todd johnson, lcseg november 6, 2013. on average, electricity access rates in lcr are high but there...
TRANSCRIPT
Latin America Energy Sector
Todd Johnson, LCSEG
November 6, 2013
On average, electricity access rates in LCR are high but there are large inter-and intra-country differences
Figure: National electricity coverage Type Country
National electricity coverage
(%)
Electricity coverage in rural areas
(%)
Electricity coverage in urban areas
(%)
Population w/o
electricity (millions)
Haiti 36.0 - 45 5.4 Honduras 69.0 45 94 2.2
Bolivia 64.4 28 85 3.3 LO
W
Nicaragua 69.3 40 90 1.6
Perú 72.3 30 - 7.8 Guatemala 78.6 - - 2.7 El Salvador 79.5 72 97 1.4
Panamá 85.2 - - 0.5 Paraguay 85.8 - - 0.8 M
ED
IUM
Colombia 86.1 55 93 6.2
Ecuador 90.3 54 96 1.3 Dom. Republic 92.5 40 - 0.7
Argentina 95.4 70 - 1.8 Uruguay 95.4 - - 0.2 México 96.0 95 100 4.1 Brazil 96.5 - - 6.5
Costa Rica 98.5 87 100 0.1 Chile 98.6 90 - 0.2
HIG
H
Venezuela 98.6 - - 0.4
LAC 91
(weighted average)
47.2
(total)
LO
WM
ED
HIG
H
93 70 99
40 23 67
Average World 78 63 93
Average AFR
Average LAC
MediumHigh
Low
N.A
3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6%
66% 65% 66%62% 58% 59% 58% 58% 59%
9% 9% 10%14% 16% 17% 19% 20% 19%
20% 19% 17% 18% 18% 16% 14% 14% 14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005COAL HYDRO NATURAL GAS NUCLEAR OIL SOURCES
Hydro generation in LCR accounts for nearly 60% of power generation
Coal and other energy sources account for a small share of
power generation in LAC.
Hydroelectricity has been the
dominant source of electricity for
the region but its share has been
declining
Petroleum use has declined overall but
remains significant for some countries and sub-regions
Natural gas usage has been growing
Generation Mix: Latin America and Caribbean
Six countries account for 84 percent of total electricity production in the LAC Region
MEXICO20.8%
BRAZIL35.7%CARIBBEAN
3.8%
CENTRAL AMERICA3.1%
CHILE4.4%
PARAGUAY4.5%
COLOMBIA 4.6%
OTHER** 4.6%
VENEZUELA9.0%
ARGENTINA9.4%
Market share of total electricity production(2005)
ICEPAC. Technology generation mix
Under the "baseline supply scenario" -- which aggregates and extrapolates the current country expansion plans in the Region -- the vast majority of the increase in generating capacity over the coming two decades would be met by hydropower (36 percent) and natural gas (35 percent).
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
GWhr
Biomass Coal Diesel Wind Fuel Oil Gas Geothermal Hydro Nuclear
% Mix 2008 % Mix 2030
Biomass 0.5% 2.0%Coal 4.6% 7.9%Diesel 2.3% 1.2%Wind 0.1% 1.3%Fuel Oil 8.4% 3.3%Gas 22.0% 29.4%Geothermal 1.0% 0.8%Hydro 58.6% 50.0%Nuclear 2.8% 4.2%
Region-Wide Electricity Generation Mix (2008-
2030)Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
Fuel oil
Wind
Diesel
Coal
Biomass
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
GWhr
Biomass Coal Diesel Wind Fuel Oil Gas Geothermal Hydro Nuclear
Knowledge and Analytical Work
MexicoLatin America
BrazilCentral America
HondurasOECS Countries
PeruChileHaiti
ColombiaBolivia
NicaraguaCosta Rica
Dominican RepublicDominica
CaribbeanArgentina
Guatemala
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Volume of support for KP+AAA work
1999-2013
LAC has the smallest public sector energy lending program in the Bank
11291
48716389
2259
3471
6325
IBRD/IDA energy lendingFY07-13
AFR EAP
ECA LCR
MNA SAR
IFC has had a significant share of WBG lending in the energy sector
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
LAC Energy Lending, by ProductUSD Millions
IBRD IDA MIGA IFC Other
Private sector investment continues to dominate LAC energy
*2009-2012. Data for 2013 unavailable. Source: PPI Datavase
76403430
5055.49106109025
75603
Energy lending in LAC 2009-2013
USD millions
IDBCAFWBGPrivate*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Global private in-vestment in energy
LAC SAR EAP ECA MENA SSA
Urban Energy AgendaTRACE AssessmentsPrioritizing energy eff iciency
investmentsNational energy eff iciency
programsPotential support from WBG,
GEF, and climate funds
