the industry dashboard ytd 2011 sv dec 2011 (pp presentation)

1 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TowardsMaking sense of the Building-, Construction- and Property-Industry:

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: YTD 2011Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

December 2011

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THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

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Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

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2

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DECEMBER 2011: BPP AND BC (OCT), CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES (NOV).

Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) ended 2010 at -7,75% compared to 2009

Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded a decrease of -5,04% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y declines of -3,34% in February, -2,85% in March, -1,91% in April, -2,11% in May, +0,04% in June and +0,07% in July and + 0,69% in August, +2,08% in September, +2,95% in October and + 3,58% in November - thus a gradually improving trend.

The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows marginal growth of + 3,34% for 2011 vs 2010.

Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) ended 2010 at +7,20% compared to 2009.

Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 recorded a massive increase of 34,58% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y growths of 19,62% in February, 17,38% in March, 12,86% in April, 12,56% in May, 15,57% in June, 15,78% in July, 14,61% in August, +17,48% in September, +15,67% in October and + 14,10% in November.

It does appear as if Lumber Sales is continuing to "buck the trend" which may be the "green shoots" the building industry is looking for.

The MAT Forecast for Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) shows strong growth of + 13,22% for 2011 vs 2010.

. Total Building Plans Passed (m2) ended 2010 at -11,65% compared to 2009.

Cumulative Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Oct 2011 decreased by -2,25% compared with Oct 2010.

• A decrease was reported for Additions and Alterations BPP (- 16,07%), whilst

• BPP for Residential Buildings increased by + 2,60%.

• The increase reported for non residential buildings BPP was + 11,19%. Longer term trends in the non-residential sector still reflect falling demand levels.

The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (in m2) shows marginal growth of + 2,23%, Non Residential BPP shows growth of + 9,48%, Additions and Alterations BPP shows decline of – 13,69% and Total BPP shows decline of – 1,92% for 2011 vs 2010.

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2009 & 2011

3

Total Buildings Completed (m2) ended 2010 at -27,87% compared to 2009.

Cumulative Y/Y buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Oct 2011 decreased by – 7,92% compared with Oct 2010.

• The largest percentage decrease in the value of buildings reported as completed (BC) was reported for Non residential BC (- 22,41%), whilst

• Residential buildings recorded a decline (- 1,85%) and

• Additions and Alterations decreased (- 5,12%).

After these first 10 months results it is still our view that the decline in Residential Investment should decrease month on month from now on and in spite of the expected decline in Non Residential activity (about half that of Residential Building) will contribute to the positive growth in Total Investment in Building from the third quarter of 2011.

The MAT Forecast for Residential BC shows marginal decline of – 1,51%, Non Residential BC shows DECLINE of – 19,56%, Additions and Alterations BC shows a DECLINE of -4,34% and Total BC shows DECLINE of – 6,62% for 2011 vs 2010.

From the foregoing comparisons it can be seen that ALL the indicators indicate a turning point and MAT Forecasts indicating gradual growth (less negative).

It still remains to be seen whether the gradual improvement in BPP and BC from the levels achieved in 2010 will be encouraged by the increasing willingness of the Banks to relax their stringent lending criteria so that Mortgage Advances can flow into the industry. At this stage it is mainly first time homebuyers in the middle income sector that are benefiting.


4


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Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -13.68% -9.13% 3.09% -0.18% -7.48% -3.69% -5.13% -6.44% -3.23% -2.92% -2.62% -2.41%

Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -27.22% -3.67% -10.82% -9.64% -13.66% -8.22% -17.75% -19.86% -18.45% -16.06% -14.73% -13.80%

Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -17.93% -7.58% -1.42% -3.25% -9.44% -5.12% -9.29% -10.79% -8.11% -7.24% -6.54% -6.06%

Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) -5.04% -3.34% -2.85% -1.91% -2.11% 0.04% -0.02% 0.61% 2.08% 2.95% 3.58% 3.34%

Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 13.93% 13.06%

Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC) % Change by Sector Total: January - Sept 2011(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST


GFCFR521,6 BILLION(22% OF GDP)

BUILDING INV.R108,5* BILLION(20,8% OF GFCF)

CONSTR. INV.R174,9 BILLION(33,5% OF GDFI)

GDPR2663 BILLION

GOVERNMENT BUDGETR798,9 BILLION(30% OF GDP)

TRANSFER DUTYR8- R9 BILLION PA

FTHB SUBSIDIES(1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION)

(500 000 HOUSING UNITS)INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING

(R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020)

RESIDENTIAL AND NON RES BPP AND

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC)

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY MARKET

R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE ADVANCES PA

R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S

LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR MARKET CAPITALISATION

> R100 BILLION

ANNUAL HOUSINGNEED

(POP. GROWTH ONLY)250 000

INTEGRATED HOUSING

EMPLOYMENTIN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION

> 1 000 000 PEOPLE

* When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF

PROPERTY OWNERSHIPENGINE FOR GROWTH

AND WEALTH CREATIONR4,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY

R1,7 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY(Land included)

