the future of travel and tourism in the middle east - a
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020A global perspective on the industry’s challenges in the region
Global Futures and Foresight
May 2007
Global Futuresand Foresight
“This study is a ground breaking project for the Middle East and will provide a truly international perspective on how travel in the region could develop and what the implications might be. Being associated with this leading work is a demonstration of our commitment to contributing to the sustainable development of travel in the region.”
Richard Mortimore, Chief Executive,Reed Travel Exhibitions
Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey UAE Yemen
Platinum Sponsors
Going for Growth - Across the region, countries, states and
cities are embarking on an unparalleled program of investment
and development to increase capacity, improve infrastructures
and grow tourist numbers and revenues. Current estimates
suggest that over the next 20 years, upwards of $3 trillion is
going directly into leisure and tourism and indirectly into the
supporting infrastructure.i Through projects announced to date,
by 2020 the region will add airport capacity for 300M extra
passengers,ii build over 200 new hotels, add 100,000 additional
rooms,iii grow visitor numbers to 150M, and increase the size of
it’s aircraft fleet by over 150% by 2025.iv v
To explore the potential implications of such explosive growth and
development, Global Futures and Foresight has launched a major
program of study into the future of travel and tourism in the
Middle East to 2020. The aim of the study is to identify the
drivers and barriers which could sustain, accelerate or curtail the
forecast boom in travel and tourism in the region. The study will
identify key global, regional and local security, political, economic,
social, technological, environmental and legislative trends,
examine consumer behaviours and explore potential ‘wild cards’
and discontinuous changes. It will then develop scenarios
highlighting their possible impact on the region’s plans.
Uncertain Future - In studying the future one thing becomes
clear, there is not one certain future that we are inexorably
moving towards but many possible futures. The future that
ultimately emerges will be formed by our own plans and by
changes and forces in our external environment including trends,
new ideas, discontinuous change and ‘wild card’ low probability,
high impact events. The current plans of countries, states, cities
and individual developers and operators are underpinned by a
strong growth-orientated ‘preferred future’. Any analysis of history
shows that the outcome at the end of any five, ten or twenty year
time period rarely resembles what was forecast at the start.
Hence, treating the future as a single certain outcome is a high
risk strategy. By considering a range of possible futures, the study
aims to help minimise risks and surface opportunities for
everyone engaged in the industry. Reed Travel Exhibitions and the
Arabian Travel Market are the Platinum and launch sponsors of
this study. We invite other parties who are interested in better
understanding the future of the travel and tourism market in the
Middle East region to join us in this exciting project.
Issues – How broad are the scenarios you have considered?
How willing is your organisation to ‘discuss the undiscussable’
and think about those factors that may challenge your current
growth assumptions? What if growth differs significantly from
current forecasts?
This Report - In this section we explore some of the key
challenges for the region in delivering its current travel and
tourism strategies. In the second section we explore some of
the critical global trends and drivers of change which could have
the greatest bearing on the sector. In the centre pages of the
report, we present a timeline that outlines many of the most
interesting landmark developments, targets and issues arising on
the path to 2020 and beyond. In the final section we provide a
short summary of some of the key plans and developments
across the region and a table that enables us to compare the
countries of the region at a glance.
Vision and Viability - An analysis of the country strategies
on pages 11-13 highlights that the region has the ambition,
resources and commitment to turn vision into reality.
The challenge is to ensure the long term viability of those
strategies. Going all out to deliver 10M, 15M or 20M visitors
presents one set of challenges, sustaining those numbers
represents a very different issue set.
Issues - How will we find future customers to sustain our
visitor targets? How will we maintain the price premium
required to deliver our desired rate of return?
What will it cost to update amenities and infrastructure to
ensure we stay competitive with other planned and future
developments in the region and further afield?
How will we respond if visitor numbers don’t meet our
business plan targets?
Information Reliability - In our research we found huge
variation between the visitor forecasts coming from different
sources such as the national tourist agencies, the WTTC and
independent research houses (figure 1). In Turkey the variation
in expected tourist numbers by 2010 is between 22m and 30m.
Investors, developers, facility operators, governments and
infrastructure planners need reliable and up to date forecast
data on which to base their assumptions and plans.
More importantly, those developing tourist and leisure facilities
need to see that infrastructure planners are working to the same
set of growth assumptions to ensure adequate provision of water,
sanitation, power, transportation and telecommunications.
Issue – is there the potential for a central regional agency which
defines standards, collects data and generates forecasts on a
consistent basis so the outputs can then be used by everyone?
The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East
Tourist Number Forecasts by Country(Dates shown are Countries tourist forecast for that year)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Millions of tourists per year
WTTC (Adjusted) CurrentGovernment Current FigureWTTC (Adjusted) ForecastGovernment Forecast
Saud
i Ara
bia
Turk
ey
Egyp
t
Jord
an
Syri
a
Kuw
ait
Iran
Qat
ar
UA
E
Bahr
ain
Om
an
Leba
non
Yem
en
2020
2010
2014
2010
2010
2010
2010
2020
2010
2010
2025 2010
Figure 1
$US,000’s
Tourist visitor growth plotted against annual Tourist revenue percitizen $US,000 and against annualTourists per citizen
An
nu
al
tou
ris
ts/c
itiz
en
Bahrain2016
Bahrain2006
UAE2006
UAE2006Kuwait
2016
Kuwait2006
Jordan2016
Jordan2016
Saudi Arabia2016
Qatar2006
Qatar2016
Lebanon2016
Lebanon
2016
Syria2016
Syria2006
Egypt2016
Oman2016
Oman2006
Iran2006
Yemen2006, 2016
16
12
8
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1.75
1.25
1.0
.75
.5
.25
0
Figure 2
Innovation - A wave of innovation has swept the sector and is
creating developments like the Palms, the Pearl, the Louvre,
Hydropolis underwater hotel, and the world’s largest buildings,
hotels and airports are all in the pipeline. However, many are
international in nature and could equally have been located in
Shanghai, Stockholm or Sharjah. The region’s challenge now is
to drive the next wave of innovation that emphasises, celebrates
and promotes Middle Eastern cultures, heritage and tradition.
Issue - What aspects of your culture, heritage or tradition
will you emphasise in tourist developments and promotion in
the future?
Competition and Co-operation – Average length of stay in
some destinations is currently as low as 1.5 days.vi To achieve
the desired returns, destinations and attractions will need to
drive up average length of stay and consider collaboration.
Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and Israel are already exploring the potential
for marketing multi-center visits. The key to success will be to
ensure a seamless experience for the traveller and minimise the
time spent in airports and customs clearance – possibly making
road and rail options more attractive. Clear differentiation will also
be required of the attractions on offer from one destination to the
next. Simply swapping from one luxury five star hotel to the next
may not be enough.
Issues – Can the region’s players get beyond competition to
achieve win-win collaboration? How do we create a seamless
and hassle-free experience for the multi-center visitor across
the region and possibly with destinations in Asia?
Sustainability /Protection of Culture andHeritage/Volume vs. ValueA key dimension to consider is the social, economic and
environmental sustainability of the region’s travel ambitions.
Figure 2 uses WTTC figures for income per tourist, the number
of visitors per citizen in 2006 and the forecasts for 2016.
The diagram highlights clear positioning choices – for example in
2016 Qatar is targeting tourist income of over $US11,000 per
citizen, it is seeking to do this at a level of just over two tourists
per citizen. In contrast, Jordan, Saudi and Oman expect visitor to
citizen ratios of between 0.75 and 1.5 - but with only $1,000 to
$1,700 tourist income per citizen. Given that irrespective of
spend, each visitor places roughly the same demand per day on
resources and on use of the infrastructure, water and other
services, the chart highlights clear choices in where countries
position their tourist proposition. High tourist numbers, with
shorter stays put undue pressure on transit facilities and airline
capacities. This also raises the issue of how far down countries
are willing to chase prices in order to utilise capacity once built
and may place an even stronger emphasis on more phased and
flexible development approaches.
Issues – Given the growing concern over the region’s supply
of fresh water and the demands placed on infrastructure,
will this inevitably force players to move upmarket and
focus on attracting smaller numbers of longer staying,
higher spending visitors?
Differentiation and Target Market - The region will have no
shortage of high end luxury developments and international
standard attractions. The issue is how effectively the promoters
can identify and target the market segments who will be the most
ready users of these facilities. Longer term, there will be a
growing need for differentiation between facilities within a
destination and between destinations.
Issues: Will you target older or younger, Americans, Europeans,
locals or Asians? Will you emphasise activity, sport, cultural or
health tourism and in what mix? What do you want your location
to be famous for?
Tourists per Tourist Industry Employee300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Service Ratio CurrentService Ratio 2017
Yem
en
Iran
Egyp
t
Leba
non
Turk
ey
UA
E
Om
an
Jord
an
Kuw
ait
Syri
a
Saud
i Ara
bia
Qat
ar
Bahr
ain
Figure 3
Service Standards - Figure 3 highlights a massive variation in
the expected number of visitors per travel and tourism sector
employee. To provide a consistent benchmark this model
assumes an average length of stay of one night. Given the desire
of many destinations to achieve premium positioning, service
ratio will be a critical determinant of the visitor experience.
