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IDMP/DMCSEEFOLLOW-UP TOPICS From ideas to proposal4th Workshop Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern EuropeBucharest, Romania, April 19-22, 2015dr. Andreja Sunik

Meteorological OfficeDrought management center for SEE Europeandreja.susnik@gov.si

REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENTSLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY1IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEEWidden the pool Main topics Discussion and ideas 1st round of discussionREPUBLIC OF SLOVENIAMINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND THE ENVIRONMENTSLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

DMCSEE course of activities2013-2015

3Widden the pool4th DMCSEE International Steering Committee meeting and 3rd Global Water Partnership IDMP-CEE workshop,Hungary, Budapest, 2 4 October 2014

4Document (project topics) launched by GWP & DMCSEE February 2015 (deadline for comments, suggestions until 31st March 2015).IDMP GWP CEE partners & DMCSEE steering committee (including ad hoc working group) were invited to participate;Project consultant funded by GWP;Content: results of IDMP CEE with the goal to increase the capacity of CEE to adapt to climatic variability by enhancing resilience to drought; Outcomes of DMCSEE projects & operational work.4 major thematic areas were proposed:DROUGHT MONITORINGUPGRADING DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT (DROUGHT RISK ATLAS FOR CEE/SEE)DROUGHT COST ASSESSMENTDROUGHT MANAGEMENT DISSEMINATION

Deadline for comments, suggestions until 31st March 2015.Project topics/ideas5

53rd PRG comments & suggestions: IDMP CEE Activities: Lot of work is half-way, but very valuable and can easily be lost. Follow-up is urgently required.Development pro-active Drought Management Plan in an integrated land and water management framework, incl. WFD RBMPsThinking in a two temporal scales modes- Operational mode (ongoing (multiple-year) drought, next year drought)- Strategic mode (far future drought, prepared for global change).Corner stones activities (10 steps of drought DMP)How to write winning proposal? (again steps), consortium, core group/coordinator, guidelines

IDMP wrap up for follow-up 6

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Lets check our draft concept!7IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEEWidden the pool Main topics Discussion and ideas 1st round of discussionDescription:Development of products for improved drought monitoring end early warning system (operational mode?) in CEE and SEE connection to DMCSEE and EDO platforms. All types of drought monitoring!Focus on REMOTE SENSING (Eumetsat Land monitoring services, Copernicus, higher spatial/temporal resolution).IDMP CEE: demonstration project 5.5 (agricultural drought) & follow up ideasImplementation in follow-up project:State-of-the-art analysis (CEE /SEE RS monitoring, case studies).Promote new RS products (experimental fields/verification).Analysis of existing RS methodologies in the region (case studies).Combining various approaches (RS, field measurements, crop simulation models) to estimate vegetation drought status.Recommendations for operational use of RS in drought monitoring in the region. Thematic area 1: Drought monitoring (working title)9

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Situation of Combined Drought Indicator in Europe - 3rd ten-day period of March 2015

EDO key points/next stepsEDO is implemented as a multi-scale distributed system based on interoperable map servers.Core indicators are implemented at all scales. They are complemented by regionally relevant indicators.Continuous stakeholder involvement ensures both sound results and the acceptance of the system.

EDO next Steps:Increase the number of indicators at European level.Enlarge the number of interoperable observatories.Improve medium to long-range forecasting Hazard & risk analysis (incl. CC scenarios)

Description:Civil Protection Mechanism, EC decision (No. 1313/2013/EU) requires from the Member States (in Article 6) to prepare RISK ASSESSMENTS on national and sub national levels ( by the end of 2015); update every three years. Obligation of each government to prepare the disaster risk assessment. List of disasters are left to decision of the member states (next reporting cycle end of 2018).Implementation in follow-up project (outcomes):State-ofthe-art analysis. Promotion of the same approach - drought risk assessment according to ECs Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management (3 steps approach: risk identification - risk analysis risk evaluation). Cooperation with Civil protection - responsible for preparation of the risk assessment plans in countries. Thematic area 2: Upgrading drought risk assessment13

13Regional multisectoral drought impactsIn past decades the drought-related damages in the region of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) have had large impact on the economy and welfare, mainly reflected in destroyed crops and devastaded farmland, disturbed water-supply, hydroenergy, transport, .

