uk trading & value indicator 20120118

8/3/2019 uk trading & value indicator 20120118

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18 January 2012

UK Trading &Value

Indicator


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Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 18 January 2012

Page 2 of 25 Intellisys 18 January 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures Interest Rates ............................................................ 10UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15Aerospace & Defence ............................................. Over Valued 16Automobiles & Parts .............................................. Over Valued 16Banks ............................................................. Over Valued 16Beverages ........................................................ Over Valued 16Chemicals .......................................................... Over Valued 16Construction & Building Materials .............................. Over Valued 17Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................. Under Valued 17Engineering & Machinery ........................................ Over Valued 17Food & Drug Stores ............................................... Under Valued 18Food Producers & Processors ................................... Over Valued 18General Retail ..................................................... Over Valued 18Health .............................................................. Over Valued 18Household Goods & Textiles .................................... Under Valued 18Information Technology & Hardware .......................... Over Valued 19Insurance ........................................................ Over Valued 19Leisure & Hotels .................................................. Under Valued 19Life Assurance .................................................. Over Valued 19Media & Entertainment .......................................... Over Valued 20Mining .............................................................. Under Valued 20Oil & Gas ........................................................... Under Valued 20Personal Care & Household Products .......................... Over Valued 20Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology .............................. Under Valued 21Software & Computer Services ................................. Under Valued 21Speciality & Other Finance

......................................

Over Valued21

Support Services .................................................. Under Valued 22Telecommunication Services .................................... Under Valued 22Transport ........................................................ Over Valued 23Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24


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IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an

increasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box,

typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of aninvestment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

TimingIntellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key

factors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimentalfactors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trend

correlation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

Source: Intellisys

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend


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Value

A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices.On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cashflow

Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his

investment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment

valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the

Target as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a

function of market levels but a management teams ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to startwith a modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange orextreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them

as starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion ofa stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist

investors from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised bymanagement cults.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunctionwith, and not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


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Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,512.1

4,944.4

5,694.0

6,091.3

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.0

7.9

10.3

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M 5.7; 3M 4.7; 12M -4.9 1M 6.8; 3M 19.3; 12M -16.6

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.5

3.9

6.0

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

11.1

63.3

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M -5.9; 3M -2.0; 12M 18.6


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FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

5,769.8

9,425.9

10,592.2

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

16.1

19.3

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 8.1; 3M 3.3; 12M -9.8 1M 5.9; 3M 7.0; 12M -16.9

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.2

3.0

3.3

5.1

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

7.9

75.3

75.3

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M -6.9; 3M 2.4; 12M 36.7


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FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,781.6

2,557.8

2,930.3

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

7.4

8.5

10.9

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 6.0; 3M 4.5; 12M -5.7 1M 7.0; 3M 18.0; 12M -17.0

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.4

3.8

5.8

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

10.4

65.8

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M -5.8; 3M -1.2; 12M 20.7


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FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

373.8

657.8

736.8

968.3

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL- SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

98.4

211.5

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 8.9; 3M 3.1; 12M -23.2 1M -6.8; 3M 26.0; 12M -166.2

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

2.1

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

6.9

84.0

86.4

0 50 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M -6.6; 3M -1.4; 12M 34.0


9/25




S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

676.5

1,099.2

1,293.7

1,363.6

1,363.6

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

14.9

18.4

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 6.1; 3M 7.7; 12M 0.0 1M 5.5; 3M 4.2; 12M -17.0

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

11.2

67.2

71.1

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M -4.8; 3M -4.4; 12M 17.9


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Market Pictures Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

1.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

66.7

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE


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Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

3.00

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M -22.2; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

33.3

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE


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US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.08

0.19

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 14.3; 3M 14.3; 12M -50.0

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

1,250.0

526.3

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.37

1.37

1.53

1.54

1.67

1.70

2.11

1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/

% change

1M -1.1; 3M -2.7; 12M -3.5

/

1.02

1.06

1.11

1.21

1.21

1.24

1.53

1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EURO/

% change

1M 1.3; 3M 5.2; 12M 0.7


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Market Pictures Exchange Rates

US$/

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.27

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -2.3; 3M -7.3; 12M -4.2

/

117.1

117.1

117.1

117.9

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/

% change

1M -2.3; 3M -2.6; 12M -10.3


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Market Pictures - Oil

Brent Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

39.1

95.9

111.3

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M 6.02; 3M -1.85; 12M 13.01


Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you

should contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.