Issues – What is the optimum service ratio for your desired
market positioning? How do you currently compare with other
destinations and attractions? Can you use a more favourable
service ratio as part of the marketing proposition? Is the region
prepared to start investing in tertiary, secondary, primary and
even nursery education facilities in Asia and Africa to educate
the next two generations of service staff required to meet the
future staffing needs of the region’s travel and tourism sector?
Flexibility - The construction of a temporary facility at
Doha airport to handle 30M passengers for the Asian games
demonstrates that more flexible and modular approaches can be
adopted to meet temporary demand spikes.vii For the region, given
the uncertainties around security and climate change, flexibility
may be critical to avoid over-capacity. Concepts such as flatpack
temporary hotels, floating hotels, and low-environmental footprint
solutions may all need to be considered to mitigate the risks of
demand lagging supply.
Issue – are players in the region willing to consider such
flexible alternatives given the current focus on large
showpiece developments?
Safety - The issues of terrorism and inter-state conflict are well
rehearsed and don’t need revisiting here. However, other
challenges cannot be ignored – for example, could the region’s
reclaimed islands be at major risk from rising sea levels? Other
weather related events such as tsunamis and hurricanes are
expected to increase in ferocity and frequency. The 1918
influenza pandemic killed over 40m people, and there have been
two since then.vii The risk is rising of global pandemics through
the spread of diseases such as SARS and Avian Flu.
Issue - What impact might just one climate disaster or
disease outbreak have on regional tourist numbers?
Resources - Some forecasts suggest water availability could
halve across the region within 50 yearsix – and these may not
fully account for anticipated tourism growth. At the same time
the construction of hotel, airport and leisure facilities will
create major demand for steel, glass, concrete and other
construction materials.
Issue - The lack of water could become a major constraint on
the region’s ability to attract and sustain the desired levels of
tourists. Rising raw material prices may affect the viability and
payback period of projects.
Global Drivers of Change -Understanding a Changing WorldThe future is not a single destination. As we look ahead to 2020,
there are a number of different possible outcomes and some
key factors that will have the greatest influence on which path
we take and where we end up in 2020. The future of travel
and tourism in the Middle East will both influence and be
influenced by these critical global drivers of change.
These key political, economic, social, demographic, technological
and environmental factors will influence everything from social
attitudes and consumer demand to resource availability; they
will shape confidence in the sector and drive government policy
and regulation around the world. In this section we explore
these global drivers, highlight potential futures they make
possible and identify key questions raised for decision makers
in business and government.
Economic Power Shift - China is now the fourth largest global
economy and India the 9th.x Rising populations, growing
industrialisation, the opening up of markets and globalisation
of industries are helping to accelerate economic shifts and the
rise of Asia. By 2050, countries like Bangladesh, the Philippines
and Vietnam could all be among the top 20. From the region,
Turkey, Egypt and Iran could rank 17th, 19th and 21st xi.
These shifts are creating new trading relationships, opening
up new opportunities and creating whole new target markets
for inbound visitors and investors.
Impact – The world is discovering these new economies and the
competition for their attention and markets is intensifying.
Issue – How can the region position itself to maximise visitor
flows from these rapidly growing economies?
Growth and Ageing of the Global Population - The world’s
population rose from 3bn in 1960 to 6bn in 2000, and is
forecast to reach 7.6Bn by 2020 and 9Bn by 2050.
While Europe is expected to shrink by over 100M by 2050,
most regions will grow and Asia, the Middle East and Africa will
experience the most dramatic increases xii. At the same time,
many nations are experiencing rapid ageing of their populations
through a combination of dramatically falling birth rates and
increasing life expectancy. Globally, the proportion of those over
60 will rise from 10% today to 13.6% in 2020 and 20% by 2050.
The spread will range from 50% in some European countries
to 5% in Africa. Life expectancy in developed economies has
risen 20 years in the last 80 In Japan, Europe and The USA,
life expectancy is now around 80 and heading towards 100
within the lifetime of our children xiii. Citizens over 65 in Europe
and the USA own over 70% of all the personal assets of
those economies.xiv
Impact – These changes will significantly impact the level
of disposable income, who holds the wealth, where future
customers will come from, how old they will be and from
where we recruit future staff. Extended lifespans could see
funds being switched from travel and leisure to cover living
and health expenses.
Issue – Do our marketing plans reflect global population
change? How can we ensure the region is an attractive
destination for older visitors? How can we ensure a continuous
flow of suitably educated and motivated staff?
Wealthier - Wealth levels are rising globally and the rapid rise of
Asia is generating a new class of wealthy citizens with the desire
to travel. MasterCard suggest that by 2014 there will be over
650M Middle Class households in Asia earning above US$5,000
a year – the threshold above which people tend to travel
abroadxv. They estimate China will have 293M and India 102M
earning at this level. China’s Government estimates that by 2020
at least 100M tourists will visit foreign destinations and generate
US$94Bn in tourist revenuesxvi. In developed countries, property
values rose by US$30 trillion from 2001 to 2005. This new
wealth is driving demand for second properties overseas and
increasing travel flowsxvii.
Impact – Could demand for travel and for second homes ever
outstrip the available supply in the region?
Issue – Given rising numbers at every wealth level, the region’s
players will need to make critical decisions on which sectors of
the market they target. Are airlines, hotels and leisure services
gearing up to serve the needs of the new Asian traveller?
Healthier - The quest for longevity and healthier lifestyles will
be major drivers of travel demand. Medical tourism in India is
forecast to reach $2Bn by 2012. Thailand – a popular market
with Asians and Americans - earns over $850M a year from this
market - forecast to reach $1Bn by 2008xviii. Many countries in
the Middle East are planning to compete in this growing market.
General interest in outdoor and ‘working holidays’ is rising fast.
43% of travellers are likely to go hiking, up from 24% one year
ago, and 39% plan adventure activities like para-sailing and
white-water rafting, up from 29% last year.xix
Impact – Regular health related visits could increase the
duration and frequency of visits if the quality and cost compare
favourably with other heath tourism destinations. The region
may be able to offer more high quality hotel facilities and better
infrastructure than many other destinations.
Issue – Given the cost of equipping and maintaining health
facilities and the competition from other forms of tourism, the
region’s players will need to decide where to focus their
development efforts to maximise the returns.
“Over the past few years, the world's population has
continued on its remarkable transition path from a state
of high birth and death rates to one characterized by
low birth and death rates. At the heart of that transition
has been the growth in the number and proportion of
older persons. Such a rapid, large and ubiquitous growth
has never been seen in the history of civilization.”
Source: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
United Nations Secretariat http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/ageing/agewpop.htm
Future Competition - Alongside existing popular destinations,
a number of new travel alternatives will emerge to compete for
the attention of visitors to and from the region. The world
economic map will look very different in 2020 and by 2050,
nations such as Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria all have the
potential to be amongst the 20 largest xx. Luxury travel and
tourism forms a key part of each of these nation’s development
plans. India and China have already established themselves
as competitor destinations - China could receive more visitors
than Spain by 2010, becoming the second most popular
destination globally.xxi
Impact – Tourists will have increasing levels of choice. Many of
the emerging destinations will place a strong emphasis on local
culture to differentiate their propositions and low wages may
enable them to maintain high staff to customer ratios.
Issue – The region’s destinations will need to identify clear
target market segments and have differentiated propositions.
Sustainable Tourism - The 2007 intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) report confirmed a 90% likelihood that
human actions are warming the planet and thereby increasing
the risk of future flooding and climate related disasters.xxii
At the same time, concerns are increasing over consumption
levels – between three and five planets’ worth of resources could
be required if global consumption levels rose to match those in
Europe and the USAxxiii. Water demand is also a growing concern -
The World Bank estimates that water availability per person in
the Middle East and North Africa is set to drop by half by 2050.
Rising tourist numbers will increase these pressures.
Every US state has passed legislation to reduce the production
of greenhouse gasses and to move towards more sustainable
manufacturing and consumptionxxiv. Governments are beginning to
impose ‘carbon taxes’ on flights emanating from their countries.
While emissions per passenger mile may be lower than other
transport modes, a lot of air travel is considered discretionary
and hence an easy way to target emission reductions.
Impact – The attention being paid to climate change and
sustainability issues is rising fast. A tipping point could soon
be hit where carbon allowances and reduction targets are
imposed on firms and individuals. Future visitor forecasts
and development plans may need to be scaled back and
greater focus put on the environmental footprint of existing
and new developments.
Issue – Can the region respond by establishing global best
practice standards on emissions, energy efficiency and waste?
Human Resources - Over the next 10 years, it is estimated
that across the region over 1.5M new jobs will need to be
created in travel and tourism – possibly more if all current
development plans and proposals are executedxxv.
Global competition is rising both for experienced management
and junior service personnel as both established and emerging
economies compete for this scarce resource.i
Impact – The industry will need long term thinking about how it
will recruit, train, reward and train personnel. Partnerships may
be required with developing nations to establish educational
facilities that act as feeder programmes for future staff.