URBAN HOUSINGBACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION

UNITS IN 2010

GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND (R846 BILLION 2010-2020)

THE ROLE OF BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY IN THE ECONOMY: 2010www.strategicforum.co.za



GFCFR521,6 BILLION(22% OF GDP)

BUILDING INV.R108,5* BILLION(20,8% OF GFCF)

CONSTR. INV.R174,9 BILLION(33,5% OF GDFI)

GDPR2663 BILLION

GOVERNMENT BUDGETR798,9 BILLION(30% OF GDP)

TRANSFER DUTYR8- R9 BILLION PA

FTHB SUBSIDIES(1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION)

(500 000 HOUSING UNITS)INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING

(R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020)

RESIDENTIAL AND NON RES BPP AND

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC)

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY MARKET

R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE ADVANCES PA

R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S

LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR MARKET CAPITALISATION

> R100 BILLION

ANNUAL HOUSINGNEED

(POP. GROWTH ONLY)250 000

INTEGRATED HOUSING

EMPLOYMENTIN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION

> 1 000 000 PEOPLE

* When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF

PROPERTY OWNERSHIPENGINE FOR GROWTH

AND WEALTH CREATIONR3,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY

R1,3 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY

URBAN HOUSINGBACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION

UNITS IN 2010

GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND (R846 BILLION 2010-2020)

THE ROLE OF BUILDING, CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY IN THE ECONOMY: 2010www.strategicforum.co.za

It is estimated that for every R1 spent on infrastructure, R1.40 is added to a country’s gross domestic product. PPP’s are the ideal vehicle for funding the gaps in infrastructure in Africa. (Deloittes research, May 2011)

“Unless the Housing Market recovers, the Economy will not recover.” (Warren Buffet, CNN, 4 October 2011)

The UK Government plan to promote building. “It clearly has recognised the need to boost house building, both to address the housing crisis and to create jobs.” (Business Day, 22 November 2011)


7 © BMI-BRSCU

Total Mortgage Loans and Readvances by application: 1979-2010 (Current Values) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

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1979

1980

1981

1982

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1991

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R M

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nt

Va

lue)

-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%

Gol

d bo

om

SA

SO

L II

SA

SO

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Rub

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Deb

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Defining Events

Y/Y

Per

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R233 Billion taken out of the system

in two years!

© BMI-BRSCU

The deleveraging by the Banks and the loss of consumer spending power could only mean lost growth: mortgage repossessions, business failures, and personal bankruptcies . . .

TOTAL MORTGAGE LOANS & RE-ADVANCES: 1979-2010www.strategicforum.co.za



NEW MORTGAGE LOANS & RE-ADVANCES: TOTALwww.strategicforum.co.za

Y/Y Cum Actual Total gross new Mortgage Loans and Readvances:Cum YTD June 2011 vs 2010 and 2007 by month

(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

R M

illi

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Cu

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Va

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)

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-6%

-5%

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0%

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% C

han

ge

Y/Y

Cu

m A

ctu

al 2

011

vs 2

010

Y/Y Cum Actual 2007 30,111 71,925 116,91 153,36 199,88 233,82 270,62 307,38 339,29 376,89 413,16 441,41

Y/Y Cum Actual 2011 15,036 36,268 59,631 78,368 97,547 119,63 142,33 164,40 189,39 214,33 239,16 260,26

Y/Y CUM Actual 2010 14,454 35,182 60,337 81,776 104,52 126,80 149,49 171,56 196,55 221,49 246,32 267,42

% Change Y/Y Cum Actual 2011 vs 2010 4.03% 3.09% -1.17% -4.17% -6.67% -5.65% -4.79% -4.17% -3.64% -3.23% -2.91% -2.68%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MAT FORECAST



BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT

R334 221 MILLION BUILDING INVESTMENT

R159 277 MILLIONCONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT

R174 944 MILL

CONTRACTOR (50,8%)

R67 914 MIOCONTRACTOR (50,8%)

R67 914 MIO

SUBCONTRACTOR (49,2%)

R65 775 MIOSUBCONTRACTOR (49,2%)

R65 775 MIO

LABOUR (40%)

R133 688 MIO

LABOUR (40%)

R133 688 MIO

DIRECT TO USER (40%)

R80 213 MILLIONDIRECT TO USER (40%)

R80 213 MILLIONMATERIAL (60%)

R200 533 MIOMATERIAL (60%)

R200 533 MIO

INDIRECT VIA DISTRIBUTION (60%)

R120 320 MILLION

INDIRECT VIA DISTRIBUTION (60%)