16/25



Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 305.40 248.10 361.10 Neutral Strong Buy 603 0.63

CHEMRING GROUP 435.00 368.80 736.50 Neutral Neutral 473 0.53

COBHAM 189.10 165.90 236.50 Neutral Buy 236 0.94

MEGGITT 375.50 305.00 397.60 Neutral Sell 333 1.34

ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 763.00 552.19 769.00 Neutral Sell 591 1.09

SMITHS GROUP 960.00 869.50 1429.00 Neutral Neutral 1009 0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1575.00 1305.00 1830.00 Neutral Sell 1222 0.59

UMECO 359.00 243.50 512.50 Neutral Neutral 363 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 206.30 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 163 1.93

INCHCAPE 324.20 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 278 1.40

LOOKERS 49.50 47.00 72.75 Neutral Buy 62 1.34

PENDRAGON 7.40 6.80 19.71 Neutral Neutral 8 1.08

Banks Over Valued


BARCLAYS 199.25 138.85 333.55 Neutral Sell 67 1.81

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 517.50 463.50 730.90 Neutral Strong Buy 854 1.12

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 29.54 21.84 69.30 Sell Strong Buy 147 1.72

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 24.85 17.34 49.00 Sell Sell -26 1.23

STANDARD CHARTERED 1472.00 1169.50 1725.50 Neutral Sell 1326 1.69

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1215.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1225 0.42

DIAGEO 1401.00 1112.00 1428.00 Neutral Sell 1261 0.55SABMILLER 2304.00 1979.00 2354.50 Neutral Buy 2713 0.97

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 1936.00 1456.00 2081.00 Neutral Sell 1595 1.06

ELEMENTIS 148.30 107.50 187.40 Neutral Neutral 149 1.06

JOHNSON MATTHEY 2034.00 1523.00 2119.00 Neutral Sell 1669 1.43

VICTREX 1222.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Sell 1139 1.20

YULE CATTO 180.40 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 297 1.25

ZOTEFOAMS 117.00 109.00 158.00 Neutral Strong Buy 194 1.01


17/25



Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 290.70 214.60 357.30 Neutral Sell 270 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 111.00 67.50 119.00 Sell Sell 58 1.39

BELLWAY 733.00 540.50 776.50 Neutral Sell 642 1.00

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1298.00 884.50 1360.00 Neutral Neutral 1299 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 459.00 326.50 499.60 Neutral Sell 193 1.07

CARILLION 311.60 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 446 1.10

CLARKE (T) 39.50 35.50 105.00 Neutral Strong Buy 189 0.84COSTAIN GROUP 200.25 180.00 265.00 Neutral Strong Buy 746 0.58

GALLIFORD TRY 491.40 307.50 530.00 Neutral Neutral 519 1.02

KELLER 316.00 239.25 679.50 Neutral Buy 352 1.26

KIER GROUP 1401.00 1097.00 1458.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2999 1.05

LOW & BONAR 44.00 38.00 76.75 Neutral Buy 56 1.04

MARSHALLS 93.00 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 61 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 640.00 510.00 720.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1331 0.88

PERSIMMON 520.00 374.00 520.00 Neutral Buy 615 1.05

REDROW 118.00 103.50 136.20 Neutral Sell 81 0.95

SIG 101.00 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell 2 1.56

TAYLOR WIMPEY 42.00 28.71 43.31 Sell Sell 12 1.48

TRAVIS PERKINS 858.50 715.00 1101.00 Neutral Buy 1022 1.85

WOLSELEY 2117.00 1404.00 2261.00 Neutral Sell 1640 1.41

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Under Valued


DIALIGHT 793.50 540.00 847.00 Neutral Sell 397 0.73

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 544.00 434.30 705.00 Neutral Neutral 562 1.15

