uk trading & value indicator 20120110

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10 January 2012

UK Trading & Value

Indicator



Intellisys www.intellisys.uk.com 10 January 2012

of 25 ©Intellisys 10 January 2012

Contents

Market Pictures - Indices ......................................................................... 5

FTSE 100 ................................................................................................ 5 FTSE 250 ................................................................................................ 6 FTSE All Share Index ................................................................................ 7

FTSE AIM All Share .................................................................................. 8

Market Pictures – Interest Rates ............................................................ 10

UK Bank Lending Rates ........................................................................... 10 Eurozone Lending Rates .......................................................................... 11 US Federal Funds Rate ........................................................................... 12

Market Pictures – Exchange Rates ......................................................... 13 Market Pictures - Oil............................................................................... 15 Aerospace & Defence ............................................... Over Valued 16 Automobiles & Parts ................................................ Over Valued 16 Banks ............................................................... Over Valued 16 Beverages ..........................................................

Over Valued16 Chemicals .......................................................... Over Valued 16

Construction & Building Materials ................................ Over Valued 17 Electronics & Electrical Equipment ............................... Under Valued 17 Engineering & Machinery .......................................... Over Valued 17 Food & Drug Stores ................................................. Under Valued 18 Food Producers & Processors ..................................... Over Valued 18 General Retail ....................................................... Over Valued 18 Health ................................................................ Over Valued 18 Household Goods & Textiles ...................................... Under Valued 18 Information Technology & Hardware ............................ Over Valued 19 Insurance .......................................................... Over Valued 19 Leisure & Hotels .................................................... Under Valued 19 Life Assurance .................................................... Over Valued 19 Media & Entertainment ............................................ Over Valued 20 Mining ................................................................ Under Valued 20 Oil & Gas ............................................................. Under Valued 20 Personal Care & Household Products ............................ Over Valued 20 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology ................................ Under Valued 21 Software & Computer Services ................................... Over Valued 21 Speciality & Other Finance ........................................ Over Valued 21 Support Services .................................................... Under Valued 22 Telecommunication Services ...................................... Under Valued 22 Transport .......................................................... Under Valued 23 Utilities ............................................................. Under Valued 23 DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................. 24





IntroductionThe overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guidethat will identify those shares that merit their investment attention in anincreasingly time critical and information noisy trading environment.

The report is published daily and delivered to the subscriber’s personal email box,typically, before the official open of the London Stock Markets.

Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an

investment are the two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.

Timing

Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the keyfactors that influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters,these have been established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cutthrough the daily investment noise.

Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental

factors as well as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters(analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment meetings.

From an analysis of a year’s data for 40 stocks within Intellisys’ stock coverage,the trading indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate inidentifying good trading points as well as some 74% accurate for overall trendcorrelation.

The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40

stocks analysed.

Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Best Buy/Sell Trend

Source: Intellisys





ValueA similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing ‘Target Prices’.

On a daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from notonly the Profit & Loss Account but also the Balance Sheet and CashflowStatement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.

Intellisys’ architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to hisinvestment research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investmentvaluation techniques lend themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.

The resultant ‘Target’ is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the ‘Target’ as realistically valid as possible.

Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that ‘Target Price’ delivery is not only afunction of market levels but a management team’s ability to establish andmaintain a value generating operating environment set against a constantlychanging global background.

The typical investment analyst’s approach to determining ‘target prices’ is to startwith a modest range of some 6 – 10 valuation measures and remove those that

are not providing the ‘intuitive’ result. Intellysis’ approach is the opposite we useas many valuation methodologies as possible.

Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange or

extreme. However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use themas starting points to challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.

In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assistinvestors from ‘falling in love’ with a stock or becoming mesmerised by

‘management cults’.

ConclusionNo investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading andinvestment systems active position monitoring is critical for maximisedinvestment performance.

Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction

with, and not separate from subscriber’s existing investment systems as well asdiscussing investment options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish ([email protected])

RISK WARNING – Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investmentdecisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, youshould contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not besuitable for everyone.The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise

and you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominatedin a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not

necessarily a guide to future performance.





