TransportationandClimateInitiative:ReducingTransportation-SectorEmissions

intheNortheast&Mid-Atlantic

KateZyla,DeputyDirectorGeorgetownClimateCenter

July12,2016

TransportationandClimateInitiative• 11northeastandmid-AtlanticstatesandtheDistrictofColumbia

• TCIlaunched in2010

• WorkingtogethertoreduceenergyuseandGHGemissionsfromtransportation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GHGEm

issionsasPercento

f201

1Levels

Connecticut Delaware DistrictofColumbia Maine

Maryland Massachusetts NewHampshire NewJersey

NewYork Pennsylvania RhodeIsland Vermont

Notes:Maine“longterm”goalappliedto2050DE andPAhavenotdesignated2050goals

TCIStatesHaveSetEconomy-WideGHGReductionGoals

TransportationistheLargestandGrowingShareofGHGEmissionsinTCIRegion

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10%

20%

30%

40%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

EmissionsasP

ercentofTCIRegionalEmissions

Transportation

Electric Power

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

IndustrialProcesses

Agriculture

Waste

AnalysisDevelopedtoInformTCIIn2012,TCIleadersaskedtoworktogetheronmeaningfulmulti-stateemissionsreductionpolicies.• Whatareregionalemission

trends?• Whatareopportunitiesfor

GHGreductions?• Whatareeconomicimpacts

ofcleantransportationstrategies?

ExistingFederalandStatePolicieswillAchieveSignificantReductions…

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100

200

300

2015 2020 2025 2030

GHGEmission

s(M

MTCO2e)

…ButWillNotPutStatesonTracktoMeetLong-TermGoals

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100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GHGEmission

sasPercentof2

011Levels

ExistingFederalandStatePolicies29%reductionin2030from2011levels

Extrapolatedemissionreductionrate60%reductionin2050from2011levels

TCIStateEconomy-widegoalsconverge80%reductionin2050from1990levels

ExistingFederalPolicieswillReduceStateTransportationFunding

($millions)

AnalysisModeledThreeCleanTransportationInvestmentScenarios

• ModestInvestment– $1.5billionannualfunding

• ModerateInvestment– $3billionannualfunding

• AggressiveInvestment– $6billionannualfunding

InvestmentAllocationStrategy AllocationEV/alt.fuel infrastructureandincentives

20%

Urbanandintercitytransit 25%

Landuse/Smartgrowth 7.5%

Activetransportation 7.5%

TDMandEcodriving 10%

Systemoperations/Efficiency 15%

Freight/Intermodal 15%

Total 100%

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20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GHG

Emission

sasPe

rcen

tof2

011Levels

ResultingReductionsWouldHelpStatesAchieve2050Goals

ExistingFederalandStatePolicies29%reductionin2030from2011levels

RangeofreductionsfromInvestmentScenarios31%reductionscenario39%reductionscenario

“PolicyBundles”AnalysisCombinesInvestmentScenarioswithMarket-Based&FuelsPolicies

11

GHGEmissionReductionPotentialfrom“PolicyBundles”

29% Reduction Existing Federal & State Policies

33% Reduction ScenarioModerate Investment +$3 Billion Pricing

38% Reduction ScenarioModerate Investment +$3 Billion Pricing + Clean Fuels

40% Reduction ScenarioAggressive Investment + $6 Billion Pricing + Clean Fuels

32% Reduction ScenarioModest Investment + $3 Billion Pricing

Percentreductionby2030from2011GHGemissionlevels:

150

200

250

2015 2020 2025 2030

ComprehensivePolicyProceedsCouldbeUsedforTransportation

$3BillionAnnualRegionalInvestmentProjectedtoProvideSignificantBenefits

**Range reflects low-endandhigh-endoutcomes offourmodeled scenarios

Massachusetts resultsin2030:

Impact 2030 Cumulative2015-2030

↑inRegionalEmployment(Jobs) 91,000-125,000 794,000-1,167,000

↑inGrossRegionalProduct $11.7-17.7Billion $92-144Billion

↑inDisposablePersonalIncome $9.9-14.4Billion $71-109Billion

Jobs 10,000 to15,000

GrossRegional Product $1.4 to2.3Billion

Disposable Personal Income $1.1to$1.7Billion

ReducingCarbonPollutionCreatesOtherBenefits

• AssociatedreductioninothercriteriapollutantslikePM,NOx,etc.

• Improvedairqualityresultsinfewerprematuredeathsandthousandsofasthmacases

– Publichealthbenefitsvaluedat$152-463millionin2030

• Reducedvehicletravelwouldalsoresultinfeweraccidents,reducedwearonroadsandbridges

Implications for RGGI Program Review

• Howmuchshould/cantransportation-sectoremissionsreductionscontributetoeconomy-widegoals?

– Inwhattimeframe?

• Increasingelectrificationofvehiclesmeansshiftofemissions(andload)fromliquidfuelstopowersector

States’ Announcement

• InlateNovember,Connecticut,Delaware,theDistrictofColumbia,NewYork,RhodeIslandandVermontannouncedthattheywillworktogethertodeveloppotentialmarket-basedpoliciestoachievesubstantialreductionsinGHGemissionsfromthetransportationsector.

• ThroughTCI,representativesfromthesestateshavebegunmeetingtodiscussoptionsandexamplesformarket-basedpoliciesforthetransportationsector.

Thank YouForinquiries,pleasecontact

KateZyla202-661-6558

zyla@law.georgetown.edu

ReportisavailableonGeorgetownClimateCenterwebsite:http://www.georgetownclimate.org

• Reportmaterials: http://www.georgetownclimate.org/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-transportation-opportunities-in-the-northeast-and-mid-atlanti