Issue – Guest workers may find the rewards on offer at home
begin to match those available in the region.
Service Innovation and Excellence - Rising customer
expectations and industry competition are driving up service
benchmarks particularly in high end luxury categories.
Increasingly, standards are being set by developing nations
looking to differentiate themselves. For example Asiana Airlines
of Korea has won Global Traveller’s award for Best Onboard
Service and Flight Attendants for three years running and Korea’s
Incheon Airport has won the Airport Council International’s
Service Quality award for the last two years.
Impact – Competition for the high end leisure traveller will be
intense and customer expectations will be of excellent service
throughout their stay. With most visits to the region lasting less
than five days, the potential for recovery from service lapses
will be limited and the chances of repeat visits will decline.
Issue – How can the Middle East define and sustain new
standards of service in the face of intense global competition?
“Global warming was "very likely" man-made and
would bring higher temperatures and a steady rise in
sea levels for centuries to come regardless of how much
the world slows or reduces its greenhouse gas emissions.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. February 2007
Information Communications Technology (ICT) -Between 2006 and 2012, the cost of processing power is
anticipated to fall sixteen-fold. Technology will increasingly be
leveraged to enhance the customer experience before, during
and after a trip. Integrated systems between airports, airlines
and hotels will enable travellers to provide their data once only
during a visit, eliminate check-in and enhance security.
Multilingual ‘digital concierges’ could provide a personalised
single customer interface across multiple providers throughout
the travel experiencexiii. Virtual reality and gaming technologies
will enable travellers to see and experience a travel destination
prior to purchase. Wearable technologies - Chip implants and
RFID will allow the tracking of people and luggage. Robotic
assistants are already being used in caring for the elderly in
Japan and could increasingly be used for everything from hotel
butlers to service staff on low cost carriers. Additionally, 3D
virtual technology has the capacity to provide a substitute for
travel for meetings and leisure, particularly if sustainability
concerns begin to curtail discretionary travel. The impact will be
most notable in the business sector.
Impact – ICT will transform the travel experience and shape
user expectations. Advanced technology solutions will be
considered an essential component of any high end offering.
Issue – Is the region developing a sufficiently strong ICT
education and service sector to meet future demand?
Aviation Efficiency and Performance - IATA claims new
aircraft are 70% more efficient than 40 years ago and 20%
better than a decade ago. The industry has set a goal of
increasing fuel efficiency by a further 50% by 2020.xiii Boeing’s
Dreamliner and the Airbus A380 will make high and low
volume non-stop long-haul flights feasible to any destination.
Supersonic technology could reduce flight times from Dubai
to London to 4 hours by 2015 and hypersonic flight could
reduce it to under 2 hours by 2020. Many manufacturers are
working on hypersonic propositions and Virgin Galactic believes
it would take ten years and cost at least $2Bn to develop.xxvi
Impact – The region’s combined buying power could be
leveraged to drive even higher standards of performance
and efficiency from suppliers. Supersonic and hypersonic
travel will create new ‘weekend break’ markets. Shorter term
developments with the Dreamliner and A380 may challenge
the viability of hub strategies.
Issue – Will aviation developments enhance or challenge
the region’s positioning as a gateway to Asia?
Security - On security matters, the region suffers from a
collective identity in a way that others don’t. For example,
the tensions in Myanmar, Thailand and the Philippines have
not led to discussions of ‘security issues in Asia’ or resulted in
visitors staying away from other countries in Asia.
Impact – The region will need concerted action to address the
risk of adverse travel advisories and deal with security anxieties
over terrorism, inter-state conflict and personal safety.
Issue – Should the region shift its focus towards markets which
take a more balanced view of threats in the region
Bus services couldlink Dubai, Oman,Bahrain, SaudiArabia and Jordan,Qatar, Kuwait,Egypt and Syria.
10%Global TourismIndustry is of world GDP
Approximately$1 trillion ofinfrastructureinvestment inpipeline in GCC.
LAUNCH OFAIR ARABIA-MIDDLE EAST’SFIRST LOW-COST CARRIER.
MIDDLE EAST FORECASTTO HAVE 6 OF THE 20COUNTRIES WITH THEHIGHEST PROJECTEDPASSENGER GROWTH
N U M B E R O F A I R L I N E V I S I TO R S
G R E W B Y 7 % D U R I N G 2 0 0 6 TO 2 6 M I L L I O N .
SAUDI BEGINS $5.3BNWATER BANK PROJECT
RETAJ AL RAYYAN HOTELOPENS IN DAFNA, QATAR
LAUNCH OF NAS AND SAMA BUDGETAIRLINES IN SAUDI ARABIA.
FIRST SPACE TOURISM
EASYHOTEL.COM TO OPEN FIRST BUDGET HOTELIN KUWAIT
2007
The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020
Syria visitorsfrom The Gulfrise 12%
BAHRAIN
PASSENGER
TRAFFIC UP 21%
20M CHINESEOUTBOUND TOURISTS IN 2003, 31M IN 2005
KUWAIT AIRPORT TO HANDLE 1OM PASSENGERS
DUBAI ANNOUNCES$80BN+ AEROSPACEINVESTMENT PROGRAM
Completion ofworld’s largestbuilding Burj Dubai
Turkey announces plansto launch touristsubmarine by 2009
IPCC announces 90% chancehumans causing global warming
Qatar,The Pearl is a US$27 billion man-madeisland covering 985 acresof reclaimed land offshore.Open in 2007
Dubai tourists:6m in 2006
Lebanon2006touristlossesestimatedat $1Bn
Completion of HydropolisUndersea Hotel in Dubai 2007
Up to 80 new hotels onArabian peninsula by2008
Opening ofJordan‘s Ammanand AqabaConferenceCentresby 2009
Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen
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9
80m RegionalTourists
Dubai Metroopens 2009
Q ATA R TO C O M P L E T E $ 1 3 0 B NI N F R A S T R U C T U R E I N V E S T M E N T
OPENING OF KUWAIT’S $3.3BnFAILAKA ISLAND RESORT
DUBAI TOURISM SECTOR COULD EMPLOY100,000BY 2010
Abu Dhabi’s Yas island tohost Formula one
40 ABU DHABI HOTELS ANDRESORTS TO BE BUILT
A B U D H A B I T O
I N T R O D U C E
G R E E N D I E S E L
RAS-AL-KHAIMAH TOURIST NUMBERS 100,000
COMPLETION OF FUJIARAHPARADISE AND RAS-AL-KHAIMAH’SAL MARJAN ISLAND DEVELOPMENTS
U P TO 3 2 0 M A D D I T I O N A L
PA S S E N G E R S I N M E B Y 2 0 1 2 .
$27BN BAWADI HOSPITALITYAND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT TO OPEN BY 2010
2010
of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020
S y r i a t a r g e t s 7 M v i s i t o r s b y 2 0 1 0
COMPLETIONS OFTHE THREE PALMS
DEVELOPMENTS BY 2009
First phase of Bahrain International Airport expansion tocomplete by 2010 - raising capacity to 15M passengers
The $350 million GrandEgyptian Museum - the world’slargest - will open in 2010 andattract up to 5M visitors annually
Dubai governmentforecast 15 milliontourists/year
Completion by 2009of Gulf’s biggest Dam in Oman.
UAE will add55,000 more hotelrooms by 2012
Abu Dhabi’s Louvrebranch is expected toopen in 2012.
Turkey’s 2010 Vision to increase tourists from 14 to 30million, income from 12 to 30 billion (US$) and todouble employment to 3M people
Regional hotel bed nights are forecast to increase by 35%to 387 million by 2010
Qatar takes delivery of first A380 and opens 1st phase of New Doha International Airport
Completion of The World development inDubai 2010
Up to $3 Trillion GCC Infrastructureinvestment underway by 2010
The Iran government
plans to build 100
more hotels by 2010.
ar Oman Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen
OPENING OF NEW 20M PASSENGER ABU DHABI AIRPORT
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Virtual Travel
OPENING OF BAHRAIN-QATAREXPRESS LINK.
World economy to grow 80% by 2020.
200 SPA LOCATIONS IN DUBAI
ABU DHABI TARGETS 3M VISITORS BY 2015
DOHA INTERNATIONALAIRPORT COMPLETED
OMAN WAVE BEACHFRONT PROJECT COMPLETE
2015
m in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020
Yemenia Airwaysto start takingdelivery of 6new AirbusA350’s in 2012.
OPENING OF DUBAI JEBEL ALI ASWORLD’S LARGEST AIRPORT - 70M PASSENGERS BY 2016, EXPECTEDTO BE OPERATIONAL 2017 ANDULTIMATELY CAPABLE OF HANDLING 120M PASSENGERS
Larger than Monaco,Dubailand completed in 2020.Opening in 2010 it will employ300,000 people in the variousjoylands, servicing15 million visitors.
Egypt plans todouble numberof tourists by 2014.
