Assessment of drought impact on forest ecosystems

Activity 5.2. Milestone 3: Elaboration of maps for

current climate, 2050 and 2070 in Bulgaria, Lithuania,

Slovenia and Ukraine (pilot area) , and determination of vulnerability zones of forest ecosystems

Activity Leader: Galia Bardarska 3rd IDMP CEE Workshop Budapest, 2 & 4 October 2014

Experts team

Lithuania: Gintautas Stankūnavičius – leader, Vidas

Stakėnas

Slovenia: Primož Simončič – leader, Urša Vilhar, Lado

Kutnar, Andrej Kobler

Bulgaria: Vesselin Alexandrov – leader, Ivan Raev,

Galia Bardarska

Ukraine: Igor Buksha – leader, Tatiana Pyvovar,

Maksym Buksha, Volodymyr Pasternak

Work done since the 2nd IDMP CEE workshop till now (April 2014 – October 2014)

1. On the base of WorldClim dataset

http://www.worldclim.org/node/1 more than 100

maps (air temperature, precipitation and De

Martonne index) were created for the 4 GWP CEE

countries:

• Current (1950-2000) climate conditions and De

Martonne index;

• Future (2050 and 2070) climate conditions and

De Martonne index; (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6,

and RCP8.5).

4 pathways which are used for climate modeling and research, adopted by the IPCC in fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

pessimistic RCP (8.5)

and optimistic

(RCP2.6) scenarios

IDM Climate

classification

Vulnerability zones

Name Color Vulnerability level

10-25 Semiarid A Red Very high

25-30 Moderately arid B Orange High

30-35 Slightly humid C Yellow Medium

35-40 Moderately humid D Green

40-50 Humid E Light blue Low

50-60 Very humid F Blue

˃ 60 Excessively humid G Dark blue from Medium to Very high

2. Determination of the vulnerability zones of the current

climate and years of 2050 and 2070

(RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5)

Country determination of vulnerability zones is based on the following values of the

index of de Martonne (IDM):

Temperature for current climate and optimistic scenario RCP2.6 in 2070

Precipitation for current climate and optimistic scenario RCP2.6 in 2070

Air temperature for current climate in Bulgaria

Precipitation for current climate Bulgaria

De Martonne index for current climate in Bulgaria

De Martonne index for RCP2.6 in 2050 Bulgaria

De Martonne index for RCP8,5 in 2050 Bulgaria

Present climate of Ukraine by climate classification (De Martonne Classes)

Climate classification

Vulner- ability zones

Color Vulner-ability level

Semiarid A Red Very high

Moderately arid B Orange High

Slightly humid C Yellow Medium

Moderately humid

D Green Medium

Humid E Light blue

Low

Very humid F Blue Low

Excessively humid

G Dark blue

from Medium to Very high

Forest areas on pilot territory by De Martonne classes in present climate and in RCP's (thouth. ha)

All climatic scenarios forecast sufficient aridization of climate on the whole pilot territory by 2050 and 2070 years that is unfavorable for forest vegetation.

All scenarios forecast significant aridization in northern part of the pilot territory and disappearance of moderately humid climate (D-zone), with the most productive forests.

Forest areas by climate classification in present and in RCP 2,6

2070

2050

Present climate (1950-2000)

RCP 2,6 is the “optimistic” scenario of climate change that is characterized by aridization of climate on the pilot territory by 2050, more significant on the north (Sumy region) where climate will change from moderately humid to moderately arid, less on center (Kharkiv region) – change form slightly humid to moderately arid and appearance of semiarid climate on the south (Lugansk region).

By 2070 this scenario provides slight more humid climate comparing to 2050 but not to the present climate values: in Sumy region – slight humid climate is expected, in Kharkiv and Lugansk – moderately arid (only on east of Lugansk region semiarid climate will remained).

Forest areas by climate classification in present and in RCP 4,5

2070

2050

Present climate (1950-2000)

RCP 4,5 is characterized by gradual aridization of the climate on the whole territory by 2070: all territory of Lugansk region and southern and central districts of Kharkiv region will become semiarid, and all remaining part of the pilot territory will become moderately arid.

