the infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (pp presentation)

39
1 © BMI-BRSCU © BMI-BRSCU Towards Making sense of the Building-, Construction- and Property-Industry: THE INFRASTRUCTURE DASHBOARD: YTD 2011 Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis Dr. Llewellyn B. Lewis October 2011 October 2011 THE STRATEGIC FORUM THE STRATEGIC FORUM A place of assembly for strategic conversations THE STRATEGIC FORUM www.strategicforum.co.za BMI S tudium A d P rosperandum V oluntas in C onveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEG Y CO N SU LTIN G U N IT cc R eg.N o.2002/105109/23 BMI S tudium A d P rosperandum V oluntas in C onveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEG Y CO N SU LTIN G U N IT cc BMI BMI BMI BMI S tudium A d P rosperandum V oluntas in C onveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEG Y CO N SU LTIN G U N IT cc R eg.N o.2002/105109/23 BMI S tudium A d P rosperandum V oluntas in C onveniendum BUILDING RESEARCH STRATEG Y CO N SU LTIN G U N IT cc BMI BMI BMI BMI BMI BMI

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Page 1: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

1 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TowardsMaking sense of the Building-, Construction- and Property-Industry: THE INFRASTRUCTURE DASHBOARD: YTD 2011

Dr. Llewellyn B. LewisDr. Llewellyn B. LewisOctober 2011October 2011

THE STRATEGIC FORUMTHE STRATEGIC FORUM

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

BMI

Studium Ad Prosperandum

Voluntas in Conveniendum

BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc

Reg. No. 2002/105109/23

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Studium Ad Prosperandum

Voluntas in Conveniendum

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Page 2: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

2 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

Conditions for High Road ScenarioInvestor Confidence:• High confidence;• Risk taking propensity • GDP growth > 6% pa;• CPI in 3-6% range;• Real Interest Rates < 5%;Investment Climate: • Property a preferred investment;• FTHB Subsidies increased to 2,5-5% of Budget;• The non residential market grows in tandem with residential; • Home improvement and non residential refurbishment markets grow at > 10% pa;• Private Sector Investment as a percentage of Total Investment in Building 50-60%;Property Delivery:• Building growth 2010-2020 at > 6,5% pa;• The R1,5 Trillion Affordable Housing programme successfully implemented;• Backlogs eliminated by 2020;• Construction growth 2108-2020 at > 7,5% pa;• The R846 Billion Government Infrastructure programme is successfully implemented

““Over the next three years government will spend Over the next three years government will spend R846 R846 billion on public infrastructure.billion on public infrastructure.On transport, we will maintain and expand our road On transport, we will maintain and expand our road network.network.We will ensure that our rail network is reliable, competitive We will ensure that our rail network is reliable, competitive and better integrated with our sea ports.and better integrated with our sea ports.” (President Jacob ” (President Jacob Zuma: State of the Nation Address: 2010)Zuma: State of the Nation Address: 2010)

““Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel put the Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel put the total annual expenditure on infrastructure over the next total annual expenditure on infrastructure over the next four years at four years at R250bn a year, translating into R1-trillion for R250bn a year, translating into R1-trillion for the period the period — an 18% increase on the state’s previous — an 18% increase on the state’s previous infrastructure spending estimate of about R846bn for the infrastructure spending estimate of about R846bn for the three years to 2013.three years to 2013.” (Business Day: 16 February 2011)” (Business Day: 16 February 2011)

Page 3: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

3 © BMI-BRSCU

Summarised MBSA Summit Decisions To investigate the establishment of a multi-representative Industry Forum that would meet 2 to 3 times per annum

To promote building as the Engine for Growth, nation building and wealth creation (through home ownership) by way of effective communication with leaders in all the economic sectors

To establish a Task Force to unpack the R846 billion infrastructure budgets and investment for all public sector work, including affordable housing; to determine the impediments to the delivery thereof; to ensure a constant work flow and uphold quality standards, measured against annually assessed programmes, and to explore and prioritise the effective implementation of national infrastructure maintenance strategies.

The formation of an inclusive forum to analyse the 8 000 projects within the Department of Human Settlements.

To maximise employment opportunities by correct retro-fitting of existing buildings; maximise reduction of carbon emissions, and pursue green best practice approaches for engineering services in line with” green building”. (February 2011)

Asking the right questions. Turning known unknowns into known knowns.

First step towards developing a Vision for the Industry?

Towards developing a Co-operative mindset and cross boundary networking for the Industry?

STRATEGIC RESPONSEwww.strategicforum.co.za

Page 4: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

4

The purpose of the Infrastructure Dialogue on the IIMP was to acquaint stakeholders with the key findings of the 2011 IIMP study and the demand for and supply of inputs to the infrastructure sector.

The dialogue was attended by some 50 stakeholders from the public and private sectors. The following inputs were provided as part of the dialogue:

•Keynote address – Infrastructure Inputs Monitoring Project: Dr Zavareh Rustomjee (IIMP) Panelists Perspectives:

Mr Mahesh Fakir, The Presidency: DPME Dr Llewellyn Lewis: BMI

Plenary discussion focusing on key issuesMr Richard Goode: DBSA (Facilitator)

Copies of the resource documents and agenda can be found on the Infrastructure Dialogues website www.infrastructuredialogues.co.za

SEE PRESENTATION BY DR RUSTOMJEE FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING.

