ubs cio year ahead 2013 en

7/30/2019 UBS CIO Year Ahead 2013 En

1/48

9?=37 ^lj sjmycl dby

uejkn cbh~ehzjs

^lj qjeal~ bd

mssj~ mkkbcm~ebh

Yes`s mhn scjhmyebs

CEB

Ujmy MljmnCEB Qjmk~l Fmmajfj~Njcjfijy 9?=9


2/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=39

3 E~ybnc~eb

4 ^lj qjeal~ bd mj~ mkkbcm~eb

Kba&~jf bz~kbb`

=? ^lj lmpj bd ~lj qbykn

~b cbfj

=9 ^ljzcjy~me~ubdem~eb

S~m~jau=4 _be~ebea pby~dbkeb

dby ~lj jmy mljmn

=1 Abtjyfj~ ibn

=5 J}e~ej

9= Cbypbym~j ibn

93 Jfjyaea fmyj~ ibn

9> Cyyjcej

9: Cbffbne~ej

94 B~ljy b~ymne~ebmk mj~ ckmj

Etjs~fj~ ~ljfjs

9< J}e~ej7 Qj~jy qejy

dybf jfjyaea fmyj~ aybq~l

95 Jfjyaea fmyj~ cyyjcej7

^lj cmj dby m njymppyjcem~jn

mj~ ckm

3? J}e~ej7 Aj~~ea fmy~jy qe~l fbieke~

3= Jfjyaea fmyj~ cbypbym~j ibn7

M aybqea mj~ ckm

Cbh~jh~s

39 YEs`s MhN sCJhMYEBs

Fm`j~ fbtjs

3> ^lj lbea fmyj~ yjcbtjy ~ybak

3: ZSscmclmjajs~zysbzy

34 ^lj Clejj cbfjy mqmj

31 Qlm~ cbkn ab qyba2

3< Jyb cyee yjbk~eb

35 M cb~ybkkjn jyb j|e~

Mk~jm~etj scjmebs

>? E m~ebiyjms~ljCLDbby

>= Akbimk qjm~ljy neyp~eb

>9 Fennkj Jm~ jcmkm~eb

>> Fjyajy mn mc}ee~eb7 m cbekjn pyea2

^les jpb~ lms ijj pjpmj iu ZIS MA(

_kjmsj sjj ~lj efpb~m~ esckmefj m~ ~lj j bd ~lj bczfj~( _ms~ pjdbfmcj

es b~ m eecm~eb bd dz~zj j~zs( ^lj fm`j~ pecjs pbtej mj ckbsea pecjs

b ~lj jspjc~etj pecepmk s~bc` j|clmaj(


3/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 3

Eh^YBNzC^EBh

^lj qbykn nen b~ jn e 9?=9+ cb~ymy ~b nbbfnm jcbb&

fe~ mn ~lj mcej~ Fmm cmkjnmy+ mn qj jtj mppjmy

~b lmtj ytetjn ~lj jmy fbyj by kj e~mc~( J}e~ej ybj+

ibn ejkn ~fikjn ckbj ~b ~lj kbqj~ kjtjk e cj~yej e

bfj njtjkbpjn m~eb+ mn cyjne~ fmyj~ ymkkejn dby m

dby~l ~ymeal~ jmy(

^lj ~my mc~by bd 9?=9 qjyj ~lj cj~ymk imjy+ qlb bcjmame na njjp e~b ~ljey ~bbke~ ~b pybncj m jyej bd

zby~lbnb|fjmszyjs~bnjdzsjmcemcyesjsmnszppby~

aybq~l(^ljJzybpjmCj~ymIm,JCI%ys~pyjtj~jnm

im dnea cyee+ ijdbyj mbcea m iybmn dymfjqby

dby iea ~lj ibn bd ~ybikjn pjyepljymk m~eb( ^lj zs

DjnjymYjsjytjjfimyjnbm~leynybznbd}zm~e~m~etj

jmea ,]J3%+ mn ~lj Im bd Gmpm j|pmnjn e~ mj~ py&

clmj pybaymf(

^lj kbajy&~jyf cbj}jcj bd ~ljj cj~ymk im

mc~eb myj cjy~me( I~ ~lj lby~&~jyf cbj}jcj e

ckjmy m lmyp cb~ymc~eb e ~lj ejkn bd ~lj mdj~mj~( E 9?=9+ qj mq =?&jmy zs ^yjmy ejkn nybp ~b

~lj kbqj~ kjtjk ecj yjcbyn ijam e =15?( s~yeeak+

ejkn b ~qb&jmy ibn jtj djkk e~b jam~etj ~jyye~by e

bfj cbyj Jybwbj cb~yej dby m pjyebn btjy ~lj f&

fjy(Ljmneae~b9?=3~ljsjmycldbyuejneseju~b

pybtj ~baljy ~lm jtjy(

Lbq qekk ~lj qbk slmpj zp e 9?=32

Dbyjcms~eajcbbfecmnmcemfmyj~~yjnsesmlzf&

ikea jnjmtby( M ~lj hbijk _yewj qeea plece~ hejk

Iblybcjsmenpyjnec~ebestjyunedcz~jspjcemumibz~~lj d~yj( ^le e ql e~ e cye~ecmk dby etj~by ~b lmtj m

sbznmcempm~lm~ecznjsqjnetjysejns~ym~jaec

mkkbcm~eb ~b m ymaj bd mj~ ckmj( E~ e mkb ql qj

szigjc~bzyEtjs~fj~LbzsjTejq~byeabybzsnjim~j

jtjy fb~l mn mkqm jtmkm~j mk~jym~etj cjmyeb ~b

by imj cmj tejq(

Qe~l ~le e fen+ by imj cmj tejq e ~lm~ ~lj akbimk

jcbbf qekk cb~ej ~b efpybtj kbqk+ mkije~ m~ m i&

~yjn pmcj+ qe~l aybq~l mybn 3(?* e 9?=3+ p dybf m

9?=9 pmcj bd mybn 9(:*( Qe~l zs pyjenj~emk jkjc~eb

mn m kjmnjylep ~yme~eb e Clem b~ bd ~lj qm+ byj|pjc~m~eb e ~lm~ 9?=3 qekk ij m fbyj ~mikj jmy e pbke&

~ec+ mn pbke~ecem qekk fmmaj ~b mtben fmgby pbkec

iknjy(

9?=37 ^lj sjmycldby uejkn cbh~ehzjsMkj|mhnjy S( Dyejnfmh+AbimClejdEtjs~fj~BdcjyQjm~lFmmajfj~


4/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3>

Eh^YBNzC^EBh

^lj ZS qmk`eha m scmk ~eal~ybpj

E ~lj zs+ qj j|pjc~ fbnjym~j jcbbfec aybq~l bd keal~k

mibtj9*dby9?=3szppby~jniu~ljDjnjymYjsjytjs

lealk j|pmebmy fbj~my pbkec+ mn fbyj pbe~etj

jq dybf ~lj zs lbea fmyj~(

M j }j~eb dby 9?=3 e qlj~ljy pbke~ecem qekk j ~lj

iyjm~leaspmcj~lm~~ljDjnlmsaetj~ljf~bpzslmljmn

qe~lnedcz~yjdbyfs(M~~lj~efjbdqye~eajab~em~ebs

myjznjyqmubmsbz~eb~b~ljZSscmce(^ljfjyj

cjy~me~ lm mkyjmn kjn ~b m i~m~emk njckej e ie&

jssetjs~fj~(Cjmyjmnjyslepb~ljscmceesszjqe

ij cye~ecmk e bynjy ~b yjpmey ~lj ~ymfeeb fjclmef

ij~qjj~ljmc~ebsbd~ljDjnmn~ljeyjjc~b~ljyjm

jcbbf(

^lj Jzbwbj dbf jcjsseb ~b s~mam~eb

E ~lj Jybwbj+ qj j|pjc~ cjy~me~ yybnea ~lj

nji~cyesesscmmzs~jye~umnqenjspyjmnnjjtjymaea~b

jjp aybq~l bk imyjk pbe~etj e 9?=3+ i~ ~ekk jcmpea

yjcjeb( Ajyfm qekk yjfme ~lj ~ybaj~ kmyaj jcb&

bf e ~lj yjaeb+ i~ aybq~l qekk kejk yjfme g~ ijkbq

=* m m yjk~ bd ~lj qjm j|~jymk jteybfj~( ^lj ik

bd ~lj efpybtjfj~ e ~lj btjymkk Jybwbj pec~yj e kejk~bijnyetjiubjbd9?=9sqjmjs~jcbbfejsE~mums

e~ pmj ~lj pjm bd e~ m~jye~ fjmyj(

zdby~m~jk+ ~lj pec~yj dby spme e qbyj+ mn ~lj

cbz~yucb~ezjs~b~yjmnmnedcz~pm~l(Spmeyj}zeyjs

mdzy~ljyscmcb~ymc~ebj}zetmj~~b>*bdAN_~bsj~

e~smcjsbmszs~memijpm~lmnmbm&~b&njpbse~

ym~eb bd jmyk =


5/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 :