RAS-AL-KHAIMAH 2.7BNWATERFRONT DEVELOPMENTCOMPLETE
AIRBUS PREDICTS ME PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO
GROW 7.1% ANNUALLY TO 2015 AND
THEN 5.2% UNTIL 2025.
Digital concierges could manage ourentire travel experience by 2015
Abu Dhabi,The Emirates PearlIsland Project US $27Bn manmade island. 29 hotels, 1 is 7*,completes 2018
Completion of the US$ 3.3 billionUmm Al Quwain Marina project by 2015
Egypt’s $16BnGamsha Baydevelopment tocomplete by 2017
‘Emirates Airline’ could own 10% of Longhaul
17
18
19
20
21
23
24
22
3Hypersonic Travel by 2020
Worldtourism market could
TRIPLEME PASSENGER FLEET
COULD RISE TO 1195
AIRCRAFT BY 2025.
ROBOTIC HOTEL STAFFWILL BE COMMON FLOODING
RESULTING
FROM CLIMATE
CHANGE COULD
DISPLACE 200M.
WATER AVAILABILITY INMIDDLE EAST AND NORTHAFRICA TO DROP BY HALF BY 2050.
MUTILINGUAL,CONVERSATIONALINTERFACES COULDREPLACE KEYBOARDS.
NUMBER OF TOURISTS EXPECTED TO REACH150 MILLION BY 2020
OMAN TARGETS OMANISATION RATE
(NO. OF LOCALS EMPLOYED) OF 50% BY
2020 IN TOURISM SECTOR
I R A N T A R G E T S2 5 M V I S I T O R S
2020
- A Vision to 2020Global POPULATIONTO REACH 8Bn
GLOBAL TOURISTARRIVALS TOREACH OVER1.56BN BY 2020.
100M CHINESEOUTBOUNDTOURISTS
By 2050 humans will need at least twoplanets' worth of natural resources to live asthey do now.
AIRCRAFT 50% MORE FUEL EFFICIENT
Dubai forecast to
double number of
tourists by 2022
Global Futuresand Foresight
By 2027 Middle East Airlines will buy 870 aircraft.
Dubai International Airport projectedto be handling up to 100Mpassengers per year by 2025
Saudi targets2M non-Haj andUmrah visitorsby 2020
Oman’s 2M tourist capacity $15Bn Blue City development to becompleted by 2026.
27
26
25
Travel and Tourism plans across theregion to 2020The Region’s forecasts suggest annual travel and tourism
revenues could increase 89% over the next ten years.
The Personal and Business Travel sectors are both set to
double in sizexxvii. At the same time, capital investment of over
$3 Trillion will fund a massive growth in infrastructure and
accommodation.i The regions airlines will buy 870 aircraft
by 2027xxviii. Travel and tourism is expected to create over
1.5m new jobs, equivalent to 60% of the total United Arab
Emirates’ population.
The World Tourism & Travel Council estimate World Travel &
Tourism Demand at US$6,477bn for 2006 and forecast growth to
US$12,119bn by 2016. Travel & Tourism in the Middle East is
estimated at US$148bn in 2006 and forecast to rise to
US$279Bn by 2016. Middle East Personal Travel & Tourism is
estimated to account for US$42bn or 9.4% of total personal
consumption in 2006 and to rise to US$92.7Bn - 10.2% of total
consumption by 2016. Business Travel is expected to rise from
US$13.7bn in 2006 to US$28.4bn by 2016.i
Bahrain plans to double tourism income over the next seven
years under an ambitious plan which aims to generate 10% of
GDP from the sector by 2014xxix. The strategy position’s Bahrain
as a ‘boutique’ destination in the Gulf, showcasing its unique
history, culture and heritage, focusing on family and business
tourism and hosting major events. Last year’s Formula One race
alone generated almost $400 million in direct income to the
kingdom’s businesses and traders, almost three per cent
of GDPxxx. The first phase of Bahrain International Airport’s
planned expansion ending in 2010 will raise capacity to 15
million passengersxxxi. Key developments include a US$34m
health resort for elderly people and the $1bn Amwaj Islands
due for completion by the end of 2007xxxii.
Egypt attracted 9.1m visitors in 2006xxxiii and is targeting 16M by
2014xxxiv. Egypt and Turkey have developed a project to jointly
host tourists from various countries and US$60 million has been
allocated to promote Egypt in other countries, with US$40 million
of this for advertisingxxxv. Key developments include the US$350
million Grand Egyptian Museum - the world’s largest with around
150,000 artefacts and expected to attract five million visitors
annually when it opens in 2010xxxvi. The US$16.3bn Gamsha Bay
project will be built over ten years to provide hotels, 15,000
residential units and villas, townhouses, an 18-hole golf course
and a marinaxxxvii.
Iran had the highest regional GDP from the T&T sector in 2005
with US$ 8,380Mxxxviii. It received 1.5 million visitors in 2005 and
has a target of 5M by 2010 and 25M by 2025iii. Government
plans to invest 50bn Rials ($5.4M) and the private sector
250,000bn Rials in tourismxxxix covering the development of 100
hotels including 7 star offerings. Qeshm International Airport is to
be extended to handle 1 million passengers by 2015xl. Iran plans
to use its cost advantages to build up health tourism from other
Arab statesxli.
Jordan’s National Tourism strategy is designed to increase
tourism receipts from JD570 million in 2003 to JD 1.3bn
(US$ 1.84bn) by 2010 - creating over 51,000 new jobsxlii.
The government will focus on several niche markets including
cultural tourism, MICE and adventure and religious travel. Key
developments include the 32,000 sq. m. Amman Exhibitions
Park. The US$1bn Ayla Oasis project on the Dead Sea will
include 5 upmarket hotels, a marina and golf coursexliii.
The airline market is being opened up to competition and Royal
Jordanian Airlines aims to start taking delivery of 8 new 787-8
Dreamliners in 2010xliv.
Kuwait’s 20-year tourism strategy includes the aim of driving
5% growth in employment in the hotel, travel and tourism
sectorxlv. Part of Kuwait’s 2020 tourism master plan is the
creation of a major tourist resort on Failaka Island, 20 km
off the coast of Kuwait City, in the Persian Gulf. Important
archaeological sites have been uncovered on the island,
including the Ikarus and Azuk temple sites, which will be
open to visitors. The island’s 24 miles of coastline will consist
of US$3.3bn of hotels, shops, residences, a golf course
and restaurantsxlvi.
Lebanon was anticipating record growth and over US$4bn in
tourism revenue and investment in 2006 but now estimates
losses at US$1bnxlvii. Visitor numbers in January 2007 were
down 39%xlviii. Actions being considered by government include
long term loans and tax relief for tourism operators and a fund
to help pay workers' wagesxlix.
Oman’s Vision 2020 includes delivering $1bn of tourism
revenues by 2020 (3-5% of GDP)l, a new marketing strategy,
mobilising the private and foreign sector to develop and promote
sustainable tourism and an Omanisation rate of 50% within the
industryli. Oman plans to grow markets such as adventure
tourism. As part of regional expansion, Oman Air will add two
Boeing 737-800s and start flights from Muscat to Damascus,
Lucknow and Jaipur in 2007lii. Key projects include ‘The Wave’ –
a US$1bn 6 km beachfront tourism and residential project to
be completed by 2012liii and the US$15-20bn ‘Blue City’
34 sq km development at Al Sawadi that will absorb and serve
up to two million tourists a yearliv. In September last year, Oman
made public its intention to build the Gulf's biggest damlv.
Qatar is investing US$15bn in hotels, museums and theme
parks and aims to triple tourist arrivals per year to 1.4 million by
2010 and increase the average stay from 1.5 to four days.
Qatar’s strategy is to excel in niche market tourism, so as to
make the sector sustainable in Qatar’s overall economylvi.
Hence it wants to become state-of-the-art in medical tourism and
position Doha as a luxury short-stay, leisure and business travel
destination. Qatar will have 40 new hotels by 2009lvii – including
the Hotel Khalifa, a palatial building designed to look like a
French chateau and a 360 room environmentally friendly hotel in
Dafna, North of Doha.
The US$2.5bn ‘Pearl’ man-made 985 acre island development
will include three deluxe hotelslviii.
Phase 1 of the New Doha International Airport will open in 2009
– with a capacity of 12M passengers at a cost of US$2.5bn.
By 2015 a $5.5bn extension will increase the airport’s capacity
to 50M passengerslix. Qatar Airways will be an A380 launch
customer – taking delivery of the first of its four A380s in 2009xliv
and will also buy 80 Airbus A350XWB wide bodied jets.vi
Saudi Arabia’s Supreme Commission for Tourism plans a tourist
development fund to provide loans for tourist projectslx. This will
focus on opportunities for the family tourist, cultural heritage,
environmental attractions, health, shopping and adventure
sports. The aim is to attract up to US$50bn in investment
including foreign fundslxi. Two private airlines Sama and National
Air Services (NAS) are entering the low-cost domestic airline
sector estimated to number at least 10 million people.
Saudi Arabia is investing US$4.8bn to build more terminals
at Jeddah’s King Abdul Aziz Airportlxiii.
