update on covid -19 projections...2021/01/12 · oct 10 oct 17 oct 24 oct 31 nov 7 nov 14 nov 21...

Update on COVID-19 ProjectionsScience Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables

January 12, 2021

Key Findings• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st 198 LTC

residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.

• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.

• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.

• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.

• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.

2

All Other PHUs, 32

Ottawa, 80Simcoe Muskoka, 72

Hamilton, 158

Brant, 103

Halton, 115

Lambton, 253

Peel, 232

Windsor-Essex, 323

York, 197

Toronto, 180

PROTECT (cases ≥ 10)

Haldimand-Norfolk, 106

Chatham-Kent, 126

Eastern, 142

Durham, 145

Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 128

Southwestern, 145

Middlesex-London, 132Waterloo, 145

RESTRICT (cases ≥ 25)

CONTROL (cases ≥ 40)

Niagara, 182

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Aug

1

Aug

8

Aug

15

Aug

22

Aug

29

Sep

5

Sep

12

Sep

19

Sep

26

Oct

3

Oct

10

Oct

17

Oct

24

Oct

31

Nov

7

Nov

14

Nov

21

Nov

28

Dec

5

Dec

12

Dec

19

Dec

26

Jan

2

Wee

kly

new

cas

es p

er 1

00,0

00 re

siden

ts (7

-day

avg

.)

Total new cases per 100,000 residents per week across PHUs

Data source: Case and Contact Management System, data up to January 8

Oct 9 Modified

Stage 2 begins in Toronto, Ottawa, and Peel

Sept 17In-person

classes for all major

school boards

Sept 25Restrictions on bars and restaurants

Oct 16 Modified

Stage 2 begins in

York

Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE

FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern

to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to

Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in

Modified Stage 2.

Nov 23Toronto and Peel enter 28-day lockdown

Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown

Recent data subject to

change

Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect

Sept 19Limits on social gatheringsizes

Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON

3

Middlesex-London, 6%Hamilton, 6%

Ottawa, 5%

Eastern, 7%

Peel, 13%

Durham, 8%

Windsor-Essex, 14%

Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 5%

All Other PHUs, 4%

York, 10%

Southwestern, 7%

PROTECT (positivity ≥ 0.5%)

Halton, 7%

RESTRICT (positivity ≥ 1.3%)

CONTROL (positivity ≥ 2.5%)Simcoe Muskoka, 3%

Lambton, 10%

Chatham-Kent, 9%

Waterloo, 7%

Haldimand-Norfolk, 5%

Toronto, 10%

Niagara, 6%Brant, 5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Aug

1

Aug

8

Aug

15

Aug

22

Aug

29

Sep

5

Sep

12

Sep

19

Sep

26

Oct

3

Oct

10

Oct

17

Oct

24

Oct

31

Nov

7

Nov

14

Nov

21

Nov

28

Dec

5

Dec

12

Dec

19

Dec

26

Jan

2

% p

ositi

vity

of d

aily

test

ing

episo

des (

7-da

y av

g.)

COVID-19 testing % positivity across PHUs

Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4

Sept 24Testing guidance update

Oct 6 Assessment Centres move to advance booking

Oct 1School & childcare screening guidance change





Modified Stage 2.

Nov 23Toronto and Peel

enter 28-day lockdown




4

Halton, 90%Hamilton, 91%

Lambton, 63%

Haldimand-Norfolk, 84%Durham, 81%

Middlesex-London, 86%

Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 66%

All Other PHUs, 77%

York, 75%

Toronto, 92%

Southwestern, 73%

Eastern, 85%

Peel, 86%

Waterloo, 76%

Simcoe Muskoka, 71%Windsor-Essex, 72%

Brant, 75%

Niagara, 84%

Chatham-Kent, 84%Ottawa, 84%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Aug

1

Aug

8

Aug

15

Aug

22

Aug

29

Sep

5

Sep

12

Sep

19

Sep

26

Oct

3

Oct

10

Oct

17

Oct

24

Oct

31

Nov

7

Nov

14

Nov

21

Nov

28

Dec

5

Dec

12

Dec

19

Dec

26

Jan

2

% o

f tes

ting

episo

des

with

resu

lts re

leas

ed w

ithin

2 d

ays o

f tes

t (7-

day

avg.

)Percent of COVID test results returned within 2 days across PHUs

Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4

Sept 24Testing guidance update

Oct 6 Assessment Centres move to advance booking

Oct 1School & childcare screening guidance change





Modified Stage 2.

Nov 23Toronto and Peel

enter 28-day lockdown




5

Weekly % positivity by age group

Legend:

Data Source: Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), MOH – extracted from SAS VA Jan 10Note: Includes all data submitted to OLIS up to January 7th 2021. The last six days are considered interim data (week 52) and subject to changeWeekly % positivity = total number of positive tests within the week (based on reported date)/COVID tests within the week

Weekly % positivity by age group

6

Data Source: Ministry of Long-Term Care Tracker, Dec 19th extraction based on data reported up to 3:30 pm Jan 9th, 2021. Data are self-reported by the long-term care homes to the Ministry of Long-Term Care. Daily case and death figures may not immediately match the numbers posted by the local public health units (i.e. iPHIS database) due to lags in reporting time.