Infrastructure Inputs Monitoring Project (IIMP)28 September 2011

THE DBSA INFRASTRUCTURE DIALOGUESwww.infrastructuredialogues.co.za

Page 5: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

5 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCFR521,6 BILLION(22% OF GDP)

BUILDING INV.R108,5* BILLION(20,8% OF GFCF)

CONSTR. INV.R174,9 BILLION(33,5% OF GDFI)

GDPR2663 BILLION

GOVERNMENT BUDGETR798,9 BILLION(30% OF GDP)

TRANSFER DUTYR8- R9 BILLION PA

FTHB SUBSIDIES(1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION)

(500 000 HOUSING UNITS)INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING

(R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020)

RESIDENTIAL AND NON RES BPP AND

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC)

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY MARKET

R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE ADVANCES PA

R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S

LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR MARKET CAPITALISATION

> R100 BILLION

ANNUAL HOUSINGNEED

(POP. GROWTH ONLY)250 000

INTEGRATED HOUSING

EMPLOYMENTIN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION

> 1 000 000 PEOPLE

* When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF

PROPERTY OWNERSHIPENGINE FOR GROWTH

AND WEALTH CREATIONR4,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY

R1,7 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY(Land included)

URBAN HOUSINGBACKLOG > 2,3 MILLION

UNITS IN 2010

GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND (R846 BILLION 2010-2020)

Page 6: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

6 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCFR521,6 BILLION(22% OF GDP)

BUILDING INV.R108,5* BILLION(20,8% OF GFCF)

CONSTR. INV.R174,9 BILLION(33,5% OF GDFI)

GDPR2663 BILLION

GOVERNMENT BUDGETR798,9 BILLION(30% OF GDP)

TRANSFER DUTYR8- R9 BILLION PA

FTHB SUBSIDIES(1,9% OF BUDGET = R13,8 BILLION)

(500 000 HOUSING UNITS)INVESTMENT IN AFFORDABLE HOUSING

(R1,4 TRILLION 2010-2020)

RESIDENTIAL AND NON RES BPP AND

BUILDINGS COMPLETED (BC)

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PROPERTY MARKET

R267 BILLION PA MORTGAGE ADVANCES PA

R1000 BIO MORTGAGES O/S

LISTED PROPERTY SECTOR MARKET CAPITALISATION

> R100 BILLION

ANNUAL HOUSINGNEED

(POP. GROWTH ONLY)250 000

INTEGRATED HOUSING

EMPLOYMENTIN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION

> 1 000 000 PEOPLE

* When the UNRECORDED Home Improvement and Affordable Housing is taken into account Building Investment = 30,5% of GFCF

PROPERTY OWNERSHIPENGINE FOR GROWTH

AND WEALTH CREATIONR4,8 TRILLION RES PROPERTY

R1,7 TRILLION NON RES PROPERTY(Land included)

URBAN HOUSINGBACKLOG > 1,5 MILLION

UNITS IN 2010

GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND (R846 BILLION 2010-2020)

It is estimated that for every R1 spent on infrastructure, R1.40 is added to a country’s gross domestic product. PPP’s are the ideal vehicle for funding the gaps in infrastructure in Africa. (Deloittes research, May 2011)

“Unless the Housing Market recovers, the Economy will not recover.” (Warren Buffet, CNN, 4 October 2011)

Page 7: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

7 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 – 2010: R MIOwww.strategicforum.co.za

INVESTMENT IN BLDNG AND CONST BY SECTOR AS % OF GFCF: 1993-2010 (CURRENT VALUES)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

RES/GFCF 11.17% 10.36% 9.67% 9.40% 8.95% 8.17% 8.13% 9.61% 9.69% 9.16% 8.90% 10.60% 12.68% 12.39% 10.89% 9.17% 8.58% 8.44%

CONSTR/GFCF 15.19% 14.31% 12.31% 13.48% 14.14% 14.27% 15.14% 14.61% 12.60% 13.37% 15.57% 15.53% 15.45% 16.39% 19.91% 24.64% 31.30% 33.54%

NR/GFCF 11.87% 12.24% 13.01% 12.20% 11.70% 10.68% 10.98% 11.32% 11.85% 10.54% 10.27% 10.19% 10.07% 10.13% 10.30% 10.23% 11.44% 12.36%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 8: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

8 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 – 2010: R MIOwww.strategicforum.co.za

GFCF AS % OF GDP:1993-2010: CURRENT PRICES(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

GFCF/GDP 14.69% 15.15% 15.88% 16.28% 16.51% 17.09% 15.29% 14.93% 14.80% 14.70% 15.48% 15.98% 16.79% 18.34% 20.15% 23.07% 22.20% 19.59%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

25% - 30% GFCF % OF GDP REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

INFRASTRUCTURE EROSION IF RATIO < 20%

Page 9: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

9 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT

R334 068 MILLION BUILDING INVESTMENT

R159 123 MILLIONCONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT

R174 944 MILL

CONTRACTOR (50,8%)

R67 882 MIOCONTRACTOR (50,8%)

R67 882 MIO

SUBCONTRACTOR (49,2%)

R65 744 MIOSUBCONTRACTOR (49,2%)

R65 744 MIO

LABOUR (40%)

R133 627 MIO

LABOUR (40%)

R133 627 MIO

DIRECT TO USER (40%)

R80 176 MILLIONDIRECT TO USER (40%)

R80 176 MILLIONMATERIAL (60%)

R200 441 MIOMATERIAL (60%)

R200 441 MIO

INDIRECT VIA DISTRIBUTION (60%)

R120 264 MILLION

INDIRECT VIA DISTRIBUTION (60%)

R120 264 MILLION

LARGE IND BUILDERS MERCHANT (10%)

R20 044 MILLION

LARGE CHAIN BLDRS MERCHANT(25%)

R50 110 MILLION

LARGE CHAIN BLDRS MERCHANT(25%)

R50 110 MILLION

HYPERMARKET/SUPERMARKET(5%)

R10 022 MILLION

HYPERMARKET/SUPERMARKET(5%)

R10 022 MILLION

SPECIALIST SHOP(5%)

R10 022 MILLION

SPECIALIST SHOP(5%)

R10 022 MILLION

LOCAL HARDWARE STORE(15%)

R30 066 MILLION

LOCAL HARDWARE STORE(15%)

R30 066 MILLION

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R12 775 MILLION

NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R60 206 MILLION

UNRECORDEDADDITIONS AND ALT’S INVEST**

R39 500 MILLION

* 2010 Prices** Residential and Non Residential

RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT

R59 418 MILLION

CURRENT REALITY OF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: CURRENT REALITY OF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2010*2010*

