ocb cisco 20july09 - woods hole oceanographic institution
TRANSCRIPT
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Eco
syst
em s
tate
Cisco Werner Brad deYoung
(and many others: M. Barange, G. Beaugrand, R. Harris, C. Moloney, I. Perry and M. Scheffer)
Regime Shifts in the Ocean: From Detection to Prediction?
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DEFINITION OF REGIME SHIFT
Working definition: a regime shift is a relatively abrupt change between contrasting persistent states in an ecosystem
Claussen, et al (1999) Geophysical Research Letters26, 2037-2040.
Scheffer, et al. (2001). Nature 413: 591-596
Birth of the Sahara desert
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“Simple” example
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Jamaican coral reef systems
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Sequence of events
Removal of fish &Eutrophication
Sea urchins #’s increase
Hurricane in ‘81 (urchins recolonized)
Pathogen
Fleshy brown algae took over
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“Complicated”explanation
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Loss of resilience
Overfishing
Nutrient loading
Parasite infection
Sea urchin collapse
Rock
Healthy state
Stressed state
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Erosion of resilience
Environmental driver
Env
ironm
enta
l sta
teErosion of resilience
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Scheffer et al. 2001. Nature 413:591-596.
• Loss of resilience
• Irreversibility
• Triggered shifts
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Can we anticipate how biological and ecological systems will respond?
Scheffer, Carpenter, Walker, Foley and Folke 2001. NATURE
(a) and (b): one equilibrium state (c): three equilibrium states; two stable, one unstable
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For a system on the upper branch, close to the F2bifurcation point, a slight incremental change may bring it beyond the bifurcation and induce a catastrophic shift to the lower alternative stable state.
A perturbation, if sufficiently large, may also induce a shift the lower alternative stable state.
Scheffer, Carpenter, Walker, Foley and Folke 2001. NATURE
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How can we demonstrate that there are alternative attractors in real ecosystems?
Scheffer, et al. (2003) TREE.
Shifts in time series
Multimodal distributions
Dual relationships
(Response to control factor best described by 2 separate fxns)
(Spatial analogue to jumps in time series)
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Review of a few other oceanic examples
• Scotian Shelf – driven primarily by fishing, cascading trophic impacts
• North Sea – combined drivers: natural=biogeographic shift and human=fishing
• North Pacific – complex natural state change(s)
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Scotian Shelf – Frank et al. 2005
-30% +30%
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Wei
ght,
kg
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Colour display of 60+ indices
for Eastern Scotian Shelf
Red –below average
Green –above average
Grey seals - adults Pelagic fish - #’s
Pelagic:demersal #’s Pelagic:demersal wt.
Inverts - $$Pelagics - wt
DiatomsGrey seals – pups
Pelagics - $$ Greenness
Dinoflagellates Fish diversity – richness
3D Seisimic (km2) Gulf Stream position
Stratification anomaly Diatom:dinoflagellate
Sea level anomaly Volume of CIL source water
Inverts – landings Bottom water < 3 C Sable winds (Tau)
SST anomaly (satellites) chlorophyll – CPR
Temperature of mixed layer NAO
Bottom T – Emerald basin Copepods – Para/Pseudocal
Shelf-slope front position Storms
Bottom T – Misaine bank Groundfish landings
Haddock – length at age 6 Bottom area trawled (>150 GRT)
Cod – length at age 6 Average weight of fish
Community similarity index PCB’s in seal blubber
Relative F Pollock – length at age 6
Calanus finmarchicus Groundfish biomass – RV
Pelagics – landings Silver hake – length at age
Condition – KF Depth of mixed layer
Condition – JC Proportion of area – condition
RIVSUM Sigma-t in mixed layer
Oxygen Wind stress (total)
Wind stress (x-direction) Wind stress amplitude
SST at Halifax Groundfish - $$
Salinity in mixed layer Ice coverage
Wind stress (Tau) Number of oil&gas wells drilled
Nitrate Groundfish fish - #’s
Shannon diversity index –fish Seismic 2D (km)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Grey seals, pelagic fish abundance, invertebrate landings, fish species richness, phytoplankton
Bottom temp., exploitation, groundfish biomass & landings, growth-CHP, avg. fish weight, copepods
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Top Predators
(Piscivores)
Forage (fish+inverts)(Plankti-,Detriti-vores)
Zooplankton
(Herbivores)
Phytoplankton
(Nutrivores)
+
-
+
-
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North Sea: Long-term changes in the ecology (hydro-climate + biology)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
1999
Years
c. Principal component 1 (30.08%)Regime shift
‘cold’ episodic event
‘warm’ episodic event(G. Beaugrand)
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Shifts in copepod distributions in the North Atlantic:Warm-water species have extended their distribution northward by more than 10° of latitude, while cold-water species have decreased in number and extension.
