uk feedback on delta v3.0
DESCRIPTION
UK feedback on Delta V3.0. Presented by : John Stedman, Daniel Brookes, Keith Vincent, Emily Connolly 10 April 2013. Outline. Practical aspects Other aspects covered in accompanying presentation Use of models for UK compliance assessments Feedback provided last year Using Delta V3.0 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
UK feedback on Delta V3.0
Presented by: John Stedman, Daniel Brookes, Keith Vincent, Emily Connolly10 April 2013
Outline
• Practical aspects• Other aspects covered in accompanying
presentation– Use of models for UK compliance assessments– Feedback provided last year– Using Delta V3.0– Conclusions and recommendations
• Views of the UK Competent Authorities
2
Models for UK compliance assessments
– Pollution Climate Mapping (PCM) models as supplementary assessment methods for annual compliance assessment (Decision 2004/461/EC)
– SO2, NOx, NO2, PM10, Pb, C6H6, O3, PM2.5, As, Cd, Ni and B[a]P
– Annual mean– Pollutant specific metrics
• High percentiles for SO2 and AOT40 and days above threshold for O3
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Models for UK compliance assessments
– Pragmatic dispersion model• Large point sources – modelled using the air dispersion
model ADMS and emissions estimates from the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI)
• Small point sources – modelled using the small points model and NAEI emissions
• Distant sources – characterised by the rural background concentration. From measurements or results from other models
• Area sources – modelled using a dispersion kernel and emissions estimates from the NAEI.
• Roadside increment model for traffic locations
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Models for UK compliance assessments
– Assessment is based on a combination of measurement data and model results. The compliance status for each zone is based on the maximum of the measured and modelled concentrations
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Models for UK compliance assessments
– The models are designed to assess compliance at locations defined within the directives
• Urban (and Rural) Background locations: 1 km x 1 km grid squares representative of the exposure of the general population
• Traffic locations: ~9000 receptors 4 m from the kerb of major roads in urban areas (to be representative of more than 100m segment and more than 25m from junctions.
– The same models are used for• Extent of exceedance• Source apportionment• Projections for the development of air quality plans• Consistent with the assessment for the reference year
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Feedback from 2012
• Easier input of annual mean data • 75% data capture threshold
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Delta V3.0: PCM model results for NO2 in 2010
– Problems with file headers now resolved• Manual had • an additional “;”
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Delta V3.0: PCM model results for NO2 in 2010
– In previous version had to enter 8760 identical values• If you do this in V3.0 DQO for hourly are used in the plot
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Delta V3.0: PCM model results for NO2 in 2010
– Parameter values in V3.0 (left) are not consistent with the paper circulated on 5 March 2013 (right)
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM NO2 2010, k= 2, urlv=0.12, alpha=0.02, Np=5.6, Nnp=11.2, LV=200,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=1.502
PCM NO2 2010
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM NO2 2010, k= 2, urlv=0.12, alpha=0.02, Np=4.7, Nnp=6.7, LV=200,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=1.329
PCM NO2 2010
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
Delta V3.0: NO2 in 2010 and 2011
– Model performance varies from year to year• Using parameters from 5 March 2013 paper
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM NO2 2010, k= 2, urlv=0.12, alpha=0.02, Np=4.7, Nnp=6.7, LV=200,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=1.329
PCM NO2 2010
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM NO2 2011, k= 2, urlv=0.12, alpha=0.02, Np=4.7, Nnp=6.7, LV=200,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=0.86
PCM NO2 2011
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
Delta V3.0: NO2 2011
– With (left) and without 2 term (right)• Using parameters from 5 March 2013 paper
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM NO2 2011, k= 2, urlv=0.12, alpha=0.02, Np=4.7, Nnp=6.7, LV=200,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=0.86
PCM NO2 2011
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM NO2 2011, k= 2, urlv=0.12, alpha=0.02, Np=4.7, Nnp=6.7, LV=200,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=0.931
PCM NO2 2011
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
Delta V3.0: PCM PM10 in 2010
– Reproduced in spreadsheet calculations
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM PM10 2010, k= 2, urlv=0.115, alpha=0.19, Np=40, Nnp=40, LV=50,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=2.972
PCM PM10 2010
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
Delta V3.0: PCM PM10 in 2010
– Using parameter values from 5 March paper (left)– Using parameters for TEOM (FDMS) (right)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM PM10 2010, k= 2, urlv=0.138, alpha=0.02, Np=40, Nnp=1, LV=50,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=1.342
PCM PM10 2010
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40
Mod
elle
d (µ
g m-3
)
Measured (µg m-3)
PCM PM10 2010, k= 2, urlv=0.169, alpha=0.023, Np=40, Nnp=1, LV=50,|BIAS|/2U for 90%ile station=1.027
PCM PM10 2010
y = x
y+2U
y-2U
Conclusions and recommendations
• Input of annual data much easier• Parameters in Delta V3.0 do are not consistent
with the circulated paper– Assessment of model performance is highly sensitive
to the selection of parameters• Recommendations
– Include parameter values in Delta plots for version control
– Allow users to choose non-default values to explore sensitivities
– Will need to address all the AQD and DD4 pollutants
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