The Federal Funding Outlook: A Colorado State Budget

Perspective

Presentation to the Colorado Counties Inc. Summer Conference

Amanda BickelChief Legislative AnalystJoint Budget Committee StaffJune 6, 2012

Amanda.Bickel@state.co.us303-866-4960www.state.co.us/gov_dir/ leg_dir/jbc/jbchome.htm

Federal Funding for Human Services: How Important IS it to

Colorado?

State Appropriations for Department of Human Services

County Expenditures for Human Services Programs and Benefits

General Fund41%

Other State/ Local Funds

17%

Federal Funds42%

FY 2011-12$2.0 billion

General Fund19%

County Funds

9%Federal Funds71%

FY 2010-11$1.7 billion

Funding Sources for Colorado Human Services

County Human Services Spending: 10 Year Comparison

Federal Funds

State Funds

County Funds

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

FY 2000-01 (in 2011 dollars)FY 2010-11

Expenditures for Public Assistance Benefits

FY 2000-01 in 2011 dollars

FY 2010-11$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

County FundsState FundsFederal Funds

County Child Welfare(Millions $)

County DHS Administration

(Millions $)

FY 00-01 in 2011

dollars

FY 10-11

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

County FundsState FundsFederal Funds

FY 00-01 in 2011

dollars

FY 10-11

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

County FundsState FundsFederal Funds

Human Services Expenditures except Benefits

Why has Human Services become more reliant on federal funds over time? A State Budget Perspective

Total Operating Appropriations

*Separate category added in FY 08-09 to identify duplicate appropriations.

Bill

ions

of

Dol

lars

Fiscal Year

5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.8 7.3 7.5 6.7 6.8 7.1

4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.12.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3

3.63.8

3.94.7 5.7

5.5 5.1

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12

General Fund Cash Funds Reappropriated Funds* Federal Funds

State of Colorado Operating Budget Comparison

General Fund47%

Other State Funds30%

Fed-eral

Funds23%

FY 2000-01 $12.4 billion

General Fund39%

Other State Funds34%

Federal Funds28%

FY 2011-12 $19.7 billion

FY 2000-01: $12.4 Billion

FY 2011-12: $19.7 Billion

Operating Budget: 11-Year Comparison*

*Includes General Fund, cash funds (including duplicated appropriations), and federal funds.

K-12 Ed-ucation

21%

Higher Education

12%

Cor-rec-tions4%

Judicial2%

Health Care19%

Human Services

14%

Transp.11%

Other Operating17% K-12 Ed-

ucation22%

Higher Education

15%

Cor-rec-tions4%

Judicial2%

Health Care26%

Human Services

10%

Transp.6%

Other Operat-

ing15%

FY 2000-01: $5.4 Billion

FY 2011-12: $7.1 Billion

GF Operating Budget: 11-Year Comparison*

*Includes only General Fund.

K-12 Ed-ucation

40%Higher Education

14%

Cor-rec-tions8%

Judicial4%

Health Care19%

Human Services9% Other

Operat-ing7%

K-12 Ed-ucation

40%Higher Education

9%

Cor-rec-tions9%

Judicial5%

Health Care24%

Human Services9%Other

Operat-ing4%

Total Operating Appropriations Per Capita*

*Appropriations include General Fund, cash funds, and federal funds, but exclude duplicated amounts. Appropriations are divided by the Colorado population for 2000 and 2011, respectively. FY 2000-01 appropriations are increased to reflect changes in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley CPI from 2000 to 2011.

2011

Dol

lars

per

C

apit

a

$577$924

$745

$844$422

$462$478

$397$207

$226$409

$216

$955$714

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

$2,800

$3,200

$3,600

FY 2000-01 FY 20011-12

Other

Transportation

Corrections/ Judicial

Human Services

Higher Education

K-12

Health Care

GF Operating Appropriations Per Capita*

*Appropriations include General Fund only. Appropriations are divided by the Colorado population for 2000 and 2011, respectively. FY 2000-01 appropriations are increased to reflect changes in the Denver-Boulder-Greeley CPI from 2000 to 2011.