7

Cases and cumulative mortality LTC increasing (198 resident and 2 staff deaths since January 1st)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Sep 1 Sep15

Oct 1 Oct15

Nov1

Nov15

Dec 1 Dec15

Jan 1

COVID-19 cases and deaths for LTC residents and staff

Daily Active Cases Residents

Daily Active Cases Staff

Cumulative deaths since Sept 1

Current status

252 LTC homes have COVID-19 outbreaks (40% of all homes) with 105 outbreaks involving resident cases

Outbreaks are occurring across almost all public health units, with 91 outbreaks (37%) occurring in priority vaccination areas of Toronto, Peel, York and Windsor-Essex

Since January 1st, 198 LTC residents have died of COVID-19 and 2 staff deaths have been reported

Forecasts suggest there will be more LTC residents deaths in wave 2 than in wave 1 (1,815 total deaths)

1,119 actual deaths as of Jan 9, 2021

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Cum

ulat

ive

LTC

resid

ent C

OVI

D-19

dea

ths

Date

Projected and actual cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths (Sep 1, 2020-Feb 14, 2021)

Projected deaths

Actual cumulative deaths (MLTC tracker)

Last

day

of f

orec

ast:

Feb

14, 2

021

2,639 projected deaths as of Feb 14, 2021 (worst case)

Projections: second wave cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths >2,600 by Feb 14 in worst case scenario

8Predictions: MOH Capacity Planning and Analytics Division Data: (Cumulative Deaths): MLTC Tracker Tool

Public Health Unit2226 Algoma Public Health Unit

2227 Brant County Health Unit

2230 Durham Region Health Department

2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit

2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit

2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit

2236 Halton Region Health Department

2237 Hamilton Public Health Services

2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit

2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit

2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit

2242 Lambton Health Unit

2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit

2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit

2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department

2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit

2249 Northwestern Health Unit

2251 Ottawa Public Health

2253 Peel Public Health

2255 Peterborough Public Health

2256 Porcupine Health Unit

2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit

2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit

2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit

2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit

2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit

2263 Timiskaming Health Unit

2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health

2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit

2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit

2270 York Region Public Health

3895 Toronto Public Health

4913 Southwestern Public Health

5183 Huron Perth Health Unit

Long-term Care OutbreaksJuly 1, 2020

Size of outbreak (staff and residents)

9



































Long-term Care OutbreaksOctober 1, 2020


10



































Long-term Care OutbreaksJanuary 7, 2021


11

Despite some reduced mobility from “Grey Zone” restrictions, there was a pre-holiday spike

12Analysis: UofT, St. Michael’s Hospital, ICES

Data: Google% change relative to January 2020

“Grey Zone” restrictions did not affect the proportion of people working from home; holiday decreases are not likely to persist

13Analysis: UofT, St. Michael’s Hospital, ICES

Data: Google% change relative to January 2020

With current restrictions, almost 2/3 of the population are acting in a way that will decrease COVID-19 spread

• Are people in your neighbourhood physically distancing?

• In the last 4 weeks, how many people outside your household visited your house (meal, celebration, stay over)?

• And if so, did you observe restrictions?

14

3 or more 1-2 None

Didn’t observe restrictions Observed restrictionsSurvey: Fields Institute

Occasionally or never Most of the time/sometimes All the time

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

12-21 12-28 01-04 01-11 01-18 01-25 02-01 02-08

Daily New Cases (Other Countries Aligned at 230/1M Population/Day)

ON - Daily ON - 7-Day Mean ON 0%↑ (Constant) ON 1%↑ ON 3%↑ ON 5%↑

ON 7%↑ FRA GER NLD UK

As happened in other jurisdictions, case growth continues under current levels of restrictions

15

ON 3%↑

ON 1%↑

ON 0%↑

ON 7%↑

Predictions informed by modeling from McMasterU, Fields Institute, COVID-19 ModCollab, PHO; recent growth in new daily cases; reported cases in peer jurisdictions

Data (Observed Cases): covid-19.ontario.ca; https://ourworldindata.org

Note: Ontario reached 23/100,000 cases between 1.5 and 3 months after these countries

ON 5%↑

https://ourworldindata.org/

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

ICU

Bed

s Occ

upie

d w

ith C

OVI

D-19

Pat

ient

s (pe

r Day

)

ON Observed ON Predicted ON 0%↑ (Constant) ON 1%↑ ON 3%↑ ON 5%↑ ON 7%↑

Projections: COVID-19 ICU occupancy around 500 beds in mid-January, potentially over 1,000 beds in February in more severe, but realistic scenarios

16

ON 0%↑

ON 1%↑

ON 3%↑

ON 5%↑

ON 7%↑

Predictions: COVID-19 ModCollab. Data (Observed ICU Occupancy): CCSO

150 beds

At 9% growth rate (not shown): >2,000 occupancy Feb 5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

01-Aug 08-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug 05-Sep 12-Sep 19-Sep 26-Sep 03-Oct 10-Oct 17-Oct 24-Oct 31-Oct 07-Nov 14-Nov 21-Nov 28-Nov 05-Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec 02-Jan

Confirmed COVID19 Acute Inpatients (excluding ICU)Confirmed COVID19 ICU Patients

17Data Sources: Daily Bed Census Summary COVID-19 Report + Critical Care Information System, extracted January 9

Over the past 4 weeks:72.2% increase in hospitalizations

61.2% increase in ICU patients

COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions continue to climb

One quarter of hospitals have no ICU beds free, another quarter have only 1 or 2 beds free