Market Pictures - Indices

FTSE 100

Index PE

3,512.1

3,512.1

4,944.4

5,612.3

6,091.3

6,091.3

6,732.4

2000 4000 6000 8000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100

7.0

7.0

7.9

10.1

14.1

18.2

18.2

5 10 15 20

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 PE

% change % change

1M 1.5; 3M 5.8; 12M -6.2 1M 2.5; 3M 20.5; 12M -17.7

Yield RSI

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.6

3.9

6.0

6.2

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 100 DY

11.1

58.3

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 100 RSI

% change

1M -1.9; 3M -2.7; 12M 20.6






FTSE 250

Index PE

5,491.5

5,769.8

9,425.9

10,251.1

12,167.8

12,167.8

12,220.2

500 5500 10500 15500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250

7.1

7.1

7.1

15.5

19.5

27.8

27.8

5 10 15 20 25 30

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 PE

% change % change

1M 1.2; 3M 2.9; 12M -12.2 1M 0.0; 3M 6.0; 12M -19.9

Yield RSI

1.9

2.2

2.2

3.1

3.3

5.1

5.7

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE 250 DY

7.9

60.4

72.5

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE 250 RSI

% change

1M -1.0; 3M 2.3; 12M 39.7






FTSE All Share Index

Index PE

1,781.6

1,781.6

2,557.8

2,880.9

3,160.9

3,160.9

3,479.0

500 1500 2500 3500 4500

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE

7.4

7.4

8.5

10.7

14.6

19.5

19.5

5 10 15 20 25

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 1.5; 3M 5.3; 12M -7.2 1M 2.5; 3M 18.9; 12M -18.3

Yield RSI

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.5

3.8

5.8

6.1

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE DY

10.4

58.7

74.8

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE ALL SHARE RSI

% change

1M -2.0; 3M -2.0; 12M 22.5






FTSE AIM All Share

Index PE

373.8

373.8

657.8

716.1

968.3

968.3

1,236.6

200 700 1200 1700

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

-203,906.0

100.8

211.5

1,240.8

1,439.5

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE PE

% change % change

1M 2.3; 3M 3.1; 12M -23.9 1M -15.0; 3M 33.2; 12M -171.3

Yield RSI

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

2.1

2.1

0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE DY

6.9

79.6

79.6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Lo

Last Close

Hi

FTSE AIM ALL-SHARE RSI

% change

1M -2.7; 3M -6.6; 12M 29.1






S&P 500

Index PE

676.5

676.5

1,099.2

1,280.7

1,363.6

1,363.6

1,565.2

400 900 1400 1900

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE

13.4

13.4

13.4

14.7

18.4

146.3

146.3

10 60 110 160

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE PE

% change % change

1M 2.0; 3M 10.8; 12M 0.7 1M 1.5; 3M 9.6; 12M -17.3

Yield RSI

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.4

3.2

3.4

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE DY

11.2

64.8

69.2

0 20 40 60 80

Lo

Last Close

Hi

S&P 500 COMPOSITE RSI

% change

1M -0.5; 3M -9.5; 12M 18.4





Market Pictures – Interest Rates

UK Bank Lending Rates

UK

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

1.50

5.75

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M 0.0

UK Lending PE

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

200.0

66.7

17.4

10 60 110 160 210

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

UK CLEARING BANKS BASE RATE PE






Eurozone Lending Rates

Eurozone

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

2.25

3.00

5.25

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE

% change

1M -12.5; 3M -22.2; 12M 0.0

Eurozone Lending PE

57.1

57.1

57.1

57.1

44.4

33.3

19.0

10 20 30 40 50 60

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

EUROZONE MARGINAL LENDING RATE - PE






US Federal Funds Rate

US

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.07

0.19

0.25

5.41

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

% change

1M 0.0; 3M 0.0; 12M -58.8

US Lending PE

2,500.0

2,500.0

2,500.0

1,428.6

526.3

400.0

18.5

10 510 1010 1510 2010 2510 3010

5Y Hi

3Y Hi

1Y Hi

Last Close

1Y Lo

3Y Lo

5Y Lo

US FEDERAL FUNDS RATE - PE





Market Pictures – Exchange Rates

US$/€

1.19

1.19

1.27

1.28

1.48

1.51

1.60

0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

US$/EURO

% change

1M -4.5; 3M -4.6; 12M -1.2

¥ /£

117.1

117.1

117.1

118.7

139.4

162.5

250.1

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

YEN/£

% change

1M -2.1; 3M -1.0; 12M -8.1





Market Pictures - Oil

Brent – Monthly FOB US$/bbl

34.6

39.1

95.5

112.0

126.6

126.6

145.6

0 50 100 150 200

5Y Lo

3Y Lo

1Y Lo

Last Close

1Y Hi

3Y Hi

5Y Hi

Oil (Brent) Monthly FOB U$/bbl

% change

1M 3.79; 3M 5.57; 12M 18.85

RISK WARNING – Recommendations and Target PricesIntellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in thispublication is provided solely to enable you to make your own investment

decisions.

If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, youshould contact your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be

suitable for everyone.

The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as riseand you may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated

in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the valueof stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance.