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 113.00 86.75 146.00 Neutral Buy 138 1.30

INVENSYS 181.60 180.90 359.90 Buy Strong Buy 333 1.51

LAIRD 158.40 127.90 207.00 Neutral Neutral 163 2.20

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 918.00 600.50 1010.00 Neutral Sell 709 0.97

RENISHAW 1101.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1653 1.22

SPECTRIS 1474.00 1039.00 1679.00 Neutral Sell 1066 1.37

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.16 0.14 0.34 Neutral Strong Buy 0 0.65

TT ELECTRONICS 160.75 120.50 208.00 Neutral Buy 217 1.55XAAR 251.00 207.50 295.00 Neutral Sell 114 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 80.75 62.50 138.00 Neutral Strong Buy 290 1.31

BODYCOTE 293.60 225.60 397.70 Neutral Buy 344 1.56

CASTINGS 253.00 250.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 497 0.96

COOKSON GROUP 557.00 395.80 724.50 Neutral Buy 748 2.26

FENNER 454.70 280.00 454.70 Sell Sell 274 1.39

HALMA 350.80 306.30 429.60 Sell Neutral 353 0.74

HILL & SMITH 271.25 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 566 1.36

IMI 879.00 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Buy 1312 1.40METALRAX GROUP 7.47 7.37 12.00 Neutral Neutral 8 0.85

MORGAN C RUCIBLE 307.40 224.00 357.10 Neutral Neutral 330 1.73

ROTORK 1959.00 1501.00 1979.00 Neutral Sell 1708 1.01

SENIOR 181.60 132.60 190.60 Neutral Neutral 179 1.75

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 181.50 150.00 295.75 Neutral Sell 165 1.03

SPIRAX-SARCO 1927.00 1649.00 2063.00 Sell Buy 2165 0.84

VITEC GROUP 553.50 488.00 661.75 Neutral Buy 711 1.51

WEIR GROUP 2100.00 1375.00 2218.00 Neutral Sell 776 1.41


18/25



Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 509.50 445.00 550.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1016 0.54

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 285.90 262.70 328.00 Neutral Buy 322 0.50

SAINSBURY (J) 285.30 263.50 391.20 Neutral Strong Buy 481 0.65

TESCO 317.50 312.35 420.05 Neutral Buy 382 0.81

THORNTONS 9.50 9.50 100.75 Buy Buy 12 0.80

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1133.00 940.00 1143.00 Neutral Sell 554 0.59

CRANSWICK 748.50 588.50 862.00 Neutral Neutral 725 0.58

DAIRY CREST 319.90 315.00 410.40 Neutral Buy 357 0.96

DEVRO 251.60 223.50 296.90 Neutral Strong Buy 405 0.31

PREMIER FOODS 6.37 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -3 1.43

ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES 387.75 233.25 387.75 Neutral Buy 514 0.38

TATE & LYLE 693.00 520.00 720.50 Neutral Sell 396 0.65

UNILEVER (UK) 2064.00 1793.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1796 0.63

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 20.38 16.00 25.25 Neutral Neutral 22 0.73

BROWN (N) GROUP 227.30 227.00 311.20 Neutral Sell 186 0.50

BURBERRY GROUP 1301.00 1030.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 422 1.34

CARPETRIGHT 542.50 375.00 816.50 Sell Sell 145 0.98

CLINTON CARDS 10.63 7.50 27.00 Sell Sell 7 0.64

DIXONS RETAIL 10.94 9.36 22.31 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.40

FINDEL 3.60 2.20 10.72 Neutral Sell 0 0.96

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 40.00 36.00 134.00 Neutral Strong Buy 82 0.91

