31

Regional Analysis – Many regions continue to be under-shopped 32

Order VENUESCORE 2017 34

About Javelin Group 35

Javelin Group is a trading name of Accenture (UK) Limited | www.javelingroup.com | Copyright © 2017 Accenture. All Rights Reserved.

VENUESCORE™ 2017 provides retailers, brands, property developers and owners with an up-to-date, straightforward tool for understanding some of the key differences between shopping venues across the UK such as scale of offer, market positioning, fashionability and age positioning.

VENUESCORE is Javelin Group’s annual ranking of the UK’s retail venues (including town centres, standalone malls, retail warehouse parks and factory outlet centres).

VENUESCORE is one of a series of proprietary location insight datasets created by Javelin Group to help clients (including retailers, brands, local authorities, private equity, shopping centre owners and investors) to understand the full potential of their retail property assets and to shape these in response to the structural changes that are delivering a seismic shift to the UK’s retail landscape.

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 03 | CHAPTER ONE | INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION 1


JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 04 | CHAPTER ONE | INTRODUCTION

For retailers and brands trading nationally, and across a range of different location types, the development of an effective 'shape of chain' strategy requires the segmentation of the store estate so that the performance of outlets trading in venues of similar retail status can be better understood, and potential new store opportunities can be benchmarked in this context.

For shopping centre developers and investors, an understanding of the retail hierarchy in an area, overlaid with consumer spending dynamics, helps to highlight opportunities for new development and/or tenant requirements for existing schemes.

For private equity investors, a clear vision of the UK retail landscape can help evaluate the deliverability of roll-out plans and store performance assumptions presented as part of investment theses.

For local authorities, a clear understanding of the hierarchy of retail venues within the area can help to determine trends in multiple occupancy, establish strategic priorities for future investment and provide the core input for area benchmarking studies and capacity assessments.


JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 05 | CHAPTER TWO | METHODOLOGY

VENUESCORE 2017 is a dataset comprising 3,295 individual multiple retailer fascias trading nationwide in April 2016 from over 126,184 stores (using raw data supplied by Retail Locations).

The retail offer of each shopping venue in the UK is evaluated using a straightforward and transparent scoring system, reflecting its relative consumer appeal.

Retailer Scoring

VENUESCORE 2017 evaluates each venue in terms of its provision of multiple retailers – including anchor stores, fashion operators, and non-fashion multiples. The sectors covered include foodservice, which in recent years has become increasingly integrated in helping to define and differentiate successful retail offers, as well as all comparison and convenience-based product sectors.

2METHODOLOGY



The score attached to each operator is weighted to reflect its overall impact on shopping patterns. For example, anchor stores (e.g. John Lewis, Marks & Spencer, Selfridges) receive a higher score than unit stores. The resulting aggregate score for each venue is called its VENUESCORE.

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)

Classification Illustrative example retailers VENUESCORE

Premier Department Store Harrods, Selfridges (London) 50

Major Department Store Harvey Nichols, John Lewis 30

Premier Variety Stores Ikea 15

Hypermarkets Tesco Extra, Asda Supercentre 10

Department Store Chains Debenhams, House of Fraser 10

Supermarkets Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Asda, Waitrose 8

Variety Stores Dunnes, Beales 4

Local Anchors Marks & Spencer 4

Destination Speciality B&Q, Next, Toys R Us 3

Clothing Destination TK Maxx, Abercrombie & Fitch 3

Multiple Clothing Retailers H&M, Topshop, New Look, River Island 2

Leisure Goods Destination Halfords, Hobbycraft, Sports Direct 2

Other Multiple Retailers 99p Stores, Clarks, JD Sports 1



Venues are defined using a common-sense approach, which describes the retail offer as a single venue where there is a concentration of stores that shoppers consider part of the same walkable shopping offer.


Venue Definitions

Venue definitions have been fully updated in VENUESCORE 2017, reflecting the evolving status and extent of the UK’s commercial centres.

The area defined for each retail venue uses a common-sense approach, which describes the retail offer as one venue where there is a concentration of stores that shoppers would consider as part of the same 'walkable' shopping offer. To illustrate:

• Example 1: In central Cambridge, the area around the Grafton Centre shopping mall is defined as a distinct retail venue separate from Cambridge, Centre, which comprises Grand Arcade, Lion Yard, Petty Cury etc. This is because (a) although both offers are located in the centre of Cambridge, the retail offer is not continuous from one area to the other and (b) shoppers will generally shop in one area or the other as part of one shopping trip, and when they shop both they might generally travel from one to the other either by car or public transport.

• Example 2: In central Glasgow, Argyle Street and Sauciehall Street are both allocated to one venue Glasgow, Centre despite being some distance apart. This is because (a) the retail offer is relatively unbroken from one end of Sauciehall Street right through to the far end of Trongate and (b) a proportion of shoppers would visit both extremes of the retail offer as part of one shopping trip.

• Example 3: In Warrington, the town centre offer including the Golden Square shopping centre and the Cockhedge Retail Park is allocated to the same retail venue Warrington, Centre – although it is then also possible to assess Cockhedge Retail Park as a distinct zone within the Warrington, Centre venue.

• Exceptions: In London, the retail offer of the West End (e.g. Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden, Bond Street, Carnaby Street) is broken down into constituent offers for the purposes of venue ranking – although London, West End, London, Midtown and London, City can also be assessed as aggregates of their constituent retail venues.