Eh^YBNzC^EBh

cbypbym~j btjy btjyjea nji~+ qljyj qj jj fbyj cbf&

pjkkea tmkm~eb( Qj lealkeal~ m fijy bd etj~fj~

~ljfj ~mea mntm~maj bd ~ybajy JF aybq~l dby 9?=3+

bj bd qlecl e JF cyyjcej+ m njymppyjcem~jn mj~

cmss(QjsjjJFczyyjcejsmsmnetjysecm~ebm~jym~etj

~b ~lj fmgby cyyjcej m qjkk m m m~~ymc~etjk tmkjn

mj~ ckm qe~l mppyjcem~eb pb~j~emk(

_bse~ebea db 9?=3

E|jnecbfjetjs~bysslbzncb~ezj~bsjjlealjy

ejknea mk~jym~etj ~b abtjyfj~ ibn+ ecknea etj~&

fj~ aymnj nji~+ zs leal ejkn+ mn jfjyaea fmyj~ cby&

pbym~j nji~( Qlekj ejkn b fm bd ~lj ibn e ~ljj

mj~ ckmj lmtj ~fikjn ~b yjcbyn kbq+ ~lj ejkn mntm&

~maj~lm~~ljubjybtjyabtjyfj~ibnsyjfmesmibtj

le~byecmk mtjymaj mn dnmfj~mk yjfme yjfmymik

sben(Dbyj|mfpjZSlealuejnbjysmmnne~ebm:(:*

ejkn btjy abtjyfj~ ibn+ njpe~j njdmk~ ym~j kejk

yjfmeea ijkbq mtjymaj dby ~lj dbyjjjmikj d~yj(

Dbyj}ze~ejsqjj|pjc~9?=3~bijmb~ljypbse~etjujmy(

Mccbffbnm~etj cj~ymk im pybtenj m ppby~etj imc&

nybp+ mn b kbajy&~jyf tmkm~eb fjmyj+ j}e~ej

myj fbyj m~~ymc~etj ~lm ibn ~lj j}e~ ye pyjfef~mn m~ m jkjtm~jn :(:*( I~ tmkm~eb e ymyjk jbal

~b nyetj pjydbyfmcj e ~lj jmy ~jyf0 ~le qekk njpjn b

efpybtea jcbbfec fbfj~f+ cbypbym~j jmyea+ mn

etj~by j~efj~( Mk~jym~etj etj~fj~ myjm+ cl m

ljnaj dn+ dbcjn b yjkm~etj&tmkj mn jtj~&nyetj

s~ym~jaejscmpybtenjtmzmijnetjysecm~eb~bpby~dbebs

nj ~b ~ljey kbq cbyyjkm~eb ~b ye mj~(

Btjymkk+ ~lj qbykn jcbbf yjfme e ~lj fen~ bd e~ kba

njkjtjymaea cckj( J|cj pyetm~j jc~by nji~ iek~ p btjy

~lj pm~ njcmnj lm ijj ~ymdjyyjn ~b ~lj pikec jc~by+

mn ~lj ~m bd yjncea ~le nji~ ~b ~memikj kjtjk e mkba mn pmedk pybcj( ^lj yjk~ e kejk ~b ij cb~ejn

kaael aybq~l+ pmy~eckmyk e ~lj njtjkbpjn qbykn( Qe~l

njkjtjymaea mn m~jye~ mljmn+ qj lbkn ij pyjpmyjn

~bsjjpjyebneccyesjsmnibz~sbdtbm~ee~uemcem

fmyj~( Mame~ ~le imcnybp+ etj~fj~ jjn ~b ij

mppybmcljnqe~layjm~lzfee~umniybmnnetjysecm~eb

mcyb yjaeb+ cyyjcej mn mj~ ckmj(

Mkk ~lj ij~ dby 9?=3(

Mkj|mj S( Dejfm

AbimClejdEtjs~fj~Bdcjy

Qjmk~l Fmmajfj~


6/48


^lj qjeal~bd mssj~mkkbcm~ebh


7/48


Fmy` Lmjdjkj+ Ljm d Ejs~j~s

Fmy` Mhnjysjh m Fmns _jnjysjh+ C&Ljms Mssj~ Mcm~e

Btjy~ljpms~tjujmysqjlmtjj|pjyejcjn~ljieaajs~

mcemcyesessecj~ljAyjm~Njpyjssebmj|es~j~em

~lyjm~ ~b ~lj Jybwbj+ mn m jyej bd njtm~m~ea m~ymk

nesms~jysmybzn~ljqbyn(Mjyfbyj~lm~qbnjcmnjs

bdyjm~etjs~miee~uejcbbfejsmnmcemfmyj~s~ljAyjm~ Fbnjym~eb lm ijj clmkkjajn(

E pyjnec~mikj ~efj+ e~ e fbyj efpby~m~ ~lm jtjy ~lm~

etj~by lmtj m bn+ necepkejn etj~fj~ pybcj ~b

ljp~ljffjj~~ljeymcemabms(Qjijejtjemcbyj

mj~ mkkbcm~eb mppybmcl ~lm~ ecknj m kbajy&~jyf ~ym&

~jaecsj~~eabtjymujnqe~l~ljj|eiee~u~bmteam~jfmy&

j~ bppby~e~ej mn ye qe~l m ~mc~ecmk e|&fb~l etj~&

fj~lbyewbtembzyEtjs~fj~LbzsjTejq(

Qlj~ljy by pyefmy etj~fj~ bigjc~etj e ~b ljkp pyb&

~jc~ by aybq by qjmk~l+ njy~mnea by bigjc~etj+

etj~fj~ ~efj lbyewb+ mn ye ~bkjymcj myj j jkj&

fj~s~bszccjssdzetjs~ea(^ljetjs~fj~~ymnj&bes

mkqm ij~qjj ye mn yj~y mclejtea ayjm~jy yj~y

ajjymkk yj}eyj ~mea fbyj ye(

Aj~~ea pjsbmk

Sbfjetjs~byspyefmyuabmesqjm~lpyjsjytm~ebqljyjiu

~ljuajjym~jszdcej~yj~zys~bjjpzpqe~lem~eb(

Dbyb~ljyse~escmpe~maybq~lebynjy~bdzndz~zyjem &

ieke~ej cl m yj~eyjfj~ pjnea( I~ yjamynkj bd ~lj

bigjc~etj+ pjylmp ~lj fb~ cye~ecmk ~maj bd ~lj etj~fj~

pybcj e njcenea pb ~lj mppybpyem~j fe| bd mj~ e

~lj pby~dbkeb e m qm ~lm~ imkmcj ~lj d~yj j|pjc~jnyj~y qe~l ~lj ye ~bkjymcj bd ~lj etj~by(

Fm etj~by pjn m kb~ bd ~efj mabewea btjy eakj

jcye~ej m~ ~lj j|pjj bd bp~efewea ~ljey btjymkk fe|

bd mj~ ckmj( Yjjmycl aaj~ ~lm~ ~le dbc e fe&

pkmcjn( Qlekj e~yfj~ jkjc~eb e efpby~m~+ mj~ mkkb&

cm~eb lm ijj lbq e fk~epkj ~nej ~b j|pkme ~lj

fmgbye~ bd ~lj tmyem~eb e pby~dbkeb yj~y btjy ~efj(

Bjbd~ljdjqdyjjzcljsemcjes~ljtmzjbd

netjysecm~ebspyjmneaubzyetjs~fj~mcybssmssj~

ckmj+ jcye~ej mn cyyjcej( I netjyedea iybmnkmcyb fk~epkj mj~ ckmj cl m abtjyfj~ ibn+

cbypbym~j cyjne~+ j}e~ej+ yjmk j~m~j mn ljnaj dn

etjs~byscmj|pbe~nejyj~sbzycjsbdyj~zypb~j~em(

^lj yjk~ e m fbyj jdcejh~pby~dbkeb ~lm~+ btjy ~lj kba

^LJQJEAL^BDMSSJ^MkkBCM^EBh

~jyf+ lbkn ajjym~j lealjy mtjymaj yj~y qe~l kj ye

~lmmubjbde~senetenzmcbfpbj~s(Mqjnetjysejn

pby~dbebesjssyesusecjnejyj~mssj~cmssjs~jn~b

pjydbyfnejyj~unjpjneab~ljfmyj~jteybfj~(

^lj jtj~ bd 9??< jytj m m abbn yjfenjy bd ~le nmfec(

Iybmn zs j}e~ej njckejn 31*+ njtjkbpjn ~bc fmyj~

pkajn >3*+ mn jfjyaea fmyj~ j}e~ej kb~ fbyj

~lmlmd~ljeytmzje9??


8/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3

:

4

1

9??? 9??9 9??> 9??4 9??< 9?=? 9?=9

JCI Imh` bd Jhakmhn SHI Imh` bd Gmpmh

Mefpby~m~}zjs~ebe~ljmjyfm~lbd~ljmcem

cyeseses7Qe~ljjnamfjijzcb~ybjnem~ebby

njm~eb2

Em~ebmnnjm~ebmyjcbffbunjjnms~qb

bppbea ~m~j bd m jcbbf( Fm bajy jcbbfe~

mnmmus~ssjjem~eb~lybzal~ljpyesfbd~ljAyjm~

Fbnjym~eb+ ~lj ybalk 9: jmy ij~qjj =5


13/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 =3

~efjiz~es~jmnbdem~eacbszfjypyecjse~em~jn

mssj~pyecjs(Mcbqjnaeamnmbqeamabbnnjm&~eb jteybfj~ qbkn lmtj kejk yjk~jn e dmy kj

j|pmetj fbj~my pbkecej mn ljcj fe~eam~jn ~lj ned&

djyj~ mj~ iiikj ~lm~ k~efm~jk kjn ~b ~lj 9??1"9??