Page 10: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

10 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY SECTOR: 2010

Sector R*Million % m2*1000 %Private Sector 80,735 67.49% 19,109 56.69%Public Sector 38,889 32.51% 14,598 43.31%TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING 119,623 100.00% 33,707 100.00%

Investment in Building by Sector: 2010

Segment R*Million %Roads, Streets, Bridges 48,984 28.00%Waterworks 16,357 9.35%Sewerage Works 8,082 4.62%Other Construction Works 44,611 25.50%Private Sector 56,909 32.53%TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION 174,944 100.00%

Investment in Construction by Segment: 2010

Sector R*Million %Private Sector 177,143 53.03%Public Sector 156,923 46.97%TOTAL 334,067 100.00%

Investment in Bldng and Constr by Sector: 2010

Page 11: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

11

R*Million % % R*Million Change (%) R Million Change (%) R*Million % Change (%)PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 2,538 1.68% 0.79% 2,504 -1.32% 3248 29.70% 2,595 1.65% -20.10% Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 15,653 10.38% 4.87% 15,447 -1.32% 18435 19.34% 16,008 10.15% -13.16% Townhouses & Flats 7,965 5.28% 2.48% 6,156 -22.71% 12340 100.47% 6,834 4.33% -44.62% Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 1,083 0.72% 0.34% 1,143 5.50% 461 -59.63% 1,139 0.72% 146.89% Additions & alterations 11,442 7.59% 3.56% 11,611 1.47% 11648 0.32% 11,389 7.22% -2.22%PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL Affordable Housing 13222 8.77% 4.11% 18742 41.74% 20755 10.75% 20,924 13.27% 0.81% Public authorities. 4,983 3.31% 1.55% 3,784 -24.06% 6044 59.72% 3,904 2.48% -35.41% Public corporations 9 0.01% 0.00% 32 266.67% 34 5.82% 22 0.01% -35.57%TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 56894 37.74% 17.70% 59,418 4.44% 72966 22.80% 62,814 39.83% -13.91%PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 7,678 5.09% 2.39% 8,205 6.86% 8643 5.35% 6,937 4.40% -19.74% Shops 10,517 6.98% 3.27% 8,029 -23.65% 12695 58.11% 7,345 4.66% -42.14% Industrial & warehouse 9,437 6.26% 2.94% 10,662 12.97% 16206 52.01% 10,202 6.47% -37.05% Other 2,199 1.46% 0.68% 2,852 29.67% 1215 -57.38% 2,448 1.55% 101.43% Additions & Alterations 10,157 6.74% 3.16% 14,128 39.09% 15261 8.02% 13,874 8.80% -9.09%PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL Public Authorities 14,752 9.79% 4.59% 11,941 -19.06% 14478 21.24% 11,713 7.43% -19.10% Public Corporations 4,202 2.79% 1.31% 4,390 4.47% 5630 28.25% 3,615 2.29% -35.79%TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL 58,942 39.10% 18.33% 60206 2.14% 74130 23.13% 56,134 35.59% -24.28% Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's 24,090 15.98% 7.49% 24,445 1.47% 24370 -0.31% 23,979 15.20% -1.60% Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's 10,823 7.18% 3.37% 15,054 39.09% 16262 8.02% 14,784 9.37% -9.09%TOTAL BUILDING 150,749 100.00% 46.89% 159123 5.55% 187727 17.98% 157,711 100.00% -15.99%

CONSTRUCTION Roads Streets, Bridges etc 46,958 27.50% 14.61% 48,984 4.32% 34052 -30.48% 39,722 29.00% 16.65% Waterworks 15,368 9.00% 4.78% 16,357 6.44% 12599 -22.97% 13,013 9.50% 3.28% Sewerage 8,111 4.75% 2.52% 8,082 -0.35% 5448 -32.59% 6,164 4.50% 13.13% Other Construction Works 41,835 24.50% 13.01% 44,611 6.63% 36776 -17.56% 35,613 26.00% -3.16% Private Sector 58,484 34.25% 18.19% 56,909 -2.69% 47333 -16.83% 42,462 31.00% -10.29%TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 170755 100.00% 53.11% 174944 2.45% 136209 -22.14% 136,974 100.00% 0.56%TOTAL BLDNG AND CONSTR 321,505 100.00% 334,067 3.91% 323936 -3.03% 294,685 -9.03%Materials 192,903 200,440 194,362 176,811

SECTOR AND SEGMENT20112009 2020

INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2009-2010: LMR SOYUZ SCENARIO: R MILLION (CONSTANT 2010 VALUE)2010

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY SEGMENT: 2009, 2010, 2011,2020 (R MILLIONS)

Page 12: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

12 © BMI-BRSCU

Total Mortgage Loans and Readvances by application: 1979-2010 (Current Values) (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

R M

illi

on

s (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue)

-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%

Gol

d bo

om

SA

SO

L II

SA

SO

L III

Aus

terit

y pa

ckag

e

Rub

icon

spe

ech

Deb

t sta

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ill

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ecov

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Defining Events

Y/Y

Per

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han

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R233 Billion taken out of the system

in two years!

© BMI-BRSCU

The deleveraging by the Banks and the loss of consumer spending power could only mean lost growth: mortgage repossessions, business failures, and personal bankruptcies . . .

