the new ‘normal’ - asx · craig james. chief economist, commsec, march 2011. the new...
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Craig JamesChief Economist, CommSec, March 2011
The New ‘Normal’ Opportunities in a post-GFC world
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Important information
This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.
Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the ASX Group.
Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.
New ‘Normal’
Ascent of ChinaImportance of commoditiesConsumer conservatismTight job marketsGlobal investment marketsHigher Australian dollarInterest rates under regular review
Issue: Global economySo What? Exchange rates, trade, sharemarket, interest rates
Drivers of world economy -Contribution to growth 2011
China 0.81%
United States 0.74%
India 0.18%
Japan 0.14%
Newly Industrialised Asia* 0.13%
Germany 0.13%
ASEAN 5 # 0.12%
Brazil 0.11%
Russia 0.10%
United Kingdom 0.08%
France 0.07%
Canada 0.05%
Other countries 1.70%
World 4.40%Source: IMF & CommSec* Newly industrialised Asia – Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea# ASEAN 5 – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam
Issue: InflationSo What? Interest rates, social stability, consumer spending
Issue: ClimateSo What? Retail, transport, agriculture, insurance, construction
Highest levels for theSouthern Oscillation Index
(SOI) August 1917 34.8April 1904 31.7November 1973 31.6December 2010 27.1June 1950 26.9Source: BOM & CommSec
Codrington, Stephen. Planet Geography 3rd Edition (2005)
Issue: Mining boomSo What? Interest rates, investment, economic policy
Drivers of the Australian economy 2007 – 2010, % contribution to the change in GDP
Mining 17.4%Professional, scientific and technical services 11.9%Construction 11.6%Financial and insurance services 10.8%Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10.8%Healthcare and social assistance 9.7%Education and training 5.1%Public administration and safety 5.1%Transport, postal and warehousing 3.8%Wholesale trade 3.5%Source: ABS & CommSec
More than just mining…
Mining, construction & transport grow…manufacturing, utilities, rural lose ground…
Issue: Job marketSo What? Interest rates, spending, costs, migration
Job creation 2010
Total 368,600 3.3%65+ 18,200 5.9%25-34 139,200 5.7%55-64 75,400 5.0%45-54 56,400 2.3%35-44 53,200 2.1%15-24 26,100 1.3%Source: ABS & CommSec
Issue: SpendingSo What? Winners/losers, interest rates, stock pickers
Relax at home with a good book –Selected sectors
December quarter 2010Inflation adjusted spending Quarter
changeNewspapers, books 6.1%Hardware, building & garden 5.4%Clothing retailing 4.2%Furniture, floor covering 3.2%All retail -0.3%Supermarkets -0.3%Sporting goods, toys -1.3%Cafes, restaurants -7.3%Footwear, jewellery -8.4%Source: ABS & CommSec
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Issue: HousingSo What? Builders, building materials, interest rates
Issue: Housing pricesSo What? Asset allocation, wealth, spending
Issue: Interest ratesSo What? Fixed/floating, asset allocation, returns
Issue: CurrencySo What? Asset allocation, budgeting, profitability, competition
Issue: SharesSo What? Returns, portfolios, investor education, active/passive
Issue: PortfoliosSo What? Risk versus return, diversification, history & view
CommSec forecasts
ForecastsEconomic growth 2.75-3.00% in 2010/11 3.50% in 2011/12
Inflation 2.75% in 2010/11 2.75%-3.00% in 2011/12
Unemployment 4.75-5.00%, mid 2011 4.25-4.50%, end 2011
Cash rate 5.00%, mid 2011 5.50%, end 2011
Sharemarket (Australian)
5,100 points, mid 2011 5,400 points, end 2011
Australian dollar US99c in June 2011 US92c in December 2011
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