Cyjm~j ubzy bqhehtjs~fjh~ pby~dbkeb(^lj mj~ ckmj qj yjcbffjn

Lealku ym~jnibhns mhncmsl

J}ze~ejs

J}ze~ejs pej ~lj leljs~ q~l p~j~em d ~lj p~de ms

~lje j~zs mj ejc~ e`j ~ jcec q~l m ~lj

cpjsm~j ejs~s d ~lje lel m~ee~( Qj jcj ejsed&

e mcss eeezm mjs m cz~ejs ~ jzcj es`( M mj

mcm~e ~ cm m`j~s es js~ szppjj~j qe~l seedecm~

mcm~es ~ ~lj m`j~s szcl ms ~lj ZS+ Z@+ m Sqess jze~ejs msqj ms jze~ejs d jje m`j~s qe~l s~ q~l p~j~em( ^les

jszjs j|pszj ~ cpmejs m m ~ m`j~s

qe~l eddjj~ q~l pm~~js m ezs~ejs(

Lealku m~j ibs m cmsl ^ljsj mssj~s pej ~lj smdj

pm~ d ~lj p~de( ^lje ejs+ jspjcem e jjpj cz~ejs+

mj czj~ jm les~ecm qs m ~ljjdj ~lj mj ~ j|pjc~j

~ c~ez~j zcl ~ jm p~de j~zs( Lqjj+ ~lj jjde~

d ~ljsj smdj mssj~s es ~lm~ ~lj jjm ecjmsj e mzj ze

m`j~ cesjs( ^les mpjs ~lj m~ee~ d ~lj jm p~de+ljpe e~ ~ q j s~jme j ~ej(

Czjcejs Dje czjcejs cm j lel m~ej m djq j|lee~ m &~j j~z p~j~em( Ejs~e e dje mssj~s qe~lz~

lje ~lj jm~j czjc j|pszj zszm ecjmsjs ~lj m~ee~ d ~lsj ejs~j~s( ^ljjdj+ qj jjm jcj lje ~lj czjc

j|pszj d dje mssj~ cmssjs+ j|cjp~ d sj jze~ m`j~s+ qljj qj de ~lm~ lje ~lj czjc es` js ~ eeewj m~ee~(

Qj jcj lje m de|j ecj czjc j|pszj(

_by^DbkEb CbhDEaZyM^by


15/48

YziYe`~e~jk

=:CEB Ujm Mljm 9?=3

?* =??*

LEaLku yM^Jn ibhnS Mhn CMSL

J}ZEÊJS

CyJnE^

Mk^JyhMÊtJS

Cyjne~

Mk~jyhm~etjs

Mk~jm~etjs m~jm~ej ejs~j~s eczj ljj dzs+ jm

js~m~j+ pem~j jze~ m ce~ejs+ m pm m ep~m~ pm~

e ejsede p~des( Qj lelel~ jq ljj dzs m es~j

jm js~m~js p~de mzj(

Ljj dzs7 ^les mssj~ cmss jjm jejs e~s pjdmcj

peme d ~lj ejs~j~ sès d jmcl mssj~ mmj+ m jss

d j|pszj ~ ~lj m`j~s e qlecl ~lj ejs~( ^ljjdj+ ljj

dzs jjm lmj m q cjm~e ~ ~lj m`j~s0 ~les ddjs

ejsedecm~e jjde~s ~ ~lj p~de( Qj ms j|pjc~ ~lj ljj

dz mcm~e ~ pej sj d ~lj q~l d ~lj p~de(

yjm js~m~j7 Qj jcj m m ejsedej jm js~m~j p~&

de( yjm js~m~j pejs m edm~e ljj m p~j~em

ecjmsjs e jm js~m~j pecjs mj jjm szpp~j mcss m`j~s

~lj czj~ q e~jjs~ m~j jej~ jme ~ les~ecmq demce cs~s( Qe~le es~j jm js~m~j+ m yJE^s ddj ~lj

p~j~em d m m~~mc~ej cem~e d lel eej ej qlej

jjde~e d jm mssj~ mppjcem~e e m q~l jej~(

kms~ ~lj pssjss ~lj djm~zjs d je ~m| jddecej~ m eze(

Cje~ ^les eczjs cpm~j+ lel ej m jje m`j~

s+ qlecl pej q~l p~j~em ~lzl jm~ej lel jcz&

e ecj( ^ e~em~j ~lj pssej jm~ej epmc~ d dz~zj e~j&

js~ m~j ecjmsjs+ qj jcj mee &zm~e ejs~j~

mj s( Qj mesj s~ ejs~s ~ szppjj~ ~lje ejs~&

j~ mj cpm~j mcm~es qe~l lel ej m jjem`j~ s+ qlecl ddj lelj ejs+ ms qj ms ejsedecm~e

jjde~s( ^ljsj lelj ejs cpjsm~j ejs~s d ~lj jm~ej

lelj es` d jdmz~( ^ e~em~j jdmz~ es` qj ms jcj

ejs~e e m lel ejsedej mj e ~ljsj m`j~s(


16/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3=4

s^YM^JAu

_bse~ebheha pby~dbkebsdby ~lj ujmys mljmn

^zfzk~ eh hmhcemk fmy`j~s eh yjcjh~ ujmys lms fjmh~ ~lm~ bhcj&yjkemikj s~ym~jaejsfmu ijcbfj yes`u( Ehtjs~bys fzs~ mnmp~+ mkkbcm~eha nejyjh~ku ~b mclejtj yj~zyhs( M ned&

djyjh~ fe| bd ibhns cmh pbse~ebh pby~dbkebs ~b ijhj~ dybf mhn pyb~jc~ mamehs~ yes`s(

Demcemfmyj~slmtjznjyabjseaecm~clmaje

yjcj~ jmy0 fb~ efpby~m~k+ pyjcjnj~jn pbkec mc~eb

dybf cj~ymk im lmtj nyetj ibn ejkn e fm njtjk&

bpjn cb~yej ~b yjcbyn kbq( ^ljj mc~eb lmtj ljkpjn

~lj akbimk jcbbf mtjy~ m njpyjeb+ i~ ~lj lmtj cyj&

m~jn m nekjffm dby etj~by( sbfj etj~fj~ ~ym~jaej

~lm~ lmtj qbyjn qjkk e ~lj pm~ lbknea mdj mj~

cl m cml mn abtjyfj~ ibn+ dby j|mfpkj myj

kejk ~b ij fbyj ye e ~lj d~yj mn b~ pybtenj yj~y

mljmnbdem~eb(Etjs~bysjjn~bclmaj~ljeymssj~mb &

cm~eb~byjjc~~lesjqyjme~uqlejs~e~meamntm&

~majbdj|pjc~jnnetjysecm~ebijj~sbdabtjyfj~

ibn(

M clmaj etjs~fj~ kmscmpj

Qe~lbdcemym~jse~ljZS~ljJzybwbj~ljZ`mn

sqe~wjykmn bq tjy ckbj ~b wjyb+ ~lj ij~ ~lea ~lm~ cm

ij men mib~ cml e ~lm~ mtjy qekk m~ kjm~ aj~ imc ckbj

~b qlm~ ~lj njpbe~jn( I~ qe~l bk fjmajy mfb~ bde~jyj~ mccfkm~ea e mtea mccb~+ ~lj yjmk tmkj bd

~ljj njpbe~ e cjy~me ~b ij ~jmnek jybnjn i cbfjy

pyecjem~eb(

Dbysmdjabtjyfj~ibns~ljbz~bbesb~fzcl

ij~~jy(Msfmubd~ljsjibnsbjyjss~lm9*uejnse~

qekk b~ ij pbeikj dby d~yj yj~y ~b jjp p qe~l ~lj

yjcj~ le~by bd =?&jmy mmkewjn yj~y bd mybn :*

dby fb~ njtjkbpjn fmyj~ ibn( Qe~l ~lj kjtjk bd ejkn

b kbq ~bnm+ jtj byfmk qea e e~jyj~ ym~j cbkn

jmseuyze~ljcbzpbecbfjbd~ljsjibns(Dbyj|mfpj

m fbnj~ ?(:?(1:* ecyjmj e ejkn bd m ~pecmk enj| bdabtjyfj~ ibn qbkn kjmn ~b m jam~etj yj~y jmy&

