trend and geographical distribution of landslides in nepal based on

New Technologies for Urban Safety of Mega Cities in Asia

Trend and geographical distribution of landslides in Nepal based on Nepal DesInventar data

Chaudhary Suresh CHAUDHARY1, Ganesh Kumar JIMEE2 and Gopi Krishna BASYAL3

1 Geographer, National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET)

2 Director, National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET) 3 Geographer, National Society for Earthquake Technology -Nepal (NSET)

[email protected]

ABSTRACT

Nepal is known as one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Fragile geological

condition, diverse topographical feature, high precipitation and deeply weathered rock

material as well as socio-economic conditions have made the country vulnerable to various

types of natural disasters. Floods, landslides, earthquakes, epidemics, fires, thunderstorm and

windstorm are quite common and frequent in the country. Every year it is suffering from

number of large to small-scale natural disasters, causing a significant loss of life and

property throughout the country.

This study is mainly based on DesInventar database, being maintained by NSET. Nepal

DesInventar database shows that more than 3,220 landslide events have been reported in

different printed media during the last 42 years. While looking these analysis and data for this

period, one can specify the following losses: Besides the high number of human deaths 4,691,

about 18,902 houses were destroyed and nearly 34,126 damaged. Moreover, almost 225,76

ha. of arable land and more than 10,798 livestock were lost. Concerning public property,

more than 130 educational facilities, 8 medical centers and 334 km roads were damaged. The

total loss by disasters during this period is about 12 billion NRs at present value. In early

years, reports on disasters were not frequent. There is a gradual increase in the number of

reports in recent years. Mountain and hill regions are more prone to landslides. However,

landslides are also affecting Churia and Mahabharat range of the Terai region..

Keywords: landslide, historical data, trend, geographical distribution

1. HAZARD PROFILE OF NEPAL

Nepal lies in the most active and fragile mountain range. Mountain is still rising and its rocks

are under constant stress, Thus pressure forces the Himalayas to rise continuously, which is

released from time to time in the form of earthquakes. Active nature of the range and the

process is also manifested by frequent earthquakes in this region. This stress is responsible for

the complexities in folding, faulting and fracturing of subsurface rock strata making the entire

country very fragile and susceptible to other natural hazards such as landslide and erosion

(UNDP/BCP 2004). Intense monsoon rainfalls also trigger slope failure, landslide, debris flow,

and other secondary hazards.

Hence that a combination of rough topography, steep slopes, active tectonic and seismic

process and intense impact of monsoon rain has made this fragile environment vulnerable to a

variety of natural hazards. Nepal is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world and

has experienced several natural catastrophes causing high economic and human losses. Heavy

October 2015, Kathmandu Nepal


rain and storms cause severe flooding, or trigger landslides that have an enormous effect on

property, structures and lives.

The geological reasoning of Nepal being susceptible to a variety of natural hazards is

confirmed by the real occurrence of disastrous events. Most frequent hazards are landslides,

floods, epidemics, fires, earthquake and other hydro-meteorological disasters (heavy rain,

thunderstorm, hailstorm, windstorm etc.), causing heavy loss of human lives as well as

economic loss including housing and infrastructures. For example, the 1934 Bihar-Nepal

Earthquake (M8.3), the 1988 Udaypur Earthquake (M6.6) and the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake

(M7.6) were the most devastating earthquakes in Nepal during last 80 years. Jure landslide of

2014 and the 1993 floods in south-central Nepal resulted in huge loss of lives and properties

including housing and other infrastructures (roads, hydropower, and electricity). The

economic cost associated with natural disasters has increased tremendously.

The Terai experiences sheet flooding that becomes serious when the flow along braided rivers

overflows the banks because of heavy deposition of sand and gravel in the river bed. Fire,

drought and epidemics are also prevalent in this geographic region. The Hill region, including

the Siwaliks (or the Churia Range) experiences landslide, debris flow along creeks along

steep slopes, floods in the lower stages of river terraces and erosion along the river banks

during monsoon period. The higher Mountain region is exposed to rock and snow avalanches,

rock slides, and debris flows. There are numerous lakes of glacial origin in the higher

Himalayan regions of Nepal. These lakes are rapidly expanding in area and volume due to

melting of the glacier tongue, believed to be due to rise in global temperature. “20 lakes in

Nepal are potentially dangerous. The lives of tens of thousands of people who live high in the

mountains and in downstream communities could be at severe risk”(ICIMOD, 2007; Mool,

2001). The following table provides an overview of the hazard exposure of Nepal.