GAME GROUP 3.40 3.35 73.25 Neutral Strong Buy 131 0.91

HALFORDS GROUP 299.00 269.50 416.00 Neutral Neutral 305 0.62

JJB SPORTS 14.25 5.20 52.70 Sell Strong Buy 1111 0.86

JD SPORTS FASHION 695.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 967 0.46KESA ELECTRICALS 70.25 60.20 151.40 Neutral Strong Buy 225 1.27

KINGFISHER 251.30 217.00 287.10 Neutral Sell 224 0.98

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 320.80 301.80 402.20 Neutral Sell 286 0.73

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 33.75 23.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 18 1.02

MOTHERCARE 176.00 127.30 551.50 Neutral Buy 263 0.51

NEXT 2627.00 1868.00 2810.00 Neutral Sell 1687 0.81

TED BAKER 734.00 572.50 830.00 Neutral Sell 361 0.52

TOPPS TILES 34.75 21.50 84.50 Neutral Sell 20 1.30

Health Over Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 535.00 498.00 590.00 Neutral Sell 474 0.39CORIN GROUP 43.50 36.50 59.00 Neutral Sell 41 0.70

SMITH & NEPHEW 595.00 521.00 742.00 Neutral Neutral 610 0.39

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 37.63 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 31 0.47

GAMES WORKSHOP 547.50 347.50 547.50 Neutral Sell 488 0.34

HEADLAM GROUP 270.75 233.25 354.00 Neutral Buy 348 0.91

HORNBY 127.00 105.00 145.00 Neutral Buy 146 0.70


19/25



Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 582.00 464.00 651.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1378 0.77

CSR 215.90 154.10 447.00 Sell Strong Buy 5650 1.13

FILTRONIC 25.00 14.50 59.00 Sell Sell -210 0.59

IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES 558.00 296.90 575.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1201 0.96

PSION 45.00 43.88 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 2586 1.19

SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 123.80 105.80 160.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1270 1.01

WOLFSON MIC ROELECTRONIC S 145.50 96.00 312.00 Neutral Sell 22 1.02

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 862.00 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell 336 0.50

AMLIN 333.70 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2356 0.45

BEAZLEY 136.20 109.60 139.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1228 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 404.90 334.00 421.40 Neutral Sell 66 0.32

HISCOX 386.10 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 2334 0.49

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 690.50 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1850 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 109.10 99.60 143.50 Neutral Strong Buy 989 0.45

NOVAE GROUP 344.88 285.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2252 0.49

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 43.75 26.00 43.75 Neutral Sell 18 0.76

CARNIVAL 1909.00 1742.00 3109.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3770 1.13

ENTERPRISE INNS 28.50 26.50 110.10 Neutral Strong Buy 96 1.69

TUI TRAVEL 173.10 136.70 271.90 Neutral Strong Buy 592 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 691.00 590.00 752.00 Neutral Neutral 747 0.45

GREENE KING 498.40 410.00 518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 755 0.87

LADBROKES 135.10 114.00 155.30 Neutral Strong Buy 242 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1255.00 955.00 1435.00 Neutral Sell 874 1.29

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 397.30 371.20 600.50 Neutral Buy 529 1.39

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 252.20 215.60 357.00 Neutral Sell 104 1.02BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 166.20 100.60 212.10 Neutral Sell 138 1.29

PUNCH TAVERNS 10.75 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -176 1.28

RANK GROUP 129.50 109.50 153.70 Neutral Strong Buy 200 0.97

RESTAURANT GROUP 288.10 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 349 0.88

WETHERSPOON (JD) 416.70 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 726 0.75

WHITBREAD 1620.00 1409.00 1863.00 Neutral Buy 1874 1.04

WILLIAM HILL 209.50 176.70 244.10 Neutral Buy 312 0.93

MARSTON'S 91.90 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 176 1.24

Life Assurance Over Valued


AVIVA 325.00 275.30 477.90 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.22CHESNARA 190.75 161.75 264.00 Neutral Neutral 177 0.60