btjy&jmy( slbkn =?&jmy abtjyfj~ ibn ejkn yj~y ~b

~ljbnbyfmbd>:*etjs~bysqbznjtjszjy

seaecm~bssjs(

^le e b~ ~b m ~ljyj e b kbajy m pkmcj dby abtjyfj~

ibnsemnetjysejnpby~dbeb(Qlejqjnbb~j|pjc~

kba&~jyf ibn ~b pybtenj ~lj ~yba yj~y ~lj njket&

jyjn e ~lj pm~+ qj ~le ~lj qekk cb~ej ~b pybtenj

~mieke~ nyea cyee pjyebn(

yjpbse~ebea ubz pb~dbkeb

By fme mntecj ~b etj~by dby ~lj cbfea jmy e ~b

cmkj nbq ~ljey mkkbcm~eb ~b cml mn abtjyfj~

ibn mn ecyjmj lbknea bd etj~fj~ aymnj cbypb&

ym~j ibn qe~l lby~jy nym~eb+ jfjyaea fmyj~

ibn mn leal ejkn ibn( Qlekj ejkn b fm ibn

e ~ljj mj~ ckmj lmtj mkb dmkkj ~b le~byecmk kbq+

~ljmnne~ebmuejn,spyjmn%~lm~~ljubjybtjyabtjy&

fj~ ibn yjfme mibtj le~byec mtjymaj( M cl+

etj~by cb~ej ~b ij qjkk cbfpjm~jn dby ~lj mnne&

~ebmk ye ecyyjn i lbknea ~ljj mj~ ckmj( Qj

mntej ljnaea m cyyjc j|pbyj qe~le ~lj ibn

pby~dbkeb(

^lj ecyjmjn mkkbcm~eb ~b cbypbym~j ibn mn jfjyaea

fmyj~ ibn lbkn e ajjymk efpybtj ~lj ye"yj~y

~ymnj&bempby~dbebiz~e~qeejumsbecyjmsj~lj

tbm~ee~u(Qjqbzn~ljyjdbyjyjcbffjnbsj~~eampmy~

bd~lessleqe~lmfbnjs~yjnzc~ebe~ljmbcm~eb~b

j}e~ej(

Fbyjajjymuebynjy~bjdcej~unetjysedubjss~ym&

~jaec mj~ mkkbcm~eb+ qj mntej ecknea jtjymk mj~

ckmj ,dby fbyj b ~le ~bpec jj ~lj my~eckj ^lj qjeal~

bd mj~ mkkbcm~eb%( B pmaj =>"=:+ qj b~kej ~lj clmy&mc~jyes~ecsmnijj~sbdjmclbd~ljmssj~cmssjsqj

yjcbffjn(

Fmy` Mhnjysjh m Fmns _jnjysjh+ C&Ljms Mssj~ Mcm~e


17/48


s^YM^JAu

abtJyhfJh^ ibhnS

YjnzcjMclef _jegmh+ S~m~jes~

Ms cj~mk im`s cbffe~ ~b `jjpea e~jjs~ m~jskbqj db kbaj+ abtjfj~ ibs uejks db fmu

jtjkbpj cbz~ejs mj jmclea les~becmk kbqs+ m

mj ke`jku ~b fbtj lealj bku tju amzmkku e cbf&

ea ujms( S~ekk+ j~zs qekk ij fjmaj m qekk b~

szdcejh~ku cbfpjhsm~j dby ehm~ebh( Qj yjcbffjhn

jzcea mkkbcm~ebs ~b abtjfj~ ibs m abea

db cje~ es` ~b jlmcj pb~dbkeb uejk(

^les~efjesnejyj~cmijdbzynmajybzsqbynse

mcj(Jspjcemumsbyfmewm~ebeabtjyfj~ibn

uejnsqbznijnj~yefj~mdby|jnecbfjetjs~bys

pjydbyfmcj( E dmc~+ qj ~le ~lm~ fb~ dmc~by ~lm~ cy&

yj~ujjpuejnsbqmyj~jfpbymyu(Lbqjtjybqaybq~l

mn mccbffbnm~etj cj~ymk im aaj~ ~lm~ cbtjy&

ajcj imc ~bqmyn fbyj byfmk kjtjk e bk kejk ~b

lmppj tjy kbqk(

Qj j|pjc~ m pybkbajn plmj bd kbq cj~ymk im ym~j

mn bk mfj fbj fmyj~ ym~j qekk ecyjmj ~bqmyn

9?=:(^ljyjmjyqjj|pjc~cj~ymimym~js~becyjmsj

aymnmkk mn ~b pybtenj m fmkk pbe~etj yjmk yj~y ,e(j( m

yj~zy~lm~j|cjjns~ljem~ebym~j%emibz~tjujmys(

Btjy ~efj ~lj yjmk lby~&~jyf ,~lyjj&fb~l% ym~j fm

ecyjmj bfjqlm~ dy~ljy+ i~ e~ e kejk ~b yjmcl ~lj

mtjymaj bd ybalk =(:* ~lm~ pyjtmekjn b mtjymaj btjy ~ljkm~ :? jmy( Aetj cyyj~ leal abtjyfj~ nji~ kjtjk m

qjkk m yeea j|pjj e ~lj d~yj ~lm~ myj kejn ~b

maeaqjsjjefe~jnscbpjdbyscms~efzzsyjm~etj~b

~lj pb~&qmy pjyebn( ^l+ qj ~le ~lm~ fbj~my pbkec e

kejk ~b yjfme fbyj mccbffbnm~etj ~lm e ~lj pm~(

Cj~mk im`s szppb~ jkjtjmaea

iu `jjpea e~jjs~ m~js kbq

Fmgby cj~ymk im kej ~lbj e ~lj zs+ z` mn ~lj Jyb&

wbj lmtj pyjn m wjyb e~jyj~ ym~j pbkec dby jtjymk

jmy mn e mnne~eb lmtj ibal~ i~m~emk mfb~

bd abtjyfj~ ibn( Btjymkk ~le lm ljkpjn ~b ~miekewjem~ebj|pjc~m~ebsmn~bfjj~ecyjmsjnnjfmndby

ke}ene~ e ~lj pyetm~j jc~by( ^le mccbffbnm~etj pbkec

eszeju~bjnsbb(^ljDjn~ljZScj~ymimlms

enecm~jn ~lm~ e~ e kejk ~b ~eal~j pbkec ijdbyj fen

9?=:( E mnne~eb+ e~ e kejk ~b cb~ej iea kba&~jyf^yjmy ibn j|~ jmy mkbaenj e~ pybaymf ~b i

fby~amaj&imcjn jcye~ej(

^lj yjmb dby cl m pybkbajn fbj~my pbkec cckj e

~ljjjn~bcbsbenm~jpziecmcjmn~byjnzcjnji~e

~ljpyetm~jmn~ljimeasjc~bys(Les~byecmj|mfpjs

enecm~j ~lm~ ~le e ~pecmkk m fk~e&jmy pybcj( Qlekj e

~ljpms~cbz~yejscbznbjpyb~dybfj|clmajym~j

njpyjcem~eb+ ~le e lmynk pbeikj bq m yjimkmcea

jjn myj qenjpyjmn( Yjcj~ j|pjyejcj e ~lj Jybwbj

mne~ljZ`msbslbqs~lm~scmcbsbenm~eblmslmnm

}e~j jam~etj efpmc~ b yjmk aybq~l ym~j+ qlecl kbq

nbq ~lj cbbkenm~eb pybcj fmyjnk( M~ pyjj~+ ~lj

ZSlmsb~njcenjnbmpbecu~byjnzcj~ljscmnjce~

qlecl e mfba ~lj lealj~ e ~lj qbykn mn ~mn m~

ybzalu


18/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3=

:

4

1

9??? 9??3 9??4 9??5 9?=9 9?=:

ZSN yjmszyejs ,=? ujmys% Djn Dzhns ym~j

s^YM^JAu


19/48


njspe~j m s~ba jibz e j}ze~u fm`j~s dbf

~lj jp~ls bd 9??5+ fmu etjs~bs jfme djmdzk

bd ~lj mssj~ ckmss+ qe~l sbfj jtj pbckmefea ~lm~

~lj cmsj bd j}ze~ejs db ~lj kba ~jf lms dmekj(Qj esmajj( E dmc~+ qj ~le` ~lm~ cmz~ebzs sj~e&

fj~ ~bqms j}ze~ejs ~bmu mc~zmkku cjm~js kbaj&

~jf bppb~ze~ejs( Ajjbzs es` pjfezfs fjm

~lm~ etjs~bs qlb mj qekkea ~b lbk j}ze~ejs btj m

fzk~e&ujm pjeb slbzk ij jqmj( ^bmu+ ~lj

ijs~ kbaj&~jf bppb~ze~ejs cm ij dbz e Jzb&

pjm ms qjkk ms jfjaea fm`j~s(

secj ~lj kbq bd Fmycl 9??5+ iybmn akbimk j}e~ enj|j

myj p fbyj ~lm 1?*( zs fmyj~ lmtj lbq bfj bd ~lj

~ybaj~ ame+ qe~l pyecj yeea fbyj ~lm =??* btjy ~lj

pjyebn+ by m ~b~mk yj~y bd mybn =9?* qe~l netenjn yje&

tj~jn( ^lj Jybwbj lm kmaajn qjealjn nbq i ~lj

btjyjea nji~ cyee i~ ~ekk ejknjn m ~b~mk yj~y bd mib~

1?*( E m le~byecmk cb~j|~+ ~ljj myj efpyjetj fijy+

i~ ~lj bk ~jkk bj enj bd ~lj ~by( ^bqmyn ~lj jn bd

9?=9+ iybmn j}e~ fmyj~ enj|j ~ekk ~ymnjn ijkbq kjtjk

yjmcljn m~ ~lj jn bd 9??1+ lby~k ijdbyj ~lj zs ipyefj

cyee cmjn ~lj kfp e fmyj~(

Njpe~j ~lj ~yba yj~y ecj 9??5+ etj~by lmtj lbq

m yjkc~mcj ~b fbtj e~b j}e~ej+ qe~l fm ~ekk cmyyjn i

fjfbyejsbd~ljfmyj~pzajmjy~ljkjlfmIyb~ljys

cbkkmpj bd 9??