Table 1 : Types of Natural and Man-induced Hazards in Nepal

Types of Hazard Prevalence

Natural Hazards

Earthquake All of Nepal is a high-hazard earthquake zone

Flood Terai (sheet flood), Middle Hills

Landslide and landslide dam breaks Hills, Mountains

Debris Flow Hills and Mountain, severe in areas of elevations greater than 1700 m that are covered

by glacial deposits of previous ice-age

Glacier Lakes Outburst Floods (GLOF) Origin at the tongue of glaciers in Higher Himalayas, Higher Mountains, flow reach up

to middle Hill regions

Avalanche Higher Himalayas

Fire (forest ) Hills and Terai (forest belt at foot of southern-most Hills

Drought All over the country

Storms/ Hailstorm Hills

Man-Induced Hazards

Epidemics Terai and Hills, also in lower parts of Mountain region

Fire (settlements) Mostly in Terai, also in mid-Hill region

Accidents Urban areas, along road network

Industrial/Technological Hazards Urban / industrial areas

Soil erosion Hill region

Social Disruptions Follows disaster-affected areas and politically disturbed areas

Source: NSET 2009 (adopted from Dixit, 1996)

The seismic record of the country suggests that a major earthquake of the 1934-magnitude (up

to MMI Scale X) occurs approximately every 75 years (UNDP/BCP 2004). Even though this



is only a statistical estimate, no one questions that major earthquakes are an unavoidable part

of Nepal’s future.

A large part of the country is affected by severe meteorological events (floods and landslides)

during rainy season (particularly in monsoon season during late June to September). Also,

there are events of cloudburst in the part of the hills causing debris flow and landslides.

Precipitation records show that 80 percent of rainfall occurs during monsoon; whereas rest of

rainfall occurs during pre-monsoon (5 percent during April – May) and post-monsoon (15

percent during October to March). Precipitation varies from place to place and ranges from

250 mm to over 5,200 mm per annum (Pokhrel, 2003).

As global environmental changes have affected the world throughout the age of time; which

generate a complex of risks and vulnerabilities for areas and societies especially for those not

well prepared to face them. The impact of global change is more readily visible in the form of

melting of glacier ice and increasing potential of glacier lakes outburst floods (GLOFs) that

have been recorded as causing great loss of life and damage to physical infrastructures and

property. In Nepal, glacier lakes are common in mountainous region and out of them many

are potentially dangers in terms of GLOFs. These lakes containing huge volume of water and

remain in unstable condition (ICIMOD, 2007).

Epidemics and fire cases are other most significant disaster types in Nepal; they are frequent

during the months of hot and rainy seasons. The poor access to health facilities are the most

important thing to epidemics particularly in remote areas of the country as well as among the

people living in poverty. Fires are frequent in thatch-roofed houses in the Terai and also in

slum areas. In recent times, cases of fire are increasingly happening in small industries using

or producing synthetic materials.

Thus Nepal faces a variety of natural hazards of geologic and climatologic origins. The entire

country is exposed to one or multiple forms of natural hazards. Compared to the area of the

country and the population, the extent and intensity of natural hazards are way too high if

looked at from global perspective. Further, most of the hazard events easily get translated into

disasters because of prevalent vulnerability.

2. METHODOLOGY

Although living in the "information age" and in a culture that is very data incentive, the

organized and uniform data pertaining to natural disaster losses is quite less. No exact

statistics are available on the loss of lives and property caused by historical disaster events.

Few available records are only on the events with big impacts but thousands of small and

medium size events are missing from the records, which sum to significant loss of lives and

property.

In this context, the effort was carried out by the National Society for Earthquake Technology

– Nepal (NSET) to establish a systematic data inventory of natural disaster events in Nepal.