LEGAL & GENERAL 112.50 89.80 123.80 Neutral Buy 83 1.65

OLD MUTUAL 144.60 98.05 144.80 Neutral Sell 160 1.62

PRUDENTIAL 678.50 509.00 777.00 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 340.00 279.00 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.79


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Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 151.60 116.17 159.08 Sell Sell 87 1.30

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 102.75 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 120 0.48

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 681.50 618.50 850.00 Neutral Sell 642 0.64

CENTAUR MEDIA 35.25 32.50 73.00 Sell Sell -55 1.00

DAILY MAIL 'A' 434.20 343.40 594.50 Neutral Buy 550 1.08

EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 670.00 522.50 736.00 Neutral Sell 632 1.04

INFORMA 378.20 313.90 461.10 Neutral Sell 308 1.50ITE GROUP 210.50 157.70 258.20 Neutral Sell 146 1.39

ITV 74.85 51.65 93.45 Neutral Neutral 76 1.49

JOHNSTON PRESS 6.20 4.11 12.75 Neutral Strong Buy 58 1.45

PEARSON 1255.00 1006.00 1255.00 Neutral Sell 1038 0.70

PHOTO-ME INTL. 53.50 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 84 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 272.50 132.75 292.00 Neutral Sell 143 0.37

THOMSON REUTERS 29.09 26.21 41.49 Neutral Sell 25 0.52

STV GROUP 87.50 76.25 168.00 Neutral Buy 107 0.77

ST.IVES 75.00 68.50 108.50 Neutral Strong Buy 213 1.31

TRINITY MIRROR 47.00 37.50 93.00 Neutral Strong Buy 452 1.58

UBM 518.50 416.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1596 1.28

WILMINGTON GROUP 83.75 82.50 183.00 Neutral Buy 106 0.86

WPP 742.50 578.00 846.50 Neutral Neutral 796 1.27

YELL GROUP 5.14 3.35 12.25 Neutral Strong Buy 43 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2633.50 2138.50 3437.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6594 1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 286.00 237.90 369.25 Neutral Buy 376 0.92

ANTOFAGASTA 1320.00 900.50 1531.00 Neutral Sell 1108 1.38

BHP BILLITON 2120.50 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4727 1.40

LONMIN 983.50 941.00 1896.00 Neutral Sell 859 1.90

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 7205.00 4425.00 7555.00 Neutral Sell 1901 0.30

RIO TINTO 3694.00 2712.50 4712.00 Neutral Buy 5430 1.41

UK COAL 29.50 28.50 54.00 Neutral Sell -75 1.05

VEDANTA RESOURCES 928.00 2518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5491 2.05XSTRATA 1064.00 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Buy 1218 1.76

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1468.00 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1885 0.70

BP 481.95 363.20 509.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1245 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 289.70 257.80 469.70 Neutral Buy 348 1.34

FORTUNE OIL 11.88 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 23 0.87

HUNTING 822.50 530.00 822.50 Neutral Buy 927 1.31

JKX OIL & GAS 128.00 120.50 335.10 Neutral Strong Buy 362 1.35

MELROSE RESOURC ES 114.00 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 623 1.12

PREMIER OIL 426.20 310.00 535.00 Neutral Buy 521 1.34ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2279.00 1883.50 2402.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6377 0.94

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2360.50 1890.50 2489.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6438 0.95

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 285.00 278.00 400.00 Buy Sell 196 0.50

TULLOW OIL 1455.00 945.50 1493.00 Neutral Sell 454 1.07

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 671.00 469.90 715.75 Neutral Buy 768 1.34

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 113.00 110.75 153.08 Neutral Sell 98 0.85

PZ CUSSONS 312.60 308.70 398.00 Neutral Buy 348 0.80

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3330.00 3015.00 3578.00 Neutral Sell 3122 0.32


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Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.40 3.13 5.68 Buy Strong Buy 10 0.92

ASTRAZENECA 3101.50 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10966 0.46

BTG 321.00 210.10 331.30 Neutral Sell 125 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 512.00 433.00 532.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1033 0.32