TOTAL MORTGAGE LOANS & RE-ADVANCES: 1979-2010www.strategicforum.co.za

Page 13: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

13

GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q2 2011: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE YTD Q ON Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) % CHANGE

(Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1993

/01

1993

/02

1993

/03

1993

/04

1994

/01

1994

/02

1994

/03

1994

/04

1995

/01

1995

/02

1995

/03

1995

/04

1996

/01

1996

/02

1996

/03

1996

/04

1997

/01

1997

/02

1997

/03

1997

/04

1998

/01

1998

/02

1998

/03

1998

/04

1999

/01

1999

/02

1999

/03

1999

/04

2000

/01

2000

/02

2000

/03

2000

/04

2001

/01

2001

/02

2001

/03

2001

/04

2002

/01

2002

/02

2002

/03

2002

/04

2003

/01

2003

/02

2003

/03

2003

/04

2004

/01

2004

/02

2004

/03

2004

/04

2005

/01

2005

/02

2005

/03

2005

/04

2006

/01

2006

/02

2006

/03

2006

/04

2007

/01

2007

/02

2007

/03

2007

/04

2008

/01

2008

/02

2008

/03

2008

/04

2009

/01

2009

/02

2009

/03

2009

/04

2010

/'01

2010

/'02

2010

/'03

2010

/'04

2011

/'01

2011

/'02

2011

/'03

2011

/'04

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CU

RR

EN

T V

AL

UE

S)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Dem

ocra

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Dem

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Defining Events

CU

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/Q (

PR

EV

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S Y

EA

R)

% C

HA

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CUM YTD Q1 2011 VS 2010 = - 0,17%

CUM Q4 2010 VS 2009 = R44 014 MIO VS R45 649 MIO = - 3,58%ON TOP OF DECLINE OF - 4,41% IN 2009 VS 2008

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q2 2011www.strategicforum.co.za

Page 14: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

14

GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q1 2011: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE YTD Q TO Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) PERCENTAGE CHANGE

(Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1993

/01

1993

/02

1993

/03

1993

/04

1994

/01

1994

/02

1994

/03

1994

/04

1995

/01

1995

/02

1995

/03

1995

/04

1996

/01

1996

/02

1996

/03

1996

/04

1997

/01

1997

/02

1997

/03

1997

/04

1998

/01

1998

/02

1998

/03

1998

/04

1999

/01

1999

/02

1999

/03

1999

/04

2000

/01

2000

/02

2000

/03

2000

/04

2001

/01

2001

/02

2001

/03

2001

/04

2002

/01

2002

/02

2002

/03

2002

/04

2003

/01

2003

/02

2003

/03

2003

/04

2004

/01

2004

/02

2004

/03

2004

/04

2005

/01

2005

/02

2005

/03

2005

/04

2006

/01

2006

/02

2006

/03

2006

/04

2007

/01

2007

/02

2007

/03

2007

/04

2008

/01

2008

/02

2008

/03

2008

/04

2009

/01

2009

/02

2009

/03

2009

/04

2010

/'01

2010

/'02

2010

/'03

2010

/'04

2011

/'01

2011

/'02

2011

/'03

2011

/'04

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CU

RR

EN

T V

AL

UE

S)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Dem

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Dem

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Cur

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Defining Events

CU

M Y

TD

Q/Q

% C

HA

NG

E

CUM YTD Q1 2011 VS 2010 = + 3,21%

2010 VS 2009 = R64 288 MIO VS R60 880 Mio = + 5,93%ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 6,51% IN 2009 VS 2008

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF NON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q2 2011www.strategicforum.co.za

Page 15: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

15

GFCF TOTAL BUILDING BY QUARTER: Q1 1993-Q2 2011: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE YTD Q TO Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) PERCENTAGE CHANGE

(Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1993

/01

1993

/02

1993

/03

1993

/04

1994

/01

1994

/02

1994

/03

1994

/04

1995

/01

1995

/02

1995

/03

1995

/04

1996

/01

1996

/02

1996

/03

1996

/04

1997

/01

1997

/02

1997

/03

1997

/04

1998

/01

1998

/02

1998

/03

1998

/04

1999

/01

1999

/02

1999

/03

1999

/04

2000

/01

2000

/02

2000

/03

2000

/04

2001

/01

2001

/02

2001

/03

2001

/04

2002

/01

2002

/02

2002

/03

2002

/04

2003

/01

2003

/02

2003

/03

2003

/04

2004

/01

2004

/02

2004

/03

2004

/04

2005

/01

2005

/02

2005

/03

2005

/04

2006

/01

2006

/02

2006

/03

2006

/04

2007

/01

2007

/02

2007

/03

2007

/04

2008

/01

2008

/02

2008

/03

2008

/04

2009

/01

2009

/02

2009

/03

2009

/04

2010

/'01

2010

/'02

2010

/'03

2010

/'04

2011

/'01

2011

/'02

2011

/'03

2011

/'04

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CU

RR

EN

T V

AL

UE

S)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Dem

ocra

tic E

lect

ion

Tra

nsiti

on to

Dem

ocra

cy

Cur

renc

y C

olla

pse

Wor

ld T

rade

Cen

tre

BN

G H

ousi

ng P

rogr

amm

e

Sub

Prim

e C

risis

(N

CA

)

Soc

cer

Wor

ld C

up

Defining Events

CU

M Q

/Q (

PR

EV

IOU

S Y

EA

R)

% C

HA

NG

E

CUM YTD Q1 2011 VS 2010 = + 3,59%

2010 VS 2009 = R108 502 MIO VS R106 529 MIO = + 1,85%ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 1,54% IN 2009 VS 2008

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF TOTAL BUILDING: Q1 1993-Q2 2011www.strategicforum.co.za

Page 16: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

16 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

BPP & BC TOTAL BUILDING: 1993-2011www.strategicforum.co.za

BPP & BC Total Building: 1993-2011 by month: R*1000 (Current Values) (July)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: TOTAL BLDNG BC&BPP

R)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

R*1

00

0 (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

s)

BC TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000 BPP TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000

12 per. Mov. Avg. (BC TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (BPP TOTAL BUILDING: R*1000)

Page 17: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

17 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

CUM Y/Y % CHANGE BPP & BC TOTAL BUILDING: 1993-2011www.strategicforum.co.za

Cum Y/Y % Ch: BPP and BC: Total Building (Incl A&A): 1993-2011: R*1000 (Current Values) (July) (Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: % CUM BC BY SEGM & MNTH: Chart 15(2))

-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH % CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH

12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BC BY SEGM& MNTH) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (% CUM BPP BY SEGM& MNTH)

Total BC turned at about – 20% and will move to positive growth by third to fourth quarter 2011 . . .

Total BPP has turned at - 30% and breached zero in early 2011 . . .