18

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%Co

rnw

all C

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unity

Hos

pita

l n =

11

Ham

ilton

Hea

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ener

al n

= 3

1Hu

mbe

r Riv

er W

ilson

n =

46

Mar

kham

Sto

uffv

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n =

15M

icha

el G

arro

n Ho

spita

l n =

17

Nia

gara

Hea

lth S

yste

m S

t. Ca

thar

ines

n =

14

Oak

ville

Tra

falg

ar M

emor

ial H

ospi

tal n

= 2

1Q

uint

e He

alth

care

Bel

levi

lle n

= 1

8Sc

arbo

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h Ce

nten

ary

n =

20St

. Tho

mas

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in G

ener

al H

ospi

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= 8

Stra

tfor

d Ge

nera

l Hos

pita

l n =

6Su

nnyb

rook

Hea

lth S

cien

ces C

entr

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= 52

Trill

ium

Cre

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alle

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spita

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24

Will

iam

Osle

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14

Win

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Cam

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= 1

9Ch

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0Ge

orgi

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ay G

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tal n

= 6

Mac

kenz

ie H

ealth

n =

30

Oril

lia S

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emor

ial H

ospi

tal n

= 8

Sout

hlak

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gion

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ealth

Cen

tre

n =

18U

nity

Hea

lth S

t. M

icha

el's

n =

29Bl

uew

ater

Hea

lth S

arni

a Ge

nera

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pita

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14

Cam

brid

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emor

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= 1

2Gr

ey B

ruce

Hea

lth S

ervi

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wen

Sou

nd n

= 6

Guel

ph G

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al H

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= 1

0Ha

milt

on H

ealth

Sci

ence

s Jur

avin

ski H

ospi

tal n

= 2

3Ki

ngst

on H

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Sci

ence

s Cen

tre

n =

33

Que

ensw

ay -

Carle

ton

Hosp

ital n

= 1

2Ro

yal V

icto

ria R

egio

nal H

ealth

Cen

tre

n =

15Sc

arbo

roug

h Bi

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ount

n =

15

St. M

ary'

s Gen

eral

Hos

pita

l n =

13

The

Ott

awa

Hosp

ital C

ivic

Cam

pus n

= 2

9U

HN T

oron

to W

este

rn H

ospi

tal n

= 3

3U

nity

Hea

lth S

t. Jo

seph

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= 18

Bran

tfor

d Ge

nera

l Hos

pita

l n =

15

Broc

kvill

e Ge

near

l Cha

rles S

t n =

10

Gran

d Ri

ver K

itche

ner W

ater

loo

n =

20Ha

lton

Heal

thca

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ilton

Dist

rict H

ospi

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n =

8He

alth

Sci

ence

s Nor

th n

= 1

4Ho

pita

l Mon

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t n =

12

Jose

ph B

rant

Hos

pita

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24

Lake

ridge

Hea

lth A

jax

n =

13La

kerid

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ealth

Osh

awa

n =

32LH

SC U

nive

rsity

Cam

pus n

= 2

5LH

SC V

icto

ria C

ampu

s n =

31

Mou

nt S

inai

Hos

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21

Nia

gara

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reat

er N

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= 1

5N

orth

Bay

Reg

iona

l Hea

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= 16

Nor

th Y

ork

Gene

ral H

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Regi

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Hos

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9Pe

terb

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gh R

egio

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rive

n =

28Ro

ss M

emor

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tal n

- 9

Saul

t Are

a Ho

spita

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13

Scar

boro

ugh

Gene

ral n

= 2

9St

Jose

ph's

Heal

thca

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= 2

7Th

e O

ttaw

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eral

Cam

pus n

= 2

9Th

unde

r Bay

Reg

iona

l Hea

lth S

cien

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entr

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= 22

Trill

ium

Miss

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ga H

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tal n

= 3

7U

HN T

oron

to G

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= 3

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illia

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sler B

ram

pton

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pus n

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inds

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oods

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eral

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pita

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12

0 Free Beds 1 Free Bed 2 Free Beds 3+ Free Beds

Perc

enta

ge o

f L3

MSI

CU B

eds O

ccup

ied

Percentage of Ontario L3 Medical Surgical ICU Beds Occupied on January 8, 2021, by Number of Available Beds

Other ICU Patients Patients with COVID-19

=

100% Occupancy85% Occupancy

Access to care continues to decline below 2019 levels

Dec. 21 to 27 holiday fluctuation in surgical volumes

19

Chart1

Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5 2020Dec 30 to Jan 512162224Dec 30 to Jan 52020

Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12 2020Jan 6 to Jan 1212162224Jan 6 to Jan 12



Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2 2020Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2

Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9 2020Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9



Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1 2020Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1

Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8 2020Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8




Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5 2020Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5

Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12 2020Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12



Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3 2020Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3

May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10 2020May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10




Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7 2020Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7




Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5 2020Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5

Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12 2020Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12



Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2 2020Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2

Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9 2020Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9

Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16621Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16



Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 61048Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6

Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 131525Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13



Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 44264Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4

Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 115267Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11



Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 16616Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1

Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 87842Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8




Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 612739Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6

Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 1313381Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13



Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 320931Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3

Diagnostic Imaging (MRI/CT)

Surgery

ALC (Acute)

ER

ER (Projected from triage volumes in eCTAS)

Confirmed COVID Volumes

Occupancy Rate

Directive #2

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart

Resume LTC (re)admissions

0% Line (No Change vs Prev Yr)

Change vs Previous Year (%)

Confirmed New COVID-19 Cases

[]

