the italian asset management market - assogestioni143,12186/2017-09-26-the...key figures 26...

The Italian Asset Management marketkey figures

26 September 2017

Research Department

Key figures26 September 2017

The Italian Asset Management market

Research Department

1. The Italian Asset Management market

Overview

Open-end funds: AuM, flows & Asset classes

Open-end funds: Distribution

Mandates and the insurance market

2. The European Investment Fund Industry

Net assets & sales by fund / fund group domicile

3. Savings & Wealth

Household saving rate: trend & int’l comparison

Household financial portfolio & private pension plans

Research Department The Italian Asset Management market Key figures

26 September 2017

44

The Italian AM market (Jan 2016: August 2017)

898

935

+55.7

+0.6%

I…

+29.1Perf.

Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Aug 2017

+3.0%

%

+16.2

+11.7

Mand.

Funds

993

49%

1,833

Perf. 51%

+35.2

+20.5

951

M7+M8

+27.9 II

2016

1,022

2,032+28.4

+0.7

1,010

+11.0

+7.9

50%

50%

+19.0

1,944


26 September 2017

5

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2015



Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug€ bn

Net flows (monthly data)

Monthly data. Source: Assogestioni.


26 September 2017

6

+2.7+1.3

‐0.8+9.4

+7.4

2017 IIV

2016 III

M7+M8II

+1.0

+1.5

II

‐0.5

+2.3

+0.5

2016 III IV 2017 I

M7+M8

+0.06

+0.28

+0.69+0.11

+0.39

M7+M8

IV

2017 I

2016 III

II

+16.0

II

+6.0

+16.1

+28.1

+10.6

2016 III

IV

M7+M8

2017 I

6%129

Product breakdown

6

4%

43

43%881

Open‐end Funds

Retail Mandates (discretionary portfolios)

Closed‐end Funds

Institutional Mandates

97248% 3%

50


26 September 2017

7€bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni.

Long term trend


26 September 2017

8

n.a.

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

0 3 6 9 12 15

14%

n.a.

+18.3

12%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

0 2 4 6 8 10

82%

74%

60%

199 ‐ 10%

300 ‐ 15%

3%

2%

482 ‐ 24%

4%

4%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

JPMORGAN AM

ARCA

BANCO BPM

AXA

BNP PARIBAS

AZIMUT

MEDIOLANUM

ALLIANZ

UBI BANCA

BLACKROCK

ANIMA HOLDING

POSTE ITALIANE

AMUNDI

FIDEURAM

EURIZON

GENERALI

Net sales as % AuMFunds

€bn

AuM (August 2017) Net flows – 2017 :M8 2016

Mand. + –x%: Mkt share8

Top 15 Groups



Research Department


Overview






3. Savings & Wealth




26 September 2017

10

2017 :M8Domestic +10.2Round‐Trip +18.0

True Cross‐Border +26.6

0

4

8

12

16

20

2017 I II M7+M8

+32.2

+26.3

+5.3

+30.4

+44.7

+20.3+28.5

+23.5

+8.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2014 2015 2016

Open-end funds: domicile breakdown

AuM & net flows, €bn. 10

Aug 2017972

Dec 2013

557

Dec 2016

901

28%

42%

30%

26%

31%43%


26 September 2017

11

Long term trend: open-end funds

€bn, yearly data. Source: Assogestioni.

PioneerpreviouslyRound-Trip

9%


26 September 2017

12

n.a.

n.a.

+12.7

0% 4% 8% 12% 16%

0 2 4 6 8

n.a.

n.a.Q1

+7.5

+8.9

+11.9

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

0 1 2 3 4 5

81%

70%

6%

3%

8%

12%

4%

15%149

2%

5%53%

7%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

DEUTSCHE BANK

SCHRODERS

FIDELITY

PICTET AM

INVESCO

ARCA

UBI BANCA

JPMORGAN AM

AZIMUT

MEDIOLANUM

ANIMA HOLDING

BLACKROCK

GENERALI

AMUNDI

FIDEURAM

EURIZON

Top 15 Groups (open-end funds only)

12

Net sales as % AuM

€bn


+ –x%: Mkt shareDomestic Round‐Trip True Cross‐Border


26 September 2017

13

35%

17%

8%

21%

7%

9%

9%

11%

5%

2%

3%

41%

47%

39%

42%

10%

24%

41%

23%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

TRUE CROSS‐BORDER

ROUND‐TRIP

DOMESTIC

TOTAL

Equity Balanced Money Market Bond Flexible Hedge

Asset Class breakdown

13June 2017.