Aerospace & Defence Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BAE SYSTEMS 289.20 248.10 361.10 Neutral Strong Buy 590 0.63

CHEMRING GROUP 399.00 368.80 736.50 Neutral Buy 449 0.53

COBHAM 182.50 165.90 236.50 Neutral Buy 229 0.94

MEGGITT 356.50 305.00 397.60 Neutral Sell 320 1.34ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS 756.50 552.19 757.00 Sell Sell 583 1.09

SMITHS GROUP 940.00 869.50 1429.00 Neutral Neutral 961 0.71

ULTRA ELECTRONICS HDG. 1492.00 1305.00 1830.00 Neutral Sell 1156 0.59

UMECO 365.00 243.50 512.50 Neutral Neutral 359 0.80

Automobiles & Parts Over Valued


GKN 190.40 157.00 245.00 Neutral Sell 150 1.93

INCHCAPE 292.60 268.60 425.40 Neutral Sell 265 1.40

LOOKERS 50.75 47.00 72.75 Neutral Buy 60 1.34

PENDRAGON 7.80 6.80 19.71 Neutral Sell 7 1.08

Banks Over Valued


BARCLAYS 178.10 138.85 333.55 Neutral Sell 47 1.81

HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50) 491.40 463.50 730.90 Neutral Strong Buy 829 1.12

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP 26.19 21.84 69.61 Sell Strong Buy 142 1.72

ROYAL BANK OF SCTL.GP. 20.07 17.34 49.00 Sell Sell -29 1.23

STANDARD CHARTERED 1397.50 1169.50 1744.50 Neutral Sell 1261 1.69

Beverages Over Valued


BARR (AG) 1202.00 1031.00 1395.00 Neutral Neutral 1221 0.42

DIAGEO 1416.00 1112.00 1428.00 Neutral Sell 1271 0.55

SABMILLER 2341.50 1979.00 2354.50 Neutral Buy 2742 0.97

Chemicals Over Valued


CRODA INTERNATIONAL 1825.00 1456.00 2081.00 Neutral Sell 1485 1.06

ELEMENTIS 138.00 107.50 187.40 Neutral Neutral 140 1.06

JOHNSON MATTHEY 1922.00 1523.00 2119.00 Neutral Sell 1601 1.43

VICTREX 1120.00 1025.00 1590.00 Neutral Sell 1058 1.20

YULE CATTO 171.70 148.00 253.00 Neutral Strong Buy 279 1.25

ZOTEFOAMS 112.50 109.00 158.00 Neutral Strong Buy 183 1.01





Construction & Building Materials Over Valued Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target Beta

BALFOUR BEATTY 272.90 214.60 357.30 Neutral Neutral 274 0.85

BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS 94.95 67.50 119.00 Neutral Sell 56 1.39

BELLWAY 695.00 540.50 776.50 Neutral Sell 626 1.00

BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE) 1289.00 884.50 1360.00 Neutral Neutral 1227 0.69

BOVIS HOMES GROUP 429.80 326.50 499.60 Neutral Sell 190 1.07CARILLION 301.90 281.00 403.20 Neutral Buy 439 1.10

CLARKE (T) 38.25 35.50 126.50 Neutral Strong Buy 183 0.84

COSTAIN GROUP 208.75 180.00 265.00 Neutral Strong Buy 706 0.58

GALLIFORD TRY 478.00 307.50 530.00 Neutral Neutral 516 1.02

KELLER 265.00 239.25 698.50 Neutral Buy 366 1.26

KIER GROUP 1420.00 1097.00 1458.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2882 1.05

LOW & BONAR 41.75 38.00 76.75 Neutral Buy 56 1.04

MARSHALLS 89.25 83.25 124.50 Neutral Sell 62 1.35

MORGAN SINDALL GROUP 640.00 510.00 720.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1314 0.88

PERSIMMON 506.50 374.00 518.50 Neutral Buy 589 1.05

REDROW 122.30 103.50 136.20 Neutral Sell 80 0.95

SIG 86.40 76.95 153.50 Neutral Sell -4 1.56

TAYLOR WIMPEY 38.10 28.71 43.31 Sell Sell 12 1.48

TRAVIS PERKINS 802.00 715.00 1127.00 Neutral Buy 991 1.85

WOLSELEY 2080.00 1404.00 2261.00 Neutral Sell 1618 1.41

Electronics & Electrical Equipment Under Valued


DIALIGHT 751.00 540.00 847.00 Neutral Sell 388 0.73

DOMINO PRINTING SCIENCES 527.50 434.30 705.00 Neutral Neutral 549 1.15

E2V TECHNOLOGIES 108.25 86.75 146.00 Neutral Buy 134 1.30

INVENSYS 210.80 180.90 364.30 Neutral Strong Buy 328 1.51

LAIRD 152.10 127.90 207.00 Neutral Neutral 158 2.20

OXFORD INSTRUMENTS 966.00 600.50 1010.00 Neutral Sell 696 0.97

RENISHAW 1046.00 800.00 1886.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1615 1.22

