traditional keynesian theory of fluctuations...pasar uang (mp or lm curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
BJ-IPB
Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations
oleh
Bambang JuandaDepartemen Ilmu Ekonomi
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen IPB
https://bambangjuanda.com/
![Page 2: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
BJ-IPB
• Pergerakan Naik atau Turun Berulang• Periodisitas dapat Bervariasi• Umumnya Berakhir 2 - 10 Tahun
Yn = YFE
Yaktual
Pendekatan (Analisis) Model:
1. Short-run; (asumsi P & W tetap)
2. Long-run (Medum-run); (asumsi P & W berubah)
3. Very Long-run (Long-run) Growth Theory
![Page 3: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Model Fluktuasi dgn asumsi ada hambatan dlm penyesuain P dan W nominal secara cepat.
Aggregate Demand
IS Curve (Pasar Barang)Pengeluaran yg direncanakan: EY turunan parsial E(.) thd Y=dE/dY
E = E(Y,r,G,T), 0< EY <1, Er <0, EG >0, ET <0 (5.1)
E = C(Y-T) + I(r) + G standard but unrealistic (5.2)
r memengaruhi C dan Y memengaruhi I
AS: Output Y Keseimbangan: E=Y Y=E(Y,r,G,T) (5.4)
dY/dr = dE/dY.dY/dr + dE/drKurva IS punya slope negatif (Gambar)
Er dan EY makin besar maka
slope IS makin landai.
(5.5)
(5.6)
BJ-IPB
![Page 4: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Kurva IS punya slope negatif(hubunga Y & r dlm kondisi keseimbangan
pasar barang)
Er dan EY makin besar maka
slope IS makin landai.
BJ-IPB
Er <0: r naik I & C turun Y turun
A & B titik keseimbangan:
AS = AD
Y = E = E(Y,r,G,T)
dY/dr = dE/dY.dY/dr + dE/dr
r
r’
A
B
= AS
= AD
0< EY <1, Er <0, EG >0, ET <0
![Page 5: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve)
bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe)
Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0
Taylor (1995): Bank Sentral tidak menargetkan M, tapi
menyesuaikannya utk mencapai target r. Target r
disesuaikan utk merespons perubahan output dan inflasi:
Slope Kurva MP atau LM positif (Gambar). M endogen, maka:
BJ-IPB
Kurva IS:
AS = AD
Y = E = E(Y,r,G,T)
+ -
+
The main debate
during the 1960s was
between Keynesians
(Government)
and monetarists
(Central Bank)
![Page 6: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
BJ-IPB
AS nanti
dibahas detail
IS: Y = E(Y,r,G,T) (5.4)
Target r:
r = r(Y,ᴨ), rY >0, rᴨ >0 (5.8)
0< EY <1, Er <0
LM(MP): Y naik MD naik > MS r naik
AD dari kurva IS dan LM (MP)
ᴨ naik target r naik LM ke atas
Y turun (pers 5.7. Gb 5.5) AD
LM:
Asumsi AS (P berubah):
ᴨ = ᴨ(Y); ᴨY = ᴨ’(.)≥0
![Page 7: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Impact of this change in AD
on output and inflation depends
on the AS curve. If it is vertical,
only inflation increase. If it is
horizontal, only output increase.
And if it is upward-sloping but
not vertical, both output and
inflation increase
Fig 5.6 The Effects of an
Increase in Gov’t Purchases
BJ-IPB
Klasik: ASLong-run
ASShort-run (Keynes)
ASNew (Classical, Keynes)
ᴨ’
ᴨ
Yn
![Page 8: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Ch
ap
ter
3: T
he
Go
od
s M
ark
et
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall • Macroeconomics, 5/e • Olivier Blanchard 8 of 32
An increase in autonomous spending has a more
than one- for-one effect on equilibrium output.
The Effects of an Increase in
Autonomous Spending on Output.
The Determination of Equilibrium Output
Following this logic, the total increase in
production after, say, n + 1 rounds, equals
$1 billion multiplied by the sum:
1 + c1 + c12 + …+ c1
n
Such a sum is called a geometric series.
= ΔG
ΔY = (1 + c1 + c12 + …+ c1
n ) ΔG
![Page 9: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Dinamika Model Makro (Keyness) Sederhana
• AS (Aggregate Supply) = AD (Aggregate Demand)
• Y = C + I + G + (EX-IM)
• Misal: C= co + c1 (Y-T) dan EX-IM=0
•Y = co + c1 (Y-T) + I + G
Yc
c I G c T
1
1 1
0 1[ ]
Pdptn APBN
Multiplier Effect
BJ-IPB
=E(Y,r,G,T) (5.4)
![Page 10: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Model Makro (Keyness) Sederhana• AS (Aggregate Supply) = AD (Aggregate Demand)
• Y = C + I + G + (EX-IM)
• Misal: C= co + c1 (Y-T) dan EX-IM=0
•Y = co + c1 (Y-T) + I(Y,i) + G
Yc
c I G c T
1
1 1
0 1[ ]
Pdptn APBN
BJ-IPB
=E(Y,r,G,T) (5.4)
![Page 11: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
BJ-IPB
![Page 12: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
BJ-IPB
Yn = YFEYaktual
Periodisitas dapat Bervariasi
Countercyclical Policy?
![Page 13: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Perkembangan Output akibat peningkatan AD dan/atau AS
Y=F(K,L,Tek..)
IS: Y=C(Y-T)+I(Y,i)+G+(X-M)
W P F u ze ( , )
P W ( )1
LM relation: M
P YL i( )
Misal Y = A.N = NL = N + UU = L - N
P P FY
Lze
( ) ,1 1
BJ-IPB
Y YM
PG T
, ,
- +
+ + -
Sumber: Blanchard (2017)
![Page 15: Traditional Keynesian Theory of Fluctuations...Pasar Uang (MP or LM curve) bunga nominal (i) =bunga riil(r) + ekspektasi inflasi (ᴨe) Asumsi: M eksogen, P tetap, dan ᴨe=0 Taylor](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052615/608e4acea7466733d65451bf/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Ch
ap
ter
7: P
utt
ing
All
Ma
rke
ts T
og
eth
er:
Th
e A
S–A
DM
od
el
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall • Macroeconomics, 5/e • Olivier Blanchard
Semoga bermanfaat
Sampai ketemu di topik yang lain
Terima kasih(Salam, BJ)
Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen
Institut Pertanian Bogor
BJ-IPB