248 bn – 26%

295 bn – 31%

402 bn – 43%


26 September 2017

14

+10.2

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

0 1 2 3 4

4%

10%

24%

4%

9%

5%

13%

21%

5%

5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

BALANCED

OTHER

SPECIAL. SECTOR

GLOBAL

SPECIAL. COUNTRY

EMERGING MKTS

PACIFIC AREA

AMERICA

EUROPE

EURO AREA

ITALY

Equity & balanced funds

Net sales as % AuMDomestic

€bn

AuM (June 2017) Net flows – 2017 II 2016

Round‐Trip + –x%: Mkt shareTrue Cross‐Border14

+4.4

0% 3% 6% 9% 12%

0 1 2 3 4


26 September 2017

15

+8.4

+13.6

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

0 1 2 3 4 5

221

1%

21%

18%

21%

7%

7%

3%

10%

8%

5%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

HEDGE

FLEX

FLEX (BOND)

SPECIALIZED

MIXED

EM

GLOBAL

DOLLAR AREA

EURO CORPORATE / HY

EURO GOV. M/L TERM

EURO GOV. SHORT T.

ITALY

MM FUNDS

Net sales as % AuM

€bn


+ –x%: Mkt share15

Money mkt, Bond, Flex & Hedge funds

+13.4

0% 6% 12% 18% 24%

0 3 6 9 12

Domestic Round‐Trip True Cross‐Border



Research Department


Overview






3. Savings & Wealth




26 September 2017

17

The Italian fund market is retail-oriented

End of 2015 data.

Retail investors

Directdistribution DPM Unit

Linked Institutional

Open-end funds 3rd party funds


26 September 2017

18

347 bn €145 bn €

Financial Advisors

Bank branches

Banks dominate the retail fund distribution landscape (1)

AuM of funds distributed to Italian retail clients (direct investment). End of 2015 data.

Top 5 groups

Top 5 groups

Top 10 groups

Top 10 groups

Total Total


26 September 2017

19

Banks dominate the retail fund distribution landscape (2)

Italian ManGroups

Banks

Financialadvisors


Foreign ManGroups

80 bn € 243 bn €

65 bn € 103 bn €

captive93%

3rdparty80%


26 September 2017

20

‐40

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12010

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12016

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12017

Retail Bank Bonds Domestic and Round‐Trip Funds Foreign Funds

Quarterly flows, €bn. Source: Assogestioni, Bank of Italy.

Banks: no more dependent on funding from retail investors...

20


26 September 2017

21€bn. Source: Assogestioni, bank balance sheets (Top 5 groups). 21

... and urged to sustain profitability through

non interest-based sources of revenues

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q12009

Q2 Q3 Q12010

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12012

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12016

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12017

Q2

Funds flows,captive Man.Cos. (l.) Net interest margin (r.)


26 September 2017

22

Dis

tribu

tors

-O

pen

Arch

itect

ure

leve

l(3

rd p

arty

fund

inci

denc

e)

Banks FAs

(€bn)

Distribution of 3rd party funds: FAs more open than Banks...

42% aver.

28% aver.

End of 2015 data.


26 September 2017

23

The more open the distributor...... the higher the proportion of foreign ManGroups funds

Dis

tribu

tors

-O

pen

Arch

itect

ure

leve

l(3

rd p

arty

fund

inci

denc

e)

(€bn)

End of 2015 data.

Italian ManGroups Foreign ManGroups


26 September 2017

24

Regional breakdown (channels)

End of 2015 data.

Banks

FAs


26 September 2017

25

354 bn €138 bn €

HNWI

Mass-Affluent


Distinction by type of retail investors (1)


26 September 2017

26

Italian ManGroups

57 bn €HNWI

Mass-Affluent

Foreign ManGroups

234 bn €

81 bn €74 bn €

AuM of funds distributed to italian retail clients (direct investment). End of 2015 data.

Distinction by type of retail investor (2)

HNWI Mass-Affluent


26 September 2017

27

Dis

tribu

tors

-O

pen

Arch

itect

ure

leve

l(3

rd p

arty

fund

inci

denc

e)

(€bn)

3rd party funds: private segment more open than Mass Affluent

54%aver.

24% aver.

End of 2015 data.

Mass/A. Private


26 September 2017

28

Regional breakdown (clients)

End of 2015 data.



Research Department


Overview






3. Savings & Wealth




26 September 2017

30

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

0 1 2 3 4

8%

8%

61%

9%

10%

4%

614

0 20 40 60 80 100

OTHER

INSURANCE PRODUCTS(UNIT & INDEX L‐ED)

INSURANCE PRODUCTS(TRADITIONAL)

PENSION PLANS

DISCRETIONARYMANDATES (GPM)

DISCRETIONARYMANDATES (GPF)

30

Net sales as % AuM

€bn


+ ‐x%: Mkt shareDomestic Co.Foreign Co.