(Beaugrand et al., Science, 2002)
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-0. 40
0. 40. 8
- 2- 101
23- 3- 2- 1012
- 2- 1012
Secodpcpa component (31.36
SS (central North Sea)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 909 49Yea rs ( 195 8-19 99)Naoaes
eaubeo species per assemblage
-0.4
0
0.4
0.8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3-3-2-10123
-2
-1
0
1
2
Seco
nd p
rinci
pal
com
pone
nt (3
1.36
%)
SST
(cen
tral N
orth
Sea
)
58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98Years (1958-1999)
NH
T an
omal
ies
Mea
n um
ber o
f sp
ecie
s per
ass
embl
age
Gadoid species (cod)
SST
NHT anomalies
plankton change
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
C. finmarchicus
C. helgolandicus
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Long-term changes in the abundance of two key species in the North SeaPe
rcen
tage
of
C. h
elgo
land
icus
Reid et al. (2003)
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Consequences of plankton changes on higher trophic level
Mismatch between the timing of calanus prey and larval cod
Abundance of C. finmarchicus
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95123456789101112
0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6 A
bundance (in log(x+1))
10
Gadoid Outburst
Abundance of C. helgolandicus
123456789101112
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0 A
bundance (in log(x+1))
10
Gadoid Outburst
Beaugrand, et al. (2003) Nature. Vol. 426. 661-664.
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0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
Propn. of eggs from age 5+ codFishing mortality rate (age 3+)
But there is also an influence from fishing – how much?
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Meteorological/oceanographicforcing
Ocean circulation
Biogeographic shift
Ocean conditions
Ecosystem status and function
Fishing
North Sea - dynamics
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North Pacific regime shift – Hare and Mantua (2000)
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Physical forcing – air temperature -but there are dozens of other such time series
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Winter PDO
Euphausiid
Pink salmon (solid) lagged one year
Chinook (dashed) lagged 3 years
deYoung et al. (2007)
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deYoung et al. (2007)
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How predictable are regime shifts?
• Coral reefs (the “simplest” case) – We understand the causal links – We can’t predict disease outbreaks
• Fishing-dominated systems – Although fishing can be the dominant driver, its consequences
are not predictable without understanding the foodweb dynamics– Shifts may not be easily reversible
• North Pacific– We have not been able to separate drivers or where different
states are occurring– Accurate prediction not currently possible
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Example North Pacific modelYamanaka, Rose, Werner et al. Ecological Modelling, 2007.
Can we model regime shifts?
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NEMURO.FISH
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Observations- Biologicaland Physical
NCEP 6 hourly data1948-2002
(includes interannual variability)
COCO COCO –– TokyoTokyo33--D NemuroD Nemuro
Zooplankton andZooplankton andtemperature temperature time seriestime series
Nemuro Pacific herring model
uMN
L-1
0.084
0.088
0.092
g ye
ar-1
0
40
80
o C
9.510.010.511.011.5
0.0480.0520.0560.060
Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.14
0.16
0.18
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Validation
Time series output
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Modeled the basin-scale response in physics and lower trophic levels…
… and forced the upper trophic levels…
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Obtained “shifts” in weights of individual fish at various locations in the North Pacific…
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Summary• Clear evidence for regime shifts
in the ocean
• More regime shifts are likely –decreased resilience
• Limited data, systemic complexity, range of different structures
• Need sustained monitoring, experimental work, models, etc.
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Resolving the impact of climatic processes on ecosystems of the North Atlantic basin and shelf seas.
BASIN is an initiative to develop a joint EU/North American ocean ecosystem research program.
BASIN: Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and Integration.
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Expected Result: Major impact for marine exploited resources and biogeo-chemical processes (e.g. sequestration of CO2 by the ocean).
Biological consequences expected under climatic warmingOr changes in water mass structure.
• Changes in the range and spatial distribution of species.