The Grafton Centre, Cambridge

Venue Scoring

The VENUESCORE for each location is created by combining the retailer scoring matrix (described on page 6) within the venue’s area definition, and therefore reflects the presence and importance of the multiple retailers trading in each venue.

The resulting VENUESCORE rankings generally correlate closely with the actual market sizes of these shopping venues (in terms of consumer spending). However, there are some notable exceptions. For example, the mega-malls such as Trafford Centre, Bluewater and Meadowhall will tend to generate spending levels that are well in excess of their relative VENUESCORE. The same is true of several London venues, with Oxford Street and the two Westfield schemes the most notable outliers to this rule.

London city centre venues are defined as distinct aggregate venues to reflect their true status as powerful city centre offers in their own right. For example, London, West End combines Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden and others, London, Midtown combines Holborn, Clerkenwell, Finsbury and others and London, City combines Bank, Moorgate, Liverpool Street and others.



Westfield Shopping Centre, London

Venue Attributes

In addition to its VENUESCORE, each location is assessed in terms of a range of other attributes, including:

• Market positioning Is the offer aspirational or down-market?

• Age focus Is the offer targeting younger or older consumers?

• Fashion focus How dominant is the venue’s clothing offer?

• Fashionability of its offer Is the clothing offer traditional or progressive?

• Foodservice bias How strong is the food and beverage offer?

• Comparison vs. convenience bias

• Anchor strength How much of the overall score for each venue is delivered by major anchors (e.g. department stores, variety stores, supermarkets?)

• Shopping centre vs. high street dominance Is there a powerful mall offer?

These characteristics are described in the Findings section on page 10.

In the data tables that support VENUESCORE 2017, venues are ranked as follows:

• National ranking

• Alphabetical ranking (by town)

• Rankings by region

• Rankings by local authority

• MALLSCORE – Separate rankings for purpose-built shopping centres, retail parks, outlet centres and transport hubs in the UK


This year, Javelin Group has further refined its VENUESCORE methodology and added an additional 313+ venues to the rankings (down to Minor Local level). Refinements include changes to the geographic definition of certain retail venues and some changes to the underlying scoring system. Furthermore, an additional 128 multiple retailers are included. This partly reflects the continuing importance of foodservice multiples (e.g. Benugo, Joe & The Juice and CAU) but also new and interesting retailers (e.g. Kiko Milano and American Eagle Outfitters).


JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 10 | CHAPTER THREE | FINDINGS

Location GradesLeading 180 venues represent ~24% of UK’s total VENUESCORE

VENUESCORE establishes eight principal grades of town centre/mall retail venue in the UK for town centres and malls, ranging from the 19 Major City locations such as Manchester city centre through to 1,800+ Local shopping venues such as Alexandria and Wick. In addition, there are a further 19,000+ venues across the country defined as Minor Local that are not shown in the table below.

The leading 180 venues (e.g. Major City, Major Regional and Regional grades) represent nearly one-quarter of the nation’s total combined VENUESCORE. This increases to over forty percent when the Sub-Regional and Major District grades are included. These larger venues capture an even greater share of consumer spending than is indicated purely based on VENUESCORE.

VENUESCORE establishes eight principal grades of retail venue in the UK, ranging from Major City to Local status retail offers.

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)NB. All venues scoring less than 10 are classified by Javelin Group as Minor Local

The following pages summarise key findings from the data analysis from VENUESCORE 2017.

FINDINGS 3

Location Grade Illustrative example venues

VENUESCORE range

# of Locations Cumulative #

Major City Manchester to Bath 350+ 19 19

Major Regional Sheffield to Harrogate 230-349 37 56

Regional Swindon to Chesterfield 135-229 121 177

Sub-Regional Crewe to Stevenage 75-134 198 375

Major District Aldershot to Woodbridge 50-74 243 618

District Bakewell to Street 30-49 491 1,109

Minor District Padstow to Prescot 20-29 514 1,623

Local Alexandria to Ventnor 10-19 1,814 3,437


Top Shopping VenuesManchester pips Glasgow to the post London, West End clearly stands some distance above any other city centre in terms of the scale of its retail offer (with a VENUESCORE that is more than double that of its next nearest rival Manchester).

However, London, West End can also be considered as a number of separate (albeit interlinked) retail venues (e.g. Oxford Street, Regent Street, Covent Garden), with VENUESCORE providing the opportunity to assess the capital from both perspectives. (Other characteristics of London’s retail offer are described later).

Manchester’s retail offer continues to strengthen year on year, now ranking first (excluding London) due to a greatly improved retail offer. For example, the opening of itsu, Michael Kors, Joe & The Juice and Smiggle. John Lewis, Tommy Hilfiger, Hackett and Anthropologie are just a few names in the newly opened Victoria Gate development in Leeds which sees Leeds climb into third place.

Croydon has fallen out of the top 20 UK retail venues (-6%). In the 1960s the Whitgift Centre was the first and largest covered shopping development in London, but regeneration in Croydon is now required for it to climb back up the retail rankings. The Croydon Partnership, a joint venture between Westfield and Hammerson, will help deliver retail regeneration to the centre.

London’s West End is the UK’s leading shopping destination with a VENUESCORE of 1,625 – more than double the UK’s next largest retail hub (Manchester Centre).



