us climate policy & global implications · 2017-02-22 · us climate policy & global...
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USClimatePolicy&GlobalImplicationsMichaelDavidsonMITJointProgramClimateChangeLectureSeriesIAP2017
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GoalsandOutlineGoals• AnhistoricalperspectiveonUSclimatepolicyunderdifferentadministrations
• Understandingofinterplaybetweendomesticandinternationalpolicydevelopments
Outline• EarlyUNFCCCandKyotoProtocol(BushI,Clinton)• Kyoto’sSuccessorandDomesticInstitutions(BushII)• Copenhagen,US-China,andClimateActionPlan(Obama)• ParisandUSinternationaltargets• Prospectsfor2020,2025andbeyond
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EarlyUNFCCC(BushI)• 1990CleanAirActamendmentstacklesseveralnewenvironmentalissuesincludingacidrain
• USsignsontoUNclimateconvention(UNFCCC)andseveralotherenvironmentaltreatiesinRio(1992)
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“TheUnitedStatesfullyintendstobetheworld'spreeminentleaderinprotectingtheglobalenvironment.”
–GeorgeH.W.Bush,1992
KyotoProtocol(Clinton)• ClintondeparturefromBush:• Agreedtobindingcommitmentstoreduceemissions(overdisagreementsamongagencies)
• “BTUtax”~maincarbonpolicy• …anddespitewarningsignsthatitwouldn’tworkpolitically• BTUtaxdefeatedearlyon
• 1993ClimateChangeActionPlan• 2000emissionsreturnto1990levels
• KyotoProtocolnegotiationsconcludedin1997,commitmentsstrictlytodevelopedcountries(Annex1)only
• Byrd-HagelSenateresolution(1997):treatymustrequiredevelopingcountryaction,andnoseriousharmtoUSeconomy
4Downie,Christian(2014).ThePoliticsofClimateChangeNegotiations.
DomesticInstitutions(BushII)Internationally:• FormallyrejectKyotoProtocolDomestically:• ClimateChangePlan(2002)• Energyintensity18%êby2012
• EnergyPolicyAct(2005)• Complexbill…fossilfuels,energyefficiency,andtaxcreditsforrenewableenergies
• Massachusettsv.EPA(2007)• GHGsconsideredasairpollutantandEPAmustreviewpreviousdecisionnottoregulate
• PledgetostopGHGemissionsgrowthby2025(announced2008)
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Kyoto’sSuccessoratBali• SoonafterKyotocameintoeffect(2005),recognitionofneedfornewtreaty
• USismajorfocusofinternationalcriticismduringBaliclimatetalks(2007)
• BaliRoadmapeventuallyagreed:2-yearplantonewtreaty(toconcludein2009),w/orequirementsofcommitments
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“Butifforsomereasonyouarenotwillingtolead,leaveittotherestofus.Pleasegetoutoftheway.”
-PapuaNewGuineadelegate
US-China(Obama)
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• ObamaandHumeetingpriortoCopenhagen(2009)• PrecedenceforcooperationfromBushII• But,2009climatechangejointcommitmentsweredeparturesforbothcountries
• ObamaandXimeetings• Annualannouncementsofinitiatives• 2014climatechangecommitmentsforParis
USClimateActionPlan(2013)• Waxman-Markeycap-and-tradebillfailed(2010)
• CAPapproach:focusonsectorbysector,mostlyregulatory(i.e.,withoutnewlaws)• fueleconomystandardsforvehicles• biofuelsmandate• buildingcodesandotherenergyefficiencyprograms• taxcredits,loanguarantees,andR&Dsubsidiesforrenewableenergy,nuclear
• “Supergreenhousegases”—HFCs• CleanPowerPlan:rulestargetingcoal-firedpowerplants
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Paris(2015)• USpresenceandotherkeyactors(China,EU,France)• CulminationofnegotiatingrounddrivenbyUSobjectivesoffullparticipationanddevelopingcountrypledges
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Interlude:Last-minutetextchangeandUSdomesticlaw• AsclosingplenaryabouttostartonfinalSaturday,delayasUSteamnotedsomechangedwording:• “DevelopedcountryPartiesshallcontinuetakingtheleadbyundertakingeconomy-wideabsoluteemissionreductiontargets…”
• LegalinterpretationtoavoidnewSenateratification:• Alllegally-bindinglanguageinParismustalreadybeincludedintheUNFCCCtreaty(e.g.,reportingrequirements).Anythingadditionalmustbevoluntary(e.g.,“should”)
Marrakech(2016)• USelectioninfirstweek:manycountries“waitandsee”• HeadofUSdelegationsays“farewell”tostandingovationofgatheredNGOs
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IG@mitenergy
USInternationalClimateTargetsWillUSbeabletomeetitsinternationalclimatecommitments?Whatfollowsispurespeculation……andrepresentssolelymyviewsandinterpretation
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Prospectsfor2020Target2020(Copenhagen):ê17%relativeto2005levels• Overall,manypiecesalreadyinplace• Manyregulatorymeasuresalreadyinforceforawhile(vehicle,applianceefficiency)
• Gasoutlookstronginshort-term(EIA)• 36GWnewcapacityinnexttwoyears• Futures/forecastpricesrelativelystable
• Federalrenewableenergysubsidiesextendedin2015• Windproductiontaxcredit(atdecliningrate)through2020• Solarinvestmenttaxcreditthrough2019,decliningthereafter
12EnergyInformationAdministration(2017).Short-TermEnergyOutlook
Prospectsfor2020Target
13WorldResourcesInstitute(2014).TheU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsReductionsTargets.
Sidenoteondifferencebetweenregulationandlegislation• Regulation=authoritygivenbyCongressionallegislationtofederalagenciestomakerulesandpolicy• Requirementsforrule-makingprocesses,whichcan>1year• Eg,EPAuseswideauthorityunderCleanAirAct(asinterpretedbycourts)tocreateCleanPowerPlan
• “Rule-unmaking”sameprocessasrule-making(withexceptionforCongressionalReviewAct)
• Legislation=Congressionalactstosetandachievegoals• Mayspecifypoliciestoachievethem• Eg,Waxman-Markeysetscapandotherdetailsofcap-and-trade• Repealinglegislationcanbedoneimmediately
Wanttolearnmore?IDS.430(Fall)EnvironmentalLaw,Policy,andEconomics.Ashford,Caldart. 14
Prospectsfor2025andBeyond2025(Paris):ê26-28%relativeto2005levels• Outcomeslessclearwithoutnewaction• Morerecentregulatorymeasurescanbechanged• CongressionalReviewAct(CRA,1996):rarelyused,canoverturnagencyrulesmaderecently,withoutformalrule-makingprocess
àCouldtargetmethanerulesforoilandgas• NegotiatedresolutionofremainingCPPaftercourtreview
• Anewrenaissanceforcoal?
• UnderParisAgreement,USshouldsubmit2030pledgeby2020
15CongressionalResearchService(December15,2016).CRSInsight.
ClimatePolicyunderRepublicanAdministrations
• Breathe• Somewin-winitems• Energysecurity• Renewableenergyinredstates• Naturalgas(atleastfornow)
• Courts• Statesandcities• E.g.,Massachusettscurrentlydebatingtwocarbonpricingbills(HD1504,SD1021)
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THANKYOU!
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