• Shifts in the location of biogeographical boundaries, provinces,
and biomes.
• Change in the phenology of species (e.g. earlier reproductive season).
• Modification in dominance (e.g. a key species can be replaced by
another one).
• Change in diversity.
• Change in other key functional attributes for marine ecosystems.
• Change in structure and dynamics of ecosystem with possible
regime shifts.
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Research Goals
• Integrate and synthesize existing basin-wide data sets from previous programs in Europe and North America,
• Improve the current state of the art in bio-physical modelling,
• Develop hindcast modelling studies to understand the observed historical variability of the North Atlantic ecosystem,
• Construct scenarios of possible ecosystem changes in response tofuture climate variability,
• Identify data gaps that limit process understanding and contribute to uncertainty in model results,
• Specify new data needed to assess the performance of forecasts,
• Provide relevant information to resource managers and decision makers.
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What did we learnabout marine food webs during the GLOBEC era?
What did we learnabout marine food webs during the GLOBEC era?
Coleen Moloney
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1. marine food webs are special
We learnt that...
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MEDUSAE
PLEUROBRACHIA TOMOPTERIS SAGITT
ALIMACIN
A
AMMODYTES JUV
OIKOPLEURA
LARVAL MOLLUSCA
PRORO-CENTRUM
PERIDINIUM
CERATIUM
MEROSIRA
PARALIA
THALASSI-OSIRA
COSCINO-DISCUS
GUINARDIA
PHAEOCYSTIS
BIDDULPHIA NITZSCHIA
NAVICULACHAETO-CERAS
RHIZO--SOLENIA
CUMACEAE MYSIDAE DECAPOD LARVAE
CYPRIS BALANUS LARVAE
HARPAC-TICID
PARA-CALANUS
PSEUDO-CALANUS
ACARTIA
TEMORACENTRO-PAGES
CALANUS
NYCTI-PHANES
HYPERIID AMPHIPODS
APHERUSA
PODON
EVADNE
TINTINNOPSIS
NOCTILUCARADIOLARIA
FORAM-INIFERA
ADULT HERRINGHERRINGYOUNG7-12 mm 12-42 mm 42-130 mm
predation by fish
predation by other groupsHardy (1924), adapted from Elton (1927)
Food web supporting herring in the North Sea
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MEDUSAE
PLEUROBRACHIA TOMOPTERIS SAGITT
ALIMACIN
A
AMMODYTES JUV
OIKOPLEURA
LARVAL MOLLUSCA
PRORO-CENTRUM
PERIDINIUM
CERATIUM
MEROSIRA
PARALIA
THALASSI-OSIRA
COSCINO-DISCUS
GUINARDIA
PHAEOCYSTIS
BIDDULPHIA NITZSCHIA
NAVICULACHAETO-CERAS
RHIZO--SOLENIA
CUMACEAE MYSIDAE DECAPOD LARVAE
CYPRIS BALANUS LARVAE
HARPAC-TICID
PARA-CALANUS
PSEUDO-CALANUS
ACARTIA
TEMORACENTRO-PAGES
CALANUS
NYCTI-PHANES
HYPERIID AMPHIPODS
APHERUSA
PODON
EVADNE
TINTINNOPSIS
NOCTILUCARADIOLARIA
FORAM-INIFERA
ADULT HERRINGHERRINGYOUNG7-12 mm 12-42 mm 42-130 mm
predation by fish
predation by other groupsHardy (1924), adapted from Elton (1927)
Food web supporting herring in the North Sea
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1. marine food webs are special
2. population-level processes are important in food web dynamics (target-species approach)
We learnt that...
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C1-4 C5 C1-4 C5
C5 & femalenauplius nauplius
mating spawning recruitment to copepodite stage
Neocalanus plumchrus
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
0
500
1000
C1-4 C5 C1-4 C5female female0
500
1000
Neocalanus flemingeri
(small form)
Neocalanus flemingeri
(large form)
female C1-3C4
C4 C5 female0
500
1000
Dep
th (m
)
modified from Tsuda et al. (1999) Mar. Biol. 135: 533
Population-level processes: adaptability
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Species show remarkable flexibility in patterns of growth and reproduction
oceanexplorer.noaa.gov
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1. marine food webs are special
2. population-level processes are important in food web dynamics (target-species approach)
3. long time series allow(ed) patterns to be identified (and processes inferred)
We learnt that...