Rank Venue VENUESCORE % change Rank Venue VENUESCORE %

change

London, West End 1,625 1%

London, City 823 2%

1 Manchester 780 2% 11 Aberdeen 443 -5%

2 Glasgow 776 -4% 12 Bristol 412 -2%

3 Leeds 659 3% 13 Norwich 403 -2%

4 Birmingham 640 -7% 14 Leicester 394 -2%

5 Liverpool 548 -1% 15 Reading 393 -4%

6 Cardiff 516 1% 16 Belfast 388 -5%

7 Brighton 503 -3% 17 Kingston upon Thames 382 -3%

8 Nottingham 500 -4% 18 Bath 363 -2%

9 Edinburgh 498 -3% 19 Sheffield 338 -3%

10 Newcastle upon Tyne 450 -2% 20 Southampton 338 -5%



Major MoversJohn Lewis’s opening increases Chelmsford’s retail rank by 23 places

In the UK’s top 200 retail venues, Chelmsford’s retail ranking has greatly benefitted from the opening of Bond Street. Chelmsford has achieved Major Regional status thanks to this development. John Lewis, The White Company and Prezzo are just some of the retailers now open on Bond Street and the second phase (coming soon) will see Chelmsford climb even higher.

Since its opening in November 2015, Newport has continued to rise up the rankings with new openings at Friars Walk such as Apple, Nando’s and Sketchers to complement the existing retail offer.


Highest Climbers Place Change (+/-) Biggest Fallers Place

Change (+/-) Top 100 Venues

1 Chelmsford +23 Ipswich -13

2 Regent Street +13 Carlisle -12

3 Newport (Gwent) +13 Stoke-on-Trent -11

4 Chichester +8 Hereford -8

5 Canterbury +7 Doncaster -7

6 Cheshire Oaks FO/Coliseum RP +6 Wolverhampton -7

7 Warrington +6 Uxbridge -6

8 Windsor +5 Middlesborough -5

9 Blackpool +5 Derby -4

10 Swindon +5 Chester -4

Venues Ranked 101-200

1 Belgravia +6 Wrexham -29

2 Silverburn (Glasgow) +6 Braehead SC -21

3 Angel +5 Wood Green -20

4 Dunfermline +5 Stevenage -20

5 Andover +5 Slough -16

6 Walthamstow +3 Banbury -16

7 Bexleyheath +3 Horsham -16

8 Winchester +3 Stockton-on-Tees -14

9 Inverness +3 Bedford -14

10 Bury St Edmunds +2 East Kilbride -13



Ipswich has fallen 13 places in its retail ranking due to the closure of some key stores including Next, Laura Ashley and Blacks. Similarly, Carlisle’s retail position has fallen as a result of closures such as Mountain Warehouse, Mothercare and Miss Selfridge.

Westgate in Oxford, scheduled to open in autumn 2017, will see Oxford climb up the top 100 retail rankings. Ted Baker, John Lewis and Next are just some of the confirmed brands set to open in this new scheme.

Oxford, UK


Top 20 Shopping CentresWestfield continues to dominate

MALLSCORE represents the VENUESCORE of purpose-built shopping centres (malls, retail parks or factory outlet centres). Isolating the scores of these centres allows them to be ranked on a consistent basis, whether or not they are part of a wider retail offer (such as Liverpool One within Liverpool, Centre).

The top of the mall rankings shown on page 15 is dominated by standalone regional mega-malls. Westfield London remains the number one ranked shopping centre in the UK and is the premier scheme in terms of its aspirational market positioning – as evidenced by its Value-Luxury Index* (see page 16) of 140. Westfield Stratford’s retail provision has strengthened when compared to Westfield London and Bluewater, which have both experienced decline (-4% and -3% respectively). There are signs of stress at Arndale Centre, intu Merry Hill, and The Centre:MK; all of which have seen retail supply in decline.



Bullring, Birmingham

Festival Place has fallen out of the top 20 shopping centres and has been replaced by The Mall at Cribbs Causeway (9% decline in supply). Cribbs Causeway has seen many new openings, such as Kiko Milano, Kurt Geiger and Smiggle (1% increase in provision).

When analysing the presence of multiple retailers, the large majority of malls listed below are appearing to experience a decline in provision since last year. However, new retail and catering entrants into the UK market with only one store are not captured in the analysis, and therefore, this downward trend is better explained by the opening of new international retailers rather than store closures. For example, R.M.Williams (an Australian brand selling leather goods) and The Meat Co. have recently opened in Westfield London.




*The Value-Luxury Index reflects the relative market position orientation of a venue where 100 defines the average UK retail venue. Scores above 100 reflect an aspirational bias; scores below 100 reflect an orientation towards the discount/value end of the market.

Rank Scheme Town MALLSCORE Value-Luxury index (avg=100)

1 Westfield London London 328 140

2 Westfield Stratford City London 325 126

3 Bluewater Greenhithe 324 130

4 intu Trafford Centre Manchester 316 122

5 Meadowhall Sheffield 293 120

6 intu Lakeside Grays 250 112

7 intu Metrocentre Gateshead 249 108

8 St Davids Centre Cardiff 236 121

9 intu Merry Hill Brierley Hill 219 102

10 Arndale Centre Manchester 215 108

11 Liverpool One Liverpool 213 120

12 intu Derby Derby 210 101

13 Canary Wharf London 210 136

14 Bullring Birmingham 209 124

15 The Centre:MK Milton Keynes 194 113

16 intu Eldon Square Newcastle 183 112

17 Brent Cross London 180 130

18 Whitefriars Canterbury 174 114

19 Highcross Leicester 174 118

20 The Mall at Cribbs Causeway Bristol 169 123

Top Retail ParksFort Kinnard climbs the retail rankings

Once again, The Fort, Glasgow remains the UK’s leading retail park destination with recent openings including Wagamama, Pandora and Fat Face. However, Fort Kinnaird’s retail offer has notably strengthened over the past year (13% growth). Fort Kinnard has developed its food and beverage offer opening eight new restaurants including Chiquitos and Five Guys.