mms~ csjszsjmes

mgzs~jjmes

ZSM 1(* *

JfZ * :(?* ?(1* :(1* >(3*

Z@ 5(:* 1(>* ?(3* 5(* 4(4* :(4*

Cmmm 1(?* :(>* ?(


20/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=39?

lbkn b ~b j}e~ej cm j|pjc~ m~~ymc~etj yj~y btjy m

fk~e&jmy pjyebn ,jj ^mikj b pmaj =5%(

sbfj j}e~ ijmy myaj ~lm~ jmyea ejkn ~bnm ~ljym~eb bd m cbfpm! jmyea btjy e~ fmyj~ cmpe~mkewm~eb

myjem~jniuj|cjssetjubp~efes~eccbsjszsjmyeas

js~efm~jspmy~eczmyuqe~lZScbypbym~jpyb~fmyaesjmy

yjcbynleals(Lbqjtjyqjn~lm~jtjmjymngzs~ea

9?=3 jmyea j~efm~j dby qlm~ qj j~efm~j myj kbajy&

~jyfszs~memij~yjnjtjsj}ze~ejss~ebjynjcj~yj~zy

pb~j~em(Dbyj|mfpjbzycbsjytm~etjfj~lbnjs~efm~js

m mng~jn zs jmyea ejkn bd 4* dby 9?=3+ cbfpmyjn

qe~l m 1(* e m j~efm~j bd ~lj kbajy&~jyf j|cj

yj~y ,ye pyjfef% ~lm~ etj~by cm j|pjc~ i pyjdjyyea

j}e~ej btjy ye dyjj ibn( Jtj ed etj~by qjyj ~b

fme~me ~ljey cyyj~ kjtjk bd cm~eb+ e~ aaj~ ~lm~ ~lj

j|pjc~jn mmk yjmk yj~y btjy ~lj cbfea :=? jmy

slbznije~ljfenseajneae~s(^lesesseaecm~uijbq

yj~zyssecjjmyu9??5(Lbqjtjye~esmsbmibtjqlm~bj

cmj|pjc~e|jnecbfjetjs~fj~smnesjbzal~b

fmj j}e~ej m~~ymc~etj+ jpjcemkk yjkm~etj ~b kbq ejknea

ibn mn cml( ^lj ~mikj b pmaj =5 enecm~j ~lm~ ~lj

Jybwbj+ z` mn jfjyaea fmyj~ lbq ~lj ij~ kbajy&

~jyf pybpjc~ imjn b ~lj jmyea ejkn fjmyj(

9?=37 Zkbc`ea tmkzj ms ~lj es` bd pbkecu

dmekzj dmjs

Dybfmslby~jy&~jyf~mc~ecmpjyspjc~etjj}ze~upjydby &

fmcj e 9?=3 qekk mame ljmtek njpjn b pbkec njce&

eb( E ~lj zs+ qj j|pjc~ pbkecfmjy ~b k~efm~jk mtben

mscmce&nyetjyjcjssebm~lbzalm~~ljs~my~bd~lj

jmy cjy~me~ feal~ ~ekk yej( E Jybpj+ etj~by qekk

qm~ ~b jj qlj~ljy ~lj njceeb ~mj e 9?=9 ~lj JCI

ibn iea pybaymf ,BF^% mn e~ybnc~eb bd ~lj Jyb&

pjm s~mieke~ Fjclmef ,JsF% qekk ljkp ~lj jcbbf

nmib~~bfmsqjj|pjc~(DbyClemzcjy~me~us~epyjtmek yjamynea ~lj yjbktj bd e~ jq kjmnjylep ~b dmcj

~yc~ymk clmkkjaj(

By imj cmj tejq e ~lm~ fmgby pbkec dmekyj qekk ij

mtbenjn+ jmikea cb~ejn akbimk jcbbfec aybq~l( E

cl m jteybfj~+ akbimk j}e~ej lbkn ij mikj ~b

njketjy leal eakj&neae~ ~b kbq nbikj&neae~ bfemk

yj~zys(Qj~le~lm~~ljZSbjysmpmy~eczmyum~~ymc&

~etjyes"yj~zy~ymnj&b(Descmceqbyyejsslbznszisenj

btjy~ljys~lmdbd9?=3mbqeajmyeass~miee~u,sjjclmy~% mn bn cbypbym~j imkmcj ljj~ ~b ijcbfj

nbfem~nyetjys(Msbmlealumccbffbnm~etjZSDjn&

jymk Yjjytj pybtenj m dmtbymikj ke}ene~ imcnybp dby

j}e~ej( Qj j|pjc~ jfjyaea fmyj~ j}e~ej ~b ame p&

pby~ dybf dy~ljy jtenjcj bd m ib~~bfea b~ e akbimk

jcbbfec aybq~l+ jpjcemkk e j jfjyaea fmyj~

jcbbfej cl m Clem( E cb~ym~+ e ~lj Jybwbj ~lj

babeajjndbyscm~eal~jeaefpejsmcb~ezjn

nymabaybq~lcyjm~eamljmnqendbyj}ze~ejs(Lbq&

jtjy+ m ~lj jmy fm~yj qj mkb j|pjc~ jcbbfec cbne&

~eb ~b ~miekewj e Jybpj( ^baj~ljy qe~l m ib~~bfea

b~ e jmyea+ ~le cbkn ijcbfj m nyetea dbycj dbypjyeby j}e~ yj~y(

Jmyhehas lmtj yj~yjm~jn eh Jzybpj mhn JF^ymekeha jmyhehas ehnj|js0 yjscmkjn eh Gmhzmyu 9??9 6 =??

Sbzycj7 ^lbfsbh Yjz~jys+ ZIS

JFZ AJF ,ZSN ehnj|%ZS

>:?

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9:?

3??

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9 ??9 9? ?3 9 ??> 9? ?: 9?? 4 9 ??1 9?? < 9 ??5 9? =? 9?= = 9? =9

s^YM^JAu


21/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 9=

Cbpbm~j ibs m` mfba ~lj fbs~ pbfesea

mssj~ ckmssjs dby ~lj ujmys mljmn( ^lju bjy m~~ymc&

~etj me~ebmk uejk+ qlekj ~lj jdmzk~ bz~kbb`

jfmes szppb~etj aetj sbke cbpbm~j imkmcjsljj~s mhn abbn hmhceha bppby~zhe~ejs( Cbhsj&

}zj~ku+ qj ijkejtj cbpbm~j ibs slbzk pkmu

m ieaaj bkj e ckej~ pb~dbkebs ~lm ~lju lmtj

~me~ebmkku(

Etj~by feal~ m ~ljfjktj qlj~ljy cbypbym~j ibn

cmcb~ezj~bpjydbyfsbqj(^lesujmyfmys~ljl

cbjc~etj jmy e qlecl ~lj kbqjy&ym~jn leal ejkn ja&

fj~ bd ~lj cbypbym~j ibn fmyj~ lm b~pjydbyfjn

j}e~ej+ mn qe~lb~ ~lj ybkkjy&cbm~jy yenj j|pjyejcjn

iuj}ze~uetjs~bys,sjjazyjijbq%(Bzymmusessza &

aj~ ~lm~ ~lj pjydbyfmcj e kejk ~b cb~ej e 9?=3

mn ijbn(

^lj sjmcl db uejk cb~ezjs

^ljmcemcyeseslmssjj~ljqbynsfmgbycj~ymims

yjmc~ qe~l le~byecmkk kbq e~jyj~ ym~j+ dnmfj~mkk

clmaea~lj|jnecbfjmnscmpj(Etjs~bysqlbfjyju

qm~~bijcbfpjsm~jndbyem~ebcbzn~ymne~ebmu

yjk b abtjyfj~ ibn ~b nb ~lj gbi( E dmc~+ ~lj ejkn

b ~lj =?&jmy zs ^yjmy qm cb~m~k mibtj ~lj zs

em~ebym~jij~qjj=5?

4?