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart


-0.0000880308

-0.1221692491

0.0620849934

0.0261792245

5

0.0152336995

-1

-1

-1

-1

0

0.0384968129

-0.0363764045

0.0466887417

0.0265999964

0

0.0152395869

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

0

0.0399133021

-0.0135299592

0.0170527671

0.0275968125

0

0.0102416784

0

0.0640449176

0.0011534025

0.0256827048

0.0332342585

3

0.0065939004

0

0.0582986038

-0.0108201688

-0.0029277814

0.084345616

1

-0.0028701069

0

0.0332631676

-0.0110701107

-0.0003247808

-0.0245105898

0

-0.0044082828

0

0.0636679029

-0.0152184941

0.0147444299

-0.0188740851

0

0.0041660109

0

0.0213790794

0.0129775178

0.0061171925

-0.0325907735

1

-0.008952977

0

0.0247637139

-0.0311066514

0.0311567783

-0.0324517707

15

-0.0187515369

0

0.0208748415

-0.0065009287

0.0232480903

-0.0322449862

18

-0.0214104481

0

0.0082184882

0.5745681044

0.0255462185

-0.0999477443

178

-0.027795744

0

-0.3452600351

-0.8004894199

-0.0489021956

-0.3547771745

501

-0.1814507463

0

-0.5498114145

-0.8800249083

-0.1576454668

-0.4716898227

1464

-0.2765854952

0

-0.5738730286

-0.9100921394

-0.2743210725

-0.5403616769

2944

-0.3378155664

0

-0.6303250237

-0.9258128638

-0.2989072964

-0.5345216252

3347

-0.3537089514

0

-0.5337917025

-0.9040999472

-0.2735949099

-0.516133548

4316

-0.3237492199

0

-0.4979394938

-0.8859811511

-0.2103092784

-0.4668352444

3423

-0.284940705

0

-0.4828593908

-0.8876771274

-0.1648783977

-0.4000141862

2880

-0.2431386995

0

-0.443872715

-0.87894888

-0.0894511761

-0.3866210937

2304

-0.2263015393

0

-0.4039044861

-0.8632253471

-0.0403669725

-0.3580772634

2354

-0.2046089995

0

-0.3658574541

-0.8352262484

-0.0470588235

-0.3229489842

2543

-0.1899646452

0

-0.3145009853

-0.8155304675

0.0227839089

-0.2605928554

2680

-0.1671921907

0

-0.2539292503

-0.755856785

0.0339528234

-0.2463615671

2105

-0.1633354215

0

-0.2206660297

-0.657606644

0.0653641208

-0.2403706847

1403

-0.1613512094

0

-0.1906741702

-0.5668079411

0.044086774

-0.2248520205

1263

-0.1512644326

0

-0.1580055687

-0.4942422135

0.0708437166

-0.1747745459

1283

-0.1186039644

0

-0.1535814495

-0.3271719039

0.0020311442

-0.183545573

971

-0.1044178827

0

-0.1153981059

-0.3200723327

-0.0065404475

-0.1520079028

888

-0.0924416822

0

-0.1024806454

-0.264801399

-0.0667344173

-0.1377785515

939

-0.0892919922

0

-0.0904997434

-0.180731619

-0.0704507513

-0.1319997921

998

-0.0836367986

0

-0.0876929925

0.0873457537

-0.0683673469

-0.1225328029

736

-0.0763991981

0

-0.0781146564

0.1391154329

-0.0566037736

-0.1435891305

630

-0.0775105304

0

-0.0570513416

-0.1407490507

-0.0561612157

-0.1080003854

-0.0836407497

0

-0.0447443015

-0.1146231625

-0.0979631426

-0.1109362846

-0.0782262327

0

-0.0321361059

-0.0899024519

-0.0605960265

-0.1068343973

-0.0714854004

0

0.0794303218

-0.0224100275

-0.0645056726

-0.1070725603

-0.0949540627

0

-0.1679415073

-0.316398243

-0.0773694391

-0.1489569752

-0.0978427179

0

-0.0353896905

-0.1112416477

-0.0779510022

-0.1680084421

-0.0914051034

0

-0.0299185073

-0.0771528867

-0.0474976092

-0.1288936445

-0.0869541757

0

-0.036253709

-0.0809677894

-0.0359089452

-0.1391990068

-0.0720413455

0

-0.0437635781

-0.0824440871

0.0067159167

-0.1942503842

-0.0799246227

0

-0.0554218089

-0.0416981132

-0.0327225131

-0.2023368708

-0.0836379114

0

-0.0549477539

-0.0552914503

-0.036227154

-0.2213908958

-0.0900860941

0

-0.0599229244

-0.0566078974

-0.0281782438

-0.2376701871

-0.0890748496

0

-0.0394501565

-0.0562091503

-0.0368525896

-0.1828221306

-0.0891257596

0

-0.0059062122

-0.0774867346

-0.0526655897

-0.1528281449

-0.0858191432

0

-0.0397862101

-0.0716838037

-0.0521403283

-0.2471073042

-0.1114002498

0

-0.0254167684

-0.0738138356

-0.0391318645

-0.2386821177

-0.2386821177

-0.1060205927

0

0.0107051483

-0.0909284952

-0.0664919751

-0.2401275475

-0.1066883055

0

0.0003104488

-0.0748613678

-0.070679743

-0.254765228

-0.1118919356

0

-0.0012861011

-0.1046954771

-0.0786056049

-0.2966778749

-0.1120135804

0

0.1391760356

3.1646017699

-0.1163333333

-0.3737307923

-0.1308952108

0

-0.419532809

-0.2393075356

-0.1025320413

-0.3304371213

-0.1530582321

0

Title Page

COVID Weekly Trends Report

Prepared by Access to Care Program

Data as of:Sunday, January 03, 2021

Legal Disclaimer

This data has been prepared to support COVID-19 pandemic planning and should be disseminated only to those individuals who require it. Please do not use this information, either alone or with other information to identify an individual. This includes attempting to decrypt information that is encrypted, attempting to identify an individual based on encrypted information and attempting to identify an individual based on prior knowledge

Overall

Select Province, Region, LHIN or COVID Zone

Overall View

Volume as a % of 2019 Levels

For the most recent week:Current Week (Dec 28 to Jan 3)4 Week Aggregate (Dec 7 to Jan 3)

●Surgery volumes were 23.9% below 2019 levels (same week previous year)Surgery76.1%101.1%

●Diagnositc Imaging (MRI/CT) volumes were 42.0% below 2019 levelsDI58.0%92.9%

●ALC Acute open case volumes were 10.3% below 2019 levelsALC89.7%90.8%

●ER volumes (projected from eCTAS triage volumes) were 33.0% below 2019 levelsER67.0%68.4%

●Occupancy rates (Acute) were 15.3 percentage points below 2019 levels, with a daily average of 3,572 available beds

Notes:

*Please note for the week of December 21 to 27 surgical volumes decreased compared to the previous week due to holidays.