The Fort, Glasgow

Rank Scheme Town MALLSCORE % change

1 The Fort Glasgow 111 4%

2 Fort Kinnaird Edinburgh 106 13%

3 Middlebook Horwich 100 6%

4 Teesside Thornaby 97 -1%

5 Parc Trostre Llanelli 89 2%

6 Castlepoint Bournemouth 85 -2%

7 Retail World Parkgate Rotherham 79 -5%

8 Whiteley Village Fareham 80 5%

9 Ventura Tamworth 75 0%

10 Pentland Loanhead 73 -4%


Top Factory Outlet CentresCheshire Oaks defends its title

Cheshire Oaks remains ahead of any other factory outlet by scale. Bicester Village (ranking sixth) continues to offer the most differentiated aspirational brand mix by some margin with a Value-Luxury Index of 178 – a positioning above London’s Knightsbridge! Brands such as Alexander McQueen, Fendi and Gucci are just some of the impressive brands at Bicester Village contributing to its very high Luxury score.



Rank Scheme MALLSCORE Value-Luxury index (avg=100)

1 Cheshire Oaks Designer Outlet 133 143

2 York Designer Outlet 115 140

3 Gunwharf Quays 114 139

4 Bridgend Designer Outlet 99 125

5 Swindon Designer Outlet 94 137

6 Bicester Village 91 178

7 Ashford Designer Outlet 84 140

8 Freeport Village Braintree 81 132

9 Livingston Designer Outlet 80 128

10 Junction 32 77 118


Bicester Village, Oxford

Dominant City CentresConurbation performance is unchanged

The extent to which the city centre offer of the UK’s largest major cities dominates each conurbation's wider retail market is assessed below, as well as the extent to which each conurbation appears to be relatively over- or under-shopped.

The picture painted is varied, ranging from London and Birmingham at one extreme where the city centre offer represents a relatively small part of each wider conurbation's total offer (under 12%); to the dominant city centre offers of Kingston, Leeds and York (33%+).

At the conurbation level, VENUESCOREs have not changed dramatically due to a lack of major retail developments. Liverpool, Southampton and Sheffield have the lowest overall provision of multiple retail relative to their affluence-weighted populations (i.e. thereby appearing relatively under-shopped) when compared against this set of major conurbations, whilst York and Milton Keynes are at the opposite extreme.


Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)(*) The Index shown here is inversed whereby a high score indicates a potential relative over-provision of retail.

Rank ConurbationConurbation

Population (000)

Affluence Index

(avg=100)

Conurbation VENUESCORE

Weighted Population per

VENUESCORE point

Under- / over-shopped

index (avg=100)

City Centre VENUESCORE

City Centre as % of

conurbation

1 Greater London 7,913 108 24,875 345 140 2,817 11%

2 Greater Birmingham 2,327 95 5,863 376 128 640 11%

3 Greater Manchester 1,266 98 4,358 285 169 780 18%

4 Greater Glasgow 1,013 95 3,493 276 174 776 22%

5 Tyneside 642 92 2,152 274 175 450 21%

6 Bristol 1,129 104 1,996 591 81 412 21%

7 Edinburgh 969 108 1,878 555 87 498 27%

8 Liverpool 1,311 92 1,797 671 72 548 30%

9 Leeds 1,069 98 1,743 601 80 659 38%

10 Greater Nottingham 587 100 1,729 340 142 500 29%

11 Belfast 741 112 1,407 590 82 388 28%

12 Sheffield 940 96 1,374 656 73 338 25%

13 Cardiff 546 107 1,332 440 109 516 39%

14 Leicester 853 100 1,180 724 66 394 33%

15 Southampton 753 103 1,148 674 71 338 29%

16 Kingston upon Hull 633 92 983 594 81 382 39%

17 Portsmouth 597 95 974 585 82 180 18%

18 Milton Keynes 222 105 939 250 193 294 31%

19 Stoke-on-Trent 286 94 902 298 161 203 23%

20 York 152 104 900 177 272 320 36%


Malls vs. High StreetsDominance of malls is a regional trend

The role played by shopping centres in the UK’s leading venues now ranges from only 10% of the offer in central London up to 80% in Bristol. Whilst the uneven nature of shopping centre distribution across these leading retail venues partially reflects the specific configuration and opportunities available for development, it nevertheless suggests that additional mall development might be possible in areas such as Sheffield and Bath.


Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)(*) Total MALLSCORE of Shopping Centres only(**) London here defined as London, City, London, Mid-town and London, West End

The importance of shopping centres in the UK’s leading retail venues is reflected by the proportion of the total offer accounted for by malls within the UK’s top 20 venues.