22/48


metjs~fj~eLUibnsslbznpybtenj(Qlejm~ys~

eal~ e~ feal~ kbb kbq cbfpmyjn ~b ~lj pm~+ e~ lm fmek

ijj pljn nbq i ~lj dmkk e ~lj njykea abtjy&

fj~ ibn ejkn(

Ecb~yms~~ljmnne~ebmuejn,e(j(~ljLUpyjfezf%~lm~

~lj etj~by jmy b ~bp bd ~lj abtjyfj~ ejkn e leal+

ib~lcbfpmyjn~be~sbqpms~mn~bb~ljy|jnecbfj

sjafj~s(E~es~lesyjm~etjulealpyjfezf~lm~fmjsLU

cbypbym~j ibn b m~~ymc~etj e ~lj cyyj~ kbq e~jyj~

ym~j jteybfj~(

Kbq jdmzk~s db kbaj

^lj abbn jq dby etj~by e ~lm~ ~lj zs cbypbym~j jc&

~by e fbyj ybi~ ~bnm ~lm mkfb~ jtjy ijdbyj( Cbfpm&

ej lmtj yjpmeyjn ~ljey imkmcj ljj~ ~lybal njkjtjy&

maea mn cm~eb iej mc~ete~+ mn myj ~ekk jjpea

lealcmslimmcjsb~ljeyibbs(^lzsqjmyjcb &

nj~ ~lm~ ~lj cyjne~ ye bd cbypbym~j ibn yjfme qjkk

fmmajmikj(

^ljnjdmz~ym~jbdLUcbfpmejse~ljZSlmsijj

j|cjp~ebmkk kbq ecj 9?=?( M~ =(:* e~ e cyyj~k dmy

mqm dybf e~ >* kba&~jyf mtjymaj( Fbyj efpby~m~k+

by pybpyej~my fbnjk cmkk dby m cb~em~eb bd ~lj kbqnjdmk~ ym~j jteybfj~ nyea 9?=3(

S~ba jq esszmcj e 9?=9 zj ~b pjcmz~eb

m~lj ~lm j&kjtjmaea

Bj dmc~by jjpea m ken b njdmk~ e ~lj dbyjjjmikj

dz~zyjes~ljbqyjmceajjnbdLUcbfpmejs(Fmu

cbfpmej ~bb mntm~maj bd ~lj m~~ymc~etj ibn fmyj~

cbne~ebs~lesujmy~besszjibnsmnyj&mcjj|es~ea

nji~( Cbj}j~k+ jmy&~jyf fm~ye~ej lmtj nybppjn

cbenjymik mn ~lj e~jyj~ iynj mkb qj~ nbq(

Cbfpmej cm bq jtj qe~l~mn bfj nj~jyebym~eb

qe kjnea cbne~eb(

^ljdmc~~lm~~ljpyefmyuLUfmyj~sj~mjqmzmyjcbyn

e ~jyf bd emcj nbj b~ qbyy ( ^lj bpjj bd

~lj pyefmy fmyj~+ e cbfiem~eb qe~l cbfpmej ea

~lj pybcjjn bd jq emcj cm~ebk mn fmek dby

yjmceapybtenjsmljm~lufmyj~jteybfj~(

Kbqj spjms mj b ~lj cms db leal uejk

Mame~ ~le imcnybp bd m bken cbypbym~j jc~by+ ~lj

cyyj~ pyjmn btjy abtjyfj~ ejkn ~ekk kbb jkjtm~jn(

Epmy~eczmyLUibnss~ebjypb~j~emdby~eal~jy

pyjmn e ~lj fb~l mljmn( ^le e jpjcemkk efpby~m~

ijcmj qj j|pjc~ aymnmkk yeea ijclfmy ym~j e

9?=3(

Dby~ljcbfeaujmyqjdbyjsjjm~b~myj~zybd1(:*

bZSLUibns(^b~myj~zysbEAibnsqeejuij

f~jn m~ mybn 9*+ i~ b~pjydbyfmcj btjy abtjy&

fj~ ibn yjfme m fmgby tmkj pybpbe~eb bd ~lj mj~

ckm(

s^YM^JAu

Gmh ?< Gzk ?< Gmh ?5 Gzk ?5 Gmh =? Gzk =? Gmh == Gzk == Gmh =9 Gzk =9

^lj pyjfezf bh leal uejkn ibhns es qby~l pec`eha zpCbfpbse~ebh bd ~lj czyyjh~ ~b~mk uejkn bh ZS leal uejkn ibhns eh *0njdmzk~ cbfpjhsm~ebh es imsjn bh bzy dbyjcms~jn njdmzk~ pm~l

Sbzycj7 Imh` bd Mfjyecm Fjyyekk Kuhcl+ Fbbnus+ ZIS

Abtjyhfjh~ ibhn uejkn

Leal uejkn pyjfezf

Njdmzk~ cbfpjhsm~ebh ,j|pjc~jn%

^b~mk uejkn

?

9

>

4

=4

=

CZyyJhCEJS

M njkecm~jimkmhcj^lbfms Dkzyu+ Mms~

Fmmaea czjcu j|pbszj db e~jm~ebmk etjs&

~bs es m jkecm~j imkmcj ij~qjj `jjpea m kmaj

jkjfj~ e ubz lbfj czjcu+ qlekj mksb sjj`ea

sbfj netjysecm~ebh ~bqmyns s~ybhajy czyyjhcejs(

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cbffbe~u&ke`j czjcejs(

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kaael m m~jye~ cb~ej+ kjmtea cj~ymk im ~b

~m b m pm~l bd jm fbj~my cbne~eb dby ~lj cbf&

ea jmy( E pmy~eckmy+ ~lj pbkec bp~eb dby A3 cj~ymk

im ,zs+ Jybwbj+ Gmpm%+ qljyj abtjyfj~ ~yaakj

qe~l nji~ pybikjf mn m~jye~ fjmyj aaj~ ~lm~

~lj ~lyjj fmgby cyyjcej kmc ~lj i~mcj jjnjn dbym ~memikj ymkk( Btjy ~lj km~ jmy ~lj j~mikeljn m

imkmcj bd qjmj mame~ jmcl b~ljy+ qlekj ~lj njpyj&

cem~jn pjye~j~k tjy fmkkjy cyyjcej( s~ekk+ ~mc~ecmk

bppby~e~ej qekk myej dby ~lj mc~etj etj~by+ m ~lj pbke~&

ecmk mn jcbbfec kmncmpj njtjkbp(

Abq~l m cbffbe~u czjcejs pjdjj

Qj pyjdjy aybq~l mn cbffbne~& kejn cyyjcej abea

e~b9?=3mse9?=9mnyjcbffjnsleeapmy~bd~lj

cbyj mkkbcm~eb e~b ~lj M~ymkem mn Cmmnem nbkkmy+

hbyqjaem mn sqjnel cybq+ i~ mkb ~lj Iye~el

pbn( ^le cbfj b ~bp bd by yjcbffjnm~eb bd mecyjmjn j|pbyj ~b jfjyaea fmyj~ cyyjcej+ aetj

~lj ppby~etj ~yc~ymk etj~fj~ cmj( Mkk ~ljj cy&

yjcej cb~ej ~b ij qjkk ppby~jn e m jteybfj~

bd kbq i~ ~jmn aybq~l( Abea e~b 9?=3+ qj pmy~ec&

kmyk kej ~lj CMN mn AI_+ aetj m btjytmkm~eb bd ~lj

M~ymkem nbkkmy mn ~lj scmnemtem cyyjcej+ qlecl

lbkn ij mnnjn b qjmj(

M fbjm~j jzb mppjcem~eb mljm

^lj JzYzsN e kejk ~b fbtj fb~k enjqm dby mb~ljy

jmy+ qe~l bk m feby mppyjcem~eb bd ~lj jyb j|pjc~jn(

M ckjmyjy ~yjn e JzYzsN qbkn lmtj ~b cbfj dybf

je~ljy~ljZSDjnby~ljJCI~eal~jeae~sfbj~myupbe&

cejsqlecleszeju~blmppjmu~efjsbb(^ljDjnes

jtjeju~bbsj~muscm~eal~jeaqe~lmnne~ebm

}m~e~m~etj jmea( ^lj jyb fm bk ypyej qe~l m

mppyjcem~eb ijbn cyyj~ ymaj+ qlj m yjibn bd

aybq~lqbznefpybtjscmcbsbenm~eb(M~~less~maj

qj jj kefe~jn pb~j~emk dby m fjmeadk yjibn(

M qjm`j uj

^lj Gmpmjj jcbbf yjfme b m ~ymgjc~by bd kbqea

aybq~l+ mn ~lj ~ymnj imkmcj e ~yea jam~etj( ^lj

abtjyfj~ ikmfj ~lj leal tmkj bd ~lj j dby ~lj

qjm jcbbf+ qlecl e kejk ~b kjmn ~b jq mn fbyj

maayjssetjscmmnfbj~myupbecejs(Qj~le~ljsj

fjmyj myj kejk ~b ij ccjdk+ mn qekk jtj~mkk

kjmn ~b m qjmjy j nyea 9?=3(

s^YM^JAu


25/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 9:

CbffbnE^EJS

^yeffjn yj~zyhj|pjc~m~ebhsNbfehec Sclhenjy+ Mms~

^lj mzmk j~z db ibm cbffbe~ejs qekk ke`jku

ij e ~lj fe seakj eae~s db ~lj ujms mljm( M~ ~lj

smfj ~efj+ ~ljj es b jmsb ~b j|pjc~ tbkm~eke~u ~b

jckej fjmeadzkku dbf czj~ leal kjtjks( Qj

~lzs sjj cbffbe~ejs pkmuea m fbj bppb~zes~ec

bkj e m pb~dbkeb(

^ljyj myj jtjymk yjmb ~b j|pjc~ kbqjy ~b~mk yj~y

cbfpmyjn~b~ljpyj&9??