R120 320 MILLION

LARGE IND BUILDERS MERCHANT (10%)

R20 053 MILLION

LARGE CHAIN BLDRS MERCHANT(25%)

R50 133 MILLION

LARGE CHAIN BLDRS MERCHANT(25%)

R50 133 MILLION

HYPERMARKET/SUPERMARKET(5%)

R10 027 MILLION

HYPERMARKET/SUPERMARKET(5%)

R10 027 MILLION

SPECIALIST SHOP(5%)

R10 027 MILLION

SPECIALIST SHOP(5%)

R10 027 MILLION

LOCAL HARDWARE STORE(15%)

R30 080 MILLION

LOCAL HARDWARE STORE(15%)

R30 080 MILLION

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R12 775 MILLION

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R64 488 MILLION

UNRECORDEDADDITIONS AND ALT’S INVEST**

R35 106 MILLION

* 2010 Prices** Residential and Non Residential

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R59 682 MILLION

CURRENT REALITY OF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2010*

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING & CONSTR: 2010

10

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GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE YTD Q ON Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) % CHANGE

(Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

CUM YTD Q3 2011 VS 2010 = - 3,46%

CUM Q4 2010 VS 2009 = R40 811 MIO VS R45 321 MIO = - 9,95%ON TOP OF DECLINE OF - 4,99% IN 2009 VS 2008

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011www.strategicforum.co.za



GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011www.strategicforum.co.za

CumGFCF Q1

CumGFCF Q2

CumGFCF Q3

CumGFCF Q4

CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2010 10 283 20 685 30 912 40 811

CUM GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2011 9 388 19 425 29 842 39 741

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2011 VS 2010 -8.70% -6.09% -3.46% -2.62%

-10.00%

-9.00%

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

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CUM Q/Q GFCF RESIDENTIAL 2011 VS 2010 (*Q3)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST


12

19

93

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93

/03

19

94

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19

94

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19

95

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99

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00

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05

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06

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20

06

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20

07

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20

07

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20

08

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20

08

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20

09

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20

09

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20

10

/'01

20

10

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GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2010: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE YTD Q TO Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) PERCENTAGE CHANGE


R M

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Defining Events

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M Y

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Q/Q

% C

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E

YTD Q3 2010 VS Q3 2009 = + 6,3%

2009 VS 2008 = R60 880 BIO VS R57 160 Bio = + 6,51%ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 31,93% IN 2008 VS 2007


GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011www.strategicforum.co.za



GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011www.strategicforum.co.za

2011/'01 2011/'02 2011/'03 2011/'04

CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2010 14 935 29 646 44 028 58 747

CUM GFCF NON RES BUILDING 2011 15 151 30 416 45 509 60 228

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2011 VS 2010 1.45% 2.60% 3.36% 2.52%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

0

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CUM Q/Q GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 2011 VS 2010 (*Q3)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST


14

De

moc

ratic

Ele

ctio

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Tra

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on

to D

emoc

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up

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

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25%

30%

35%

0

5 000

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1993

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Defining events

Cu

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Axis Title

GFCF Total Building by Quarter: Q1 1993 - Q3 2011: Current ValuesCumulative YTD Q/Q (Previous Year) % Change


CUM YTD Q3 2011 VS 2010 = + 1,14%

2010 VS 2009 = R105 290 MIO VS R106 201 MIO = - 0,85%ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 1,28% IN 2009 VS 2008


GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011www.strategicforum.co.za



GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q3 2011www.strategicforum.co.za

CumGFCF Q1

CumGFCF Q2

CumGFCF Q3

CumGFCF Q4

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2010 25 218 50 331 74 940 99 558

CUM GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2011 24 539 49 841 75 351 99 969

CUM Q/Q % CHANGE 2011 VS 2010 -2.69% -0.97% 0.55% 0.41%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

0

20 000

40 000

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80 000

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120 000

Cu

m Q

/Q P

erc

en

tag

e C

ha

ng

e

R M

illio

ns

CUM Q/Q GFCF TOTAL BUILDING 2011 VS 2010 (*Q3)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST



TREND IN TOTAL ACTIVITY: BPP AND BC: 1993-2011 (OCT)www.strategicforum.co.za

-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Cum Y/Y % Ch: BPP and BC: Total Building (Incl A&A): 1993-2011: R*1000 (Current Values) (Oct) (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 15(2))

% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH

12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)


17

-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Cum Y/Y % Ch: BPP and BC: Total Building (Incl A&A): 1993-2011: R*1000 (Current Values) (Oct) (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 15(2))

% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH

12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)


Total BC turned at about – 21% and move to positive growth by third quarter 2011 . . .

CUM YTD % CHANGE: TOTAL BPP & BC: 1994-2011 (OCT)www.strategicforum.co.za

Total BPP has turned at -35% and has breached zero in first quarter 2011 . . .