Rank Venue VENUESCORE MALLSCORE (*) Mall Dominance (%)

Central London (**) 2,817 281 10%

1 Manchester 780 310 40%

2 Glasgow 776 292 38%

3 Birmingham 640 482 75%

4 Leeds 659 417 63%

5 Liverpool 548 328 60%

6 Cardiff 516 309 60%

7 Brighton 503 114 23%

8 Nottingham 500 191 38%

9 Edinburgh 498 172 35%

10 Newcastle upon Tyne 450 243 54%

11 Aberdeen 443 263 59%

12 Bristol 412 328 80%

13 Norwich 403 159 39%

14 Leicester 394 220 56%

15 Reading 393 195 50%

16 Belfast 388 182 47%

17 Kingston upon Thames 382 131 34%

18 Bath 363 101 28%

19 Sheffield 338 77 23%

20 Southampton 338 207 61%


Eden Centre, High Wycombe

London FocusSpending remains concentrated in Central and Inner London

Central London’s retail offer has a clear focus on upscale retail. This is exemplified by the Value-Luxury Index scores that are well above 100 for the vast majority of central London venues (defined as venues that make up London, West End, London, City and London, Midtown).

In Inner London (definitions here are based on borough boundaries), the Westfield shopping centres lead the way, followed by Docklands, Kings Road, Hammersmith and Camden Town.

In Outer London, Kingston, Croydon, Bromley and Romford stand out as the capital’s major suburban destinations.


Assessed as aggregates of their constituent parts, London’s West End, City and Midtown offers would rank 1st, 2nd and 19th respectively in the national VENUESCORE rankings.


Bond Street, London


Rank Venue VENUESCORE% Change

vs. 2015-16 VENUESCORE

National Rank

Value-Luxury Index

(Avg=100)

Fashion Position (Avg=100)

TOURISTSCORE

London, West End 1,625 0% 125 125 510

London, City 823 2% 127 105 151

London, Midtown 369 4% 121 110 62

Central London, Top 10 Venues

1 Oxford Street 497 -1% 10 121 118 125

2 Covent Garden 313 -1% 30 136 119 106

3 Knightsbridge 279 -2% 41 171 125 157

4 Regent Street 187 1% 94 147 111 73

5 Angel 165 4% 134 116 122 30

6 Kings Cross/St Pancras 139 9% 167 127 105 44

7 Belgravia 125 5% 192 109 109 28

8 Victoria 117 4% 205 119 96 20

9 London Bridge 103 -6% 244 118 114 22

10 Cheapside 102 -6% 246 133 110 26

Inner London, Top 10 Venues

1 Westfield London SC 328 -4% 23 140 116 102

2 Westfield Stratford City SC 327 4% 26 126 117 78

3 Docklands 229 0% 57 133 108 64

4 Kings Road 210 -1% 72 145 123 42

5 Camden Town 168 -1% 128 106 122 26

6 Clapham Junction 167 0% 130 110 105 30

7 Hammersmith 167 -2% 130 103 103 25

8 Kensington 165 -1% 134 125 116 42

9 Putney 156 -4% 144 111 106 25

10 Wandsworth 139 9% 170 106 114 28

Outer London, Top 10 Venues

1 Kingston upon Thames 382 -3% 18 120 110 86

2 Croydon 328 -6% 23 100 104 42

3 Bromley 286 -3% 38 112 109 60

4 Romford 258 -5% 45 95 102 30

5 Watford 254 -5% 47 105 104 43

6 Sutton 199 -5% 82 97 101 23

7 Harrow 184 -3% 98 96 101 25

8 Uxbridge 183 -5% 100 101 104 26

9 Richmond upon Thames 184 -1% 98 132 116 43

10 Brent Cross SC 180 -4% 102 130 111 37


London's top 10 venues


Market PositionLondon venues continue to lead

As the largest and most differentiated non-food spending sector, the fashion offer is often key for consumers when choosing a particular shopping venue. It is important for retailers to understand how venues differ in terms of market positioning (e.g. quality/price) in order to find the optimum locations for their format.

The Market Position Index provides a useful guide for distinguishing between shopping venues based upon their relative positioning along a spectrum running from Value to Luxury (as illustrated below). The fashion offer (together with some easily classifiable operators from other categories) is used to profile each venue.

Each venue has an estimated average market position score based on the retailers present, with the Market Position Index for each venue then calculated by comparing the venue’s market position score against the average for all venues (down to Major District grade).


Value Discount

Focus

Luxury Upscale Appeal

The Market Position Index provides a useful guide for distinguishing between shopping venues based upon their relative positioning along a spectrum from Value to Luxury.


Major District status venues and above with the strongest bias towards either the upper or lower end of the market position spectrum are shown below. Upscale venues are dominated by central London – providing six of the 10 most upscale offers. Three of the UK’s top 10 Luxury locations are occupied by terminals at Heathrow Airport (T2, T3 and T5).

At the other end of the spectrum, Wythenshawe, Belle Vale and Grays are defined as the UK’s most downmarket retail venues.



Value (most downmarket) Rank Luxury

(most upmarket)

Wythenshawe 1 Bond Street

Belle Vale (Liverpool) 2 Bicester Village FO

Grays 3 Knightsbridge

Salford SC 4 Marylebone

Lower Edmonton 5 Heathrow T3

Leith (Edinburgh) 6 Heathrow T5

Peterlee 7 Heathrow T2

Erdington (Birmingham) 8 Regent Street

Castleford 9 Kings Road

Motherwell 10 Hamptstead

Ellesmere Port 11 Portobello Road

Blyth 12 York Designer Outlet FO

Huyton (Liverpool) 13 Westfield London SC

Boscombe 14 Carnaby Street

Rotherham 15 Ashford Designer FO

Longton (Stoke-on-Trent) 16 Swindon Designer Outlet FO

Dudley 17 Gunwharf Quays FO

Aberdare 18 Covent Garden

Kings Heath (Birmingham) 19 Gatwick South

Wallasey 20 Cheshire Oaks FO


Food OrientationLondon dominates in the foodservice offer

Successful shopping venues are no longer solely defined by the strength of the retail offer available to consumers – an integrated foodservice offer (often referred to as F&B) has now become a key value driver and an increasingly important component of the venue’s overall ‘brand proposition’.