SPECTRIS 1344.00 1039.00 1679.00 Neutral Sell 1042 1.37

BIOME TECHNOLOGIES 0.16 0.14 0.34 Neutral Strong Buy 0 0.65TT ELECTRONICS 141.00 120.50 208.00 Neutral Strong Buy 212 1.55

XAAR 252.50 207.50 295.00 Neutral Sell 111 1.13

Engineering & Machinery Over Valued


AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP 69.50 62.50 138.00 Neutral Strong Buy 282 1.31

BODYCOTE 277.90 225.60 397.70 Neutral Buy 334 1.56

CASTINGS 268.50 250.50 358.00 Neutral Strong Buy 486 0.96

COOKSON GROUP 537.00 395.80 724.50 Neutral Buy 724 2.26

FENNER 412.00 280.00 422.50 Neutral Sell 266 1.39

HALMA 338.00 306.30 429.60 Neutral Neutral 346 0.74

HILL & SMITH 261.00 235.00 393.50 Neutral Strong Buy 551 1.36

IMI 801.00 636.50 1119.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1288 1.40

METALRAX GROUP 8.12 7.37 12.00 Neutral Sell 7 0.85

MORGAN CRUCIBLE 271.40 224.00 357.10 Neutral Buy 320 1.73

ROTORK 1942.00 1501.00 1979.00 Neutral Sell 1686 1.01

SENIOR 185.00 132.60 190.60 Sell Sell 175 1.75

SEVERFIELD-ROWEN 171.25 150.00 328.00 Neutral Sell 158 1.03

SPIRAX-SARCO 1890.00 1649.00 2063.00 Neutral Buy 2129 0.84

VITEC GROUP 547.00 488.00 661.75 Neutral Buy 689 1.51

WEIR GROUP 2174.00 1375.00 2218.00 Sell Sell 760 1.41





Food & Drug Stores Under Valued


GREGGS 515.00 445.00 550.50 Neutral Sell 440 0.54

MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 311.50 262.70 328.00 Neutral Buy 357 0.50

SAINSBURY (J) 300.00 263.50 391.20 Neutral Strong Buy 538 0.65

TESCO 390.45 356.25 429.65 Neutral Neutral 422 0.81

THORNTONS 17.38 17.38 100.75 Neutral Buy 21 0.80

Food Producers & Processors Over Valued


ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 1116.00 940.00 1143.00 Neutral Sell 526 0.59

CRANSWICK 739.00 588.50 882.00 Neutral Sell 697 0.58

DAIRY CREST 326.10 318.80 410.40 Neutral Neutral 337 0.96

DEVRO 254.20 223.50 296.90 Neutral Strong Buy 406 0.31

PREMIER FOODS 5.72 3.29 35.12 Neutral Sell -5 1.43

ROBERT WISEMAN DAIRIES 248.50 233.25 356.50 Neutral Strong Buy 493 0.38

TATE & LYLE 706.50 520.00 720.50 Neutral Sell 384 0.65

UNILEVER (UK) 2135.00 1793.00 2189.00 Neutral Sell 1773 0.63

General Retail Over Valued


ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS 20.25 16.00 25.25 Neutral Neutral 22 0.73

BLACKS LEISURE SUSP - 06/01/12 1.38 0.75 42.25 Sell 0.27

BROWN (N) GROUP 238.10 227.00 311.20 Neutral Sell 188 0.50

BURBERRY GROUP 1278.00 1030.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 418 1.34

CARPETRIGHT 543.00 375.00 835.50 Sell Sell 148 0.98

CLINTON CARDS 9.75 7.50 27.00 Sell Sell 7 0.64

DIXONS RETAIL 9.56 9.36 23.73 Neutral Strong Buy 22 1.40

FINDEL 2.76 2.20 10.72 Neutral Sell 1 0.96

FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP 39.00 37.50 134.00 Neutral Strong Buy 82 0.91

GAME GROUP 6.75 6.20 73.25 Neutral Strong Buy 133 0.91

HALFORDS GROUP 295.00 269.50 428.70 Neutral Neutral 307 0.62JJB SPORTS 10.75 5.20 52.70 Sell Strong Buy 943 0.86

JD SPORTS FASHION 700.00 570.00 1030.00 Neutral Buy 950 0.46

KESA ELECTRICALS 66.10 60.20 162.90 Neutral Strong Buy 225 1.27

KINGFISHER 251.60 217.00 287.10 Neutral Sell 225 0.98

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP 308.50 301.80 402.20 Neutral Sell 289 0.73

MOSS BROTHERS GROUP 34.75 23.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 18 1.02