18

-1 000 000

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Total Building: BC: 1993-2011: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: R*1000 (Current Values) (Oct)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 16)

Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC) Total Building BC 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)


NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE: 1993-2011 (OCT)www.strategicforum.co.za

Total BC Trend-break occurred in mid 2006.

Recovery is on the way.



RES & NR TOTAL BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VS 2010 (OCT): R MIOwww.strategicforum.co.za


Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2011: R*Mio 2 311 880 5 592 182 9 901 043 13 234 92716 913 22320 891 28824 378 79327 411 81431 193 15935 377 52739 570 70643 051 164

Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2010: R*Mio 2 581 377 5 608 302 9 246 066 12 634 09117 614 54920 863 65225 638 99629 341 40732 305 37836 174 58640 367 76543 848 223

Res & NR Total: Cum Actual 2011 vs 2010 -10.44% -0.29% 7.08% 4.76% -3.98% 0.13% -4.92% -6.58% -3.44% -2.20% -1.97% -1.82%

-11%

-10%

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

5 000 000

10 000 000

15 000 000

20 000 000

25 000 000

30 000 000

35 000 000

40 000 000

45 000 000

50 000 000

R*1

000

RES & NON RES TOTAL (INCL A&A): BC: CUM ACTUAL 2011 VERSUS 2010 BY MONTH: TOTAL RSA (OCT 2011)(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST

Per

cen

tag

e D

iffe

ren

ce:

Cu

m A

ctu

al 2

011

vs 2

010



% DIFFERENCE IN CUM Y/Y BC : ACTUAL 2011 VS 2010: OCTwww.strategicforum.co.za

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

No

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

m2

R'0

00

R'0

00

R'0

00

Dwellings <80m2

Dwellings >80m2

Flats and TH Other Total Office &Banking

Shopping Ind&WH Other Total A&ADwellings

A&A Other A&ATotalTotal

% Difference in Cumulative Y/Y BC: Cum Actual Oct 2011 vs 2010 by Segment: Total RSA(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)



CURRENT REALITY OF INVESTMENT IN BUILDINGBY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2010

0

1 049

3 714

1 333

215

2 971

9 092

954

8

19 334

1 358

1 714

3 075

712

2 725

2 866

1 053

13 503

6 246

3 846

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL

Dwelling-houses < 80 m2

Dwelling-houses > 80 m2

Townhouses & Flats

Other (Incl. hotels & casinos)

Additions & alterations

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

Affordable Housing

Public authorities.

Public corporations

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL

Offices

Shops

Industrial & warehouse

Other

Additions & Alterations

PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL

Public Authorities

Public Corporations

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL

Unrecorded Res Adds and Alts

Unrecorded Non Res Adds and Alts

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND BY SEGMENT: 2010: M2*1000(TOTAL = 42 929 Million m2)

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

TOTAL = 42 929 Million m2


CURRENT REALITY OF MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT: 2009

The market for major Building Product Groups by value: 2009 (Source: BMI-BRSCU)

4.40%

1.26%

7.28%

1.35%

1.36%

6.27%

12.84%

6.43%

13.42%

3.01%

2.61%

1.56%

10.16%

1.90%

1.98%

1.17%

0.33%

2.85%

2.95%

0.87%

0.25%

6.46%

8.27%

1.01%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Roofing and Vertical Cladding

Ceilings and Partitioning

Walling

Paving

Wall Tiles

Flooring

Cement

Aggregate and Sand

Reinforcing Steel and Sections

Sanware

Taps, Mixers and Fittings

Plumbing Pipes and Fittings

Pipes and Fittings

Geysers

Glass and Mirrors

Doors

Garage Doors

Frames

Roof Trusses

Windowsills, Fasciaboards and Bargeboards

Rainwater Goods

Decorative Paint

Flatboard (PB, MDF, Other)**

Insulation

Total value of major Building Product Groups = R103,4 Billion in 2009.

Major Building Product Groups account for 52,32% of Total Building and

Construction Materials and 31,4% of Total Investment in Building and Construction.


THE LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER MARKET: 2001 – 2010 (NOV)

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

Jan

01

Ma

y 01

Sep

01

Jan

02

Ma

y 02

Sep

02

Jan

03

Ma

y 03

Sep

03

Jan

04

Ma

y 04

Sep

04

Jan

05

Ma

y 05

Sep

05

Jan

06

Ma

y 06

Sep

06

Jan

07

Ma

y 07

Sep

07

Jan

08

Ma

y 08

Sep

08

Jan

09

Ma

y 09

Sep

09

Jan

10

Ma

y 10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Ma

y 11

Sep

11

Cu

bic

Met

res

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: January 2001 - November 2011 (m3)(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Local Building 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Local Building)


LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES VS TOTAL BC: 2002 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan

02

Apr

02

Jul 0

2

Oct

02

Jan

03

Apr

03

Jul 0

3

Oct

03

Jan

04

Apr

04

Jul 0

4

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) vs Total BC (m2): January 2002 - Nov 2011(Source: StatsSA; Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BC (m2)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BC (m2))


LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES VS TOTAL BPP: 2002 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan

02

Apr

02

Jul 0

2

Oct

02

Jan

03

Apr

03

Jul 0

3

Oct

03

Jan

04

Apr

04

Jul 0

4

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) vs Total BPP (m2) : January 2002 - November 2011(Source: Crickmay Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BPP (m2)

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Local Building Lumber Sales) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total BPP (m2))

Local Building Lumber Sales appear to be more closely correlated to Total BPP than to BC and also leads the revival?

26 © BMI-BRSCU

LOCAL BUILDING LUMBER SALES: CUM Y/Y 2011 VS 2010(NOVEMBER)


2010 Cum Y/Y Local Building 62 111 145 627 226 328 306 350 389 026 464 887 542 714 636 696 712 769 807 356 908 249 968 525

2011 Cum Y/Y Local Building 83 590 174 204 265 674 345 749 437 896 537 281 628 339 729 731 837 356 933 839 1 036 3 1 096 6

% Change Cum Y/Y Local Building: 2011 vs 2010 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 14.10% 13.22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000C

ub

ic M

etre

s

Lumber Sales by End-use: Local Building: Cum Y/Y November 2011 vs 2010(Source: Crickmay & Associates, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST

% C

han

ge

Cu

m Y

/Y L

oca

l Bu

ild

ing

: 20

11 v

s 2

010

27

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Gau

tra

in

Esk

om

Infr

ast

ruct

ure

Soc

cer

Wo

rld C

up

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

1993

/01

1993

/02

1993

/03

1993

/04

1994

/01

1994

/02

1994

/03

1994

/04

1995

/01

1995

/02

1995

/03

1995

/04

1996

/01

1996

/02

1996

/03

1996

/04

1997

/01

1997

/02

1997

/03

1997

/04

1998

/01

1998

/02

1998

/03

1998

/04

1999

/01

1999

/02

1999

/03

1999

/04

2000

/01

2000

/02

2000

/03

2000

/04

2001

/01

2001

/02

2001

/03

2001

/04

2002

/01

2002

/02

2002

/03

2002

/04

2003

/01

2003

/02

2003

/03

2003

/04

2004

/01

2004

/02

2004

/03

2004

/04

2005

/01

2005

/02

2005

/03

2005

/04

2006

/01

2006

/02

2006

/03

2006

/04

2007

/01

2007

/02

2007

/03

2007

/04

2008

/01

2008

/02

2008

/03

2008

/04

2009

/01

2009

/02

2009

/03

2009

/04

2010

/'01

2010

/'02

2010

/'03

2010

/'04

2011

/'01

2011

/'02

2011

/'03

2011

/'04

CU

M Q

/Q (

PR

EV

IOU

S Y

EA

R)

% C

HA

NG

E

Defining Events

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CU

RR

EN

T V

AL

UE

S)

GFCF CONSTRUCTION WORKS Q1 1993-Q3 2011: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE Q ON Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) PERCENTAGE CHANGE(Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Gross fixed capital formation: Construction works - Total (Investment) Cum Q on Q (Previous Year) % Change

CUM YTD Q3 2011 VS 2010 = + 4,21%

2010 VS 2009 = R166 267 MIO VS R165 516 MIO = + 0,45%ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 30,18% IN 2009 VS 2008


GFCF CONSTRUCTION: Q1 1993-Q3 2011 (SEPTEMBER)www.strategicforum.co.za



GFCF CONSTRUCTION: CUM Q/Q 2011 VS 2010 (Q3)www.strategicforum.co.za

Cum GFCFQ1

Cum GFCFQ2

Cum GFCFQ3

Cum GFCFQ4

Cum GFCF Construction 2010 42 330 83 479 124 374 166 267

Cum GFCF Construction 2011 43 109 85 552 129 613 171 506

Cum Q/Q % Change 2011 vs 2010 1.84% 2.48% 4.21% 3.15%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

200 000

Cu

m Q

/Q %

Ch

ang

e

R M

illi

on

(C

urr

en

t P

ric

es

)

CUM Q/Q GFCF CONSTRUCTION: 2011 VS 2010 (Q3)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST


29 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: 1997 – MAT* 2011 (* NOVEMBER)

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

9 000 000

10 000 000

11 000 000

12 000 000

13 000 000

14 000 000

15 000 000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ton

ne

s

Annual Domestic Cement Sales: 1997 - MAT* 2011 (* Nov)(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

30 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY MONTH: 1997 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