The effort has been focused on collection and computer-entry of natural disaster data. So far

NSET has maintained the data for 42 years (1971-2013) and has been continued for

subsequent years. The information is collected from different printed media and entered into

the DesInventar System, a methodological tool developed by Latin American Network of

Social Studies on Disaster Prevention (LARED).

Daily newspapers and periodicals have been considered as major sources of information.

Beside these, relevant reports, journals and researches are also taken into account. The data

thus collected is verified for consistency and accuracy, largely by going to the source when in

doubt. After the verification, trained personnel entered the data into the DesInventar System.

The inventoried landslides data have been analyzed from different angles to draw an overview

of landslides. Furthermore, distribution and other analysis also made based on geographical



and political regions while finding spatial distribution as well as making analysis on

seasonality, trend, pattern, and the extent of human and property losses. The findings are

presented in the form of tables, graphs, and maps.

This study draw a brief overveiw of the landslides in Nepal and how each impact variable has

distributed spatialy, seasonally and chronologically. All these findings are based on the

information collected through secondary source of information and findings are depends on

how accurately the information was reported in the printed media.

3. LANDSLIDES – OVERALL SCENARIO

Landslide is a kind of moderate to rapid soil movement including lahar, mudslide and debris

flow (CRED 2009). It is the movement of soil or rock controlled by gravity and the speed of

the movement usually ranges between slow and rapid. It can be superficial or deep, but the

materials have to make up a mass that is portion of the slope or the slope itself. The

movement has to be downward and outward with a free face. But this study has focused only

on the ground movement, such as rock falls, deep failure of slopes and shallow debris flows.

Although gravity is the primary reason for a landslides, there are other contributing factors

affecting the original slope stability: The natural causes are: erosion by rivers, glacier melting,

saturation by snowmelt or heavy rains, seismic activity, volcanic eruptions, excess weight

from accumulation of rain or snow, and groundwater pressure acting to destabilize the slope.

Human impacts such as vibrations from machinery, traffic and road construction, explosions

or mining as well as the removal of deep-rooted vegetation that binds the soil to bedrock or

overgrazing can also trigger landslides.

For the period of 1971 to 2013 the number of landslide events is summed to a total of 3,220 –

a yearly average of 76 disaster events. The overall death toll is about 4,691 people which

mean that on average every year in Nepal causes 111 fatalities. A striking number is seen on

affected population, totaling of more than 600,736 (average of about 14,303 people per year).

Besides the high number of human losses (fatalities, missing, injured, affected : 607, 806),

about 18,902 houses were destroyed and nearly 34,126 houses damaged. Moreover almost

22,576 ha land and more than 10,798 livestock were lost. Concerning public property, more

than 130 educational facilities, 8 medical centers and 334 km roads were damaged. The total

loss by disasters during this period is about 12 billion NRs at present value. However,

landslide impacts on human and property is differ as year and geographic location.

4. SEASONAL VARIATION OF LANDSLIDES

As stated above, the factors contributing to high vulnerability of landslides are of geographic,

geological, ecological and demographic nature. This factor mainly open the fragility of the

land masses, high elevation and steep gradient of the mountain slopes. Specific weather

events related to the geography of the country, high degree of environmental degradation and

the rapid growth of population as well slow economic development are also forces to the

vulnerability of landslides.

Regarding the geography of Nepal, the Hill region seems to be the most affected area by

landslides. As the peak of landslide events is in July during monsoon season, we can say

heavy rain, floods and landslides are interrelated. Some landslides are triggered by riverbank

erosion, undercutting of slopes by fast flowing rivers or human impact on slopes such as the

construction of roads. On the other hand landslides can block riverbanks and consequently

aggravate the risk of (flash) floods.



Figure 1: Seasonality of Landslides, 1971-2013

(Data source: Nepal DesInventar Database, NSET 2015)

Figure 1shows that death from landslide was recorded high in the rainy season from June to

October.

5. TREND OF LANDSLIDES

Besides the above stated natural causes of landslides, in Nepal the major anthropogenic

factors for landslides are: intensive deforestation, improper agriculture and irrigation practices,

overgrazing on slopes, quarrying for construction materials, and construction of infrastructure

beyond the bearing capacities of the hill slopes(Petley et.al 2007). Moreover the haphazard

urbanisation with so called modern development without proper studies in hills has forced

people to move at risk of landslide, which has been increasing everey year.