Forest areas by climate classification in

present and in RCP 6,0

2070

2050

Present climate

(1950-2000)

According to RCP 6,0 sufficient aridization of climate is expected: by 2050

Sumy and northern part of Kharkiv region will become moderately arid, while

on the remaining part of Kharkiv and all Lugansk the climate will be semiarid.

By 2070 the large part of the territory will become moderately arid, only in

eastern and central districts of Lugansk region it will be semiarid climate.

Forest areas by climate classification in present and in RCP 8,5

2070

2050

Present climate (1950-2000)

The worst climatic conditions for forest vegetation are expected according to RCP8.5 scenario: by 2050 the large territory (all Lugansk, all Kharkiv regions and southern districts (Lebedin, Trostynets and Ohtyrka) and northern districts (Seredino-Buda and Shostka) of Sumy region will become semiarid; than climate will become drier and by 2070 the whole pilot territory will have semiarid climate.

Changes in allocation of tree species area by climate classification (present climate (2000) and RCP 2,6 ), Thous. ha

2000 2050 2070

Main tree species

Modera- tely arid

Slightly humid

Modera-tely

humid

Semi arid

Moderat-ely

arid

Semiarid

Modera-tely arid

Slightly humid

B C D A B A B C

Que rob 103,4 155,8 75,2 55,7 278,7 6,5 238,1 89,8

Pin syl 128,5 71,7 126,4 71,5 255,1 18,2 177,3 131,1

Fra exc 24,4 9,0 17,3 10,4 40,2 0,6 28,9 21,1

Rob pse 21,3 2,1 0,3 9,9 13,8 0,5 22,8 0,4

Aln glu 3,1 1,7 5,8 1,9 8,7 1,0 3,2 6,4

Bet pen 2,1 0,3 2,9 1,9 3,4 0,2 2,2 2,9

Pop tre 0,6 1,0 3,5 0,3 4,8 0,1 1,5 3,5

Pic abi 1,2 1,2 1,2

other coniferous

2,7 0,2 1,4 1,5 2,9

other deciduous

22,1 5,5 5,9 14,8 18,7 2,1 25,2 6,2

Total 308,2 247,3 238,5 167,8 626,1 29,2 502,1 262,6 19

Changes in allocation of Oak and Pine area by climate classification (present climate (2000) and RCP 2,6 ), Thous. ha)

20

Tree species productivity (growing stock) in different climate condition (m3 per ha)

In present climate the most favorable climate conditions for forests in terms of timber productivity

are in moderately humid climate.

Productivity of Oak, Pine and Ash decrease on 40% in moderately arid climate comparing to

moderately humid.

Some of tree species (eg spruce) can only grow in humid climates and when climatic conditions

will change, spruce will disappear.

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Final outputs at the moment

Discussions on maps of different scenarios and determination of vulnerability zones in each country. After common approval of the results, the report of Milestone 3 will be presented in October, 2014.

Difficulties

There are some problems with actual forests data.

Production of more than 100 maps and its checking took much more time than planned before.

Changes from the original plan

The future period 2100 was changed with 2070 according to IPCC AR5. PRG approved the change of the year 2100 for the future period into 2070.

Links with other IDMP CEE activities

There is a link with Act. 2.1, but also with other activities which will be confirmed after Budapest meeting.

Plans for the final period (October 2014 – March 2015)

- to the end of 2014: preparing the report of Milestone 3, establishment of programs for forest adaptation measures and mitigation the negative effect of climate change on them in 4 GWP CEE countries, organization of NCDs,

- March 2015: preparing the final report on Act. 5.2 according to PRG comments and dissemination of data (publications, CDs production etc.).

Final outputs

Comparative analysis of climate change impact on

forests between 4 GWP CEE and establishment of

recommendations for forest adaptation measures and

mitigation actions.

Forest fire in April 2014, Lithuania

Forest fire in April 2014, Lithuania

Forest fire in April 2014, Lithuania

Problems expected

Limited computer resources to process high resolution gridded climate and forestry data.

Change from the original plan

Regarding the actual local problems, new documents on climate changes impact and PRG comments the final content of Act.5.2 case will be up-dated.

Implementation of the results and follow-up activities

Some results of the Act. 5.2 would be involved in second RBMPs. There are different ideas for follow-up projects regarding the relation between water and forests.