However, surgical activity did not ramp down as significantly as last year; therefore the 2020 vs 2019 % change may appear unusually high.

●COVID zone colour is as of January 03

●Figures for the most current week are likely to change as a result of lags in entering completed cases

●Regional covid case counts may be under-reported due to insufficient information (approx. 1.6% of provincial totals). Case counts for most recent days (~7 days) are

subject to undercounting due to reporting lag. Unless otherwise noted information is based on the reported data in iPHIS.

●For more details please visit the LOB-specific executive report

Data Source: eCTAS, NACRS, WTIS, iPHIS and Daily Bed Census Summary (queried from MOH SAS VA)

&L&G

Overall

Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5 2020Dec 30 to Jan 512162224Dec 30 to Jan 52020




Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2 2020Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2




Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1 2020Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1





Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5 2020Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5




Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3 2020Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3









Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5 2020Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5




Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2 2020Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2

Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9 2020Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9




Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 61048Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6




Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 44264Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4




Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 16616Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1





Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 612739Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6




Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 320931Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3


Surgery

ALC (Acute)

ER



Occupancy Rate

Directive #2

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart



Change vs Previous Year (%)

Confirmed COVID-19 Volumes

[]

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart


-0.0000880308

-0.1221692491

0.0620849934

0.0261792245

5

0.0152336995

-1

-1

-1

-1

0

0.0384968129

-0.0363764045

0.0466887417

0.0265999964

0

0.0152395869

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

0

0.0399133021

-0.0135299592

0.0170527671

0.0275968125

0

0.0102416784

0

0.0640449176

0.0011534025

0.0256827048

0.0332342585

3

0.0065939004

0

0.0582986038

-0.0108201688

-0.0029277814

0.084345616

1

-0.0028701069

0

0.0332631676

-0.0110701107

-0.0003247808

-0.0245105898

0

-0.0044082828

0

0.0636679029

-0.0152184941

0.0147444299

-0.0188740851

0

0.0041660109

0

0.0213790794

0.0129775178

0.0061171925

-0.0325907735

1

-0.008952977

0

0.0247637139

-0.0311066514

0.0311567783

-0.0324517707

15

-0.0187515369

0

0.0208748415

-0.0065009287

0.0232480903

-0.0322449862

18

-0.0214104481

0

0.0082184882

0.5745681044

0.0255462185

-0.0999477443

178

-0.027795744

0

-0.3452600351

-0.8004894199

-0.0489021956

-0.3547771745

501

-0.1814507463

0

-0.5498114145

-0.8800249083

-0.1576454668

-0.4716898227

1464

-0.2765854952

0

-0.5738730286

-0.9100921394

-0.2743210725

-0.5403616769

2944

-0.3378155664

0

-0.6303250237

-0.9258128638

-0.2989072964

-0.5345216252

3347

-0.3537089514

0

-0.5337917025

-0.9040999472

-0.2735949099

-0.516133548

4316

-0.3237492199

0

-0.4979394938

-0.8859811511

-0.2103092784

-0.4668352444

3423

-0.284940705

0

-0.4828593908

-0.8876771274

-0.1648783977

-0.4000141862

2880

-0.2431386995

0

-0.443872715

-0.87894888

-0.0894511761

-0.3866210937

2304

-0.2263015393

0

-0.4039044861

-0.8632253471

-0.0403669725

-0.3580772634

2354

-0.2046089995

0

-0.3658574541

-0.8352262484

-0.0470588235

-0.3229489842

2543

-0.1899646452

0

-0.3145009853

-0.8155304675

0.0227839089

-0.2605928554

2680

-0.1671921907

0

-0.2539292503

-0.755856785

0.0339528234

-0.2463615671

2105

-0.1633354215

0

-0.2206660297

-0.657606644

0.0653641208

-0.2403706847

1403

-0.1613512094

0

-0.1906741702

-0.5668079411

0.044086774

-0.2248520205

1263

-0.1512644326

0

-0.1580055687

-0.4942422135