MOTHERCARE 158.00 127.30 551.50 Neutral Strong Buy 271 0.51

NEXT 2573.00 1868.00 2810.00 Neutral Sell 1620 0.81

TED BAKER 662.50 572.50 830.00 Neutral Sell 363 0.52

TOPPS TILES 25.75 21.50 84.50 Neutral Sell 20 1.30

Health Over Valued


CONSORT MEDICAL 537.50 498.00 590.00 Neutral Sell 476 0.39

CORIN GROUP 43.25 36.50 59.00 Neutral Sell 41 0.70

SMITH & NEPHEW 600.50 521.00 742.00 Neutral Neutral 615 0.39

Household Goods & Textiles Under Valued


HARVARD INTL. 37.50 21.75 40.00 Neutral Sell 31 0.47

GAMES WORKSHOP 525.00 342.50 525.00 Neutral Sell 469 0.34

HEADLAM GROUP 255.00 233.25 354.00 Neutral Buy 341 0.91

HORNBY 130.00 105.00 145.00 Neutral Neutral 143 0.70





Information Technology & Hardware Over Valued


ARM HOLDINGS 613.00 464.00 651.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1273 0.77

CSR 190.10 154.10 447.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5138 1.13

FILTRONIC 20.50 14.50 62.00 Sell Sell -188 0.59

IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES 574.00 296.90 574.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1109 0.96

PSION 44.00 43.88 102.75 Neutral Strong Buy 2356 1.19SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS 115.90 105.80 160.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1186 1.01

WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS 130.50 96.00 312.00 Neutral Sell 20 1.02

Insurance Over Valued


ADMIRAL GROUP 825.50 787.00 1754.00 Neutral Sell 329 0.50

AMLIN 319.00 270.60 427.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2260 0.45

BEAZLEY 133.00 109.60 139.20 Neutral Strong Buy 1179 0.51

CATLIN GROUP 389.00 334.00 421.40 Neutral Sell 64 0.32

HISCOX 373.10 340.50 424.70 Neutral Strong Buy 2241 0.49

JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON 669.50 576.00 764.50 Neutral Strong Buy 1779 0.32

RSA INSURANCE GROUP 107.10 99.60 143.50 Neutral Strong Buy 949 0.45

NOVAE GROUP 327.50 285.00 410.00 Neutral Strong Buy 2167 0.49

Leisure & Hotels Under Valued


ARENA LEISURE 38.25 26.00 42.75 Neutral Sell 17 0.76

CARNIVAL 2153.00 1742.00 3137.00 Neutral Strong Buy 3664 1.13

ENTERPRISE INNS 27.75 26.50 114.50 Neutral Strong Buy 87 1.69

TUI TRAVEL 157.80 136.70 271.90 Neutral Strong Buy 579 0.95

FULLER SMITH 'A' 677.50 590.00 752.00 Neutral Neutral 725 0.45

GREENE KING 482.40 410.00 518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 730 0.87

LADBROKES 131.50 114.00 155.30 Neutral Strong Buy 237 0.99

ICTL.HTLS.GP. 1195.00 955.00 1435.00 Neutral Sell 859 1.29

MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS. 393.00 371.20 600.50 Neutral Buy 514 1.39MITCHELLS & BUTLERS 245.00 215.60 357.00 Neutral Sell 96 1.02

BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM. 168.00 100.60 214.70 Neutral Sell 135 1.29

PUNCH TAVERNS 10.00 9.14 15.70 Neutral Sell -169 1.28

RANK GROUP 130.00 109.50 153.70 Neutral Strong Buy 195 0.97

RESTAURANT GROUP 286.30 254.90 335.00 Neutral Buy 341 0.88

WETHERSPOON (JD) 421.40 380.50 468.30 Neutral Strong Buy 706 0.75

WHITBREAD 1597.00 1409.00 1884.00 Neutral Buy 1828 1.04

WILLIAM HILL 204.20 168.60 244.10 Neutral Buy 305 0.93

MARSTON'S 90.55 84.60 112.00 Neutral Strong Buy 170 1.24

Life Assurance Over Valued

Stock Price 12M Lo 12M Hi ST Rec LT Rec Target BetaAVIVA 299.00 275.30 477.90 Neutral Strong Buy 435 1.22

CHESNARA 190.00 161.75 264.00 Neutral Sell 177 0.60

LEGAL & GENERAL 103.10 89.80 123.80 Neutral Buy 83 1.65

OLD MUTUAL 137.20 98.05 144.80 Neutral Sell 160 1.62

PRUDENTIAL 636.00 509.00 777.00 Neutral Sell 316 1.72

ST.JAMES'S PLACE 333.90 272.50 376.00 Neutral Strong Buy 121 0.79





Media & Entertainment Over Valued


AEGIS GROUP 141.40 116.17 159.08 Neutral Sell 83 1.30

BLOOMSBURY PBL. 94.00 91.25 138.00 Neutral Buy 116 0.48

BRITISH SKY BCAST.GROUP 707.00 618.50 850.00 Neutral Sell 625 0.64

CENTAUR MEDIA 32.88 32.50 73.00 Neutral Sell -52 1.00

DAILY MAIL 'A' 393.70 343.40 594.50 Neutral Buy 530 1.08EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR 650.00 522.50 736.00 Neutral Sell 613 1.04