26/48


b^LJy hbh^yMnE^EbhMk MSSJ^ CkMSSJS

Netjysedu

_ybfeseha bz~kbb` dbykes~jn yjmk js~m~j

@mys~jh Imaajy+ S~m~jes~

kes~jnyjmjs~m~jfmjsmm~~ymc~etjpby~dbebmbcm~eb

dby ~lj jmy mljmn aetj e~ leal netenjn ejkn mn ~lj

mtmemiee~ubdcljmpmcea(Bzypyjdjyjcjejsqe~lyjm

j~m~j etj~fj~ ~y~ ,YJE^%+ qlecl myj cbjytm~etjk

fmmajn mn lmtj m ckjmy cbfpm ~yc~yj pmea b~

5?* bd ~m|mikj ecbfj( Nj ~b ~ljey leal netenjn ejkn+

YJE^sbjymabbnm~jym~etj~bcbypbym~jibnsmsetjs&

~by jjp jmyclea dby m~~ymc~etj ejkn(

Akbimk YJE^ lmtj pjydbyfjn qjkk e yjcj~ jmy+ i~ ~ekk

yjfme dmeyk tmkjn qe~l m m~~ymc~etj netenjn ejkn mibtj

>* ppby~jn i mkk&~efj kbq pmb~ ym~eb( ^lj pjydbyf

qjjtjnzyeaszipmyjcbbfecaybq~l(Qe~l~ljDjn

pybfeea kbq e~jyj~ ym~j btjy ~lj j|~ djq jmy+ akbimk

YJE^smyjmij~byjmcj~ljeynji~m~m&~efjbqjtjs

mn j|~jn ~lj nym~eb bd ~ljey nji~( ^ljyj lm ijj m

kefe~jn iekn&p bd jq yj~mk pybpjy~ej e yjcj~ jmy+

qlecl fjm m yjkm~etjk ~eal~ akbimk ppk ppby~ea

ib~l lealjy yj~mk ym~j mn yjmk j~m~j tmkj( By mmke

aaj~ ~lm~ YJE^ lmtj m mntm~maj btjy j}e~ej e ~le

jteybfj~(

_yetm~j j}ze~ubppby~zhe~ejsS~jdmh Iyaajy+ Mms~

M jcbbfec jteybfj~ ~lm~ ecknj akbimk njkjtjymaea+

imea nee~jyfjnem~eb e Jybpj mn jfjyaea fmyj~

aybq~lbjysbppby~ze~ejsdbypyetm~jj}ze~u,_J%etjs~bys(

_yetm~j j}e~ etj~fj~ cbfj qe~l kbqjy ke}ene~+ i~ mkbbjytmyebzss~ym~jaejs~bajjym~jefpybtjnmnsbfj~efjs

nejyj~yes"yj~zypybjs~lmfbyj~ymne~ebmetjs~ &

fj~( M ekke}ene~ pyjfef mn lealjy yj~y lbkn

cbfpjm~j etj~by cbffe~~ea ~b m ekke}en+ fk~e&jmy

~ym~ja e ~ljey ~ym~jaec mj~ mkkbcm~eb(

E 9?=3+ qj pyjdjy ~lj dbkkbqea _J ~ym~jaej7 e% akbimk _J

jcbnmyej ~b cmpe~mkewj b yjakm~eb&nyetj mkj i

mcemyfsm~m~~ymc~etjnescbz~sbd=:9?*~bhMT0ee% neyjc~ kjnea ~b cbfpmej e Jybpj+ qljyj nji~ fmy&

j~ myj kj ke}en ~lm e ~lj zs mn ~ekk nbfem~jn i

im+ qlecl myj yjncea kjnea0 eee% aybq~l mn ib~

cmpe~mk e jfjyaea fmyj~+ ~b mccj pjyeby aybq~l

mn m~~ymc~etj cbfjy nmfec( Qe~le yjmk mj~+ qj

kej bppby~e~ec ~ym~jaej e zs yjmk j~m~j mn kjnea

~ym~jaej qe~le Jybpjm cbffjycemk yjmk j~m~j+ qlecl

myj m~~ymc~etj m im lye kbm pby~dbkeb(

Ljnaj dzhnsCjsmyj Tmkjaaem+ Mms~

Cj~ymk im cb~ej ~b lbq nj~jyfem~eb ~b pybtenj

seaecm~mfbz~sbde}zene~u~bcmpe~mfmyj~sqlecl

lbkn fme~me fbnjym~j tbkm~eke~ mn cbyyjkm~eb kjtjk e

~lj jmy ~b fjnef ~jyf( ^ljj nmfec lbkn cb~ej

~lj ~mekqen dby m fijy bd ljnaj dn ~ym~jaej mn

cyjm~j m~~ymc~etj bppby~e~ej ~lm~ ~ljj fmmajy myj qjkk

pbe~ebjn ~b cmpe~mkewj b(

kbqijclfmyibnuejnsslbznijj~|jnecbfj

yjkm~etj tmkj+ ne~yjjn mn fby~amaj ,b&majc&

imcjn%s~ym~jaejs(kba"slby~cyjne~fmmajysslbznsjj

m~~ymc~etj ~ymnea bppby~e~ej mybn jq emcj m

abtjyfj~smnnyjssseaecm~zpcbfeasbtjyjeanji~

fm~ye~ej( ^lj babea fmcybjcbbfec mn pbke~ecmk ej

e Jybpj qekk cb~ej ~b cyjm~j imyp~c+ yj~yc~yea

mn yjbyamewm~eb&yjkm~jn bppby~e~ej ~lm~ ne~yjjn

mnjtj~&nyetjfmmajyscmcmpe~mewjb(Demudmea

~bc cbyyjkm~eb mn ecyjmea nepjyeb bd ~bc yj~y

lbkn ij pbe~etj dby dnmfj~mk j}e~ kba"lby~ ~ym~j&

aej+ ~lbal e~ e pynj~ ~b yjfme lealk jkjc~etj e fm&majy jkjc~eb e ~le myjm m ~bc pecea mieke~ nyetj

pjydbyfmcj(

s^YM^JAu


27/48


Ehtjs~bys hjjn hb~ djjk mnyed~ eh

~lj dmcj bd m cbfpkj| ehtjs~fjh~

jhteybhfjh~( Eh ~les sjc~ebh+ qj

pyjsjh~ ~lj ~ljfjs qj ijkejtj eh

fbs~ dby ~lj kbha ~jyf( Dby fbyj

bh ~mc~ecmk ~ljfjs+ pkjmsj cbh~mc~

ubzy ckejh~ mntesby(

Ehtjs~fjh~

~ljfjs


28/48

YziYe`~e~jk

J}ZE^EJS

Qjs~jyh qehhjys

dybf jfjyaeha fmy`j~

aybq~lYbkd Amh~jy+ Mms~

Jfjaea fm`j~s ajjm~j sbfj 1?* bd An_

abq~l e 9?== m 9?=9+ qe~l Clem mkbj cb~eiz~&

ea mbz 3?*( ^lj jcbbfec abq~l amp ij~qjj

jfjaea fm`j~s m ~lj jtjkbpj qbk slbzk

jfme db ujms ~b cbfj( Cbfpmejs j|pbsj ~b ~les

aybq~l qekk ijhj~(

Msemyjpyjsj~ssbfj4?*bd~ljqbynspbpzm~ebiz~

mccb~ dby bk =?* bd akbimk cbfp~eb( Qj tejq

Clemms~ljcjmynyeteadbycj(Lbfj~bmybzn=(3ieeb

pjbpkj+ ~lj cb~y lm mefjn ~b yjimkmcj e~ jcbbfec

~yc~yj fbyj ~bqmyn cbfp~eb(

^lj Mem fmyj~+ lbqjtjy+ myj b~ mkbj e lbqea

pb~j~emk( Qj mkb jj jbyfb aybq~l bd ~lj fennkj ckm

eb~ljycbz~yejs(Yzssemspbpzm~ebbdmybzn=>?fe&

keb pjbpkj mkb lbq tjy abbn bppby~e~ej( Qlekj e

Jybpj bfj >?* bd pjybmk ecbfj e pj~ b cb&

fjy abbn+ ~lj j|pmnea fennkj ckm e Yem pjn

mybn 1>* b cl e~jf(

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aybqsmn~ljfennjcmssaj~sieaajy(Dbyj|mfpjqj

cbczyqe~ltmyebzss~znejsmnj|pjc~Clemsfennjcmss

ybalk ~b nbikj dybf 3> fekkeb lbjlbkn e 9?=? ~b

44 fekkeb e 9?9?( E Iymwek+ ~lj fennkj ckm ayjq mkfb~

:?* dybf 9??3 ~b 9??5( Mkb+ ~lj pbpkm~eb e fm

jfjyaea fmyj~ e ~ekk aybqea+ mnnea dy~ljy ppby~ ~b

by ~ljfj(

Qe~l cbfp~eb e ~lj jfjyaea fmyj~ ~ekk qjkk ijkbq

~lm~ e ~lj njtjkbpjn qbykn+ mn njpe~j by ijkejd ~lm~

~lj cbfp~eb amp qekk b~ ckbj e ~lj jmy ~jyf+ qjsjjseaecm~pb~j~emdbycbfpmejsj|pbsjn~b~ljcb&

fp~eb aybq~l ~yjn( ^le lm mkb ijj ckjmyk cb&

yfjneyjazmye}zeyejsqe~lsjebyfmmajfj~bd~lj

cbfpmej jkjc~jn dby by ~ljfj(

Clehms aybqeha fennkj ckmssZyimh ehcbfj nes~yeiz~ebh eh Clehm qekk kbb` tjyu nejyjh~ eh 9?9?

