1. STATE OF THE ART ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES Dr. Asa Jose U. Sajise Associate Professor Department of Economics, CEM, UPLB Dr. Mercedita A. Sombilla Manager, Research and Development Department SEARCA Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural resources Research and Development (PCARRD) Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Technical Workshop and Conference on Knowledge Tools and Lessons for Informing the Design and Implementation of Food Security Strategies in Asia 13-16 November 2011, Kathmandu, Nepal

2. OUTLINE What the literature is saying What are Climate Change risks the country is facing Impacts of these risks on selected AFNR sectors What is being done: Mitigation Literature What is being done: Adaptation Literature Analysis of the Literature: Trends and Other Observations Recommendations for Future Research Areas 3. WHAT THE LITERATURE IS SAYING Evidences of Increasing Climate Change Related Risks 4. EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES Documented/Observed Temperature Increase (observed increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures; increased frequency of hot and cold days) Increased precipitation and rainfall since 1960 with pronounced geographical differences in precipitation: Luzon and Mindanao is getting drier while Eastern and Western Visayas is getting wetter Extreme weather events particularly typhoons are also increasing in frequency (?) and strength. Sea level rise observed in certain areas such as Manila Bay, Northern Luzon (La Union), and Cebu Hazards are hydrometeorological in nature 5. Simulated Studies Simulated Studies mostly on temperature, precipitation and sea level rise: Patterned from IPCC simulations and scenarios Most studies done during the mid and late 1990s by PAGASA (Atmospheric and Geological Center in thePhilippines) researchers: Results/predictions usually at the national and region levels A lot of cross referencing and citation of these studies in later years EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES 6. WHAT THE LITERATURE IS SAYING Impacts of Climate Risks on Selected AFNR Sectors 7. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON MAJOR CC LITERATURE IN THE PHILIPPINES 1990-2000 Evidence (Science) of Changing Climate as environmental awareness was heightened due to issues on the countrys accelerated natural resource degradation Impacts and Adaptation Options as they relate to farming practices, natural resource protection (mostly centered on rice) Mostly done by PAG-ASA scientists Physical Vulnerability (hazard/ risk identification) Early to mid-2000 Impact and Adaptation Option Studies: in the form of simulations and modeling; economic valuation studies; vulnerability and risk assessments; adaptation studies, etc Mitigation studies (Forestry and Carbon Stocks) Late 2000 Impact, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Options Economic Vulnerability (Physical Vulnerability + Adaptive Capacity) Adaptation Behavior (Autonomous Adaptation) Studies (Micro level) 8. Summary of Literature Review Literature reviewed categorized into the following NRE sectors (adapted from the ADB study): Water stress Decline in agricultural production Effects on forests Effects on Coastal and Marine Areas Studies are either observed or simulated 9. WATER STRESS: IMPACTS Observed Observed or documented impacts are related to extreme events like typhoons, massive flooding, and El Nio. Studies have little by way of physical quantification of impacts but often end with some estimate of total damages ... from 1975 to 2002, intensified tropical cyclones caused an annual average of 593 deaths and annual damage to property worth $83 million, including damage to agriculture of around $55 million (Amadore, 2005) ... Historical data for Ormoc flash flood showed that the estimated damage cost was about PhP620 million plus other non-quantified damages (Predo, 2010) Simulated Increased precipitation results to more impacts than temperature Decreased run-off from modest increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation Increased run-off from modest increase in temperature and increase in precipitation Unlike observed impacts, simulation studies end in physical quantification of impacts and no monetary valuation of these impacts 10. DECLINE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS Observed impacts: on agriculture in general but could be linked to particular crop based on location. Decline in agricultural production is associated with extreme events in particular typhoons and El Nio Impacts in terms of quantity and value. Simulation studies: uses a combination of IPCC story lines linked with crop yield model (ORYZA, CERES models) Impacts mostly on yield decilnes in rice and corn at the national level. One study (Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007) contextualized simulations for some provinces (e.g. Ilagan, Isabela; Los Baos, Laguna; and Malaybalay, Bukidnon) No monetary valuation of impacts 11. EFFECTS ON FOREST AREAS Impacts mostly observed Linked to typhoons: flashfloods, landslides, loss of forest covers; Linked with El Nio events: forest fires Casual mention of changing species composition, e.g. endemic trees like the Philippine teak (Tectona philippinensis), has been threatened by increasing temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns (ADB, 2008) Very little information on quantification both in physical and monetary terms 12. EFFECTS ON COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS: IMPACTS Observed and simulation studies focused on impacts of: temperature increase that have resulted to coral bleaching; sea level rise (for simulated studies) that is projected to affect vast areas in the