Page 18: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

18 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

NET BUILDING IN THE PIPELINE TOTAL BUILDING: 1993-2011www.strategicforum.co.za

Total Building: BC: 1993-2011: Net Building in the Pipeline (NBIP): by Month: R*1000 (Current Values) (July)

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU: BC Total RSA by Month and Type of Building1993-2008: NBIP (BPP-BC): Chart 16)

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC) Total Building BC

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building NBIP (BPP-BC)) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Building BC)

Total BC Trend-break occurred in mid 2006.

Recovery is on the way.

Page 19: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

19

AFFORDABLE HOUSING DELIVERY AND BACKLOG: 2002-2010LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ AND HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO: 2011-2020

(Source: StatsSA and BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

AN

NU

AL

HO

US

ING

DE

LIV

ER

Y (

UN

ITS

)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

AN

NU

AL

HO

US

ING

BA

KL

OG

(U

NIT

S)

DOH Delivery: Lower Middle Road Soyuz Scenario DOH Delivery: High Road Columbus Scenario

Annual Housing Backlog under Columbus Scenario Annual Housing Backlog under Soyuz Scenario

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

THE ROLE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN BUILDING: 2011-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

If 3,64 Million houses could be built in next 10 years and

Backlog will be reduced to I million by 2020.

The target remains the eradication of all slums, or informal settlements, by 2014. For this to happen, some 500 000 new units a year must become available, according to the Department of Housing’s Strategic Plan.

Page 20: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

20

Zoning Type Density )Gross) Units m2/Unit Total m2 R/m2 R/Unit Stand Total R Million* %Giveaway RDP Residential 2 Row Housing 90 Units/Ha 408,000 45 18,513,017 2,192 99,450 9,945 109,395 40,576 3.63%Giveaway RDP Residential 3 Walk-ups 125 Units/Ha 1,814,164 45 82,317,670 2,192 99,450 9,945 109,395 180,419 16.13%Upgraded RDP Residential 1 1 House/Stand 200 m2-450 m2 1,418,946 68 96,488,359 4,422 300,685 30,069 330,754 426,656 38.15%

Total BNG 3,641,110 177,872 647,651

Residential 1 Semi-Detatched 190 m2 258,497 113 29,080,951 4,422 497,457 49,746 547,203 128,591 11.50%Residential 1 1 House/Stand 1 per 350 m2 126,274 180 22,729,255 4,422 795,931 79,593 875,524 100,505 8.99%

384,771 385 148,298,564 1,545 595,410 59,541 595,410 229,096 78.39%Total Affordable Housing 4,025,881 217,778 876,747

Zoning Units m2/Unit Total m2 R/m2 R/Unit Stand Total R Million* %Business 3,000 5,000 25,000,000 6,151 30,756,224 3,075,622 33,831,847 92,269 8.25%Industrial 3,000 5,000 25,000,000 4,039 20,195,000 2,019,500 22,214,500 60,585 5.42%Business 6,000 5,000 50,000,000 2,960 14,800,000 1,480,000 16,280,000 88,800 7.94%

12,000 8,333 100,000,000 2,417 20,137,806 6,575,122 72,326,347 241,654 21.61%248,298,564 1,118,401 100.00%

* Land excludedEmployment created per annum for Residential AH and Non Residential Integrated Development 245,240Employment created per annum for Affordable Housing Market 192,251Employment created per annum for one Affordable House 0.0478Employment created per annum for 1000000 Affordable Houses 47754

245,240

(Source: BMI-BRSCU Estimate)

Non Residential (m2)Offices & Banking

Grand Total

Industrial and WarehousingShopping & CommercialTotal Non Residential

ESTIMATED NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IN SUSTAINABLE INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS

ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IN SUSTAINABLE INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTSResidential

Bonded (FSC)Total Middle

BNG Housing

GAP Housing

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

*) Subsidy and stand included because affordability is determined in this way.

Investment in Sustainable Integrated Housing Developments:www.strategicforum.co.za

If the 4,03 million houses can be built in the next 10 years this will result in investment of R877 Billion (land excluded) and R241 Billion in Non Residential Building.And . . . Create 245 000 additional jobs in the process.

Page 21: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

21 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

THE ROLE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN BUILDING: 2011-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

The Department of Human Settlements was unable to address the burden of the housing backlog on its own, Sexwale said at the launch

of the “Each One Settle One” campaign at the JSE yesterday.

The campaign aims to mobilise various stakeholders, including the top 200 JSE-listed companies, to assist the

department in providing decent shelter to more than 2 million households living in squatter camps, as well as in informal settlements.

Sexwale said the number of informal settlements in the country

had grown from 800 when he was Gauteng premier to 2 500 today.

The housing backlog under his watch had increased from 2.1

million houses when he became minister to 2.3 million, despite his

department building 200 000 houses a year.

Sexwale attributed this situation to the increasing number of households and the decrease in the size of households, admitting that the government had got itself into “a very tight situation since 1994” by providing free houses for the poor.

“It was not the best thing to do. We can’t provide free housing forever but we have got to do that because we can’t turn our backs against the poor. It’s not their fault they are in that situation,” Sexwale said.

BUT . . . has the story changed?

Page 22: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

22

Sexwale warned that if there was a second recession in the country it would introduce social instability.

“The protests of our people are beginning to get violent every day. It’s worrying. The police are shooting every day. Let’s work together to try and stem the tide.”

Sexwale said housing was not just a social expenditure item but an economic dynamo because it contributed massively to economic growth.

“It stimulates the whole financial system and when it doesn’t happen, the world starts burning and we just don’t know where it ends.”

He said it was easy for firms to hide behind corporate social investment but it would “not keep this problem at bay”.

A social investment desk had been created in the department to manage the activities of the campaign and projects on a project-by-project basis.

Khanyisile Kweyama, the executive head of human resources at Anglo American Platinum, said it embraced the

campaign and was contributing R1.4 billion towards facilitating the building of 20 000 houses for its employees over the next 10 years.