INFORMA 358.70 313.90 461.10 Neutral Sell 296 1.50

ITE GROUP 206.50 157.70 258.20 Neutral Sell 143 1.39

ITV 70.35 51.65 93.45 Neutral Neutral 74 1.49

JOHNSTON PRESS 6.25 4.11 12.75 Neutral Strong Buy 56 1.45

PEARSON 1226.00 983.00 1234.00 Neutral Sell 1000 0.70

PHOTO-ME INTL. 52.38 39.50 67.00 Neutral Strong Buy 82 0.86

PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON 268.50 132.75 277.50 Neutral Sell 137 0.37

THOMSON REUTERS 28.14 26.21 41.49 Neutral Sell 24 0.52

STV GROUP 76.25 76.25 168.00 Neutral Buy 102 0.77

ST.IVES 77.25 68.50 108.50 Neutral Strong Buy 207 1.31

TRINITY MIRROR 49.00 37.50 93.00 Neutral Strong Buy 437 1.58

UBM 471.20 416.00 725.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1533 1.28

WILMINGTON GROUP 84.00 82.50 183.00 Neutral Buy 101 0.86

WPP 701.00 578.00 846.50 Neutral Neutral 765 1.27YELL GROUP 5.05 3.35 13.75 Neutral Strong Buy 40 1.32

Mining Under Valued


ANGLO AMERICAN 2438.50 2138.50 3437.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6219 1.74

ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP 268.40 237.90 369.25 Neutral Buy 354 0.92

ANTOFAGASTA 1234.00 900.50 1571.00 Neutral Sell 1048 1.38

BHP BILLITON 1947.50 1667.00 2631.50 Neutral Strong Buy 4448 1.40

LONMIN 976.50 941.00 1896.00 Neutral Sell 812 1.90

RANDGOLD RESOURCES 6900.00 4425.00 7555.00 Neutral Sell 1807 0.30

RIO TINTO 3311.00 2712.50 4712.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5128 1.41

UK COAL 29.75 28.50 55.25 Neutral Sell -72 1.05VEDANTA RESOURCES 928.00 2518.00 Neutral Strong Buy 5189 2.05

XSTRATA 1011.50 764.00 1550.00 Neutral Buy 1151 1.76

Oil & Gas Under Valued


BG GROUP 1456.00 1144.00 1564.50 Neutral Buy 1881 0.70

BP 473.60 363.20 509.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1219 1.06

CAIRN ENERGY 261.80 257.80 469.70 Neutral Buy 328 1.34

FORTUNE OIL 10.50 9.00 14.75 Neutral Strong Buy 23 0.87

HUNTING 794.00 530.00 817.00 Sell Buy 919 1.31

JKX OIL & GAS 133.50 128.00 335.10 Neutral Strong Buy 359 1.35

MELROSE RESOURCES 117.25 95.25 297.00 Neutral Strong Buy 622 1.12

PREMIER OIL 395.90 310.00 535.00 Neutral Buy 518 1.34

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A(LON) 2384.00 1883.50 2385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 6320 0.94

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B 2470.50 1890.50 2478.50 Neutral Strong Buy 6383 0.95

SOCO INTERNATIONAL 294.10 278.00 400.00 Neutral Sell 195 0.50

TULLOW OIL 1414.00 945.50 1493.00 Neutral Sell 453 1.07

WOOD GROUP (JOHN) 675.50 469.90 715.75 Neutral Buy 757 1.34

Personal Care & Household Products Over Valued


MCBRIDE 115.75 110.75 158.22 Neutral Sell 105 0.85

PZ CUSSONS 329.50 308.70 404.00 Neutral Neutral 355 0.80

RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 3307.00 3015.00 3578.00 Neutral Sell 3141 0.32





Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Under Valued


ARK THERAPEUTICS GP. 3.38 3.13 5.68 Buy Strong Buy 10 0.92

ASTRAZENECA 3009.00 2543.50 3194.00 Neutral Strong Buy 10674 0.46

BTG 326.00 210.10 331.30 Neutral Sell 119 0.72

DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS 505.50 433.00 535.00 Neutral Strong Buy 960 0.32

GLAXOSMITHKLINE 1435.00 1127.50 1497.00 Neutral Neutral 1435 0.49OXFORD BIOMEDICA 3.28 2.91 7.20 Buy Sell -2 0.60

