the future age trends impacting an ageing community annimac anni macbeth futurist trend forecaster ...
TRANSCRIPT
The Future Age
Trends impacting an
Ageing Community
Annimac Anni Macbeth
Futurist Trend Forecaster
www.annimac.com.au
Retirement Village Association WA 10th August 2007 2007 WA Regional Conference Perth W Australia Keynote
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Future : speed of change
1 Change we have in 1 day
Grandfather had in 1 year
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Future : speed of change
2 Differing rates
Younger means faster
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I’m never having kids. I hear they take nine months to download.
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Future trends for RV
Current issues impacting RV industry
Future megatrends
Key drivers
Implications for thriving
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Current trends & issues
• Government policies -
privatising
• land shortage
• land cost
• destabilised money market
• large vs small operators
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Current trend issues
• range of facilities
• underskilled management
• enviro friendliness
• hi tech
• diversification of consumers
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Megatrends W A
1. Climate change is here
2. Peak oil has happened
3. Boom without bust
4. Perth now global city
5. Technology
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Megatrends W A
1. Climate change is here
WA climate highly vulnerable
Tropics moving south
Desert moving west
All rainfall & temp changing
2° temp rise = 1 metre ocean
rise
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Megatrends W A
2. Peak Oil has happened
The Big Rollover : Demand > Supply
global O&G industry 2005 said:
happen in 2007 – 2012
Feb 2007 industry said: Now !
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Megatrends W A
3. Boom without bust
Rources driven boom
Aust’s strongest economy
Aust’s most stable economy
Australia globally robust
continue 20+ years - a
generation
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Megatrends W A
4. Perth Global city
GC : international vs domestic trade
real estate immediate indicator
reduced domestic fluctuations
increasing migration pressure
changing socio demographics
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Megatrends W A
5. Technology
driving all change
70% jobs in 2020 not exist now
80% technology not imagined
yet
Under 20s
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Likely RV jobs in next 15 years ? !
1. Biotech Homes Consultant 2. Director of Emerging Thought 3. Generational Values Translator4. Hacker Relations Manager5. Holistic Lifestyle Coach6. Holographic Display Modeller 7. Home Mood Enhancement
Adviser 8. Nano Technology Info Officer 9. Online Client Life Consultant
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Japanese Robanoid 2006
Future Receptionist ? Display RV guide ?
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Key drivers of trends
1 Technology
2 Economy
3 Consumers
Socio demographics
Generational attitudes &
values
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Key drivers of trends
1 Technology
2 Economy
3 Consumers
Socio demographics
Generational attitudes & values
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Key drivers of trends
1 Technology
2 Economy
3 Consumers
Socio demographics
Generational attitudes & values
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Key drivers of trends
1 Technology
2 Economy
3 Consumers
Socio demographics
Generational attitudes &
values
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Key drivers of trends
Consumers
Socio demographics :
diversities
Boomer power
Boomer wealth
Boomer sophistication
Migrants - lifestyles
Family repatterning
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Key drivers of trends
Consumers
Generational attitudes & values
Elders 60+ existing RV
residents conservative
family ties
safety & health conscious
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Baby Boomers$100 for speeding
$250 for misleading the public
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Key drivers of trends
Consumers
Generational attitudes & values
Boomers 45-60 new RV residents
individualism
varied lifestyles
SKI demanding options
struggling pensioners
confused
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Gen X Lifestyle Dog
What !
No lemon wedge ?
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Key drivers of trends
Consumers
Generational attitudes & values
Gen X 30-45 wheeler dealers
materialistic
unfamily no ties
Gen Y DotComs 20’s immediacy
mobile
secure driving change
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Ferals to 15
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Implications for RV Thrival
Speed of change - exponential
expect greater change
question assumptions
listen to consumers
global perspective
shift from economic rationalism
environmental / cultural
sustainability
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Implications for RV Thrival
Consumer Power increasing influence - on govt &
biz less trust of Big Boys - Ec
Rats greater individualism
lifestyles multicultural relationships
greater demands & expectations greater generational differences learn culture of generations
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Implications for RV Thrival
Facilities consumer demands increasing diversity options ranges increasing greater partnership with residents
location scale design
financial markets diverging pensions, superannuation, savings
variable cost of borrowings unstable general economic climate good Ec rats lose consumer support
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Implications for RV Thrival
Land Govt long term planning unreliable global city - costs increasing perimeter expanding rapidly public transport greater importance enviro friendly non negotiable large not necessarily better
size of villages size of operators
mixed use desireable
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Implications for RV Thrival
Management
relationship vs accounting & legal skills
consumer driven
consumers demand personal attention
Walk the Talk enviro sustainability multicultural sensitivities no isms - esp ageism & sexism
technologically up to speed
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Parallel
Universes
Long term
Growth of
RVs ?
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Facing the future in the RV industry :
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thank you www.annimac.com.au