Tsunami Warning System ChallengesTsunami Warning System ChallengesWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitWoods Hole Oceanographic Instituteute

October 30, 2006October 30, 2006

Paul WhitmorePaul Whitmore

NOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning CenterNOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

Tsunami Warning Philosophy Tsunami Warning Philosophy

The PRIME directive:The PRIME directive: Get the warning out prior to wave impact on the coast!!!Get the warning out prior to wave impact on the coast!!!

But wait… the phenomena can’t be observed prior to But wait… the phenomena can’t be observed prior to impact on the nearest coasts.impact on the nearest coasts.

OK… issue the warning based on associated OK… issue the warning based on associated phenomena (i.e., seismic recordings)phenomena (i.e., seismic recordings)

The PROBLEM:The PROBLEM: There is not a one-to-one correspondence between There is not a one-to-one correspondence between

seismic recordings and tsunami generation seismic recordings and tsunami generation The RESULT:The RESULT:

Tsunami warnings occasionally get issued with no resulting Tsunami warnings occasionally get issued with no resulting impactimpact

Tsunami Warning Philosophy Tsunami Warning Philosophy The HOPE:The HOPE:

Be able to observe the phenomena directly prior to first impactBe able to observe the phenomena directly prior to first impact The REALITY:The REALITY:

A denser DART network and forecasting tools will allow us to estimate A denser DART network and forecasting tools will allow us to estimate danger prior to impact for distant tsunamisdanger prior to impact for distant tsunamis

The DART network and an improved tide gage network will allow faster The DART network and an improved tide gage network will allow faster warning cancellations for regional eventswarning cancellations for regional events

We are not able to verify the wave prior to impact near source and will We are not able to verify the wave prior to impact near source and will not be able to in the near future.not be able to in the near future.

Tsunami Warning System Tsunami Warning System

Three basic components:Three basic components: The Warning CenterThe Warning Center

Acquires observational dataAcquires observational data Processes the dataProcesses the data Makes decisions based on observations and protocolsMakes decisions based on observations and protocols Disseminates warningsDisseminates warnings

Communication systems which carry warnings to Communication systems which carry warnings to emergency management officials and the publicemergency management officials and the public NOAA Weather WireNOAA Weather Wire NOAA Weather Radio/Emergency Alert SystemNOAA Weather Radio/Emergency Alert System Etc.Etc.

Emergency Management Infrastructure Emergency Management Infrastructure Prepares itself and local populations for eventsPrepares itself and local populations for events Transmits warnings to publicTransmits warnings to public Conducts evacuationsConducts evacuations

Tsunami Warning System Tsunami Warning System

Two associated components:Two associated components: ResearchResearch

Enhances the capabilities of the warning systemEnhances the capabilities of the warning system Provides emergency management best estimation of Provides emergency management best estimation of

the tsunami hazard zonethe tsunami hazard zone Public EducationPublic Education

Alert coastal populations and visitors of their hazard and Alert coastal populations and visitors of their hazard and proper response to both official warnings and nature’s proper response to both official warnings and nature’s warningswarnings

WC/ATWC Area-of-WC/ATWC Area-of-ResponsibilityResponsibility

WC/ATWC AORWC/ATWC AOR Western:Western:

CaliforniaCalifornia OregonOregon WashingtonWashington British ColumbiaBritish Columbia Alaska Alaska

EasternEastern U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastU.S. Gulf of Mexico coast U.S. Atlantic coastU.S. Atlantic coast Eastern CanadaEastern Canada

PTWC AOR:PTWC AOR: HawaiiHawaii Pacific outside WCATWC AORPacific outside WCATWC AOR Interim Puerto Rico/VI/CaribbeanInterim Puerto Rico/VI/Caribbean Interim Indian O.Interim Indian O.

WC/ATWC StaffWC/ATWC Staff

15 staff15 staff DirectorDirector TWSOTWSO 5 Sr. Watchstanders5 Sr. Watchstanders 4 Watchstanders4 Watchstanders

OceanographyOceanography GeophysicsGeophysics Physical SciencePhysical Science

1 ITO1 ITO 1 Senior ET1 Senior ET 1 ET1 ET SecretarySecretary

Center staffed 24x7 with 2 staff.Center staffed 24x7 with 2 staff.

Tsunami Warning Center Core Tsunami Warning Center Core

FunctionsFunctions

Acquire raw data:Acquire raw data: Seismic data Seismic data Sea level dataSea level data

Process and analyze data:Process and analyze data: Initial processing on seismic dataInitial processing on seismic data Decision’s based on processed data and protocolsDecision’s based on processed data and protocols Post-processing seismic dataPost-processing seismic data Display sea level dataDisplay sea level data Analyze sea level data in conjunction with pre-event Analyze sea level data in conjunction with pre-event

modeling and historical informationmodeling and historical information Disseminate InformationDisseminate Information

Networks and Example ScenarioNetworks and Example Scenario

Product Delivery MethodsProduct Delivery Methods

Tsunami Strengthening Program:Tsunami Strengthening Program:TWC EnhancementsTWC Enhancements

Enhanced DART network (NDBC)Enhanced DART network (NDBC) Enhanced tide gage network (NOS)Enhanced tide gage network (NOS) Upgrade PTWC seismic networkUpgrade PTWC seismic network Modernized forecast software (PMEL)Modernized forecast software (PMEL) TsunamiReady support (NWS)TsunamiReady support (NWS) Global seismic network upgrade (USGS)Global seismic network upgrade (USGS) Tsunami Archives (NGDC)Tsunami Archives (NGDC) 24x7 warning centers (TWCs)24x7 warning centers (TWCs)

Warning System ChallengesWarning System Challenges

Need direct wave observations PRIOR to Need direct wave observations PRIOR to impact on nearest coastimpact on nearest coast

Hazard definition in areas with little historic Hazard definition in areas with little historic datadata

Warning dissemination to those at riskWarning dissemination to those at risk Infrequency of events and associated Infrequency of events and associated

complacencycomplacency Poorly tsunami-educated publicPoorly tsunami-educated public