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Alaska gyre (biomass)Alaska gyre (stage ratio)VI cont. margin (stage)
Cumulative warmth-100 0 100 200 300 400
25-Mar4-Apr
14-Apr24-Apr4-May
14-May24-May
3-Jun13-Jun23-Jun
3-Jul13-Jul23-Jul2-Aug
Dates at which Neocalanus plumchrus reaches its annual biomass maximum
Alaska gyreVI cont. margin
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
25-Mar4-Apr
14-Apr24-Apr4-May
14-May24-May
3-Jun13-Jun23-Jun
3-Jul13-Jul23-Jul2-Aug
warm water = early biomass peak
Mackas et al. (1998) Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 55: 1878; Mackas et al. (2007) Prog. Oceanogr. 75: 223
Changes in seasonal timing: pattern to process
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Changes in timing have unknown effects through the food web
oceanexplorer.noaa.gov
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1. marine food webs are special
2. population-level processes are important in food web dynamics (target-species approach)
3. long time series allow(ed) patterns to be identified (and processes inferred)
4. food web structure varies on different scales
We learnt that...
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myctophids
phytoplankton
krill
seals penguins
icefish
other predators
amphipods
copepods
krill abundantseals
phytoplankton
krill
penguins
icefish
other predators
myctophids
amphipods
copepods
krill scarceScotia Sea
Murphy et al. (2007) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 362: 113
Changes in structure: alternative food web pathways
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1
23
4
5
Regions for which ecosystem regime shifts have been documented
Jarre and Shannon (in press) GLOBEC synthesis
Changes in structure: regime shifts
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1. marine food webs are special
2. population-level processes are important in food web dynamics (target-species approach)
3. long time series allow(ed) patterns to be identified (and processes inferred)
4. food webs can change from one state to another
5. food web dynamics vary among regions
We learnt that...
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Bio
mas
s/ A
bund
ance
of t
roph
ic le
vel
IPrimary producer(phytoplankton)
IIHerbivore(copepod)
IIILevel 1 Predator
(small fish)
IVTop Predator
(large fish)
Trophic level(taxa) 'Bottom-up'
Mackas (in press, GLOBEC synthesis), based on Cury et al. (2001) and McQueen et al. (1986)
Time after perturbation
Food web dynamics: trophic controls
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Continental margin areas, NE Pacific
Ware and Thompson (2005) Science 308: 1280-1284
0 2 4 60
1
2r2 = 0.87p < 0.0001n = 11
Mea
n re
side
nt fi
sh y
ield
(m
etric
tons
.km
-2)
Mean chl a concentration (mg.m-3) Mean chl a concentration (mg.m-3)
Mea
n zo
opla
nkto
n bi
omas
s (m
g [d
ry w
t].m
-3)
0 2 4 6 8
120
80
40
0
Bottom-up trophic control
Mean zoop. biomass (mg [dry wt].m-3)
Mea
n re
side
nt fi
sh y
ield
(m
etric
tons
.km
-2)
r2 = 0.79p = 0.01n = 62
4
00 40 80 120
Large scale
Small scale
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Bio
mas
s/ A
bund
ance
of t
roph
ic le
vel
IPrimary producer(phytoplankton)
IIHerbivore(copepod)
IIILevel 1 Predator
(small fish)
IVTop Predator
(large fish)
Trophic level(taxa) 'Bottom-up' 'Top-down'
trophic cascades
Mackas (in press, GLOBEC synthesis), based on Cury et al. (2001) and McQueen et al. (1986)
Time after perturbation
Food web dynamics: trophic controls
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Top-down control – trophic cascades
SE US coast
Myers et al. (2008) Science 315: 1846-1850
Rel
ativ
e ab
unda
nce 0.0
0.4
0.8
1970 1980 1990 2000
Sharks
0.0
0.4
0.8
1970 1980 1990 2000
Skates
0.0
0.4
0.8
1970 1980 1990 2000
Scallops
Black Sea
Bio
mas
s
Daskalov et al. (2007)PNAS 104: 10518-10523
1950 1970 1990
4
2
0
-2
Pelagic predatory fish
1950 1970 1990
4
2
0
-2
Small planktivorous fish
1950 1970 1990
4
2
0
-2
Zooplankton
1950 1970 1990
4
2
0
-2
Phytoplankton
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Time after perturbation
Bio
mas
s/ A
bund
ance
of t
roph
ic le
vel
IPrimary producer(phytoplankton)
IIHerbivore(copepod)
IIILevel 1 Predator
(small fish)
IVTop Predator
(large fish)
Trophic level(taxa) 'Bottom-up' 'Top-down'
'Wasp-waist'
top-down control
Mackas (in press, GLOBEC synthesis), based on Cury et al. (2001) and McQueen et al. (1986)
Food web dynamics: trophic controls
bottom-up control
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Trophic controls are situation-dependent
•they vary in space...