The analysis of effects of landslide during the 42 years period shows that each year, on

average 111 people are killed and 14,303 affected with high number of buildings destroyed

and damaged (about 1262 each year). Makwanpur, Sindhupalchok, Dhading and Kaski

districts are highly affected.

Figure 2: Trendline of landslides, 1971-2013

(Data source: Nepal DesInventar Database, NSET 2015)

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Jure Landslide

On August 2, 2014, due to heavy rainfall, a landslide

was occurred at the Sunkoshi River, killing 156 people

and blocking the river to form and artificial lake in

Sindhupalchok district, Nepal. Araniko highway, the

main (and only) artery of goods and people flow to

China, was blocked by the landslide ripping out of 5 km

of highway, and causing huge traffic jam, 2 dozens

houses had been swept by the landslide. The landslide

had a volume of 5.5 million cubic meters.

The landslide had a massive effects far beyond. The

dammed river was threatening to unleash a torrent of

water to hundreds of downstream villages that would

ravage as far as Northern India. Despite the use of

dynamite, it took the Nepal Army 45 days to dig a canal

through the blockage to allow water in the lake to drain.

The Lake created was 47 meters deep and over 400

meters long. The hasty emergency draining through the

lake canal itself had caused damage to houses

downstream and threatens to take out Lamosanghu

Hydropower dam.

The analysis of landslides trendline shows that in the beginning of 1990s, it can be observe a

high number of landslide events. Moreover, the number of fatalities increased as well.

However, in recent years, the number of events and fatalities went down again. An

explanation for this curve cannot be found solely from the DesInventar database. However

one could question whether this trend is interlinked with the construction of roads and

increase of population.

6. ANALYSIS BY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

Nepal comprises high altitudinal variation from about 60 to over 8,000 meter above sea level

within 90-120 km distance.

Because of the east-west

orientation of the

mountains the climate

changes from tropical to

alpine according to

elevation and latitude –

temperature decreases

from south to north with

increasing altitude.

Ecologically, Nepal is

typically divided in three

regions with regard to

elevations and climate

from North to South; The

Mountain, Hill and Terai

Region.

6.1 The Mountain Region

The northern part of Nepal – typically

higher than 5,000 meter above mean sea

level includes northern 16 districts of

Nepal. This region covers approximately

15% of the country’s land surface,

contains nine of the fifteen highest peaks

of the world. In the region, the winters are

rather strong – long and severe – with only

short and cool summers. Due to this fact,

the most severe disasters besides

epidemics – which cause almost ¾ of all

fatalities – are landslides. During the time

(1971-2013), no glacier lake outburst flood

(GLOF) happened; however due to the

topography of this area the region is prone

to Landslides and GLOFs as well.

6.2 The Hill Region

The Hill Region contains some of the most

populated districts of Nepal, naming especially the Kathmandu and Pokhara Valley. The



Landslides triggered by rainfall

In July 2002, many landslides occurred in the southern hills of the Kathmandu, because of torrential

rainfall. A single flow-like landslide occurred at Matatirtha, a small village situated at the south marginal

hill of Kathmandu, killing 16 people who lived at the foot of the hill. Much damage was caused to roads and

houses because of landslides and debris flows in small streams. Although some more flow-like landslides

occurred in southern marginal hills, the Matatirtha was most devastating one. Some of flow-like landslides

also damaged road of hills but casualty was not reported

topography contains hills, valleys, plateaus and gorges between approximately 1,500m and

5,000m above mean sea level – about 70% of the total land in Nepal. In this area, different

influences cumulate: Because of the steep gradients of the mountains, this area is exposed to

avalanches in the winter, but also prone to landslides and mud flows during monsoon, when

the slopes are soaked and weakened from the rain. Therefore, settlements in the valleys and

on mountain terraces are in danger of landslides. Furthermore, as mentioned before, the

monsoon has multiple effects in this region: Many rivers overflow their bed and cause severe

flooding and the cloud bursts cause harsh erosion that affects agriculture.