PHYTOPHARM 7.93 6.40 9.75 Buy Sell -2 0.89

SHIRE 2170.00 1598.00 2243.00 Neutral Sell 1389 0.64

SKYEPHARMA 37.50 31.50 66.13 Neutral Strong Buy 281 0.71

VERNALIS 19.75 18.75 50.00 Neutral Sell -19 0.81

Software & Computer Services Over Valued


TIMEWEAVE 23.50 21.50 27.00 Neutral Strong Buy 43 0.73

ANITE 94.50 57.75 95.00 Neutral Sell 53 0.82

AVEVA GROUP 1479.00 1298.00 1799.00 Neutral Sell 857 1.44

COMPUTACENTER 345.90 324.70 490.00 Neutral Strong Buy 795 1.07

KOFAX 240.00 225.00 535.00 Neutral Neutral 243 1.05

INNOVATION GROUP 20.25 15.00 23.00 Neutral Sell 15 0.91

LOGICA 67.00 58.95 147.20 Neutral Strong Buy 161 1.33

MICRO FOCUS INTL. 403.70 239.40 426.20 Neutral Neutral 388 0.71

MISYS 243.00 214.90 420.20 Neutral Buy 335 1.29

PHOENIX IT GROUP 155.00 154.75 290.00 Neutral Strong Buy 401 0.85

RM 63.00 41.50 175.00 Neutral Strong Buy 328 0.39

FIDESSA GROUP 1614.00 1444.00 2109.00 Neutral Sell 1493 0.79

SAGE GROUP 299.70 231.70 302.00 Neutral Sell 280 0.65

Speciality & Other Finance Over Valued


ABERDEEN ASSET MAN. 216.00 167.80 240.00 Neutral Sell 85 1.07BREWIN DOLPHIN 140.00 113.70 185.40 Neutral Sell 124 0.70

CAMELLIA 9362.00 8800.00 10950.00 Neutral Strong Buy 15461 0.87

CHARLES STANLEY GROUP 270.00 240.00 350.00 Neutral Neutral 257 0.94

CHARLES TAYLOR CNSL. 127.50 115.63 165.00 Neutral Buy 179 0.70

CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP 598.50 590.00 888.50 Neutral Sell 271 0.80

F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT 59.50 56.05 92.50 Neutral Buy 79 0.91

HELPHIRE GROUP 1.90 1.36 17.38 Neutral Strong Buy 4 0.64

HENDERSON GROUP 97.80 95.05 173.10 Neutral Sell 83 1.41

ICAP 312.10 311.60 570.50 Neutral Sell 270 1.08

INTERMEDIATE CAPITAL GP. 227.60 197.90 360.30 Neutral Neutral 220 1.62

INVESTEC 335.50 318.40 534.00 Neutral Sell 195 1.53

LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP 779.50 756.50 1076.00 Neutral Sell 632 1.15

MAN GROUP 107.30 107.30 311.00 Neutral Buy 161 1.27

RATHBONE BROTHERS 1038.00 977.00 1257.00 Neutral Neutral 1117 0.73

SCHRODERS 1256.00 1183.00 1922.00 Neutral Buy 1474 1.30

SCHRODERS NV 1027.00 970.00 1554.00 Neutral Buy 1474 1.29





Support Services Under Valued


ACAL 167.50 166.25 367.50 Neutral Strong Buy 319 0.93

AGGREKO 2131.00 1394.48 2131.00 Sell Sell 1181 1.18

AMEC 961.50 740.50 1251.00 Neutral Buy 1198 1.01

ASHTEAD GROUP 225.00 99.40 230.20 Neutral Sell 114 1.50

BABCOCK INTL. 738.50 542.00 738.50 Neutral Sell 650 0.56BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS. 345.00 230.00 348.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1011 0.70

BUNZL 892.00 676.50 892.00 Neutral Neutral 943 0.55

UK MAIL GROUP 232.50 192.25 331.00 Neutral Strong Buy 510 0.28

CAPITA 641.50 611.50 786.50 Neutral Neutral 658 0.42

COMMUNISIS 28.13 23.75 37.00 Neutral Strong Buy 89 0.72

COMPASS GROUP 605.00 512.50 616.00 Neutral Buy 684 0.75

BERENDSEN 441.60 402.70 568.00 Neutral Buy 655 1.03

DE LA RUE 905.00 667.00 936.00 Neutral Neutral 993 #NA

DIGNITY 842.50 648.50 854.50 Neutral Neutral 926 0.22

DIPLOMA 359.70 263.50 414.25 Neutral Sell 302 0.98

ELECTROCOMP. 205.50 182.20 294.90 Neutral Strong Buy 349 0.99

FILTRONA 399.50 250.00 399.90 Sell Neutral 404 1.13

G4S 272.40 219.90 291.00 Neutral Buy 362 0.60

HAYS 65.35 58.85 132.40 Neutral Strong Buy 134 0.95

HOMESERVE 300.00 218.50 532.00 Neutral Buy 442 0.67INTERSERVE 317.00 234.00 341.25 Neutral Strong Buy 742 1.40