0.0708437166

-0.1747745459

1283

-0.1186039644

0

-0.1535814495

-0.3271719039

0.0020311442

-0.183545573

971

-0.1044178827

0

-0.1153981059

-0.3200723327

-0.0065404475

-0.1520079028

888

-0.0924416822

0

-0.1024806454

-0.264801399

-0.0667344173

-0.1377785515

939

-0.0892919922

0

-0.0904997434

-0.180731619

-0.0704507513

-0.1319997921

998

-0.0836367986

0

-0.0876929925

0.0873457537

-0.0683673469

-0.1225328029

736

-0.0763991981

0

-0.0781146564

0.1391154329

-0.0566037736

-0.1435891305

630

-0.0775105304

0

-0.0570513416

-0.1407490507

-0.0561612157

-0.1080003854

-0.0836407497

0

-0.0447443015

-0.1146231625

-0.0979631426

-0.1109362846

-0.0782262327

0

-0.0321361059

-0.0899024519

-0.0605960265

-0.1068343973

-0.0714854004

0

0.0794303218

-0.0224100275

-0.0645056726

-0.1070725603

-0.0949540627

0

-0.1679415073

-0.316398243

-0.0773694391

-0.1489569752

-0.0978427179

0

-0.0353896905

-0.1112416477

-0.0779510022

-0.1680084421

-0.0914051034

0

-0.0299185073

-0.0771528867

-0.0474976092

-0.1288936445

-0.0869541757

0

-0.036253709

-0.0809677894

-0.0359089452

-0.1391990068

-0.0720413455

0

-0.0437635781

-0.0824440871

0.0067159167

-0.1942503842

-0.0799246227

0

-0.0554218089

-0.0416981132

-0.0327225131

-0.2023368708

-0.0836379114

0

-0.0549477539

-0.0552914503

-0.036227154

-0.2213908958

-0.0900860941

0

-0.0599229244

-0.0566078974

-0.0281782438

-0.2376701871

-0.0890748496

0

-0.0394501565

-0.0562091503

-0.0368525896

-0.1828221306

-0.0891257596

0

-0.0059062122

-0.0774867346

-0.0526655897

-0.1528281449

-0.0858191432

0

-0.0397862101

-0.0716838037

-0.0521403283

-0.2471073042

-0.1114002498

0

-0.0254167684

-0.0738138356

-0.0391318645

-0.2386821177

-0.2386821177

-0.1060205927

0

0.0107051483

-0.0909284952

-0.0664919751

-0.2401275475

-0.1066883055

0

0.0003104488

-0.0748613678

-0.070679743

-0.254765228

-0.1118919356

0

-0.0012861011

-0.1046954771

-0.0786056049

-0.2966778749

-0.1120135804

0

0.1391760356

3.1646017699

-0.1163333333

-0.3737307923

-0.1308952108

0

-0.419532809

-0.2393075356

-0.1025320413

-0.3304371213

-0.1530582321

0

Alternate Overall

Surgery and DI data in most recent week likely to change due to reporting lag

* Volume change >150%Please see notes below for more details

Alternate Overall

Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Dec 30 to Jan 5 20208121820Jan 27 to Feb 2

Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Jan 6 to Jan 12 20208121820Feb 3 to Feb 9



Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Jan 27 to Feb 2 2020Feb 24 to Mar 1

Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Feb 3 to Feb 9 2020Mar 2 to Mar 8



Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Feb 24 to Mar 1 2020Mar 23 to Mar 29

Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 2 to Mar 8 2020Mar 30 to Apr 5

Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Mar 9 to Mar 15 2020Apr 6 to Apr 12



Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Mar 30 to Apr 5 2020Apr 27 to May 3

May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10Apr 6 to Apr 12 2020May 4 to May 10



May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31Apr 27 to May 3 2020May 25 to May 31

Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7May 4 to May 10 2020Jun 1 to Jun 7




Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 1 to Jun 7 2020Jun 29 to Jul 5

Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jun 8 to Jun 14 2020Jul 6 to Jul 12



Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jun 29 to Jul 5 2020Jul 27 to Aug 2

Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Jul 6 to Jul 12 2020Aug 3 to Aug 9



Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Jul 27 to Aug 2 2020Aug 24 to Aug 30

Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 3 to Aug 9 2020Aug 31 to Sep 6

Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 131525Sep 7 to Sep 13



Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 44264Sep 28 to Oct 4

Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 115267Oct 5 to Oct 11



Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 16616Oct 26 to Nov 1

Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 87842Nov 2 to Nov 8




Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 612739Nov 30 to Dec 6

Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 1313381Dec 7 to Dec 13




Surgery

ER



Directive #2

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart



2020 vs 2019 (%)

COVID Volumes

Weekly Volume Comparison - % Change 2020 vs 2019

[]