There are several reasons that underpin this trend, including the surge in private equity investment in fast-growth foodservice operators and the subsequent fast-tracked roll-out of new outlets, the relative immunity of foodservice from the growth of online shopping, and also the rise of leisure activities and eating out as an increasingly essential part of any shopping or leisure trip for consumers.

The casual dining sector has experienced rapid growth globally over the past few years, a trend anticipated to continue. There remains a great opportunity for casual dining operators to roll-out an increasing number of stores across the UK and across a variety of venue types. Byron, CAU and Wahaca provide a good testament to this trend with an ever increasing number of stores. For instance, Wahaca’s store estate has increased by more than 30% over the last year.


An integrated foodservice offer has now become a key value driver and an increasingly important component of the venue’s overall ‘brand proposition’.


In Tier 1 venues (~60 Major City and Major Regional destinations), Covent Garden has the most food orientated offer. F&B makes up 40% of Covent Garden’s total retail offer with foodservice operators such as Benugo, Bill’s and Jamie Oliver’s. Conversely, Darlington has the weakest F&B offer, with only 11% of units dedicated to foodservice operators highlighting an opportunity to develop its catering offer. Manchester, Oxford and Brighton lead the way outside of London.

In Tier 2 venues (>300 Regional and Sub-Regional destinations), Soho has the strongest foodservice offer (~70% of its retail offer). Honest Burger, Joe & The Juice and Busaba Eathai are just a few of the caterers contributing to Soho’s strong F&B performance. Interestingly, in Tier 2 venues, all of the top 10 most food orientated destinations are London based. London is by far the most advanced region in terms of F&B provision.


Tier Rank Most food orientated venue Least food orientated venue

Tier 1

Major City + Major Regional

1 Covent Garden Darlington2 Manchester Harrogate3 Oxford Livingston4 Brighton Knightsbridge5 Leeds The Trafford Centre SC/Barton Square6 Newcastle upon Tyne Solihull7 Cardiff Hull8 Bristol Meadowhall SC9 Reading Chelmsford

10 Birmingham Westfield London SC

Tier 2

Regional + Sub-Regional

1 Soho Nuneaton2 London Bridge Falkirk3 Paddington Corby4 Holborn Buxton5 Belgravia Cwmbran6 Ludgate Hill Ashford Designer FO7 Spitalfields Accrington8 Baker Street Coleraine9 Strand Birkenhead

10 Cannon Street Cribbs Causeway SC



Covent Garden, London

TravelRetail continues to grow in importance within travel hubs

Although shopping in travel hubs is not the primary function, these destinations are of growing importance to retailers and travel hub operators alike. Retail offers within smaller railway stations in particular are primarily focused towards convenience-led retailers, concentrating on food-to-go and items for use on the journey to cater for frequent and time-poor passengers. Airport environments on the other hand provide an opportunity for retailers to take advantage of a captured audience with longer dwell times, with the flying population also more affluent than the average UK population.

Of the UK’s largest airports, Heathrow T3, T4 and T5 have the most premium market position, well above expected levels for a retail offer of its size. T3 and T4 are hubs for long haul international travel and the main terminals for passengers travelling to and from BRIC nations dealing with ~26 million passengers per annum. Meanwhile, T5 is the home of the national flag carrier, British Airways. T5 passengers have a high spending power, hence retailers such as Burberry, Gucci and Cartier are suitable. Other termini, such as Gatwick and many of the regional airports, have strengthened their commercial proposition to cater more towards a low cost carrier focussed passenger mix.

Airport retail is a strong opportunity for retailers, as operators have a detailed understanding – and more importantly data – of the passenger profile passing through, allowing for a targeted retail offer to be developed.


Airport retail is a strong opportunity for retailers, as operators have a detailed understanding of the passenger profile, allowing for a targeted retail offer to be developed.


St Pancras’s market orientation is well above all other rail destinations as its function differs hugely. Its role, and retail offer, is more alike to that of an airport due to the significant number of international passengers using the Eurostar to international destinations (leading to longer dwell time), which is reflected in its more up-market retail offer.

Following the recent redevelopment, London Waterloo, Liverpool Street and Kings Cross have strengthened the market position of their retail offer. This indicates the potential for other rail termini with a similar user profile to follow suit.





St Pancras Station

Victoria Rail Station

Liverpool St Rail StationWaterloo Rail StationEuston Rail Station

Paddington Rail StationKings Cross Rail Station

Piccadilly Rail StationLeeds Rail StationCentral Rail Station

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140

MAL

LSCO

RE

Market Position

LHR Terminal 5

LHR Terminal 3LGW South TerminalStansted Airport

LGW North TerminalBirmingham AirportLHR Terminal 2 LHR Terminal 4

MAN Terminal 1

Luton AirportEdinburgh AirportGlasgow AirportMAN Terminal 2

Newcastle Airport MAN Terminal 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

MAL

LSCO

RE

Market Position

Fashion PositionSpitalfields paves the way for progressive retailers

In assessing the relative 'fashionability' of shopping venues, a similar approach is used as that described in the Market Position section, assessing fashion retailers across a spectrum running from progressive through to traditional. London destinations dominate as the most progressive venues as the city is seen as the ideal location for flagship stores and first stores for international brands making their first foray into the UK. Spitalfields has climbed into the top 10, now ranking as the most progressive UK venue, whereas Bridport in Dorset is the most traditional venue.