Leon van Schalkwyk, the group executive of strategic finance at Impala Platinum, said it had a proven track record in community-based housing solutions through its extensive home ownership programme in the North

West to uplift its employees, which had resulted in the construction of more than 1 500 freestanding units over a three-year period. (Business Report, 30 September, 2011)

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

THE ROLE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN BUILDING: 2011-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

Page 23: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

23

GFCF CONSTRUCTION WORKS Q1 1993-Q2 2011: CURRENT VALUESCUMULATIVE Q ON Q (PREVIOUS YEAR) PERCENTAGE CHANGE(Source: SARB; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1993

/01

1993

/02

1993

/03

1993

/04

1994

/01

1994

/02

1994

/03

1994

/04

1995

/01

1995

/02

1995

/03

1995

/04

1996

/01

1996

/02

1996

/03

1996

/04

1997

/01

1997

/02

1997

/03

1997

/04

1998

/01

1998

/02

1998

/03

1998

/04

1999

/01

1999

/02

1999

/03

1999

/04

2000

/01

2000

/02

2000

/03

2000

/04

2001

/01

2001

/02

2001

/03

2001

/04

2002

/01

2002

/02

2002

/03

2002

/04

2003

/01

2003

/02

2003

/03

2003

/04

2004

/01

2004

/02

2004

/03

2004

/04

2005

/01

2005

/02

2005

/03

2005

/04

2006

/01

2006

/02

2006

/03

2006

/04

2007

/01

2007

/02

2007

/03

2007

/04

2008

/01

2008

/02

2008

/03

2008

/04

2009

/01

2009

/02

2009

/03

2009

/04

2010

/'01

2010

/'02

2010

/'03

2010

/'04

2011

/'01

2011

/'02

2011

/'03

2011

/'04

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CU

RR

EN

T V

AL

UE

S)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gau

trai

n

Esk

om

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Soc

cer

Wor

ld C

up

Defining Events

CU

M Q

/Q (

PR

EV

IOU

S Y

EA

R)

% C

HA

NG

E

Gross fixed capital formation: Construction works - Total (Investment) Cum Q on Q (Previous Year) % Change

CUM YTD Q2 2011 VS 2010 = + 3,86%

2010 VS 2009 = R174 944 MIO VS R166 480 MIO = + 5,08%ON TOP OF GROWTH OF + 33,42% IN 2009 VS 2008

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF CONSTRUCTION: Q1 1993-Q2 2011 (JUNE)www.strategicforum.co.za

Page 24: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

24 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 – 2010: R MIOwww.strategicforum.co.za

GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993-2010 R*1000 (CURRENT VALUES)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

R M

ILL

ION

S (

CU

RR

EN

T V

AL

UE

S)

GFCF Transfer Costs 24156 28601 35438 42874 48593 54667 55377 58040 64318 78317 81072 90721 100020 127176 158327 203608 163756 142856

GFCF Machinery and Equipment 24156 28601 35438 42874 48593 54667 55377 58040 64318 78317 81072 90721 100020 127176 158327 203608 163756 142856

GFCF Transport Equipment 9508 10968 13828 14202 16024 19167 15114 17841 19585 18850 25694 29219 34789 40865 46725 53469 59880 60784

GFCF Construction 9,508 10,454 10,716 13,568 16,005 18,116 18,831 20,112 19,029 23,022 30,663 35,115 40,739 53,124 80,879 129,280 166,481 174,944

GFCF Non Residential 7,428 8,939 11,322 12,282 13,243 13,554 13,656 15,586 17,897 18,145 20,232 23,059 26,565 32,821 41,850 53,654 60,880 64,488

GFCF Residential 6,990 7,567 8,415 9,464 10,134 10,366 10,120 13,228 14,635 15,772 17,541 23,983 33,455 40,148 44,235 48,127 45,649 44,014

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 25: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

25 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 – 2009: R MIOwww.strategicforum.co.za

GFCF BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993-2010 R*MILLIONS (CURRENT VALUES)(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

(C

UR

RE

NT

VA

LU

ES

)

GFCF Computer Related Equipment 4.43% 5.08% 4.97% 4.84% 5.21% 6.18% 6.57% 6.62% 7.47% 7.56% 7.75% 6.61% 6.36% 5.96% 5.64% 5.08% 4.86% 4.56%

GFCF Transfer Costs 3.58% 3.84% 3.44% 3.35% 2.93% 2.52% 2.53% 2.72% 2.82% 2.92% 3.32% 4.03% 4.33% 3.28% 2.79% 1.88% 1.77% 2.05%

GFCF Machinery and Equipment 38.59% 39.16% 40.71% 42.60% 42.92% 43.07% 44.51% 42.16% 42.59% 45.49% 41.15% 40.11% 37.92% 39.24% 38.97% 38.81% 30.78% 27.39%

GFCF Transport Equipment 15.19% 15.02% 15.89% 14.11% 14.15% 15.10% 12.15% 12.96% 12.97% 10.95% 13.04% 12.92% 13.19% 12.61% 11.50% 10.19% 11.26% 11.65%

GFCF Construction 15.19% 14.31% 12.31% 13.48% 14.14% 14.27% 15.14% 14.61% 12.60% 13.37% 15.57% 15.53% 15.45% 16.39% 19.91% 24.64% 31.30% 33.54%

GFCF Non Residential 11.87% 12.24% 13.01% 12.20% 11.70% 10.68% 10.98% 11.32% 11.85% 10.54% 10.27% 10.19% 10.07% 10.13% 10.30% 10.23% 11.44% 12.36%

GFCF Residential 11.17% 10.36% 9.67% 9.40% 8.95% 8.17% 8.13% 9.61% 9.69% 9.16% 8.90% 10.60% 12.68% 12.39% 10.89% 9.17% 8.58% 8.44%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 26: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

