The World This Week November 14 – November 18, 2011

Equity View: The Q2 earnings have been disappointing for several sectors. While private Banks, automobiles and pharmaceuticals witnessed good set of numbers, companies in infrastructure, capitals goods & real estate have continued to disappoint. We have the cabinet meeting on Monday to decide whether FDI should be allowed in the retail sector. There is an expectation of 51% of FDI being allowed multi brands retail. With the Italian bonds yields closer to 7%, debt servicing will be extremely difficult & expensive. The Spanish bond yields have also been rising lately. Last week, new Government came into office in Spain after Italy & Greece in the Eurozone. It will be important to watch the steps taken by the new government for stabilizing the debt crisis. The results of the elections in Spain are expected to be declared on 21 November 2011. US Super committee is expected to come up with deficit reduction plan by Wednesday, 23 November 2011. The plan revolves around reduction of deficit by $1.2 trillion in the next 10 years. No agreement has been reached till now. Commodity View: Concerns in Eurozone remain with Italy and France also getting involved in the debt crisis. Also the sell-off witnessed last week in the global equity markets has turned out to be a positive for precious metals especially gold. Gold is being considered as a safer investment avenue than debt. Fourth quarter of the calendar year has always been a strong quarter for gold being the festive season. Strong buying by the investors during this period has being witnessed and hence we expect gold to continue doing well. And with further expectations of rupee depreciating beyond 51, the domestic prices of gold will go up higher though the international gold prices remain flattish. Crude continues to correct and we expect the correction in crude & base metal space predominantly due to global slowdown. News:

DOMESTIC MACRO:

India's food price index declined to 10.63% from last week’s 11.81%.

India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $314.339 billion on Nov. 11, from $314.665 billion in the previous week.

The Reserve Bank on Wednesday said it will buyback bonds from the market to ease a liquidity crunch in the banking system, a move which is expected to cool the sharp spike in yields that have raised the government's borrowing costs.

GLOBAL MACRO

Euro:

The International Monetary Fund is inserting itself more forcefully into Europe's efforts to resolve its debt crisis, hoping to stem a contagion that is spreading worldwide and threatening global growth.

Greece's austerity-fuelled recession drove the budget deficit wider in October. The central government deficit grew by an annual 11 percent to 20.10 billion euros ($27.19 billion) in the first 10 months of the year

The euro zone economy grew just 0.2 percent in the third quarter as solid growth in Germany and France was dampened by countries at the sharp end of the debt crisis and economists expect a slide into recession by early next year.

US:

Fitch Ratings warned that it might reduce its "stable" rating outlook for U.S. banks with large capital markets businesses because of contagion from problems in troubled European markets.

By a vote of 298 to 121, the Republican-controlled House passed a bill that would allow the government to keep running when current funding expires on Saturday.

New U.S. claims for jobless benefits hit a seven-month low last week and permits for future home construction rebounded strongly in October, the latest data to suggest the economic recovery was gaining traction

Swapnil Pawar Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Palak Nanjani Neha Arora Kanika Khorana

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