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart


0.0582986038

-0.0108201688

0.084345616

1

-1

-1

-1

-1

0

0.0332631676

-0.0110701107

-0.0245105898

0

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

0

0.0636679029

-0.0152184941

-0.0188740851

0

0

0.0213790794

0.0129775178

-0.0325907735

1

0

0.0247637139

-0.0311066514

-0.0324517707

15

0

0.0208748415

-0.0065009287

-0.0322449862

18

0

0.0082184882

0.5745681044

-0.0999477443

178

0

-0.3452600351

-0.8004894199

-0.3547771745

501

0

-0.5498114145

-0.8800249083

-0.4716898227

1464

0

-0.5738730286

-0.9100921394

-0.5403616769

2944

0

-0.6303250237

-0.9258128638

-0.5345216252

3347

0

-0.5337917025

-0.9040999472

-0.516133548

4316

0

-0.4979394938

-0.8859811511

-0.4668352444

3423

0

-0.4828593908

-0.8876771274

-0.4000141862

2880

0

-0.443872715

-0.87894888

-0.3866210937

2304

0

-0.4039044861

-0.8632253471

-0.3580772634

2354

0

-0.3658574541

-0.8352262484

-0.3229489842

2543

0

-0.3145009853

-0.8155304675

-0.2605928554

2680

0

-0.2539292503

-0.755856785

-0.2463615671

2105

0

-0.2206660297

-0.657606644

-0.2403706847

1403

0

-0.1906741702

-0.5668079411

-0.2248520205

1263

0

-0.1580055687

-0.4942422135

-0.1747745459

1283

0

-0.1535814495

-0.3271719039

-0.183545573

971

0

-0.1153981059

-0.3200723327

-0.1520079028

888

0

-0.1024806454

-0.264801399

-0.1377785515

939

0

-0.0904997434

-0.180731619

-0.1319997921

998

0

-0.0876929925

0.0873457537

-0.1225328029

736

0

-0.0781146564

0.1391154329

-0.1435891305

630

0

-0.0570513416

-0.1407490507

-0.1080003854

621

0

-0.0447443015

-0.1146231625

-0.1109362846

730

0

-0.0321361059

-0.0899024519

-0.1068343973

875

0

0.0794303218

-0.0224100275

-0.1070725603

1048

0

-0.1679415073

-0.316398243

-0.1489569752

0

-0.0353896905

-0.1112416477

-0.1680084421

0

-0.0299185073

-0.0771528867

-0.1288936445

0

-0.036253709

-0.0809677894

0

-0.0437635781

-0.0824440871

0

-0.0554218089

-0.0416981132

0

-0.0549477539

-0.0552914503

0

-0.0599229244

-0.0566078974

0

-0.0394501565

-0.0562091503

0

-0.0059062122

-0.0774867346

0

-0.0397862101

-0.0716838037

0

-0.0254167684

-0.0738138356

-0.2386821177

0

0.0107051483

-0.0909284952

-0.2401275475

0

0.0003104488

-0.0748613678

-0.254765228

0

-0.0012861011

-0.1046954771

-0.2966778749

0

0.1391760356

3.1646017699

-0.3737307923

0

Surgery

Select Province, Region, LHIN or COVID Zone

Surgery

Select Surgical Specialty

1170190170190

2166168166168

3169173169173

4164163164163

5156168156168

6162165162165

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8156162156162

9161165161165

10153160153160

11162164162164

12157128157128

131615816158

141555315553

151614816148

161565215652

171706817068

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37170268170268

38171275171275

39175279175279

40174288174288

41172271172271

42176276176276

43177281177281

Data Source: Wait Time Information System cut as of January 444171290171290

Notes:45171281171281

●Surgery volumes were 23.9% below 2019 levels (same week previous year)46177290177290

●Overall surgical volume trends may not reflect variations in subgroups (e.g. oncology volumes did not decrease to the same extent as non-oncology volumes)47172285172285

●Figures for the most current week are likely to change as a result of lags in entering completed cases48174290174290

●Gaps in wait times indicate suppression due to low or no volumes49167273167273

●Click here for 4 week regional comparison50169274169274

●COVID zone colour is as of January 0351164278164278

52161280161280

*Please note for the week of Dec 21 to 27th surgical volumes decreased compared to the previous week due to holidays.53190228190228

However, surgical activity did not ramp down as significantly as last year; therefore the 2020 vs 2019 % change may appear unusually high.541680168

551730173

Surgical case volumes by surgical specialty for 5 Ontario Health Regions and Province561630163

December 7 to January 3, FY2020 case volumes as a proportion of FY2019 case volumes during same period571680168

581650165

591630163

601620162

611650165

621600160

631640164

641280128

6558058

6653053

6748048

6852052

6968068

7073073

7184084

7297097

731050105

741250125

751490149

761880188

771970197

782090209

* Angiography and Cardiac surgery volumes are for the previous rolling 4-week period (November 30 to December 27) due to reporting lag

Back to TopData Source: Wait Time Information System cut as of January 4, Angiography and Cardiac data from MOH SAS VA Surgical Dashboard

2019 comparison period: December 9 to January 5

All other surgeries percent change:100.5%

Surgery

Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 512162224

Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 1212162224



Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2

Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9



Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1

Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8




Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5

Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12



Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3

May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10




Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7




Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5

Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12



Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2

Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9




Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6

Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13



Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4

Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11



Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1

Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8




Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6

Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13



Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3

Prev Yr Volumes

2020/21 Volumes

Prev Yr Surgery Wait Time (Overall)

2020/21 Surgery Wait Time (Overall)

Directive #2

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart


Volumes

90th Percentile Wait Time - Wait 2 (days)

Weekly Volume and Wait Time Comparison - 2020/21 vs Previous Year (Surgery)