Philippines By 2045, 2,000 ha and about 500,000 people along the coast of Manila Bay ( 30 cm rise under B2-mid and A1-mid scenarios) By 2080, inundate over 5,000 ha of the Manila Bay coastal area and will affect over 2.5 million people (A2-high scenario, which shows a 100-cm) Coast of Manila Bay could succumb to a 1 m sea level rise by 2100 Note again physical quantification and very little monetary estimates with studies based on simulation 13. WHAT IS BEING DONE TO ADDRESS CC AND ITS IMPACTS Adaptation Literature 14. ADAPTATION Adaptation has been classified either as: Autonomous adaptation - autonomous reaction to actual or expected climate change (without policy interventions) Planned or policy-driven adaptation - result of deliberate policy decisions/have local public good characteristics provided by the state Adaptation can also be reactive or proactive, the former in response to actual climate change impact and the latter to anticipated climate change 15. ADAPTATION STUDIES: WHAT WE FOUND OUT The type of shocks matter. Households may adapt/react differently to different shocks (e.g. permanent temperature increases versus temporary extreme weather events). Household heterogeneity matters and adaptation behavior is a product of constrained choice. Different adaptation strategies are employed by different income and occupational groups. Households tend to cope more rather than adapt to extreme weather - thus the need for efficient social, economic institutions and strong rural organizations. Household Maladaptation can have social (and economic) consequences. 16. RECOMMENDED ADAPTATION MEASURES: A SUMMARY Sustainable development/ natural resource conservation and management policies Economic Policies: mostly related to correct pricing of natural resources and insurance Public Investment in Infrastructure: mostly related to engineering solutions Production of Knowledge and Information 17. ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION FOR RESEARCH AREAS IN CC & THE AFNR SECTOR A Proposed Platform for Socio-Economic Research in the Philippines 18. TWO KEY WORDS Downscaling Many important and significant studies on CC are mostly global or regional in nature May not be useful for local level CC planning Action in CC would most likely be at the local level Mainstreaming need to integrate policies and measures that address climate change into development planning and ongoing sectoral decision making, so as to ensure the long term sustainability of investments 19. SECTOR SPECIFIC STUDIES: FORESTRY Carbon Sequestration Studies Finding biomass equations to project tree growth; more accurate carbon sequestration projections, etc. Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems Assessing Vulnerability of different forest types and different forest species to CC related threats Valuation of CC impacts/ damage on forest types and different forest species from CC related threats Improving and Expanding Mitigation Options in Forestry Exploring potential for participation in REDD programs through PES schemes Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services under CC Analysis/ Identification of effective provisions/ rules in CDM/ REDD contracts that would address leakage in forestry related mitigation activities 20. SECTOR SPECIFIC STUDIES: AGRICULTURE Vulnerability Assessment of Agriculture Agricultural Vulnerability (Economic) Mapping Exploring Mitigation Options for Agriculture Assessing the mitigation potential of agricultural projects and explore/identify CDMable agricultural projects Evaluating the net impact of agriculture or assessing the carbon footprint of agriculture Explore PES for agricultural sequestration of carbon. Identifying negative tradeoffs bio-fuels Implementing Adaptation Options in Agriculture Use of weather indexed insurance for agriculture. 21. SECTOR SPECIFIC STUDIES: COASTAL With CC, the problem or view is seaward in or from the coast towards inland (as with typhoons and sea level rise). Coastal areas are sandwiched by hazards but very little information on impacts of CC related risks to coastal fisheries, inland fishery, and aquaculture. Vulnerability Assessment Impact of Climate Change on Coastal and Inland Fisheries Productivity. Implementing Adaptation Options for Coastal and Inland Fisheries Evaluating and valuing the protective functions of mangroves against sea level rise and storm surges and creating a PES type scheme to encourage mangrove conservation Exploring Mitigation Options for Coastal Areas Opportunities for Mangrove Conservation in REDD program 22. CROSS CUTTING STUDIES Vulnerability Assessment Identify and develop community based vulnerability assessment methodologies. Includes coming up with Economic vulnerability measures/ indicators for the different sectors Implementing Adaptation Options in the AFNR BCA of Adaptation Strategies/ Options in Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry. Analyzing adaptation behavior (i.e. choice of adaptation strategies) and adaptive capacity of natural resource dependent households/ communities Analysis of coping mechanisms of natural resource dependent households/ agrarian reform communities Increasing adaptive capacity through diversified and sustainable livelihoods Assessing levels of adaptation deficit for AFNR at the household and local government unit level. 23. CONCLUDING REMARKS In sum, the goal of any research initiative related to climate change is to be relevant. Relevance entails that these studies either lead, aid, or permit local level action that can contribute to solving the global problem of Climate Change... 24. Thank you! Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural resources Research and Development (PCARRD) Department of Science and Technology (DOST)