Syria aims to double annual visitors to 7m by 2010 and
generate an income of US$5bn. Government will open offices
abroad to promote tourism and attract sector investment lxiv.
Investment levels are being raised to US$1bn for 2007lxv,
with multiple projects in progress including a US$200M resort
and a range of service quality improvementslxvi.
Turkey’s Vision 2010 aims to increase tourists from 14M
in 2003 to 30M million by 2010, raise tourist income from
US$11.9bn to US$30bn and double tourism employment from
1.5M to 3Mlxvii. The tourist ministry's new strategy “aims to
attract upscale tourists who have a higher potential for spending”
– with particular emphasis on US visitorslxviii. The Ministry of
Culture and Tourism has announced 150 planned restoration
and conservation-oriented projects to restore the "lifeblood"
of dozens of historical sites across Turkeylxix. Plans have been
announced to launch a US$1.3M tourist submarine within
2 years capable of carrying 50,000 passengers annuallylxx.
Popula
tion
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Popu
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in698,5
85
880,0
00
12.1
241,0
00
62,0
00
5,0
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00
9,0
82,0
00
3880.4
5521.8
7,0
00
12,0
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23.6
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42.2
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214.5
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193.5
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514.1
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00,0
00
84.5
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78.5
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00.0
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68,6
88,4
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00,0
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00
885,0
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7 m
illio
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y2020
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889.1
2.5
74,6
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8,8
78.9
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58
86,7
00,0
00
358.2
644,0
00
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00
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22,4
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(2010 e
st)
30 m
illio
n b
y2010
4,2
00.0
08,8
28.1
02.9
20.2
50.2
928.1
838.0
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ion b
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018,2
15.0
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88
32,7
00,0
00
15.1
690,0
00
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214.9
390
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2 m
illio
n in
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452.4
859.5
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211
4.3
34
3.9
83.6
51.5
5
Countr
y
United Arab Emirates
Abu Dhabi’s US $136bn investment in developing business
and tourism assets is intended to help increase visitor numbers
from 1.35M in 2006 to 3M by 2015.lxxi Tourism investment worth
US$11bn is expected in the next 10 years. The total value of
announced and on-going projects in Abu Dhabi is close to
Dh1 trillion ($272bn)lxxii. A US$230M project to transform
Abu Dhabi International Airport into a Middle Eastern hub and
handle 20 million passengers a year will complete by 2010.
Etihad is positioning itself as a top end airline and won the
World Travel Award for the world’s leading new airline.ii 40 private
sector hotels and resorts will be built by 2010lxxiii.
Government estimates that available rooms will rise to 25,000
by 2015 from 11,500 in 2006lxii. A focus on cultural tourism will
create four museums including a Guggenheim, Art Centre and
a Louvre branch due to open in 2012lxxiv.
Ajman has a 10 year investment program to boost the economy
and tourism and build roads, transport infrastructure and a
metro link to Dubailxxv. A private sector development partner
has been appointed and work has begun on new sewage
infrastructurelxxvi. After initiating US$7bn of investments in
2004 and 2005, the emirate plans four major property
projects including the US$2bn 'Ajman Marina'.lxvi
Dubai’s Strategic Plan 2015 aims to maintain double-digit GDP
growth, to deliver US$108bn and per capita GDP of US$44,000
by 2015lxxvii. By 2010, the aim is for 15M business and leisure
visitors to contribute 20% of GDPlxxviii. Developments in the
pipeline stretch out to 2020 and should deliver 80,000 hotel
rooms by 2010 with 100,000 people employed in the sectorlxxix.
Major developments underway include the Crescent Hydropolis
Resort - the world’s first luxury underwater hotel – due to open
in 2007lxxx and the US$1.8bn World project – a collection of
300 man-made islands modelled on the continents and due
for completion in 2010lxxxi.
The Burj Dubai opens in 2008 and will be the world’s tallest
building. The US$14bn Palms developments will complete in
2009 to create three man-made palm-shaped islands offering
residential and tourism developmentslxxxii. The Dubailand leisure
park will offer entertainment and hospitality on a site bigger than
Singaporelxxxiii. The US$27bn Bawadi hospitality and tourism
project will create a 10Km strip running through Dubailand
including construction of the world's largest hotellxxxiv.
Expansion plans for Dubai International Airport could see it
handle 70-100M passengers by 2025lxxxv. The new Jebel Ali
Airport is planned to handle up to 120M passengers and
to become the world’s largest airportlxxxvi. Emirates plans to
take delivery of up to 45 Airbus A380slxxxvii.
Fujairah is investing around Dh3bn over five years to grow
visitor numbers.lxiv Key developments include the Radisson
Al Aqah Beach Resort and the Fujairah Paradise residential
and tourism complex – both due to open in 2009lxxxviii.
Ras-al-Khaimah plans to attract leisure and industrial sector
investment of Dh50Bn (US$14bn) to quadruple tourists by 2010
to 100,000lxxxix. Key developments include the Dh2.9bn
Al Marjan Island - a hotel, marina and luxury villa complex due
to complete by 2011xc.
Sharjah has grown tourism from 400,000 to over 1M over
three yearsxci and is keen to drive it higher. A major contributor
is Air Arabia – the region’s first low cost carrier that flew 1.76M
passengers in 2006 to deliver a 222% increase in net profits to
US$27.5Mxcii. A US$62M expansion project is designed to
increase the capacity of Sharjah airport to 8M passengers a
year The US$18bn Al Nuojoom ‘Stars’ Islands project will
complete in five phases by 2010 to deliver hotel resorts,
a golf course, shopping complexes and residential areas.xciii
Umm Al Quwain’s development plan includes selected
tourism growth and building an airport to receive all airlines
operating in the regionxciv. The Imar Spa offers Overnight Spa
Escape packages aimed at Dubai’s female residentsxcv.
The US$3.3bn Umm Al Quwain Marina project will provide
over 8,000 homes, boutique hotels, retail and leisure facilities
in a marina-themed environmentxcvi.
Yemen attracts 350,000 tourists annuallyxcvii and more than 10
world-class hotels and resorts are being built to keep pace with
tourism demandxcviii. Yemenia Airways has announced plans to
buy six Airbus A350s with options on four more with deliveries
starting in 2012xcix.
Document References and Sources
i Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States – 31st January 2007
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690
ii WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf
iii Accor Presentation – Approach to the Middle Easter TravelMarket – Presentation to Trends and Challenges in Middle EastTravel Conference - Feb 20th-21st 2007
iv Mideast air traffic to grow 7% - March 7th 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112907.html
v Global Futures and Foresight analysis of publishedannouncements
vi Emerging Qatar 2005 – Oxford Business Grouphttp://www.atypon-link.com/OXF/doi/abs/10.5555/erqa.2005.2.Emerging_Qatar_2005.113?journalCode=erqa
vii New Aviation Developments -http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896
viii WHO Issues Alert Over Flu Pandemic Fears – January 21st 2005http://www.agobservatory.org/headlines.cfm?refID=44593
ix Factors Inside and Outside the Water Sector DriveMena’s Water Outcomes – World Bankhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/01-Chap01-Scarcity.pdf
x Dancing with Giants - China, India, and the Global Economyhttp://lysander.worldbank.catchword.org/vl=3936701/cl=14/nw=1/rpsv/home.htm
xi Goldman Sachs Analysis http://www.gs.com
xii World Population to 2300 – UN Population Division – 2004http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
xiii Future Traveller Tribes 2020 – Henley Centre Headlight Visionwith Amadeus -http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/TravellerTribes.pdf
xiv Six key states push world to 9bn people - The Guardian –March 1st 2001http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,,444709,00.html
xv ANALYSIS-Asian economies feel the growing beat of tourismhttp://www.investsmartindia.com/IIL_NEW/Home/Reutersnewsdts.aspx?storyid=1163142795nSP135200&cat=others
xvi Growth Markets
www.corporate.visitlondon.com/ems/images/2emerging_preso.pdf
xvii Economics Review – South West of England RegionalDevelopment Agency - August 2005http://download.southwestrda.org.uk/file.asp?File=/other/quarterly-economic-reports/economics-review-third-quarter-august-2005.pdf
xviii Asia health tourism to reach $4bn - 1st April 2007http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=HEAL&artid=121180
xix Traveller Trends for 2007 TripAdvisorhttp://www.ntaonline.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=19&url_subchannel_id=&url_article_id=3276&change_well_id=2
xx Goldman Sachs analysis http://www.gs.com
xxi UNWTO: China set to surpass Spain by 2010 – January 30th 2007http://www.travelwirenews.com/cgi-script/csArticles/articles/000108/010836.htm
xxii Climate Change 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/
xxiii One Planet Living Campaign - World Wildlife Fundwww.wwf.org.uk/oneplanet
xxiv WorldWatch Institute www.worldwatch.org/
xxv WTTC – Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to NewHeights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf
xxvi Hypersonic Rocket Would Take You from London to New York in Less Than Two Hourshttp://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253620,00.html
xxvii WTTC – Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf
xxviii United Kingdom: Executive Report – The Magazine For TheTourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two – Deloitte –January 11th 2007http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510
xxix Ambitious plan - Bahrain – March 6th 2007http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093145377
xxx Bahrain seeks ‘boutique’ tourism positioning – November 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=268&Section=786&Article=6017
xxxi Travel and Tourism in Bahrain – December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Bahrain
xxxii $34m health resort for elderly – December 23rd 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/106488.html
xxxiii TOURISM: The new age of big, integrated resorts - December11 2006http://www.ft.com/cms/s/53d905a0-839a-11db-9e95-0000779e2340,dwp_uuid=05212dda-8542-11db-b12c-0000779e2340.html
xxxiv More Arabs, Americans visiting Egypt – September 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Section=762&Article=5827
xxxv Egypt hoping to cooperate with Turkey in tourism – February 2nd 2007http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=103350
xxxvi Egypt puts culture on the agenda – September 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Section=762&Article=5829
xxxvii Damac $16.3bn Red Sea resort – December 6th 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/104441.html
xxxviii Bahrain Airport Statistics - November 2006http://www.bahrainairport.com/air_stati/air_stati_2006_nov.htm
xxxix World Tourism Organization Supports Iran Tourism Industry –February 7th 2007http://eng.chtn.ir/newsShow.aspx?ID=646
xl Airport Development News – Momberger Airport Informationwww.airports.org/aci/aci/file/ADN%20-%20Momberger/ACI-ADN%20Dec%202005.pdf
xli Health Ministry Taking Health Tourism Seriously – 20th ofFebruary 2007http://eng.chtn.ir/newsShow.aspx?ID=689
xlii http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/13/10103864.html,http://www.tourism.jo/inside/Strategy.asp
xliii Jordan Ministry of Tourism http://www.visitjordan.com
xliv Jordanian close to Dreamliner deal – March 1st 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112238.html
xlv Jordan Ministry of Tourism http://www.visitjordan.com
xlvi Government looks to step up sector – November 9th 2006www.unitedworld-usa.com/reports/kuwait2006/tourism.asp
xlvii Lebanese bridge repaired – March 3rd 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112293.html
xlviii Lebanon's tourism concerns – March 21st 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/114251.html
xlix Lebanon's tourism to get aid – Mach 8th 2007 -http://www.ameinfo.com/112990.html
l Oman’s action plan – May 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5503&Section=715&IssueID=262
li Oman Opportunities – Meepashttp://www.meepas.com/Omanopportunities.htm
lii Oman Air, three new routes in 2007 – December 12 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/105070.htm
liii New Doha Airport focus of Key Presentation at Airport Build andSupply Exhibition & Conference in New Delhi – February 14 2005www.asiatraveltips.com/news05/142-Airport.shtml
liv Qatar Airways to buy 80 A350s – March 15 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/113690.html
lv Forced to Look Beyond Desalination Plants – March 27th 2007http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=37013
lvi Tourism sector set to generate $148bn in Middle East this year- 10/30/2006http://www.ifpqatar.com/News_show_news.asp?id=2691
lvii Is Qatar the Next Dubai? – June 4th 2006http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/travel/04qatar.html?ex=1156996800&en=f1fef39c4eb9dd3d&ei=5070
lviii QATAR: Major Developmentshttp://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1897
lix Premium terminal leads Doha’s new services – February 2007http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6230&Section=820&IssueID=271
lx Consumer Lifestyles – Saudi Arabia. The Economist IntelligenceUnit, 22.1, Para 1 www.eiu.com
lxi Consumer Lifestyles – Saudi Arabia. The Economist IntelligenceUnit, 22.1, Para 1 www.eiu.com
lxii Saudia Propels a New Era in Civil Aviation – December 2006http://www.arabnews.com/?page=15§ion=0&article=89622&d=17&m=2&y=2007
lxiii $4.8bn investment for Jeddah airport – February 2007http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=271&Section=820&Article=6235
lxiv Syria spends up on tourism – October 5th 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/98190.html
lxv ‘We played a crucial role’ – October 2006http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5927&Section=774&IssueID=267
lxvi Qatar to develop Syria tourism complex - February 19, 2007http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070219-011730-7033r
lxvii 2010 Tourism Vision of Turkey - Ministry of Tourism and Culturehttp://www.kulturturizm.gov.tr/genel/galeri/vizyon-eng/index.htm
lxviii Turkey lassos US religious and health tourists - Thursday, February 22, 2007http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=66681
lxix Culture and Tourism Ministry to pour ‘lifeblood’ back intoTurkey’s historical – February 22nd 2007 siteshttp://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=103467&bolum=110
lxx Tourism Development Regions – Ministry of Tourism and Culturehttp://www.kultur.gov.tr/genel/text/tr/YIGM/turizmkentleri/eng/index.htm
lxxi Abu Dhabi Ministry of Tourismwww.uae.gov.ae/Government/tourism.htm
lxxii Abu Dhabi projects worth close to Dh1tr – February 3rd 2007http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/13/10103864.html
lxxiii UAE TOURISM ATTRACTS WORLD TRAVELLERS - 8 March – 2006http://www.khaleejtimes.com/TravelInsideNew.asp?xfile=data/travel/2006/March/travel_March5.xml§ion=travel&col=
lxxiv Abu Dhabi vies for spot on tourism map - January 30, 2007http://timesofoman.com/inner_cat.asp?cat=4&detail=2759&rand=kqfnhhZXarImP15jHCjR62dETv
lxxv Ajman gets a further $13 billion for investment - 6 February 2007 http://www.mideast-construction.com/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1527&Itemid=55
lxxvi The Ruler Of Ajman, His Highness Sheikh Humaid Bin RashidAl Nuaimi, Undertakes Groundbreaking To Start Work On Dhs 515 Million Ajman Sewerage Project – 25 February 2003www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20030226071135
lxxvii Dubai Strategic Plan - 2015 unveiled – February 4th 2007http://www.menareport.com/en/business,Economy_and_Trade/209211
lxxviii Doing Business in the DIFChttp://www.difc.ae/operating/index.html
lxxix Dubai Hotel Workforce to Triple by 2010http://business.maktoob.com/news_briefs_inside.asp?id=20060907134116&h=1
lxxx Hydropolis Underwater Hotel, Dubai, United Arab Emirates –September 2005http://www.designbuild-network.com/projects/Hydropolis/
lxxxi Property Developments: Dubai: The World Islandshttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/world_islands.php
lxxxii Property Developments: Dubai: Burj Dubai (Downtown Dubai)http://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/burj_dubai.php
lxxxiii Transcity: Dubai's Urbanism by numbershttp://transcity.eu/main/article/5/dubais-urbanism-by-numbers
lxxxiv Property Developments: Dubai: Dubailandhttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/dubailand.php
lxxxv Dubai investing $81bn in aviation projects – October 2006http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5922&Section=773&IssueID=267
lxxxvi Dubai - Overview:http://www.usatoday.com/marketplace/ibi/dubai.htm
lxxxvii Airbus customers could find A380 delays costly – July 2006www.iht.com/articles/2006/06/16/business/order.php
lxxxviii Dh2b Fujairah resort lures tourists – 5th March 2006http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/atm/more_stories/10037279.html
lxxxix Ras Al Khaimah seeks $13bn investment 16 February 2007http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8102:ras-al-khaimah-seeks-13bn-investment&Itemid=78
xc Project watch – February 2007http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6246&Section=822&IssueID=271
xci www.sharjah-welcome.com/html/more_news.php?id=2891
xcii The Emirate of Sharjah moves towards the 5th GCC RoadShow – May 14th 2006http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20070214102502/SecCountries/pagUAE/chnUAE%20Analysis/obj13F83D09-8988-11D5-867E00D0B74A0D7C/
xciii Sharjah’s got more than you know- October 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5921&Section=773&IssueID=267
xciv Development Plan for UAQ Approved – February 12 2007http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20070212044309
xcv Ladies-only spa at Umm Al Quwain - 5 March 2007http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8896
xcvi PROJECT-Umm Al Quwain: UMM AL QUWAIN MARINA –December 2006http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=11705960
xcvii Yemeni government criticized for not promoting tourism - 31st January 2007http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1020&p=local&a=3
xcviii Business in brief – March 1st 2007http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1029&p=business&a=2
xcix Yemenia buys six A350s – March 13 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/80185.html
Chart and Timeline References and Sources
Charts
Figure 1 WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports -http://www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php
Government Figures - Sourced from Tourist Ministry Goals andpress releases
Figure 2GFF derived figuresWTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports -http://www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php
Figure 3 WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports -http://www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Accounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php
Timeline
1) Launch of Air-Arabia – Middle East’s first low-cost carrierWTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf
2) Approximately $1 trillion of infrastructure in pipeline in GCCBeyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States – 31st January 2007http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690
3) Bahrain passenger traffic up 21% Bahrain Airport Statistics - November 2006http://www.bahrainairport.com/air_stati/air_stati_2006_nov.htm