Mandates: AuM & Net Sales trends

13%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12%

0 3 6 9 12


26 September 2017

31

n.a.

+26%

+ 6.8

‐31%

+5.5

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

0 1 2 3 4 5

151 ‐ 15%

94%

8%

1%

8%

89%

397 ‐ 39%

2%

3%79%4%

5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

AZIMUT

BANCA ESPERIA

CREDIT SUISSE

BLACKROCK

CREDITO EMILIANO

ANIMA HOLDING

BANCO BPM

BNP PARIBAS

UBI BANCA

AXA

ALLIANZ

POSTE ITALIANE

AMUNDI

FIDEURAM

EURIZON

GENERALI

Top 15 Groups (mandates only)

31

Net sales as % AuMRetail

€bn


Instit. + –x%: Mkt share

n.a.

5.1

+21%

+24%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

0 1 2 3 4


26 September 2017

32

80%

Insurance Mandates & Captive/Affiliated Insurers

Technical Res.Mandates

€bn, December 2016. Source: Assogestioni, balance sheets.

621

Italian insurancemarket (Dec 2016)

Italian Market: 35% 317361

0 30 60 90 120 150

BNPP CARDIF VITABNP PARIBAS

UBI BANCA (JV AVIVA / LOMBARDA VITA)UBI BANCA

BP (JV AVIPOP / POPOLARE VITA)BANCO POPOLARE

CREDIT AGRICOLE VITAAMUNDI

AXA ASS. (Gr.)AXA

ALLIANZ ASS. (Gr.)ALLIANZ

UCB (JV AVIVA / ALLIANZ / CNP)PIONEER INVESTMENTS

POSTE VITAPOSTE ITALIANE

INTESA SANPAOLO VITA (Gr.)EURIZON CAPITAL / FIDEURAM

GENERALI ASSICURAZIONI (Gr.)GENERALI INVESTMENTS

€ bn


26 September 2017

33

Bonds66%

Funds27%

7%

Life Insurance Market: long-term trend

€bn, yearly data. Source: Ania, Ivass.

Dec. 2002

June 2017Dec. 2004Max Unit&Index l.

Dec. 2016


26 September 2017

34

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Top 10 Life Insurance Groups

Premiumsx%: Mkt shareClass III (unit/index)

Technical Reserves (Dec 2016)Flows – 2016 2015

Class I & Other + – Net flows

85%

€ bn

70%

Allianz/Creditras Vita

55%

Intesa Sanpaolo Vita/Fideuram Vita

Generali Ass./Generali Italia/Alleanza Ass./BG Vita

Unipolsai/Popolare Vita/Bim Vita/Arca Vita

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

CATTOLICA

MEDIOLANUM

AXA

BNP PARIBAS

AVIVA

UNIPOLSAI

ALLIANZ

POSTE ITALIANE

INTESA SANPAOLO

GENERALI

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

0 4 8 12 16 20 24


26 September 2017

35

0 2 4 6 8 10

0 2 4 6 8 10

90%

€ bn

71%

Generali Ass./Generali Italia/Alleanza/BG Vita

54%

Allianz/Creditras Vita

Intesa Sanpaolo Vita/Fideuram Vita

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

AXA

UNIPOLSAI

AVIVA

CNP ASSURANCES

POSTE ITALIANE

OLD MUTUAL

GENERALI

MEDIOLANUM

ALLIANZ

INTESA SANPAOLO

Technical Reserves (Dec 2016) Flows – 2016 2015

x%: Mkt share

Top 10 Unit&Index Linked Groups

Premiums+ – Net flows

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7



Research Department


Overview






3. Savings & Wealth




26 September 2017

37

62%

38%

1,9681,873

1,536

555309

3,944

2,231

14,894

Germany13%

France13%

UK10%

Switzerland4%

Italy2%

Luxembourg26%

Ireland15%

Europe100%

Ucits

AIF

+10%+7%

+6%+5%

+6%+7%

+9%+4%

+6%+5%

‐1%+5%

+7%+3%

+6%+4%

372017Q2 €bn. Source: Efama, AFG, BVI.

Net Assets by fund domicile

Growth rate‘16

’17Q2

42% 41%

93% Spezialf.

36% MM


26 September 2017

38

+21

+41

+40

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

France

+149

+55

+110

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Germany

201220132014

+20 2015

+4 2016

2017

IIIIIIIVI

IIIIIIVIII

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

UK

+298

+151

+9.7

+99

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Luxembourg

+507

+721

+455

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Europe

2016

20122013

+27

2014

+8

+8

2015

‐14%

‐2017%

IIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVIII

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Italy

Net sales by fund domicile

Net sales as a % of AuM. Yearly data in €bn. Source: Efama, BVI.