Traditional Rank Progressive

Bridport 1 SpitalfieldsLlandudno 2 Portobello Road

Market Harborough 3 Bond StreetSevenoaks 4 Knightsbridge

Marlborough 5 HampsteadBrentwood 6 Kings Road

Southsea 7 AngelPenrith 8 Camden Town

Farnham 9 MaryleboneEltham 10 Carnaby Street

Spitalfields has climbed into the top 10, now ranking as the most progressive UK venue, whereas Bridport in Dorset is the most traditional venue.


Spitalfields Market, London

Age PositionCarnaby Street attracts the youngest consumers

By identifying those multiple retailers with particularly strong young (e.g. Hollister, H&M, Miss Selfridge, Blue Inc., Game, Base Menswear) or old (e.g. Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Evans) orientation, it is possible to compare venues based on their overall appeal to different age cohorts.

Venues such as Bangor (Wales) and Carnaby Street have a relatively young retail focus. A large number of these top 10 ‘young’ venues host universities, accounting for the youthful orientation of the retail offer. Carnaby Street and Oxford Street are at the forefront of innovative retail which attract unique and new retailers appealing to younger shoppers.

Meanwhile, venues with the strongest bias towards older shoppers include provincial market towns such as Marlborough, Nantwich and Stamford whereby the retail offer within the venue reflects the age orientation of its catchment.



Oldest Rank Youngest

Marlborough 1 Bangor (Wales)

Nantwich 2 Carnaby Street

Stamford 3 East Kilbride

Sevenoaks 4 Oxford Street

Saffron Walden 5 Dunfermline

Lymington 6 Wandsworth

Ringwood 7 Enfield

Dorchester 8 Bexleyheath

Chichester 9 Swansea

Stratford-upon-Avon 10 Hinckley


Carnaby Street, London

Tourist VenuesTravel hubs lead the way

Knightsbridge and Bicester Village Factory Outlet provide the greatest mix of retailers appealing to the tourist shopper. Of the top 10 ranking tourist venues, travel hubs account for three, including London Heathrow T3 and T5 along with Gatwick South. These travel hub venues host many retailers attractive to tourists such as Fortnum & Mason, Gucci and Salvatore Ferragamo.


Rank Venue TOURISTSCORE Index (Avg=100)

1 Knightsbridge 479

2 Bicester Village FO 426

3 Heathrom T5 426

4 Bond Street 410

5 Piccadilly 393

6 Heathrow T3 359

7 Gatwick Airport South 350

8 Carnaby Street 343

9 Regent Street 333

10 Gunwharf Quays FO 317



Knightsbridge, London

InternationalisationRegent Street is a destination for international retailers

Looking at the theme of non-domestic influences from another perspective, the orientation of the UK venues towards incoming foreign brands offers an additional insight into their perceived status within the UK retail hierarchy.

Using Javelin Group's GLOBALSCORE Index, Regent Street is the most globally orientated venue in the UK, with 36% of its total multiple provision accounted for by international retailer brands. Of the 20 most globally oriented venues in the UK, six are located in central London, including Regent Street and Knightsbridge. Cheshire Oaks and Bluewater are the only non-London venues with the highest GLOBALSCORE.



Rank Top 20 of leading 100 Javelin Venues VENUESCORE GLOBALSCORE GLOBALSCORE % of VENUESCORE

GLOBALSCORE Index

1 Regent Street 202 72 36% 273

2 Westfield London SC 347 108 31% 235

3 Knightsbridge 286 80 28% 196

4 Westfield Stratford City SC 336 88 26% 190

5 Brent Cross SC 187 46 25% 191

6 Cheshire Oaks FO/Coliseum RP 204 49 24% 191

7 Bluewater SC 343 74 22% 169

8 Oxford Street 535 114 21% 183

9 Covent Garden 322 68 21% 169

10 The Trafford Centre SC/Barton Square 321 62 19% 145

11 Belfast 433 80 18% 184

12 Meadowhall SC 315 58 18% 162

13 Metrocentre SC 268 47 18% 154

14 Kingston upon Thames 401 70 17% 151

15 Kings Road 224 38 17% 124

16 Lakeside SC 272 45 17% 149

17 Southampton 358 59 16% 162

18 Brighton 522 84 16% 138

19 Bromley 306 49 16% 153

20 Basingstoke 240 37 15% 134


Regional AnalysisMany regions continue to be under-shopped

The table below summarises the overall characteristics of the retail supply available nationally across the UK regions.

The table also includes an assessment of the extent to which multiple retail penetrates different UK regions by comparing resident population (weighted for affluence) against each region’s aggregate VENUESCORE.

The ratio of Weighted Population per VENUESCORE Point identifies London, the East Midlands, the East of England as the UK’s most under-supplied regions (relative to their spend-weighted populations), whilst the North East and North West appear to be the most multiple-penetrated areas. The North East is a major over-shopped outlier relative to all other UK regions.

Source: Javelin Group (VENUESCORE 2017)The Index shown here is inversed whereby a high score indicates a potential over-provision of retail.