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1454.00 1127.50 1497.00 Neutral Neutral 1510 0.49

OXFORD BIOMEDICA 3.08 2.91 7.20 Buy Sell -1 0.60

PHYTOPHARM 9.30 6.40 9.75 Neutral Sell -2 0.89SHIRE 2213.00 1634.00 2243.00 Neutral Sell 1438 0.64

SKYEPHARMA 35.00 31.50 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 306 0.71

VERNALIS 19.50 18.75 50.00 Neutral Sell -16 0.81

Software & Computer Services Under Valued


TIMEWEAVE 23.00 21.50 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 44 0.73

ANITE 96.00 57.75 96.00 Neutral Sell 56 0.82

AVEVA GROUP 1523.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 886 1.44

COMPUTACENTER 369.90 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 847 1.07

KOFAX 272.00 225.00 535.00 Sell Sell 255 1.05

INNOVATION GROUP 20.13 15.25 23.00 Neutral Sell 16 0.91LOGICA 76.05 58.95 147.20 Neutral Strong Buy 172 1.33

MIC RO FOC US INTL. 429.80 242.90 432.43 Neutral Sell 400 0.71

MISYS 283.00 214.90 420.20 Sell Buy 355 1.29

PHOENIX IT GROUP 164.00 154.75 290.00 Neutral Strong Buy 424 0.85

RM 64.50 41.50 175.00 Neutral Strong Buy 346 0.39

FIDESSA GROUP 1663.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Sell 1553 0.79

SAGE GROUP 302.90 231.70 302.90 Neutral Neutral 291 0.65

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 218.40 167.80 240.00 Neutral Sell 91 1.07

BREWIN DOLPHIN 141.10 113.70 185.40 Neutral Sell 131 0.70CAMELLIA 9500.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 16280 0.87

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 266.00 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 271 0.94

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 135.00 115.63 165.00 Neutral Buy 193 0.70

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 623.00 590.00 887.00 Neutral Sell 306 0.80

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 64.75 56.05 92.50 Neutral Buy 82 0.91

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.85 1.36 17.38 Neutral Strong Buy 3 0.64

HENDERSON GROUP 104.50 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 88 1.41

ICAP 325.60 311.60 568.50 Neutral Sell 290 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 250.70 197.90 356.70 Neutral Neutral 242 1.62

INVESTEC 357.20 318.40 525.50 Neutral Sell 225 1.53

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 847.50 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 688 1.15

MAN GROUP 107.10 104.50 311.00 Neutral Strong Buy 169 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1095.00 977.00 1257.00 Neutral Neutral 1150 0.73

SCHRODERS 1363.00 1183.00 1906.00 Neutral Buy 1538 1.30SCHRODERS NV 1133.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1538 1.29


22/25



Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 180.25 166.25 367.50 Neutral Strong Buy 323 0.93

AGGREKO 2042.00 1394.48 2131.00 Neutral Sell 1179 1.18

AMEC 981.00 740.50 1251.00 Neutral Buy 1200 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 212.90 99.40 230.20 Neutral Sell 117 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 758.00 542.00 758.00 Neutral Sell 653 0.56

BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 351.00 230.00 357.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1014 0.70

BUNZL 875.00 676.50 906.50 Neutral Neutral 947 0.55UK MAIL GROUP 230.50 192.25 318.50 Neutral Strong Buy 513 0.28

CAPITA 637.00 611.50 786.50 Neutral Neutral 657 0.42

COMMUNISIS 26.75 23.75 37.00 Neutral Strong Buy 91 0.72

COMPASS GROUP 607.50 512.50 616.00 Neutral Buy 686 0.75

BERENDSEN 433.70 402.70 568.00 Neutral Strong Buy 661 1.03

DE LA RUE 931.50 667.00 936.00 Neutral Neutral 987 #NA

DIGNITY 816.00 648.50 854.50 Neutral Buy 910 0.22

DIPLOMA 384.30 263.50 414.25 Neutral Sell 304 0.98

ELECTROCOMP. 211.70 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 350 0.99