Sbzycj7 ICA S~znu+ Fmycl 9?=?+ ZIS

Lbzsjlbkns 9?=?,eh fekkebhs%

Lbzsjlbkns 9?9?,eh fekkebhs%

Zppjy mdzjh~

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yeb bd m feeff 9?* yjtjj j|pbyj ~b jfjyaea

fmyj~ ,bfj bd ~ljf lmtj p ~b :?*%(

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jfjyaea fmyj~ cbfjy+ e pmy~eckmy e Clem( ^lj

slbzncjmyuijj~dybf~ljecyjmseapzyclmseapbqjy

mfba jfjyaea fmyj~ cbfjy( Cbj}j~k+ by

jkjc~eb lm mkb ijcbfj fbyj cbfjy&byej~jn btjy

~efj qe~l m fbyj cckecmk ~ek~(

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~eb ~lm~ qj ijkejtj qekk mame ijm~ j}e~ fmyj~ e njtjk&

bpjnyjaebsspjcecmu~ljFSCEQbynijclfmy(Qj

j|pjc~ by ~ljfj bd etj~ea e Qj~jy ikj clep qe~l

j|pbyj ~b ~ljj yjaeb ~b pjydbyf qjkk dby jmy ~b cbfj(

9< CEB Ujm Mljm 9?=3


29/48

95CEB Ujm Mljm 9?=3

EhTJS^FJh^^LJFJS

JfJyaEha fMy@J^ CZyyJhCEJS

^lj cmsj dby mh

zhnjymppyjcem~jn

mssj~ ckmssFeclmjk Ibkkeajy+ Mms~

Ms m mssj~ ckmss+ jfjaea fm`j~ czjcejs lmtj

pybtenjn m pyb~mikj mhn yjkm~etjku smdj j|pbszyj

~b ~lj abq~l s~bu e jfjaea fm`j~s db btj

=? ujms( E ~les pjeb+ ~lj mtjmaj mzmk j~z e

ZS bkkm ~jfs qms mkfbs~


30/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=33?

EhTJS^FJh^^LJFJS

3? CEB Ujm Mljm 9?=3

J}ZE^EJS

Aj~~eha sfmy~jy

qe~l fbieke~uSzhnjjp Amh~bye+ Mms~

Iu cbfieea fbieke~u qe~l pbqjdzk cbfpz~ea

m dms~j j~qb` spjjs+ sfm~ fbieke~u lms cj&

m~jn m pmymneaf sle eh ~lj E^ sjc~by( Eh bzy tejq+

~les jfjajs ms m jq cbfpz~ea jtecj cuckj( Qj

ijkejtj sfm~ fbieke~u es m s~zc~zmk ~j ~lm~

fm`js e~ bj bd ~lj dms~js~&abqea sjafj~s e

~lj E^ sjc~b(

^lj j aybq~l nyetjy bd ~le fmy~ fbieke~ ~yjn myj yjek&

ej~ cbfjy E^ njfmn+ ecknea yeea cbfp~eb e

jfjyaea fmyj~+ ebtm~eb nyetea yjpkmcjfj~ njfmn

dybf ~ymne~ebmk njtecj kej _C+ aybqea j~jypyej p&

pby~+ fbiekj mpp ~mea cj~jy ~maj e ~lj fmy~ yjtbk&

~eb+ mn dm~jy qeyjkj j~qby( Njpe~j e~ ~yba yjcj~

aybq~l+ qj ijkejtj ~lj fmy~ fbieke~ cckj ~ekk lm ~jmfj(Qjj|pjc~mtj&ujmyze~mzmaybq~lbdjmyu

3?* dby ib~l fmy~plbj mn ~mikj~ mn j|pjc~ ~lj

~yba fbfj~f ~b cb~ej e 9?=3(

E 9?=3+ qj jj yeea pjj~ym~eb e jfjyaea fmyj~

dybf m tjy kbq imj m m j aybq~l nyetjy( Qe~l efpybtjn

qeyjkj cbtjymaj+ ~lm ~b ecyjmjn mtmekmieke~ bd 3A jy&

tecj mn yeea pyclmea pbqjy+ qj j|pjc~ bken aybq~l

bppby~e~ej e jfjyaea fmyj~ m fmy~ njtecj myybq

~ljneae~mnetenjm~tjyumbynmijpyecjscbfpmyjn~b_Cs

qlecl ~ekk cb~ mibtj zsN :??( M cmj e pbe~ e ~lj jfjy&

ajcj bd kbq&cb~ fmy~plbj e Clem+ m~~ymc~etjk pyecjnm~ bfj zsN =:?0 ~le lbkn mccjkjym~j pjnea b fmy~

njtecj(

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dybf jfjyaea fmyj~ cb~ej ~b ypyej+ m qj jj

seaecm~scbpjdbyecyjmsjnpjj~ym~eb(Msb~ljqmtj

bd jq pybnc~ cckj j|pjc~jn e jmyk 9?=3 lbkn ~ef&

km~j ~yba jmy&~jyf pyclmj mn mccjkjym~j yjpkmcj&

fj~ njfmn dybf b~ljy njtecj kej _C mn cmfjym(

kbajy&~jyfqjsjjdzy~ljyaybq~lbppby~ze~ejsdbybzy

fmy~ fbieke~ ~ljfj m ~lj mnnyjmikj fmyj~ j|pmn

qe~l ecyjmjn mnbp~eb bd j&cbffjycj+ fbiekj pmfj~

mn b~ljy mpp b fmy~ njtecj(

Qj cb~ej ~b pyjdjy en~y kjmnjy( Qj j|pjc~ ~ljf ~b

ame fmyj~ lmyj m~ ~lj j|pjj bd mekea cbfpj~e~by+ qlb

fm jtj~mkk ij dbycjn b~ bd ~lj fmyj~( Qe~l ~lyjj ~efj

~lj jmyea aybq~l ym~j pb~j~emk m ~lj akbimk mtjymaj+ ~ljen~y kjmnjy myj mkb m~~ymc~etjk tmkjn+ mn dy~ljy p&

pby~jn i bken cml pbe~eb(


31/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 3=

EhTJS^FJh^^LJFJS

JfJyaEha fMy@J^ Cby_byM^J ibhnS

M aybqeha mssj~ ckmss@ekemh Yjijy+ Mms~

M abqea zfij bd etjs~bs es escbtjea ~lj

m~~mc~etjjss bd jfjaea fm`j~ ibs( E 9?=9

mkbj+ jfjaea fm`j~ ,JF% sbtjjea ibs e

ZSN smq s~ybha ehbqs mhn nb hb~ lmtj fzcl gzecj

kj ms bd ~bnmu( Qj mntesj ehtjs~bys hb~ ~b pz~ hjq

fbju e~b etjs~fj~ amj sbtjjea ibs bd

kmaj esszjs e Msem m Km~e Mfjecm+ iz~ m~lj

~b kbb` ~bqms JF cbpbm~j ji~( Qj ~le` ~les

mssj~ ckmss s~ekk bjys m~~ymc~etj bppby~zhe~ejs(

sbken jcbbfec aybq~l mn kbqjy&~yjnea e~jyj~ ym~j

btjy ~lj pm~ djq jmy lmtj ljkpjn jfjyaea fmyj~ cby&

pbym~ebs~baybq~ljeypyb~sqlejm~~ljsmfj~efj

jjpea~ljeyimmcjsljj~se~mc~(^lesesyjjc~jne~lj

dmc~ ~lm~ leal ejkn JF cbypbym~j ibn lmtj lmn m kbqjycyjne~ njdmk~ ym~j ~lm ~ljey zs cb~jypmy~ dby fm

jmy btjy ~lj pm~ njcmnj( Aetj by tejq ~lm~ jcbbfec

aybq~l e jfjyaea fmyj~ lbkn efpybtj btjy ~lj cbf&

ea }my~jy+ mn ~lj dmc~ ~lm~ 1:* bd ~lj JF cbypbym~j

cyjne~ pmcj e bd m cckecmk m~yj+ qj ~le ~lj mj~ ckm

lbkn yjfme qjkk ppby~jn btjy ~lj j|~ e| fb~l(

3=CEB Ujm Mljm 9?=3

Dmtbmikj j~z bz~kbb`

By efpybtea aybq~l b~kbb dby ~lj akbimk jcbbf

btjy ~lj cbfea }my~jy+ m qjkk m by j|pjc~m~eb

~lm~ zs ^yjmy ejkn qekk ~yjn lealjy+ fmj jfjyaea

fmyj~ cbypbym~j ibn m m~~ymc~etj mj~ ckm+ e by

tejq(AetjJFcbypbym~jibnsfbyjcucecmm~zyjmn

lby~jy nym~eb cbfpmyjn ~b JF btjyjea ibn+ qj

j|pjc~ m yj~y bd ckbj ~b >* e zsN btjy ~lj j|~ e|

fb~l( ^le cbfpmyj ~b m j|pjc~jn yj~y dby JF btjy&

jea ibn bd kj ~lm 9* dby ~lj mfj ~efj lbyewb(

Abqea zetjsj+ etjsedu qjkk

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32/48


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33/48


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34/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=33>

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35/48

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 3:

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36/48

YziYe`~e~jk

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37/48

YziYe`~e~jk

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3 3131CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=3

Jcbbf mtben lmyn kmnea+ mn aybq~l j~~kj m~

mybn 1(:


38/48

YziYe`~e~jk

CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=33< CEB Ujmy Mljmn 9?=331 ?


47/48

CEB Ujmy Mljm 9?=3

^le yjpby~ lm ijjh pyjpmyjn iu

zIs MA(

_zikesljy

ZISMA+CEBEhtjs~fjh~Bdcj+

_(B(Ib|+CL&


48/48

ubs cio year ahead 2013 en

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