26 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

GFCF BY TYPE OF ASSET: 1993 – 2009: R MIOwww.strategicforum.co.za

GFCF BY ASSET TYPE: 2010(Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

TRANSFER COSTS/TOTAL, 2.05%

COMPUTER RLATED EQUIPMENT/TOTAL,

4.56%

RESIDENTIAL/TOTAL, 8.44%

NON RESIDENTIAL/TOTAL,

12.36%

CONSTRUCTION/TOTAL, 33.54%, 34%

MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT/TOTAL,

27.39%

TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT/TOTAL,

11.65%, 12%

CONSTRUCTION, RESIDENTIAL & NON RESIDENTIAL

= 54%

Page 27: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

27 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL MORTGAGE LOANS & RE-ADVANCES: 1979-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

Total Mortgage Loans and Readvances: 1979-2010Lower Middle Road Scenario: 2011-2020 (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

R M

illi

on

s (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

19

79-2

010

; C

on

sta

nt

valu

e 2

01

1-2

020

)

-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%

Gol

d bo

omS

AS

OL

IIS

AS

OL

III

Aus

terit

y pa

ckag

eR

ubic

on s

peec

hD

ebt s

tand

still

Eco

nom

ic r

ecov

ery

Man

dela

's r

elea

se

Dem

ocra

tic E

lect

ion

Tra

nsiti

on to

Dem

ocra

cy

Cur

renc

y co

llaps

e

Wor

ld T

rade

Cen

tre

BN

G H

ousi

ng P

rogr

amm

e

Sub

Prim

e C

risis

(N

CA

)

Defining Events

Y/Y

Per

cen

atag

e C

han

ge

Strategic Forum Lower Middle Road Scenario

Page 28: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

28 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

MORTGAGE LOANS ON CONSTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS: 1979-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

Mortgage Loans on Construction of Buildings: 1979-2010Lower Middle Road Scenario: 2011-2020 (Source: SARB, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

R M

illi

on

s (

Cu

rre

nt

Va

lue

19

79-2

010

; C

on

sta

nt

valu

e 2

01

1-2

020

)

-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%

Gol

d bo

omS

AS

OL

II

SA

SO

L III

Aus

terit

y pa

ckag

eR

ubic

on s

peec

hD

ebt s

tand

still

Eco

nom

ic r

ecov

ery

Man

dela

's r

elea

se

Dem

ocra

tic E

lect

ion

Tra

nsiti

on to

Dem

ocra

cy

Cur

renc

y co

llaps

e

Wor

ld T

rade

Cen

tre

BN

G H

ousi

ng P

rogr

amm

e

Sub

Prim

e C

risis

(N

CA

)

Defining Events

Y/Y

Per

ce

na

tag

e C

ha

ng

e

Strategic Forum Lower Middle Road Scenario

Page 29: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

29

Total Mortgage Advances: 2002 - 2010The Strategic Forum Scenarios: 2011-2020(Source: SARB; MFA DATABASE, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

2675

04

2599

27

2518

37

2674

81

2888

57

3033

39

3185

37

3265

00

3330

30

3180

44

3085

02

536880

223203

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

illi

on

s (C

on

stan

t 20

10 V

alu

es)

High Road New York Scenario: 2011-2020Higher Middle Road London Scenario: 2011-2020Lower Middle Road Sao Paolo Scenario: 2011-2020Low Road Harari Scenario: 2011-2020Sao Paolo Scenario:2011-2020

Sao Paolo Scenariois Current

Most likely future Scenario

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

R313 Billion decline in

only 3 years!

Under the High Road it could take a decade to get

back to the 2006 level!

Page 30: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

30

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2000-2010 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2011-2020

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

15,000

40,000

65,000

90,000

115,000

140,000

165,000

190,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

2010

VA

LU

ES

)

TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2007: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2008-2015

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIOBETWEEN SOYUZ AND CHALLENGER

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

Page 31: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

31

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING: 2000-2010 THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2011-2020

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

15,000

40,000

65,000

90,000

115,000

140,000

165,000

190,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

2010

VA

LU

ES

)

TOTAL BUILDINGS : 2000-2007: LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ SCENARIO: 2008-2015

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS LOW ROAD CHALLENGER SCENARIO

TOTAL BUILDINGS HIGHER MIDDLE ROAD APOLLO SCENARIO

1984 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIOBETWEEN SOYUZ AND CHALLENGER

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

The difference between “high road” and “lower middle road” could be R139 Billion and 300 000 jobs over the 10 years to 2020.

Page 32: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

32 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

CONSTRUCTION CAPITAL PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE: 1993-2010www.strategicforum.co.za

Announced value of total Capital Projects: 1993-2010 (Current Values)(Source: Capital Expenditure Project Listing: August 2011, NEDBANK Group Economic Unit, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

R M

illio

ns

(Cu

rren

t V

alu

e)

Private Sector Public Sector

Both Private and Public Sector Projects boosted the Construction Work in the Pipeline.

But the DECLINE from 2006-2010 raises concerns.

Page 33: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

33 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

CONSTRUCTION CAPITAL PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE: 1993-2010www.strategicforum.co.za

Capital Expenditure announced, GFCF in Construction and Net Construction in the Pipeline (NCIP): 1993-2010 (Current Values)

(Source: Capital Expenditure Project Listing: August 2011, NEDBANK Group Economic Unit, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

R M

illio

ns

(Cu

rren

t V

alu

e)

Total Capex announced Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Net Construction In the Pipeline (NCIP)

Large NEGATIVE GAP in NCIP raises concerns about Short- to Medium-term SUSTAINABILITY of GFCF in Construction.

Page 34: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

34 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

CONSTRUCTION CAPITAL PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE: 1993-2015www.strategicforum.co.za

Actual Capital Expenditure projected in each year: 1993-2015 (Current Prices)(Source: Capital Expenditure Project Listing: August 2011, NEDBANK Group Economic Unit, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R M

illi

on

s (

Cu

rren

t P

ric

es)

Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries Mining & Quarying

Manufacturing Electricity & Water

Wholesale, Retail & Motor Trade, Hotels & Entertainment Transport, Storage & Communication

Finance, Real Estate & Commercial Services Community, Social & personal services

Transport, Storage & Communication is the major contributor to projected Capex.