•and they vary in time...
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Frank (pers. comm.), Frank et al. (2006). Ecol. Letters 9: 1096-1105.
Latitutudinal gradient in trophic controlsAnalysis of 47 systems
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Hunt et al. (2002). Deep-Sea Res. II 49: 5821-5853
Cold regime
Beginning of warm regime
Warm regime
Beginning of cold regime
(Bottom-up regulation)
(Bottom-up regulation)
(Top-down regulation)
(Both top-down and bottom-up)
Zooplankton Larval survival
Abundance of piscivorous fish
Juvenile recruits
Oscillating control – Bering Sea
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1. marine food webs are special
2. population-level processes are important in food web dynamics (target-species approach)
3. long time series allow(ed) patterns to be identified (and processes inferred)
4. food webs can change from one state to another
5. food web dynamics vary among regions
6. food webs should be understood from end to end
We learnt that...
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Planktivore fishJuvenile fishLarval fish
Toppredators
Piscivore fish
Zooplankton
Microbial loop
Phytoplankton
carbon sequestration
marine biogeochemistry
fisheries production
maintenanceof biodiversity
marine living resource management
marine conservation
Why study marine food webs end to end?
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1. marine food webs are special
2. population-level processes are important in food web dynamics (target-species approach)
3. long time series allow(ed) patterns to be identified (and processes inferred)
4. food webs can change from one state to another
5. food web dynamics vary among regions
6. food webs should be understood from end to end
7. innovation is needed to deal with the complexity of marine food webs
We learnt that...
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end-to-end
food web
4Energy &
Metabolism
Feed
ing
Beha
viou
r5
3Stoichiometry
Biodiversity
& Adaptability
8
Distributions
& Movements
6
1Bi
ogeo
chem
istry genes &
genomes
species
compo-
sition
size
spectra
links &
exchanges
mass balance
tota
l bi
omas
s
nutri
ent
conc
en-
tratio
ns
food quality
indi
vidua
l di
ets
genera-
lised
patterns
ability to
adapt
efficiency
of
transfer
2
Micro-organisms
element
cycles
troph
ic co
ntro
lsLife Histories7
population dynamics
key species
Research framework for end-to-end food webs
ecosystem-level
population-level
Moloney, St John et al. (submitted)
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North Pacific Coral - Jamaica North SeaDrivers Response Drivers Response Drivers Response
Complex physical climate (AO, PDO, ENSO)
Zooplankton to fish and mammals
Fishing Eutrophication
Species composition(urchins-algae-coral)
Oceanic (circulation temperature) atmospheric (NAO), fishing
Phytoplankton to fish
Time scale
Shift – 1-5 yearsPersistence –10-20 years
Shift: 1-5 yearsRegime: > 10 years
Parasite (Trigger) – 1-2 yearsErosion of resilience (10 year)
Shift – 1-2 yearsPersistence –> 20 years
Shift 1-5 years (NAO) Oceanic persistence –10 years Erosion of resilience – > 10 years -fishing
Shift – 1-5 yearsRegime: > 10 years
Spatial scale
10,000 km (basin)
1,000 -2,000 km (regional)
10-100 km 10-100 km 1000 km (fishing, oceanic) to 10,000 km (atmospheric)
1000-2000 km (extends beyond North Sea)
Detect 2 years 3-5 years < 1 year 1-2 years 2 years 2-5 years
Predict Little skill Following from detection
Erosion fishing impact is predictable Trigger – no
Probabilistic Little skill, Erosion -fishing impact is predictable
Following from detection
Manage Not possible Fishing managementafter detection - adaptation
Marine management of resilience and trigger >> prevention
Marine management -rehabilitation ( ?)
Climate – not possibleFishing -prevention
Fishing managementafter detection -adaptation