26 September 2017

39Index values. Source: Efama.

Net Assets by fund domicile – Long-term growth

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q2

Ireland

Luxembourg

UK

France

Germany

Italy


26 September 2017

40

60%

36%

38%

3,944

2,231

14,894

1,119

62%

2,588

2,206

2,891

628

Germany24%

France15%

UK47%

Switzerland50%

Italy51%

Luxembourg Ireland Europe

Domestic Funds ‐ Ucits

Domestic Funds ‐ AIF

Luxembourg Funds

Irish Funds

Growth rate‘16’17 Q2

+4%

+4%

+4%+7%

+5%+7%

+7%+4%

Net Assets by fund group domicile

2017Q2. €bn. Foreign (Round-trip) share in %. Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI & IFIA data.Exp > 90%

Exp 10%

+8%+4%

+10%+7%

+6%+5%

+6%+7%


26 September 2017

41

Net sales: fund domicile vs. fund group domicile

Net sales as a % of AuM. Fund domicile (blue), fund group domicile (black). Est. on Efama, Assogestioni, ALFI, IFIA & BVI data.

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Germany

201220132014

2015

2016

2017

IIIIIIIV

III

IIIIV

III

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

UK‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Luxembourg‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Europe

201220132014

2015

2016

+15%+14%

IIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVIII 2017

‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

Italy‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%

France



Research Department


Overview






3. Savings & Wealth




26 September 2017

43

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Q1

EU avg Italy Germany France UK

Household saving rates in Europe

Gross household saving rates. Source: Eurostat.


26 September 2017

44

Total Issued by banks Total Listed

Italy € bn % % % % % % %1995 1,809 38.0% 22.5% 1.9% 19.2% 2.8% 5.8% 9.3%2000 3,058 22.8% 16.5% 6.3% 29.3% 5.4% 16.9% 10.5%2005 3,898 23.4% 18.9% 7.0% 28.0% 2.4% 10.9% 14.8%2010 3,695 30.4% 19.6% 10.0% 19.8% 1.9% 7.8% 18.1%2014 4,038 30.9% 12.7% 6.1% 22.9% 1.6% 9.7% 19.8%2016 4,168 31.9% 8.7% 3.3% 22.0% 1.3% 11.5% 21.9%

2017 Q1 4,199 31.6% 8.4% 2.9% 21.8% 1.3% 12.0% 22.6%

2017 Q1France 5,193 28.0% 1.2% n.a. 21.1% 4.7% 5.5% 36.8%Germany 5,853 39.0% 2.7% n.a. 10.8% 5.5% 10.4% 30.7%UK 7,756 23.8% 1.7% n.a. 8.4% 2.6% 2.0% 60.3%USA 72,131 13.4% 5.6% n.a. 35.8% n.a. 11.0% 32.5%

Total Asset Currency & deposits

Investment funds

Pension funds & life pr

Bonds Stocks

Household financial portfolio breakdown

High level of directinvestment (~ 30%)

Decreasingamounts of bankissued bonds (3.3%)

Negligible level oflisted shares. High level of unlistedones.

Funds: rise until1999 (18%) thendown, then againup.

Pensions/life product: up but stilltoo modest.

44%. Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank.


26 September 2017

45

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Q1

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Q1

Managed products in household portfolios

too low?

Italy France Germany United Kingdom USA

Investment funds Pension funds & life products

abnormallyhigh?

45Source: Eurostat, OECD, BCE, Deutsche Bundesbank.


26 September 2017

46

Private pension plans at a glance (2nd & 3rd pillar)

Source: Covip, Istat, RGS.

2008

(,000)

Member breakdown 7,787 21.0%

Employees 5,788 21.7%

Self‐employed 1,999 19.0%

(,000) % '16 ∆ % '08 ∆ % (€ m) % GDP

Vehicle breakdown 7,787 100% +8% +60% 151,278 9.0%

Contractual p.f. 2,597 33% +7% +27% 45,931

Open p.f. 1,259 16% +19% +58% 17,092

Ind. Insurance Plans (PIP) 3,281 42% +8% +138% 30,642

Ante 1993 p.f. ('pre‐existing') 654 8% +1% ‐5% 57,538

Membership rate

22,757 34.2%

17,310 33.4%

5,447 36.7%

2016

Working pop. (est.)Membership

rate

2016 Members Assets

The Italian Asset Management marketkey figures

26 September 2017

Research Department

the italian asset management market - assogestioni143,12186/2017-09-26-the...key figures 26...

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