2011

Dol

lars

per

C

apit

a

$250 $290

$635 $554

$214$122

$195

$163

$186

$193

$108

$58

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

FY 2000-01 FY 20011-12

Other

Corrections/ Judicial

Human Services

Higher Education

K-12

Health Care

Appropriations by Human Services Division: 11 Years

Depar

tmen

t Adm

inistr

ation

Count

y Adm

inistr

ation

Child W

elfar

e

Child C

are a

nd Self

Suffici

ency

Mental

Hea

lth, A

lcoho

l and

Dru

g Abu

se

Disabil

ities

Adult

Assist

ance

Youth

Cor

recti

ons

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

FY 2000-01 (in 2011 dollars)FY 2011-12

??????

Many federal decisions pending November election

Sequestration

Other “tightening”, such as loss of $13.6 million TANF supplemental grant, low-income energy assistance cuts

Impact of Federal Cuts

State Sequestration Impact: Initial EstimatesGrant FFY 12

Grant Award(Millions $)

FFY 13 Reduction at 8.5 Percent(Millions $)

Vocational Rehabilitation 40.2 (3.4)Low Income Energy Assistance 38.1 (3.2)Social Services Block Grant 27.7 (2.4)Child Care Development Funds

27.5 (2.3)

Substance Abuse Block Grant 26.2 (2.2)Older Americans Act 16.1 (1.4)Refugee Services 12.4 (1.1)Child Welfare (IV-B/CAPTA) 8.0 (0.7)Infants/toddlers with disabilities

7.1 (0.6)

Mental Health Block Grants 6.6 (0.6)Multiple Other Grants 13.5 (1.1)TOTAL ESTIMATE $223.4 ($19.0)

The Future: Ongoing State Budget Restrictions

Expenditures cannot exceed revenues

Voter approval required for tax increases

Annual growth for most state revenues limited to inflation plus population [Referendum C base – FY 2007-08]

Annual General Fund appropriations < 5.0% of Colorado personal income

General Fund reserve (4.0% 6.5%)

$6.6

$5.5 $5.5$5.8

$6.1

$7.0$7.5 $7.7

$6.7$6.5

$7.1$7.5 $7.7

$8.1

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9Bi

llion

s of D

olla

rsBars represent LCS ForecastDots represent OSPB Forecast

General Fund Revenue Trend

Source: Colorado State Controllers Office and Legislative Council Staff projections based on the March 2012 forecast.

General

Fund

TABOR and Referendum C

*Legislative Council Staff March 2012 forecast.

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

Referendum C Timeout Period

Referendum C Cap

Original TA-BOR Limit

Source: Colorado State Controllers Office and Legislative Council Staff.

Funding Demands: School Districts

00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

1,53

6.7

1,62

9.6

1,67

4.2

1,67

1.2

1,68

6.4

1,70

1.3

1,72

9.2

1,91

5.8

1,95

5.9

2,06

8.6

2,01

8.9

1,90

0.5

1,92

4.4

1,97

4.7

2,07

3.4

2,13

7.6

2,24

7.9

2,34

2.8

2,48

0.5

2,65

7.7

2,79

0.5

2,93

0.1

3,07

6.3

2,79

7.8

2,67

1.8

2,85

2.3

School Districts' Total Program Funding ($ millions)

Recision/ Negative FactorFederal FundsState General FundOther State FundsLocal Funds

Funding Demands: Medicaid

$0.0

$500,000,000.0

$1,000,000,000.0

$1,500,000,000.0

$2,000,000,000.0

$2,500,000,000.0

$3,000,000,000.0

$3,500,000,000.0

DisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledDisabledElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderlyElderly

AdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdultsAdults

AdultsAdultsAdults

AdultsAdultsAdults

ChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildrenChildren

ChildrenChildrenChildren

ChildrenChildren

Children

Medicaid Expenditures

$ B

illio

ns

Thank You!

Amanda BickelChief Legislative AnalystJoint Budget Committee StaffJune 6, 2012

Amanda.Bickel@state.co.us303-866-4960www.state.co.us/gov_dir/ leg_dir/jbc/jbchome.htm