Region Total VENUESCORE

Value-Luxury index

(avg=100)Population

(000)Affluence

index (avg=100)

Weighted Population per

VENUESCORE Point

Under- / over-shopped index

(avg=100)

Total UK 175,281 100 63,182 100 360 100

East Midlands 11,327 93 4,563 96 387 93

East of England 15,449 100 5,878 102 388 93

London 24,048 111 8,148 123 417 86

North East 7,336 92 2,591 79 279 129

North West 19,419 94 7,059 89 324 111

Northern Ireland 4,823 97 1,811 97 364 99

Scotland 15,980 95 5,326 102 340 106

South East 24,586 104 8,698 108 382 94

South West 15,609 103 5,277 109 369 98

Wales/Cymru 8,579 94 3,045 91 323 112

West Midlands 14,444 94 5,594 91 352 102

Yorkshire and The Humber 13,681 98 5,252 86 330 109


The table below shows the proportion of the total retail offer provided by foodservice at a regional level.

There is huge variation between regions, with London’s foodservice provision the highest in the UK, whereas for Northern Ireland, foodservice is less than 10% of the total (based on multiple operator provision).

These differentials indicate the scale of category shift that could occur across the UK regions in the coming years as foodservice (combined with other Leisure operators) becomes an increasingly important component of the nation’s multiple retail offer.



Region Total VENUESCORE

Total FOODSCORE

FOODSCORE as % of total

Total UK 175,281 26,970 15%

East Midlands 11,327 1,632 14%

East of England 15,449 2,143 14%

London 24,048 6,113 25%

North East 7,336 873 12%

North West 19,419 3,085 16%

Northern Ireland 4,823 442 9%

Scotland 15,980 1,797 11%

South East 24,586 3,722 15%

South West 15,609 2,155 14%

Wales/Cymru 8,579 1,122 13%

West Midlands 14,444 2,129 15%

Yorkshire and The Humber 13,681 1,757 13%


The full VENUESCORE 2017 report can be licensed annually and is delivered as an Excel spreadsheet and a Tableau dashboard.The full dataset contains the following rankings tables:

Order VENUESCORE 2017

To order your copy of the full VENUESCORE 2017 dataset for £1,500 + VAT, please email [email protected] and include the following information: name, position, company name to appear on invoice, company VAT number, invoice address and telephone number. Thank you for your order.

1. National ranking National rankings for the UK’s leading shopping venues (e.g. Major City to Major District grade)

2. Alphabetical ranking Full ranking of UK retail venues presented in alphabetical order (e.g. Major City to Local grade)

3. Rankings by region All venues ranked within their region (e.g. London, South East, N.Ireland)

4. Rankings by local authority Ranks all venues by local authority to assist in local retail hierarchy planning

5. MALLSCORE ranking Ranking UK shopping centres, retail parks, outlet centres and transport hubs

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 34 | ORDER VENUESCORE 2017

ORDER VENUESCORE 2017

Example tables in Tableau format.


Javelin Group, part of Accenture Strategy, provides strategy consulting and digital transformation services to the world’s leading retailers and consumer brands.

Javelin Group helps clients improve their competitiveness by anticipating and responding to the rapid changes in customer shopping habits and retail technologies. Javelin Group, which serves retail and brand leaders across Europe, North America, the Middle East and Australia, supports clients with their strategies, operations, technologies, locations and analytics. In June 2015, Javelin Group was acquired by Accenture to spearhead its capabilities in digital retail transformation within Accenture Strategy, and remains a separate but connected business unit within the firm.

Our Locations & Analytics team, which has worked with more than 210 retailers and brand clients, combines information on stores, catchments and spending with a detailed knowledge of shopping venues across Europe to advise retail companies on:

1. Roll-out potential of expanding chains2. Store portfolio review to establish investment/exit priorities3. Sales forecasting4. Site-specific evaluations for town centre and out-of-town retailers5. Catchment analysis (RETAILNATION)6. Store grading and local merchandising7. Retail store performance benchmarking (SHOPSCORE)8. Market analysis software tools (e.g. Alteryx, Tableau)9. Consumer data and segmentation

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 | PAGE 35 | ABOUT JAVELIN GROUP

ABOUT JAVELIN GROUP


Contact us

If you would like to discuss your retail locations and analytics requirements, please contact Robin Bevan, Director of Locations & Analytics practice at Javelin Group, at [email protected] or on +44 (0)20 7961 3200. For more information about Javelin Group, please visit www.javelingroup.com.

JAVELIN GROUP EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | VENUESCORE 2017 |

Copyright © 2017 Accenture. All Rights Reserved. Accenture, its logos, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture or Javelin Group. This document may make reference to trademarks that may be owned by others. If so, the use of such trademarks is not an assertion of ownership of such trademarks by Accenture and is not intended to represent or imply the existence of an association between Accenture and the lawful owners of such trademarks. All title, ownership rights and intellectual property rights in and relating to this brochure or any copies thereof including but not limited to copyright, logos, names, trademarks, service marks, design, text, sound recordings, images, links, concepts and themes are owned by Accenture and/or its subsidiaries or used under authorized licence by Accenture and or Javelin. Any reproduction, transmission, publication, performance, broadcast, alteration, license, hyperlink, creation of derivative works or other use in whole or in part in any manner without the prior written consent of the Accenture is strictly prohibited. Save and except with the prior written consent of Accenture, you shall not insert a hyperlink to this brochure or any part thereof on any other brochure or “mirror” or frame this brochure, any part thereof, or any information or materials contained in this brochure on any other server, website or webpage.


venuescore 2017 executive summary - javelin group · javelin group executive summary | venuescore...

Documents