1 100 000

1 200 000

1 300 000

1 400 000

1 500 000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ton

ne

s

Domestic Cement Sales by Month: 1998-2011 (Nov)(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Domestic Cement Sales by month 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Domestic Cement Sales by month)

31 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES vs BPP: CUM Y/Y % CHANGE BY MONTH: 1999 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Cumulative Y/Y percentage change by month:Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) vs BPP (M2): Jan 1999 - Nov 2011

(Source: StatsSA; Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes))

Cum Y/Y % Change Total BPP (m2)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change Total BPP (m2))

32 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES vs BC: CUM Y/Y % CHANGE BY MONTH: 1999 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Cumulative Y/Y percentage change by month:Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) vs BC (M2): Jan 1999 - Nov 2011

(Source: StatsSA; Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes))

Cum Y/Y % Change Total BC (m2)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change Total BC (m2))

Local Cement Sales appear to be more closely correlated to Total BPP than to BC and also leads the revival in BC?Related to Merchant anticipation of revival and stock build-up in anticipation?

33 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALESCUM Y/Y COMPARISON BY MONTH: 2011 VS 2010 AND 2009 (NOV)


Cum YTD sales: 2010

672676 1513264 2544081 3351901 4291219 5195076 6171117 7141120 8121192 9077975 10123882 10870396

Cum YTD sales 2011 & MAT Forecast

638749 1462683 2471585 3287922 4200506 5197006 6170010 7184949 8289826 9345495 10486743 11233257

% Change Cum YTD 2011 VS 2010

-0.050435871058280

6

-0.033425099652142

7

-0.028495948045679

3

-0.019087377580662

5

-0.021139214754595

3

0.000371505633411

262

-0.000179384056403

276

0.006137552652805

13

0.020764685775191

5

0.029469127200724

8

0.035842081130538

7

0.033380660649345

4

1,000,000

3,000,000

5,000,000

7,000,000

9,000,000

11,000,000

-3%

2%

Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative YTD November 2011 vs 2010 and 2009(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

To

nn

es

MAT FORECAST

Cu

mu

litiv

e %

C

ha

ng

e: Y

TD

2

01

1 v

s 2

01

0

34 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING & CONSTR: 2009-2011

BMI Est % Change BMI Est % Change BMI Est Q2 REV % Change GFCFPRIVATE RESIDENTIAL GFCF* BC** (BPP+BC)/2*** 2009 2010 GFCF* BC** (BPP+BC)/2*** 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 Q2 2011 Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 2 271 1 107 2 271 -19.19% 1 835 918 1 835 10.90% 2 035 2 224 21.17% Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 14 614 7 307 14 614 -15.67% 12 323 6 162 12 323 2.90% 12 680 13 186 7.00% Townhouses & Flats 8 499 4 250 8 499 -33.58% 5 646 2 823 5 646 -9.65% 5 101 5 145 -8.86% Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 1 003 501 1 003 20.56% 1 209 604 1 209 -24.50% 913 921 -23.82% Additions & alterations 8 419 13 618 8 419 -12.20% 7 392 3 696 7 392 5.22% 7 778 7 740 4.70%TOTAL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL 34 806 34 806 26 783 34 806 -18.39% 28 405 28 405 14 203 28 405 0.36% 28 507 29 216 2.85%PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL - Affordable Housing 13 222 41.74% 18 742 10.00% 20 616 19 210 2.50% Public authorities. 5 213 5 213 -21.39% 4 098 4 098 5.00% 4 303 2 869 -30.00% Public corporations 10 10 250.00% 35 35 10.00% 39 33 -5.00% Private Business Enterprises 5 620 5 620 104.19% 11 476 11 476 5.00% 12 049 7 623 -33.57%TOTAL PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL 24 065 42.74% 15 609 34 350 7.73% 37 007 29 735 -13.44%TOTAL RESIDENTIAL (Incl AH) 58 871 6.60% 44 014 62 756 4.39% 65 514 58 951 -6.06%TOTAL GFCF RES (Excludes AH) 45 649 44 014 44 014 44 898 39 741 -9.71% 39 741

PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 4 863 3 884 4 863 -25.50% 3 623 3 235 3 623 -25.00% 2 717 2 969 -18.05% Shops 5 725 6 114 5 725 -41.62% 3 342 3 400 3 342 -5.00% 3 175 3 168 -5.21% Industrial & warehouse 4 638 5 580 4 638 -20.52% 3 686 4 386 3 686 -3.00% 3 575 2 711 -26.46% Other 859 1 340 859 7.73% 926 1 216 926 -5.00% 879 1 297 40.10% Additions & Alterations 4 285 6 026 4 285 -9.79% 3 866 5 966 3 866 -20.00% 3 093 3 691 -4.53%TOTAL PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL 20 371 20 371 22 944 20 371 -24.19% 15 443 15 443 18 202 15 443 -12.97% 13 440 13 835 -10.41%PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL Public Authorities 15 239 15 239 55.00% 12 806 12 806 5.00% 13 446 12 113 -5.41% Public Corporations 4 344 4 344 25.83% 4 707 4 707 10.00% 5 178 4 452 -5.41% Private Business Enterprises 20 926 20 926 31 532 31 532 -15.00% 26 802 29 827 -5.41%TOTAL PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL 40 509 40 509 21.07% 49 045 49 045 -7.38% 45 426 46 392 -5.41%TOTAL GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL 60 880 60 880 5.93% 64 488 64 488 -8.72% 58 866 60 228 -6.61% 60 228TOTAL GFCF RES AND NON RES 106 529 108 502 108 502 103 764 99 969 -7.86% 99 969 Unrecorded Res Additions and Alterations 24 090 1.47% 24 445 5.00% 25 668 24 445 4.70% Unrecorded Non Res Additions and Alterations 10 823 39.09% 15 054 -10.00% 13 549 15 054 -4.53%TOTAL UNRECORDED ADD'S & ALT'S 34 913 13.14% 39 500 -0.72% 39 216 39 500 0.00%TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING 154 664 7.81% 166 743 -1.89% 163 596 158 678 -4.84%BPP & BC as % of Total Investment in Building 35.67% 26.30% 25.64% 27.13%Private Sector as % of Total Investment in Building 58.25% 49.99% 49.61% 52.02%CONSTRUCTION Public Authorities 55 323 55 323 -0.31% 55 153 55 153 -10.00% 49 638 54 069 -1.97% Public Corporations 86 683 86 683 8.95% 94 442 94 442 -12.50% 82 637 92 586 -1.97% Private Business Enterprises 24 475 24 475 3.57% 25 349 25 349 -15.00% 21 547 24 851 -1.97%TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION 166 481 166 481 5.08% 174 944 174 944 -12.07% 153 821 171 506 -1.97% 171 506TOTAL INV IN BLDNG AND CONSTR 273 010 321 145 6.40% 283 446 341 687 -7.10% 317 418 330 184 -3.37%TOTAL GFCF CONSTRUCTION 166 481 166 481 174 944TOTAL GFCF BLDNG AND CONSTR 273 010 321 145 341 687* Res GFCF excludes Affordable Housing* Non Res GFCF includes Public Sector ** Stats SA*** StatsSA and BMI-BRSCU WorkingsSource: BMI-BRSCU

SHORTTERM OUTLOOK FOR THE BUILDING & CONSTR INDUSTRY: 2011: R*MILLION (CURRENT VALUE)SARB & StatsSA 2009 SARB & StatsSA 2010

35

MFA COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR (CLIBI)FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN BUILDING INDUSTRY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

| 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 86 | 89 | 92 | 95 | 98 | 01 | 04 | 07 | 10 | 13

Source: FNB / BER; SARB; MFA DATABASE

PE

SS

IMIS

M <

50

> O

PT

IMIS

M

OPTIMISM

PESSIMISM

Shaded areas represent the upswing phase of the business cycle

© BMI-BRSCU

The MFA Composite Leading Indicator for the South African Building Industry (CLIBI) recorded a peak of 69 in late 2004. The index dropped to 26 in 2009, reflecting a lower turning point. This building indicator rose to 32 in the first quarter of 2010. However, it dropped slightly to 31 during the last three quarters of 2010. It has continued at a level of 31 for the sixth consecutive quarter. This is the first time that this key indicator has moved sideways for more than a year. In a nutshell, this finding is a reflection of continuing poor business conditions in the South African building industry.

ANIMAL SPIRITS AND CONFIDENCEwww.strategicforum.co.za

?


36

Total Mortgage Advances: 2002 - 2010The Strategic Forum Scenarios: 2011-2020(Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

2675

04

2599

27

2518

37

2674

81

2888

57

3033

39

3185

37

3265

00

3330

30

3180

44

3085

02

536880

223203

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

s (C

on

stan

t 20

10 V

alu

es)

High Road New York Scenario: 2011-2020Higher Middle Road London Scenario: 2011-2020Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenario: 2011-2020Low Road Harari Scenario: 2011-2020Sao Paolo Scenario:2011-2020

Sao Paolo Scenariois Current

Most likely future Scenario


STRATEGIC RESPONSEwww.strategicforum.co.za

R313 Billion decline in

only 3 years!

Under the High Road it could take a decade to get

back to the 2006 level!


37

AFFORDABLE HOUSING DELIVERY AND BACKLOG: 2002-2010LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ AND HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO: 2011-2020

(Source: StatsSA and BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

AN

NU

AL

HO

US

ING

DE

LIV

ER

Y (

UN

ITS

)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

AN

NU

AL

HO

US

ING

BA

KL

OG

(U

NIT

S)

DOH Delivery: Lower Middle Road Soyuz Scenario DOH Delivery: High Road Columbus Scenario

Annual Housing Backlog under Columbus Scenario Annual Housing Backlog under Soyuz Scenario


THE ROLE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN BUILDING: 2011-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

3,12 Million houses built in next 10 years and

Backlog reduced to I million by 2020.