Directive #2

LTC Action Plan

Surgical Restart


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14240

13722

15900

15900

15900

15900

13969

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13888

13863

13713

13821

13668

13799

13589

10942

11084

13952

13518

13998

13907

8509

13398

13894

2772

14453

1734

13892

1249

14086

1045

11366

1090

11884

1355

13479

1514

13928

1686

14045

1921

11094

1828

13818

2549

13574

3314

13245

4535

13449

5826

12939

6544

8656

5824

12166

8272

12009

8829

11044

9048

8266

8988

6376

7263

11588

9957

11769

10420

11379

10356

10531

10295

13660

9338

13619

12104

13389

12356

13598

12497

13682

12554

10600

10158

13673

12917

13726

12949

13770

12996

11873

10953

13713

12730

13805

12786

14055

12777

14066

13013

13907

12451

1130

4706

2946

2241

Sx Regional

Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*

Cancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer Surgery

Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*

General SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral Surgery

GynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologic

NeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgery

OMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/Dentistry

OphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmic

OrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedic

OtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngic

PediatricPediatricPediatricPediatricPediatricPediatricPediatric

Plastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / Reconstructive

ThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracic

UrologicUrologicUrologicUrologicUrologicUrologicUrologic

VascularVascularVascularVascularVascularVascularVascular

West

Central

Toronto

East

North

Province

Line

0.8885672938

0.6605284227

0.7793017456

0.8854166667

1.0733752621

0.8306484092

1

0.9875311721

1.1428571429

0.92

0.9276923077

1.1812080537

1

1

0.7272727273

0.8097826087

1.0182648402

0.9612903226

1.2121212121

0.8787528868

1

0.9899856938

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0.7035830619

1.0702970297

0.9931740614

0.9699045755

1

0.899408284

0.8181818182

0.909375

0.9795597484

0.9222222222

0.8978553253

1

0.5915492958

1.0196078431

1

0.8548387097

1.5

0.8737373737

1

0.8571428571

0.7532467532

0.5

0.7727272727

1

0.8014527845

1

1.2839264763

1.327027027

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1.3067788224

1.3715277778

1.2483230304

1

0.9859375

0.9964714185

0.9415041783

1.1677953348

1.2805555556

1.0435236769

1

0.8134715026

0.9544235925

0.7448979592

1.024137931

0.9545454545

0.8970251716

1

0.7552356021

0.6341853035

0.9580712788

0.7954173486

0.581920904

0.7608286252

1

0.7508896797

0.8638888889

0.7452830189

0.8409785933

0.649122807

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1

0.5806451613

0.3333333333

0.2105263158

0.44

3

0.5384615385

1

0.9272030651

0.8524590164

0.7823834197

1.1125703565

0.9802631579

0.9395368782

1

1.152173913

0.8214285714

0.7192982456

1.0247933884

0.976744186

0.9720767888

1

DI

20192020

Start Week50102COVID!C:C,COVID!D:D,">="&$AK24,COVID!D:D,"

Daily mortality is increasing under current restrictions, doubling from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of February

20Forecasting: McMasterU. Data (Observed Deaths): CCM+

Assumption: continue current restrictions.

0

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2-1-20 3-1-20 4-1-20 5-1-20 6-1-20 7-1-20 8-1-20 9-1-20 10-1-20 11-1-20 12-1-20 1-1-21

Daily New Cases per 1 Million People (7-Day Average)

France Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Ontario

The Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.7 appears to be much more easily transmitted

• Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, B.1.1.7, emerged in southeast England in November

• Transmissibility: 56% ↑ (95% credible interval 50-74%)

• No increase in disease severity, vaccines likely still effective

21

800 Cases/1M Pop ~ 12,000 cases/Day for ON Population

Sources: https://ourworldindata.org; CCM+Sources: Public Health England Technical Reports; Davies NG et al (LSHTM)

UK

NLD

GERFRAON

https://ourworldindata.org/

If the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 spreads in the community, doubling time for cases could drop to 10 days in March

Predictions: QueensU

Assumptions: 1 case infected with B.1.1.7. from the UK entering Ontario mid-Oct, transmissibility of variant 56% ↑ than other circulating variants (based on UK data), continue current restrictions. 22

Key components of hard lockdowns in peer jurisdictions

Victoria, Australia

France (Fall) UK* Germany* Netherlands*

Strict stay-at-home order / movement restrictions

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Non-essential retail closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Bars, restaurants , gyms etc. closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Most workplaces closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Schools closed ✓ ✕ ✓ ✓ ✓

Mandatory masking outdoors ✓ ✓ ✕ ✕ ✕

Testing blitz in high risk areas ✓ ✕ ✕ ✕ ✕

Curfew ✓ ✓ ✕ ✓ ✕

Enforcement ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

23✓ = fully imposed, ✓ = partially imposed, ✕ = not imposed, *Currently in lockdown

Key Findings

• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st

198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.

• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.

• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.

• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.

• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.

24

Content provided by Modelling Consensus and Scientific Advisory Table members and secretariatBeate Sander,* Peter Juni, Brian Schwartz,* Kumar Murty,* Upton Allen, Vanessa Allen, Nicholas Bodmer, Isaac Bogoch, Kevin Brown, Sarah Buchan, Yoojin Choi, Troy Day, David Earn, Gerald Evans, David Fisman, Jennifer Gibson, Anna Greenberg, Anne Hayes, Michael Hillmer, Jessica Hopkins, Jeff Kwong, Audrey Laporte, John Lavis, Gerald Lebovic, Brian Lewis, Linda Mah, Kamil Malikov, Antonina Maltsev, Doug Manuel, Allison McGeer, David McKeown, John McLaughlin, Sharmistha Mishra, Justin Morgenstern, Samira Mubareka, Laveena Munshi, Christopher Mushquash, Ayodele Odutayo, Shahla Oskooei, Samir Patel, Bill Praamsma, Justin Presseau, Fahad Razak, Paula Rochon, Laura Rosella, Arjumand Siddiqi, Chris Simpson, Arthur Slutsky, Janet Smylie, Nathan Stall, Ashleigh Tuite, Jennifer Walker, Tania Watts, Ashini Weerasinghe, Scott Weese, Xiaolin Wei, Jianhong Wu, Diana Yan, Emre Yurga

* Chairs of Scientific Advisory or Modelling Consensus Tables

25

Update on COVID-19 ProjectionsKey FindingsSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Weekly % positivity by age groupSlide Number 7Projections: second wave cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths >2,600 by Feb 14 in worst case scenarioSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Despite some reduced mobility from “Grey Zone” restrictions, there was a pre-holiday spike“Grey Zone” restrictions did not affect the proportion of people working from home; holiday decreases are not likely to persistWith current restrictions, almost 2/3 of the population are acting in a way that will decrease COVID-19 spreadAs happened in other jurisdictions, case growth continues under current levels of restrictionsProjections: COVID-19 ICU occupancy around 500 beds in mid-January, potentially over 1,000 beds in February in more severe, but realistic scenariosSlide Number 17One quarter of hospitals have no ICU beds free, another quarter have only 1 or 2 beds freeSlide Number 19Daily mortality is increasing under current restrictions, doubling from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of FebruaryThe Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.7 appears to be much more easily transmittedIf the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 spreads in the community, doubling time for cases could drop to 10 days in MarchKey components of hard lockdowns in peer jurisdictionsKey FindingsContent provided by Modelling Consensus and Scientific Advisory Table members and secretariat

update on covid -19 projections...2021/01/12 · oct 10 oct 17 oct 24 oct 31 nov 7 nov 14 nov 21...

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