4) Middle East forecast to have 6 of the 20 countries with thehighest projected passenger growth Budget carriers set for growth – March 13th 2007http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=TTN&artid=120367
5) Lebanon 2006 tourist losses estimated at $1bn Lebanese bridge repaired– March 3rd 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/112293.htm
6) Global tourism industry is 10% of world GDPGlobal Travel and Tourism Exceeded $6 trillion in 2005 – March 6th 2007http://www.wttc.org/eng/News_and_Events/Press/Press_Releases_2006/Global_travel_exceeded_USD_6_trillion_in_2005/index.php
7) Kuwait airport to handle 10m passengers Travel and Tourism in Kuwait– December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait
8) Bus services could link Dubai, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabiaand Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and SyriaTourism earns Dh97b revenue – March 8 2007http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Tourism_and_Travel/10109541.html
9) Launch of NAS and SAMA budget airlines in Saudi ArabiaNew Routes To Profit?- Dec 10 2006http://www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1568461,00.html
10) Dubai tourists 6m in 2006WTTC – Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heightswww.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf
11) Number of airline visitors grew by 7% during 2006to 26 millionWTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf
12) 20 million Chinese outbound tourists in 2003,31 million in 2005The prospects for China as a source market - November 07, 2006http://www.traveldailynews.com/new.asp?newid=33550&subcategory_id=95
13) Turkey announces plans to launch tourist submarine by 2009Tourism Development Regions - Ministry of Culture and Tourism http://www.kultur.gov.tr/genel/text/tr/YIGM/turizmkentleri/eng/index.htm
14) Completion of Hydropolis underwater hotel in Dubai in 2007Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/
15) Dubai announces $80 billion+ aerospace investment programDubai to invest over $80 billion in airport infrastructure – October 2006http://www.sbac.co.uk/community/cms/content/preview/nl.asp?p=2481&pp=37&txtSearchPhrase
16) Syria visitors from the gulf rise 12%More GCC tourists to Syria – April 29 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/84353.html
17) Qatar, The Pearl is a US $27 billion man-made islandcovering 985 acres of reclaimed land offshore. Open in 2007.Major Developments QATARhttp://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1897
18) Retaj Al Rayyan Hotel opens in Dafna, QatarEco-friendly hotel to open in Qatar – November 17 2006http://www.dubaiinside.com/detailnews.asp?refno=1031
19) IPCC announces 90% chance humans causing global warmingClimate Change 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/
20) First space tourismHypersonic Rocket Would Take You From London to New York inLess Than Two Hours - February 21, 2007http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253620,00.html
21) Completion of world’s largest building Burj DubaiDubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/
22) Saudi begins $ 3.5bn water bank projectMarket of the Month: Saudi Arabia – March 2007http://www.export.gov/articles/Saudi_MoM.asp
23) Easyhotel.com to open to open first budget hotel in KuwaitTravel And Tourism in Kuwait – December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait
24) Up to 80 new hotels on Arabian peninsula by 2008Red Hot Middle East!http://www.hospitalitynet.org/indepth/154000357/112000417.search?query=what+percentage+of+middle+east+tourism+is+business+related%3f
25) Opening of Jordan’s Amman and Aqaba Conference Centresby 2009Reaching east, reaching west – May 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5499&Section=714&IssueID=262
26) Completion by 2009 of Gulf’s biggest dam in OmanConstruction of Gulf’s biggest dam – 30 September 2006http://www.omanaccess.com/greatdeals/admin_great_deals.asp?category=General
27) Dubai metro opens in 2009Two more bridges by 2009 to ease Dubai traffic – June 6th 2006http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/trafficwatch/New_roads/10045293.html
28) Abu Dhabi to introduce green dieselAbu Dhabi progresses toward introduction of green diesel as fuel– 24th January 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/108612.html
29) First phase of Bahrain International Airport expansioncomplete by 2010 – raising capacity to 15m passengersTravel and Tourism in Bahrain – December 2006http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Bahrain
30) Regional hotel bed nights are forecast to increase by 35% to387 million by 2010WTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf
31) Opening of Kuwait’s $3.3bn Failaka island resortTravel and Tourism in Kuwait - December 2006 http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait
32) Dubai government forecast 15 million tourists/yearDubai WTM 2006 – November 2006www.antor.com/Dubai/Dubai_November_2006.pdf
33) Completion of the three Palms developments by 2009Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketinghttp://www.dubaitourism.ae/
34) Qatar takes delivery of first A380 and opens 1st phase ofNew Doha International AirportNew Aviation Developments http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896
35) The $350 million Grand Egyptian Museum – the world’slargest – will open in 2010 and attract up to 5m visitors annuallyEgypt puts culture on the agenda – September 2006http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Section=762&Article=5829
36) Dubai tourism sector could employ 100,000 by 2010Dubai Hotel Workforce to Triple by 2010http://business.maktoob.com/news_briefs_inside.asp?id=20060907134116&h=1
37) Turkey’s 2010 vision to increase tourists from 14 to 30million, income from 2 to 30 billion (US$) and to doubleemployment to 3m people.2010 Tourism Vision of Turkey - Ministry of Tourism and Culturehttp://www.kulturturizm.gov.tr/genel/galeri/vizyon-eng/index.htm
38) Opening of new 20m passenger Abu Dhabi airportExpansion plans of Abu Dhabi Airport to be revealed in Mid Eastevent - March 15, 2007http://www.traveldailynews.com/new.asp?newid=36080&subcategory_id=53
39) Completion of The World development in Dubai 2010Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing -http://www.dubaitourism.ae/
40) 40 Abu Dhabi hotels and resorts to be builtUAE TOURISM ATTRACTS WORLD TRAVELLERS - 8 March 2006http://www.khaleejtimes.com/TravelInsideNew.asp?xfile=data/travel/2006/March/travel_March5.xml§ion=travel&col=
41) Completion of Fujairah Paradise and Ras-al-Khaimah’s alMarjan island developmentsRealty is Red Hot – June 2006 http://www.zawya.com/marketing.cfm?zp&p=/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20060608062129
42) Ras-al-Khaimah tourist numbers 100,000RAK to attract 100,000 tourists by 2010- 15th February 2007http://uaeinteract.com/news/default.asp?cntDisplay=10&ID=20
43) Syria targets 7m visitors by 2010Syria spends up on tourism – October 5th 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/98190.html
44) Qatar to complete $130 billion infrastructure investmentMinister highlights $130 billion Qatar projects at MEEDconference in Doha - March 2nd 2006
45) $27bn Bawadi Hospitality and Tourism development to open by 2010His Highness Sheikh Mohammed launches leading hospitality investment project – May 1st 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/84671.html
46) Up to $3 trillion GCC infrastructure investment underway by 2010Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690
47) Up to 320 million additional passengers in ME by 2010WTM 2006 Global Trends Report -http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTMReportfinal4.pdf
48) Abu Dhabi’s Louvre branch is expected to be opening 2012Abu Dhabi's Louvre finally approved, ready by 2012http://www.demaniore.it/opencms/opencms/eng_demanioRe/homePageSezione/attualita/in-evidenza/home/DM08-1173090785085.html?breadCrumb=Detail
49) The Iran government plans to build 100 more hotels by 2010Iran aims for more tourists – February 4th 2007http://www.ameinfo.com/109612.html
50) Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island to host Formula OneAbu Dhabi to host Formula One Grand Prix in 2009 – March 2nd 2007http://www.inforally.sibiul.ro/formula1_news_58.html
51) UAE will add 55,000 more hotel rooms by 2012Accor Presentation – Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market
52) Completion of the US$ 3.3 billion Umm Al Quwain Marina project by 2015Developments: Umm Al Quwain: Umm Al Quwain Marinahttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/umm_al_quwain/umm_al_quwain_marina.php
53) Egypt plans to double number of tourists by 2014Egyptian Tourist Authority launches new website - March 29, 2006http://www.hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/060329_egyptian_tourist_authority_launches_new_website/
54) Emirates Airline could own 10% of long haulThe Chinese are coming... November 7 2006http://travel.iafrica.com/bulletinboard/389306.htm
55) Yemenia Airways to start taking delivery of 6 new Airbus A350’s in 2012Yemenia buys six A350s – March 13 2006http://www.ameinfo.com/80185.html
56) Oman Wave beachfront project completeFairmont Hotels to set up $2b project in Oman – 14th March 2007http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093146273
57) Doha International Airport completedPremium terminal leads Doha’s new services – February 2007http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6230&Section=820&IssueID=271
58) Opening of Dubai Jebel Ali as worlds largest airport – 70 m passengers by 2016 – expected to be operational 2017and ultimately capable of handling 120m passengersDubai - Overviewhttp://www.usatoday.com/marketplace/ibi/dubai.htm
59) Digital concierges could manage our entire travel experience by 2015Future Traveler Tribes 2020 – Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus -http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/TravellerTribes.pdf
60) World economy to grow 80% by 2020Foresight 2020 - Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=eiu_Cisco_Foresight_2020
61) Abu Dhabi, The Emirate Pearl Island Project US $ 27bnman-made island. 29 hotels, 1 is 7*, completes 2018United Kingdom: "Foresight 2020" Economist Intelligence Unit(EIU)Executive Report – The Magazine For The Tourism, Hospitalityand Leisure Industry - Part Two – Deloitte – 11th January 2007http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510