FILTRONA 395.00 273.10 404.50 Neutral Neutral 404 1.13

G4S 270.00 219.90 291.00 Neutral Buy 364 0.60

HAYS 66.15 58.85 130.00 Neutral Strong Buy 135 0.95

HOMESERVE 303.40 218.50 532.00 Neutral Buy 441 0.67

INTERSERVE 320.00 239.75 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 746 1.40

INTERTEK GROUP 2115.00 1715.00 2148.00 Neutral Sell 1529 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 25.75 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 63 1.16

MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP. 32.25 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 53 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 520.00 425.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1154 1.44

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 382.60 323.00 567.00 Neutral Neutral 415 1.33

MITIE GROUP 267.90 195.90 271.00 Neutral Buy 379 0.60

MOUCHEL GROUP 8.50 4.75 154.75 Sell Sell -269 0.84

OFFICE2OFFICE 134.50 112.50 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 266 0.36

PAYPOINT 550.00 327.25 570.00 Neutral Buy 694 0.76

PREMIER FARNELL 195.80 144.50 308.80 Neutral Strong Buy 332 1.18

REGUS 88.10 64.00 119.00 Neutral Sell 67 1.39

RENTOKIL INITIAL 73.75 58.20 104.90 Sell Sell 49 1.29

REXAM 377.00 299.80 400.00 Neutral Buy 494 0.87

RICARDO 355.00 314.00 410.00 Neutral Buy 511 0.83

ROBERT WALTERS 183.00 158.25 341.00 Neutral Strong Buy 332 1.18

RPC GROUP 380.00 231.50 387.90 Neutral Neutral 416 0.81

RPS GROUP 204.20 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 277 1.55

SERCO GROUP 516.50 458.00 618.50 Neutral Buy 632 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 101.10 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 153 1.44

SPEEDY HIRE 19.75 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -7 1.27

TRIBAL GROUP 60.00 36.25 61.25 Neutral Sell -273 0.54

TRIFAST 38.63 36.25 52.88 Neutral Strong Buy 59 0.86

VP 213.00 191.00 253.75 Neutral Strong Buy 546 0.89

WYG 49.50 48.38 1200.00 Neutral Sell -8212 0.77

WSP GROUP 240.00 160.00 385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 541 0.92

Telecommunication Services Under Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BT GROUP 205.80 161.00 207.60 Neutral Buy 261 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 38.91 31.25 51.20 Neutral Strong Buy 138 0.65

INMARSAT 403.30 389.30 719.50 Neutral Sell 353 0.52

KCOM GROUP 70.00 57.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 85 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 728.50 440.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 491 0.06

VODAFONE GROUP 175.40 155.05 182.75 Neutral Neutral 186 0.65


23/25



Transport Over Valued


BBA AVIATION 190.20 156.00 240.80 Neutral Sell 170 1.40

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 344.50 282.00 521.00 Neutral Strong Buy 663 0.90

CLARKSON 1135.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Buy 1569 0.81

EASYJET 403.80 301.00 455.80 Neutral Sell 379 0.76

FIRST GROUP 308.60 301.80 398.00 Buy Buy 431 1.10

FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 502.75 440.50 574.00 Neutral Sell 346 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1316.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1800 0.97NATIONAL EXPRESS 221.50 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 188 1.30

NORTHGATE 210.00 190.90 346.70 Neutral Strong Buy 375 1.34

STAGECOACH GROUP 275.00 199.97 281.20 Neutral Sell 209 0.90

WINCANTON 69.25 56.00 156.25 Neutral Strong Buy 169 0.86

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 286.50 278.80 345.80 Neutral Neutral 292 0.50

NATIONAL GRID 629.50 531.00 649.50 Neutral Buy 784 0.57

PENNON GROUP 703.00 584.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 626 0.63

SEVERN TRENT 1550.00 1368.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 1356 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 610.50 543.50 637.00 Neutral Neutral 620 0.60


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uk trading & value indicator 20120118

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