The target remains the eradication of all slums, or informal settlements, by 2014. For this to happen, some 500 000 new units a year must become available, according to the Department of Housing’s Strategic Plan.


38

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2000-2010 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2011-2020


15,000

40,000

65,000

90,000

115,000

140,000

165,000

190,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

2010

VA

LU

ES

)

TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2007: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2008-2015

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO


CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIOBETWEEN SOYUZ AND CHALLENGER


SCENARIOS FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: 2011-2020www.strategicforum.co.za


39

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2000-2010 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2011-2020


15,000

40,000

65,000

90,000

115,000

140,000

165,000

190,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

2010

VA

LU

ES

)

TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2007: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2008-2015


TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO


CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIOBETWEEN SOYUZ AND CHALLENGER


SCENARIOS FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: 2011-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

The difference between “high road” and “lower middle road” could be R139 Billion and 300 000 jobs over the 10 years to 2020.



TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION BY SEGMENT: 2002-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2001-2010THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2011-2020


25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

2010

VA

LU

ES

)

MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 HIGHWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015

BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015 Peak 1980 Level

The currentMOST LIKELY FUTURE

is theFREEWAY SCENARIO



41

2011-2020 Average PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL R*Million R*Million % % Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 29,472 2,947 1.69% 0.94% Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 176,887 17,689 10.12% 5.67% Townhouses & Flats 102,292 10,229 5.85% 3.28% Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 8,420 842 0.48% 0.27% Additions & alterations 109,727 10,973 6.28% 3.52%PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL Affordable Housing 201,003 20,100 11.50% 6.44% Public authorities. 52,901 5,290 3.03% 1.70% Public corporations 309 31 0.02% 0.01%TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 681,011 68,101 38.95% 21.83%PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 89,860 8,986 5.14% 2.88% Shops 103,453 10,345 5.92% 3.32% Industrial & warehouse 138,568 13,857 7.92% 4.44% Other 19,151 1,915 1.10% 0.61% Additions & Alterations 139,014 13,901 7.95% 4.46%PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL Public Authorities 146,557 14,656 8.38% 4.70% Public Corporations 47,401 4,740 2.71% 1.52%TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL 684,005 68,400 39.12% 21.93% Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's 235,437 23,544 13.46% 7.55% Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's 148,133 14,813 8.47% 4.75%GRAND TOTAL 1,748,586 174,859 100.00% 56.06%

CONSTRUCTION Roads Streets, Bridges etc 374,509 37,451 27.33% 12.01% Waterworks 126,766 12,677 9.25% 4.06% Sewerage 57,355 5,736 4.18% 1.84% Other Construction Works 365,032 36,503 26.63% 11.70% Private Sector 446,844 44,684 32.60% 14.33%TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 1,370,507 137,051 100.00% 43.94%TOTAL BLDNG AND CONSTR 3,119,092 311,909 100.00%3 years (2010-2012) 935,7285 years (2010-2014) 1,559,54611 years (2010-2020) 3,431,001

SECTOR AND SEGMENTINVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2011-2020: LMR SOYUZ SCENARIO


TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY SEGMENT: 2011-2020

42 © BMI-BRSCU

CURRENT REALITY: BUILDING & CONSTR: 2009-2011

Sector and Segment 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Total Private Residential -18.39% 2.85% 3.03% 6.01% 9.00% -2.99%Total Public Residential 42.74% -13.44% 2.53% 0.82% -2.45% 0.21%Total Residential 6.60% -6.06% 2.83% 3.96% 4.62% -1.85%Total Private Non-Residential -24.19% -10.41% -11.02% 2.99% 5.99% 14.99%Total Public Non-Residential 21.07% -5.41% 0.00% 12.26% 7.02% 2.31%Total Non Residential 5.93% -6.61% -8.01% 5.74% 7.02% 10.91%Total Unrecorded Additions & Alterations 13.14% 0.00% -10.57% -5.43% 10.77% 0.33%Total Investment In Building 7.81% -4.84% -0.04% 0.02% 0.07% 0.03%Total Investment In Construction 5.08% -1.97% -5.59% -8.88% 8.44% 7.19%Total Investment In Building and Construction 6.40% -3.37% -4.91% -2.80% 7.49% 4.91%

Year on Year Growth INVESTMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION: 2010-2015 (CONSTANT 2010 VALUES) (REVISED DEC 2011)


TowardsBuilding, the Engine for growth and wealth creation

Dr. Llewellyn B. LewisDecember 2011

THE STRATEGIC FORUM

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

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