62) Opening of Bahrain-Qatar express linkBahrain/Qatar: Gulf express train on track - 04 November 2006www.traintraveling.com/africa_meast/africa_meast_intercity.shtml
63) Egypt’s $16 billion Gamsha Bay development to complete by 2017Gamsha Bay - Egypt property investment December 5th 2006http://www.gamshabay.info/
64) 200 Spa locations in Dubai Wellness & Spas Trade Fair to promote slimming & healthhttp://www.ameinfo.com/113828.html
65) Virtual travelGFF Forecast
66) Abu Dhabi targets 3m visitors by 2015DIMARCO TO DEFEND ABU DHABI GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE –13th September 2006http://www.imgworld.com/press_room/fullstory.sps?iType=13708&iNewsid=374570&iCategoryID=12543
67) Ras-al-Khaimah $2.7bn waterfront development completeProperty Developments: Ras Al Khaimah: Mina Al Arabhttp://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/ras_al_khaimah/mina_al_arab.php
68) Airbus predicts ME passenger traffic to grow 7.1% annually to2015 and then 5.2% until 2025 Mideast air traffic to grow 7% 69) March 7th 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/112907.html
70) Larger than Monaco, Dubailand completed in 2020. Opening in 2010 it will employ 300,000 people in the variousjoylands servicing 15 million visitorsMiddle East’s answer to Disneyland http://www.42international.com/dubai.htm
71) Global population to reach 8bnSix key states push world to 9bn people - The Guardian – March 1st 2001http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,,444709,00.html
72) Number of tourists expected to reach 150 million by 2020WTO’s Tourism 2020www.world-tourism.org/market_research/facts/market_trends.htm
73) By 2020 Middle East airlines will buy 870 aircraftUnited Kingdom: Executive Report – The Magazine For TheTourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two – Deloitte –January 11th 2007http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510
74) Dubai International Airport projected to be handling up to100m passengers per year by 2025New Aviation Developments -http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896
75) Oman targets Omanisation rate (no. of locals employed) of50% by 2020 in tourism sectorOman Opportunities - Meepashttp://www.meepas.com/Omanopportunities.htm
76) Aircraft 50% more fuel efficientFuel Efficiencyhttp://www.iata.org/whatwedo/environment/fuel_efficiency.htm
77) Global tourist arrivals to reach over 1.56 bn by 2020WTO Background Paper on climate Change and Tourismwww.world-tourism.org/sustainable/climate/pres/graham-todd.pdf
78) Robotic hotel staff will be commonGFF Forecast
79) By 2050 humans will need at least two planets’ worth ofnatural resources to live as they do now.One Planet Living Campaign - World Wildlife Fundwww.wwf.org.uk/oneplanet
80) Dubai forecast to double number of tourists by 2022GFF estimate based on published announcements
81) Hypersonic travel by 2020Tourism Futures Looking Out to 2020 – Travel IndustryAssociation of Americawww.latour.lsu.edu/presentations/Dr.Cook.pdf
82) Saudi targets 2m non-Haj and Umrah visitors by 2020Travel and Tourism - Saudi Arabia, December 2006, Euromonitorwww.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Saudi_Arabia
83) 100m outbound Chinese touristsGrowth Marketswww.corporate.visitlondon.com/ems/images/2emerging_preso.pdf
84) ME passenger fleet could rise to 1195 aircraft by 2025Budget blitzhttp://www.trendsmagazine.net/business.php
85) Iran targets 25m visitorsAccor Presentation – Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market– Presentation to Trends and Challenges in Middle East TravelConference - Feb 20th-21st 2007
86) Flooding resulting from climate change could displace 200mClimate change fight 'can't wait' – 31st October 2006http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6096084.stm
87) World tourism market could triplewww.tourism.jo/inside/Strategy.asp
88) Multilingual, conversational interfaces couldreplace keyboardsFuture Traveler Tribes 2020 – Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus -http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/TravellerTribes.pdf
89) Water availability in Middle East and North Africa todrop by half by 2050Factors Inside and Outside the Water Sector Drive Mena’s WaterOutcomes – World Bankhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/01-Chap01-Scarcity.pdf
90) Oman’s 2m tourist capacity $15bn Blue City development tobe complete by 2026.Diversification Drive – The Blue Cityhttp://www.apexstuff.com/bt/200512/cs.asp
Timeline Image References
1. http://www.airarabia.com/
2. http://www.photos.com
3. http://www.photos.com
4. www.ksbitv.com/ hotlinks/3318381.html
5. www.skyscrapercity.com/ showthread.php?t=111551
6. http://www.flynas.com/eng/ourplanes.html
7. http://www.flysama.com/Sama/English/Top/AboutUs/
MediaGallery/Photos/
8. http://www.realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com
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The future of Travel and Tourism in theMiddle East - A vision to 2020An Arabian Travel Market and Global Futuresand Foresight study
This ground breaking project for the Middle East will provide atruly international perspective on how travel and tourism in theregion could develop and what the implications might be. The study is using a combination of a global survey of industryprofessionals and travellers, in-depth desk research and expertinterviews to provide critical insights on the future of travel in the Middle East. The study is designed to help the region take aconsolidated view on the development of travel and tourism inthe region and the implications and challenges for building andsustaining the industry. The study will explore what the drivers of change are, identify potential ‘wild card’ events that couldblow growth off-course or accelerate it and examine the overalloutlook in five, ten and twenty years’ time.
The study will factor in the forecasts, perspectives and opinionsof key industry bodies and commentators. It will examinepotential discontinuous drivers such as political, economic,social, demographic, environmental, technological, legislative andconsumer behavioural changes which could influence the plansof this key sector for the Middle East. There will be three reportsproduced through this study. This short ‘Pathfinder’ report, a fullreport later in 2007 and a ‘Response from the Region’ which will be launched at ATM 2008.
How to be involvedThe full report will be distributed to all 20,000+ attendees at theWorld Travel Market in London in November 2007 and distributedelectronically to over 150,000 travel industry professionalsworldwide – providing an excellent opportunity for brand exposureto any potential sponsors. Being associated with this leadingwork will help reinforce any participant’s position as a leading,insightful and strategic player in the Travel and Tourism Industryin the Middle East. Please contact the authors to discuss theopportunities to become involved in this ground breaking seriesof reports and to understand the benefits to you.
About Arabian Travel Market‘Arabian Travel Market’ (ATM) has become the first PlatinumSponsor of this study series on behalf of Reed Travel Exhibitionsand welcomes other leading organisations to join them in thisventure. ATM is the industry's leading travel and tourismexhibition dedicated to unlocking the business potential withinthe Middle East and Pan Arab region. Uniting key market playersfrom six continents, Arabian Travel Market is four days ofintensive meetings, seminars, press conferences and socialnetworking opportunities.
About Global Futures and Foresight The aim of Global Futures and Foresight (GFF) is to harness theviews of global experts to provide foresight to organizations sothat they can be more successful and less exposed to risk bybetter understanding the opportunities and threats the futuremay bring. GFF is a strategic futures think tank that draws on aglobal network of business, academic and future thinkers fromacross the world committed to helping business and governmentbetter prepare for the future. It does this through collaborativeprojects and through undertaking its own research, gatheringthought leaders’ views of the future and forming composite ideasof what our future could look like. It helps business andgovernment factor these views into their strategic thinking and by so doing become better prepared for the future.
About the Authors
David Smith is joint head of GFF and an experiencedbusinessman, authority on futures issues and internationalspeaker. In his 30 year business career he has held seniormanagement positions in a number of global organizations andhas been involved in public sector, commercial and financialmarkets. He has advised the UK, Australian, South African andEuropean Union governments on strategic research investmentdecisions. Since founding GFF five years ago he has worked withmany government, commercial and academic organisationsincluding the Association of Event Organisers, where he gave thekeynote address at their 2006 conference. He leads the GFFPulse annual research project which highlights issues likely toimpact business in the next five years.
Rohit Talwar is joint head of GFF and an internationally renowned futures researcher and award winning speaker. He has conducted major futures studies, developed researchmethodologies and undertaken consulting assignments forclients in the private sector and government and worked withglobal clients in over 25 countries. Rohit is a specialist on thefuture of travel and tourism and the long term development ofAsia and the Middle East. . He has just completed a major studyon the Future of China – the Path to 2020.Rohit is a regular speaker in Dubai on global trends. He chairedand delivered a keynote speech at both the recent Dubai MiddleEast Travel Trends conference and the World CEO Forum inFebruary 2006. He has delivered keynote presentations on Vision 2020 for Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Investmentand the Dubai Human Resources Forum.
To contact Global Futures and Foresight Tel: +44 1372 [email protected] [email protected] www.thegff.com
www.arabiantravelmarket.com/thegff
Presented at Arabian Travel Market 2007
All data sources and photographs and artwork images used are acknowledged in a fully referencedextended version of this document which is available online at www.thegff.com
Global Futuresand Foresight