Vir: Tuzla problemi sa vodoopskrbo. Sutra, 2011

Last DMCSEE projects mainly focused on agriculture, limited in forestry.From droughts to floods in SEE

World Bank. 2015. SEE Regular Economic ReportObrenovac, SerbiaObrenovac, SerbiaDescription:Developing Drought Risk Atlas for SEE and CEE. While this process can take up to 3 years (example from USA) it is envisaged to first choose pilot areas where foundations for such an atlas will be developed. Drought Risk Atlas as a web-based tool that provides visualizations of historic drought data for specific locations. Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes):Selection of a pilot areas.Selections of drought indices.Climate change projections.Thematic area 2.1: Drought risk atlas for CEE/SEE16

16Including climate change projections

(EEA, 2012) Mean relative changes in water-limited crop yield simulated by the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with 19611990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario.17Description:Classification of the costs related to droughts; fixed, direct and indirect, non-market.Comparison in different pilot areas, development of common methodology.Cost of mitigation and climate change adaptation costs. Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes):Methodology for assessment of the drought costs will be developed (or test already developed methodology CONHAZ project).Innovative financial instruments for drought risk management (insurance) Few pilot areas within partners countries will be selected where methodology will be tested. Cooperation with economists.Common platform for financial instruments. Thematic area 3: Drought cost assesment18

18How to manage water suficit/deficit?

19Description:Some of the information about the current status for CEE countries can be taken for example from the two IDMP CEE outputs Review of the current status (act. 1.2) and the Guidelines for preparation of the Drought Management Plan according to the WFD (act. 2.1) Implementation in the follow-up project:Proposed scheme would be adjusted for the region CEE&SEE.Partners within the project/activity will update the scheme according to their current status.Policy recommendations for improvement of the current drought management within each country will be prepared and presented to the decision-makers (on a regional and national level).Thematic area 4: Drought management20

20Where to include drought management?

The integrated water resources management is advocated in EU WFD, and number of policies however the implementation of that approach is missing;to propose management options (decision support for suppliers and authorities).

21based on identified weaknessesGuidelines for DMPTo launch the initiatives focused on harmonization of methods used for development of the main elements of DMP:assessment of historical drought events, drought indicator system in connection with drought monitoring, thresholds for classification of drought stages,early warning system. To develop guidelines for the weakest elements of planning process:risk assessment (single and multiply risks assessment)climate change assessment To initiate demonstration projects focused on quantitative water management issues (e.g. e-flows, water accounts)

http://www.droughtmanagement.info/Activity 7.1: Developing a Compendium of good practices10 Countries that form GWP Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 7 steps???

23Description:New approaches how to get to the end users; how to transfer the knowledge, experiences, products not only to research institutes, ministries, etc. but to the stakeholders which can use the products (farmers, insurance companies, water managers, public authorities, ). From experiences in IDMP CEE - still a lot to do also in terms of raising awareness about drought conditions in the region (IDMP Helpdesk)Implementation in the follow-up project:Raising awareness campaigns (involving national TVs, radios, social media)Journalist workshopDecision makers workshop (WMO, FAO?)Specialized seminars for end users (e.g. farmers), open daysOrganize a field visit to an already working projectSocial media campaignToolbox for childrenThematic area (1-4): Dissemination end users24

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Dissemination platformshttp://www.gwp.org/en/GWP-CEE/IDMPCEE/25

www.dmcsee.org26Hot spot - short summary, short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue.Additional and auxiliary information (such as methodology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation)Report on impacts (more about agricultural drought impacts is missing!)OutlookDrought Bulletin for SE Europe (mission of DMCSEE adhoc group)

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Instructions for better drought management and drought policy

29IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEEWidden the pool Main

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