6.3 The Terai Region

Altitudes between 60m and 1,500 m above mean sea

level are encountered to build the Terai region. The

lowlands – 17% of the Nepalese land area – include

very fertile plains formed by the chain of historical

floods. However churia and mahabharat range from

the east to the west can be found on this region.

Similarly to the afore-analyzed regions the Terai also

face the severity of landslides. Landslide of

Mukundapur, Nawalparasi (2003), Rukuwa,

Nawalparasi (1981), Kabilaspur, Chitwan (2003 &

2006) are an example of huge landslides occurred in

Terai region, that are highly interlinked with the

rainy season.

As Nepal is affected by the south-west monsoon, the

Terai Region will have the first hit. Therefore all

consequences of heavy rain, storm and

thundershowers (flooding, erosion, lightning etc.)

can be observed in this area. As the Terai is heavily

used in terms of agriculture, small slides as well

topples mainly due to rive bank erosion, have a

severe effect not only causing high numbers of

fatalities but also resulting high financial and

agricultural (irrigation canal) losses.

7. ANALYSIS BY DEVELOPMENT REGIONS

7.1 Eastern Development Region (EDR)

In comparison to the overview – that the eastern

region comprises 19% fatalities due to landslides.

The districts with high occurrence of landslides are

Taplejung,



Panchthar,Ilam,Sankhuwasabha,Solukhumbu, Okhaldhunga and Khotang. Taking the number

of deaths into consideration the districts remain most hit by landslides. The significantly high

reports on human deaths and other losses (building destroyed & damaged) in Eastern Region

are because of landslides with high impact in Okhaldhunga (1976), Jhapa (1980), Dhankuta

(1987) and Khotang (2002) etc .

The high number of affected people in Bhojpur (1996), Sankhuwasabha (2008),

Sankhuwasabha (2011) and Terhathum (2011) can be traced back to the fact of a severe

landslides (see above Map). However in the other districts have also high number of affected

people. The districts with extremely high economic losses are Khotang, Taplejung,

Okhaldhunga and Sankhuwasabha.

All thematic maps shows that the northern parts of this development region are more affected

than the southern areas. This can be ascribed first to the differences of the population density

and second to the severe weather conditions during the monsoon period.

Region No. of

occurrence

Deaths Missing Injuries Affected

Population

EDR

599

(18.6%)

900

(19%)

166

(26.4%)

355

(10.2%)

10, 4700

(17.4%)

CDR

920

(28.5%)

1,543

(32%)

212

(33.8%)

417

(23.8%)

300,720

(50%)

WDR

917

(28.4%)

1,313

(27.9%)

166

(26.4%)

577

(32.9%)

116,509

(19.3%)

MDWR

478

(14.8%)

492

(10.4%)

43

(6.8%)

224

(12.7%)

33,799

(5.6%)

FWDR

306

(9.5%)

443

(9.4%)

40

(6.3%)

179

(10.2%)

45,008

(7.4%)

Total 3,220 (100%) 4,691 (100%) 627 (100%) 1,752 (100%) 600,736 (100%)

Source : Nepal DesInventar Database, NSET 2015

7.2 Central Development Region (CDR)

Concerning the Central Development Region landslide prone districts are Dhading,

Sindhupalchoke, Kavre and Makwanpur. Especially the Makwanpur district is outstanding not

only because of the number of deaths but also because of the number of affected people (see

above Map). In this district fatalities are mainly caused by the landslide events during the

rainy seasons.

The number of affected people in Makwanpur, Dhading, Kavre and Dolakha districts is

remarkable. In-depth analysis as shown that topography is responsible for this high impact.

Whereas in the Terai district Dhanusa, the disaster of landslides affected a high number of

people and caused high financial losses.

It can be concluded from the database that landslides lies on third places (16% of all disasters)

in terms of most destructive and deadlist events in the central region.

7.3 Western Development Region (WDR)

In the Western Region, the districts with the highest numbers of landslides are Syangja,

Baglung, Kaski, Parbat and Lamjung. Otherwise, Kaski, Syangja, Myagdi, Baglung, Gulmi

and Tanahun encounter the highest number of deaths (see above Map). The events occurring

most in this region are landslides (21% of all disasters).