INTERTEK GROUP 2088.00 1715.00 2148.00 Neutral Sell 1529 0.86

JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP 25.25 25.25 36.00 Neutral Strong Buy 63 1.16

MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP. 32.00 27.75 45.50 Neutral Strong Buy 52 0.67

MENZIES (JOHN) 526.00 425.00 550.00 Neutral Strong Buy 1147 1.44

MICHAEL PAGE INTL. 346.20 323.00 567.00 Neutral Buy 414 1.33

MITIE GROUP 270.90 195.90 270.90 Neutral Buy 377 0.60

MOUCHEL GROUP 4.99 4.95 154.75 Neutral Sell -268 0.84

OFFICE2OFFICE 138.50 112.50 166.50 Neutral Strong Buy 263 0.36

PAYPOINT 550.00 327.25 570.00 Neutral Buy 695 0.76

PREMIER FARNELL 190.00 144.50 308.80 Neutral Strong Buy 332 1.18

REGUS 85.00 64.00 119.00 Neutral Sell 66 1.39

RENTOKIL INITIAL 66.00 58.20 104.90 Neutral Sell 48 1.29

REXAM 364.20 299.80 400.00 Neutral Buy 489 0.87

RICARDO 380.00 305.00 410.00 Neutral Buy 511 0.83

ROBERT WALTERS 169.50 158.25 347.00 Neutral Strong Buy 330 1.18

RPC GROUP 381.40 231.50 384.80 Sell Neutral 414 0.81

RPS GROUP 187.30 156.60 253.00 Neutral Buy 275 1.55

SERCO GROUP 500.00 458.00 618.50 Neutral Buy 630 0.57

SHANKS GROUP 97.00 90.80 130.90 Neutral Strong Buy 152 1.44

SPEEDY HIRE 19.75 18.50 34.00 Neutral Sell -8 1.27

TRIBAL GROUP 45.25 36.25 51.00 Neutral Sell -266 0.54

TRIFAST 38.25 36.25 52.88 Neutral Strong Buy 58 0.86

VP 223.25 191.00 253.75 Neutral Strong Buy 543 0.89

WYG 52.50 48.38 1237.51 Neutral Sell -8366 0.77

WSP GROUP 223.00 160.00 385.00 Neutral Strong Buy 536 0.92

Telecommunication Services Under Valued


BT GROUP 196.40 161.00 204.10 Neutral Buy 258 0.92

CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS. 36.99 31.25 51.20 Neutral Strong Buy 137 0.65

INMARSAT 420.70 389.30 719.50 Neutral Sell 356 0.52

KCOM GROUP 69.00 57.50 84.00 Neutral Buy 84 1.27

TELECOM PLUS 720.00 433.00 802.00 Neutral Sell 481 0.06

VODAFONE GROUP 177.10 155.05 182.75 Neutral Neutral 186 0.65





Transport Under Valued


BBA AVIATION 179.40 156.00 240.80 Neutral Neutral 171 1.40

BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS. 330.00 282.00 545.00 Neutral Strong Buy 666 0.90

CLARKSON 1172.00 1015.00 1355.00 Neutral Buy 1569 0.81

EASYJET 403.30 301.00 465.00 Neutral Sell 381 0.76

FIRST GROUP 333.20 301.80 406.30 Neutral Buy 431 1.10FISHER(JAMES)& SONS 515.00 440.50 574.00 Neutral Sell 346 0.83

GO-AHEAD GROUP 1355.00 1190.00 1598.00 Neutral Buy 1807 0.97

NATIONAL EXPRESS 221.00 201.60 270.20 Neutral Sell 189 1.30

NORTHGATE 199.00 190.90 346.70 Neutral Strong Buy 373 1.34

STAGECOACH GROUP 267.60 199.97 272.41 Neutral Sell 210 0.90

WINCANTON 67.00 56.00 162.50 Neutral Strong Buy 165 0.86

Utilities Under Valued


CENTRICA 286.10 278.80 345.80 Neutral Neutral 291 0.50

NATIONAL GRID 624.00 530.00 649.50 Neutral Buy 784 0.57

PENNON GROUP 717.00 584.50 737.50 Neutral Sell 626 0.63

SEVERN TRENT 1528.00 1368.00 1600.00 Neutral Sell 1356 0.47

UNITED UTILITIES GROUP 612.00 543.50 637.00 Neutral Neutral 621 0.60





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uk trading & value indicator 20120110

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