The reduction in projected Capex from 2011 to 2015 raises concerns over SUSTAINABILITY of GFCF in Construction.

Page 35: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

35 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION BY SEGMENT: 2002-2020www.strategicforum.co.za

INVESTMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2001-2010THE STRATEGIC FORUM SCENARIOS: 2011-2020

(Source: SARB, StatsSA, MFA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

R M

ILL

ION

S (

2010

VA

LU

ES

)

MOTORWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 HIGHWAY SCENARIO: 2007-2015 FREEWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015

BYWAY SCENARIO: 2001-2015 Peak 1980 Level

The currentMOST LIKELY FUTURE

is theFREEWAY SCENARIO

1980 PEAK LEVEL OF INVESTMENT

Page 36: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

36

2011-2020 Average PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL R*Million R*Million % % Dwelling-houses < 80 m2 29,472 2,947 1.69% 0.94% Dwelling-houses > 80 m2 176,887 17,689 10.12% 5.67% Townhouses & Flats 102,292 10,229 5.85% 3.28% Other (Incl. hotels & casinos) 8,420 842 0.48% 0.27% Additions & alterations 109,727 10,973 6.28% 3.52%PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL Affordable Housing 201,003 20,100 11.50% 6.44% Public authorities. 52,901 5,290 3.03% 1.70% Public corporations 309 31 0.02% 0.01%TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 681,011 68,101 38.95% 21.83%PRIVATE NON-RESIDENTIAL Offices 89,860 8,986 5.14% 2.88% Shops 103,453 10,345 5.92% 3.32% Industrial & warehouse 138,568 13,857 7.92% 4.44% Other 19,151 1,915 1.10% 0.61% Additions & Alterations 139,014 13,901 7.95% 4.46%PUBLIC NON-RESIDENTIAL Public Authorities 146,557 14,656 8.38% 4.70% Public Corporations 47,401 4,740 2.71% 1.52%TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL 684,005 68,400 39.12% 21.93% Unrecorded Res Add's and Alt's 235,437 23,544 13.46% 7.55% Unrecorded Non Res Add's and Alt's 148,133 14,813 8.47% 4.75%GRAND TOTAL 1,748,586 174,859 100.00% 56.06%

CONSTRUCTION Roads Streets, Bridges etc 374,509 37,451 27.33% 12.01% Waterworks 126,766 12,677 9.25% 4.06% Sewerage 57,355 5,736 4.18% 1.84% Other Construction Works 365,032 36,503 26.63% 11.70% Private Sector 446,844 44,684 32.60% 14.33%TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 1,370,507 137,051 100.00% 43.94%TOTAL BLDNG AND CONSTR 3,119,092 311,909 100.00%3 years (2010-2012) 935,7285 years (2010-2014) 1,559,54611 years (2010-2020) 3,431,001

SECTOR AND SEGMENTINVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION: 2011-2020: LMR SOYUZ SCENARIO

© BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TOTAL INVESTMENT IN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY SEGMENT: 2011-2020

Page 37: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

37 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

Conditions for High Road ScenarioInvestor Confidence:• High confidence;• Risk taking propensity • GDP growth > 6% pa;• CPI in 3-6% range;• Real Interest Rates < 5%;Investment Climate: • Property a preferred investment;• FTHB Subsidies increased to 2,5-5% of Budget;• The non residential market grows in tandem with residential; • Home improvement and non residential refurbishment markets grow at > 10% pa;• Private Sector Investment as a percentage of Total Investment in Building 50-60%;Property Delivery:• Building growth 2010-2020 at > 6,5% pa;• The R1,5 Trillion Affordable Housing programme successfully implemented;• Backlogs eliminated by 2020;• Construction growth 2108-2020 at > 7,5% pa;• The R846 Billion Government Infrastructure programme is successfully implemented

Page 38: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

38 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

Conditions for High Road ScenarioInvestor Confidence:• High confidence;• Risk taking propensity • GDP growth > 6% pa;• CPI in 3-6% range;• Real Interest Rates < 5%;Investment Climate: • Property a preferred investment;• FTHB Subsidies increased to 2,5-5% of Budget;• The non residential market grows in tandem with residential; • Home improvement and non residential refurbishment markets grow at > 10% pa;• Private Sector Investment as a percentage of Total Investment in Building 50-60%;Property Delivery:• Building growth 2010-2020 at > 6,5% pa;• The R1,5 Trillion Affordable Housing programme successfully implemented;• Backlogs eliminated by 2020;• Construction growth 2108-2020 at > 7,5% pa;• The R846 Billion Government Infrastructure programme is successfully implemented

“ “ This is the ideal time to borrow and invest heavily in This is the ideal time to borrow and invest heavily in public infrastructure public infrastructure that has been badly neglected over that has been badly neglected over the past 30 years . . . Not only to roads and bridges but the past 30 years . . . Not only to roads and bridges but also to airports and air traffic control systems, urban also to airports and air traffic control systems, urban transit, high-speed rail, schools and university facilities, transit, high-speed rail, schools and university facilities, national laboratories, national parks, smart electric grids, national laboratories, national parks, smart electric grids, broadband networks, green generating plants and health broadband networks, green generating plants and health information networks.information networks.

This forward looking approach is This forward looking approach is best defined not as best defined not as deficit spending fuelling consumption deficit spending fuelling consumption but as an but as an investment for the future investment for the future with fiscal consolidation with fiscal consolidation achieved in a way that supports jobs and growth” (Gordon achieved in a way that supports jobs and growth” (Gordon Brown: 148: 2010)Brown: 148: 2010)

Page 39: The infrastructure dashboard ytd 2011 (PP Presentation)

39 © BMI-BRSCU© BMI-BRSCU

TowardsBuilding, the Engine for growth and wealth creation

Dr. Llewellyn B. LewisDr. Llewellyn B. LewisOctober 2011October 2011

THE STRATEGIC FORUMTHE STRATEGIC FORUM

A place of assembly for strategic conversations

THE STRATEGIC FORUMwww.strategicforum.co.za

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Studium Ad Prosperandum

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