In Myagdi district, there is a high losses in terms of finance and the number of affected pople

are mainly due to destructive landslides. This supports the argument that the Hill region is

most affected by disastrous landslides. Moreover, the study shows that the Terai is somehow

affected by landslides is supported by the fact that the high number of affected people in the

Terai districts, especially in Rupandehi, can be ascribed to landslide events.



7.4 Mid-Western Development Region (MWDR)

The districts most at risk of landslides are Dailekh, Rukum, Jajarkot and Kalikot. Moreover

Pyuthan, Kalikot, Jajarkot, Rolpa and Dailekh comprise the highest number of fatalities in the

Mid-Western Region. The number of affected people in the Terai, as proven by the Dang and

Banke district, come off the effects of the landslides during monsoon season.

Comparing the ratio of number of events to number of deaths of the different development

regions one can conclude, that the landslides in the Mid-West are less destructive than in the

previous three regions. This can also be interpreted in the way that the mid-western districts

are more vulnerable to other type of disasters ; flood, epidemic etc.

7.5 Far Western Development Region (FWDR)

Considering the above maps the finding is that the districts most hit by landslides and also the

highest numbers of deaths. These districts are Darchula, Bajura, Doti and Baitadi. The

landslides are more severe which cause more than 9 % fatalities. Additionally the number of

affected people in the whole development regions comes off the side effects of the monsoon.

Moreover one can say likewise other regions, the districts in the Far Western Region are also

vulnerable to landslides as the numbers of events and deaths are fairly high. This means, that

the events of landslides are affecting on the population of Far-western development Regions.

8. CONCLUSION Nepal lies in a multi-hazard zone exposed to various types of disaster. However, due to the

various geography, topographic features, climatic variation and different levels of socio-

economic development within the country, the type, frequency and degree of the impact of

disasters differs from place to place.

Landslide impacts on human life, property and economy seems vary. Landslide is the most

destructive natural disaster in Nepal. It does not only cause a high number of casualties and

grave agricultural losses but also effects structures and infrastructure causing huge economic

loss. Landslides, moreover, occur on a regular basis during monsoon.

The trendline of landslide shows that in the beginning of 1990s, there was a high number of

landslide events. Moreover, the number of fatalities increased as well. In recent years, the

number of events and fatalities went down again.

Districts of hill region as well mountain region are mostly affected by disastrous landslide

events. However, the effects in the latter are more severe because landslides can cause other

disasters like flash flood. Among the development regions, central development region

recorded the highest number of human deaths 1,543 (32%) closely followed by western

development regions with 1,313 (27.9%) deaths (above table). Similarly eastern and mid-

western regions each have accounted for 19% and 10.4% respectively. Furthermore, in terms

of the affected population, Central development region has recorded the highest population

300,720 (50%) with the lowest in far western development region 45,008 (7.4%).

Querying disaster impact by political regions, mostly landslide disasters can be seen on the

central and eastern part of Nepal. Nearly 50 percent of landslides are recorded in these regions.

Moreover as the aforementioned regions have high population these landslide events have

also a high effect on people and property.

Furthermore, the high number of events does not imply a high number of deaths and vice

versa. For example in the mountainous part of the eastern development region, the number of

disaster events is high but due to the fact of a small density of population, the death toll is

rather low. However, in the far western region, where only a small number of events occur,

the death toll is lesser high. the analysis also shows that the landslides are highly interlinked

to the geographic conditions – whereas the northern mountains are highly affected by



landslides. The Hill districts mostly experiences the side effects of the landslides. And the

Terai suffers all monsoon effects – especially floods and landslides together.

One concluding remark for further research and mitigation approach is necessary in Nepal.

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http://www.proventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2009/UNDP_NP_Nepal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Sunkoshi_blockage

http://iaeg2006.geo/soc.org.uk/cd/PAPER/IAEG-819.PDF

http://www.np.undp.org/content/dam/nepal/docs/reports/UNDP_NP_UNDP%20Nepal%20Annual%20Report%202014.pdf

http://www.np.undp.org/content/dam/nepal/docs/reports/UNDP_NP_UNDP%20Nepal%20Annual%20Report%202014.pdf

trend and geographical distribution of landslides in nepal based on

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