F O R T Y - N I N T H A N N U A L

CO LO R A DO

B U S I N E S S E C O N O M I C

O U T L O O K20 14

F o r t y - N I N t h A N N u A l

ColoradoBusiness eConomiC

OutlOOk2014

Sponsored by the University of Colorado Boulder, Leeds School of Business

Additional copies may be ordered from:

Business Research Division

University of Colorado Boulder

420 UCB

Boulder, CO 80309-0420

leeds.colorado.edu/brd

ISBN 0-89478-022-0

Copyright 2013 by the

Business Research Division

Leeds School of Business

University of Colorado Boulder

Boulder, CO 80309-0420

Information in this book is correct at the time of printing but may be subject to change.

Material contained within the accompanying tables is in the public domain and, with

appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Please reference,

Business Research Division, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder.

Printed on recycled paper.

(FSC mark here.)

Introduction .................................................................................................... 2

Colorado Then and Now ............................................................................... 4

U.S. Economic Outlook .................................................................................. 6

Colorado Economic, Employment, and Population Outlook ..................... 9

Agriculture ......................................................................................... 16

Natural Resources and Mining ......................................................... 21

Construction ...................................................................................... 31

Manufacturing ................................................................................... 36

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities ................................................. 44

Information ........................................................................................ 52

Financial Activities ............................................................................. 58

Professional and Business Services ................................................... 74

Education and Health Services ......................................................... 81

Leisure and Hospitality ..................................................................... 93

Other Services .................................................................................... 106

Government ....................................................................................... 107

International Trade ............................................................................112

Summary ............................................................................................122

Around the Region ............................................................................124

From Around the State:

Boulder County ...................................................................126

Kit Carson County ...............................................................129

La Plata County ...................................................................130

Mesa County ........................................................................132

Northern Colorado ..............................................................134

Pueblo County ..................................................................... 136

Southern Colorado ..............................................................138

Steering Committee Members .......................................................................141

Estimating Groups ..........................................................................................142

Table of Contents

Photo Credits Page 8, Cheryl Jacobson 2012 AgInsights Photo Contest < Page 19, Laurie Purcell 2012 AgInsights Photo

Contest < Page 40, Ska Brewing < Pages 48, 65, VISIT DENVER, The Convention & Visitors Bureau < Page 129, Pink Cadillac at the I-70 Diner, Flagler, Colorado courtesy of Grainne Rhuad 2012 < Page 130, Fort Lewis College < Page 135, Mike Campbell < Page 139, Courtesy of Kathleen (Kathy) MacLeod Abbott

< Other photos, University of Colorado

2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook

2

The Business Research Division (BRD) in the Leeds School of Business is proud to present our 49th annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook. The 2014 Colorado outlook is a product of partnerships that rely on research conducted by our students and staff, and members of the public and private sectors.

This forecast analyzes changes that have occurred in all economic sectors during the past year, and looks at the opportunities and challenges that will shape population, employment, and the overall economy in the coming year. The information in this book is initially presented at the forty-ninth annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum in Denver, followed by roughly 50 forecast speeches that are held throughout the state during the year, ranging from presentations to industry associations and nonprofit organizations to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

MethodologyWe are fortunate to have more than 100 individu-als from the business, education, and government communities who serve on 13 sector estimating groups. These groups convene at a kickoff meeting

in September where members discuss trends and issues that are likely to affect economic growth during the upcoming year. During the second half of September and into October, the committees apply this information to their industry. From this series of meetings, the sector write-ups and forecasts are prepared and submitted to the BRD in November, when they are edited and published in this book. The following June, the Steering Committee, which is comprised of the sector chairs, meets to review their forecasts and iden-tify factors that will positively or negatively drive change in their industrys economic performance during the second half of the year. These updates are published in the summer issue of our quarterly e-newsletter, the Colorado Business Review.

Related Economic ResearchThe BRD conducts customized business and economic research that expands the knowledge base of decision makers throughout the state and region. The annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook provides the foundation for all research the BRD conducts within the state. Among the other BRD research tools available to businesses and organizations is the Leeds Business Confi-dence Index, a forward-looking index that gauges Colorado business leaders opinions about national and state economic trends and how their industry will perform in the coming quarter, and the

Introduction

2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook

3

Colorado Business Review, which explores cur-rent topics of importance to the states economy. Visit leeds.colorado.edu/brd for more information about BRD offerings.

AcknowledgmentsWe are humbled and thankful to have dedicated partners in producing this forecast. A complete list of committee members appears at the back of this book. Their efforts are very much appreciated. We also thank the staff of the Colorado Department of Local Affairs and the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment who supply us with much of the employment and population data used in the forecast.

Finally, I would like to thank the many Leeds School of Business and CU-Boulder personnel who worked hard at preparing, presenting, and promoting this project. My sincerest thanks go to Brian Lewandowski, Research Associate; Cindy DiPersio, Project Coordinator; Bonnie Beverly, Administrative Assistant; Lynn Reed, Graphic Designer; Kim Warner, Publications Project Man-ager; and Rick Brubaker, Jim Dalton, Sam McMe-ley, Noah Seidenfeld, Ryan Thorpe, and Emily Zalasky, Student Research Assistants, for their help in assembling and presenting the 2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum. The assistance provided by Rex Whisman, director of Marketing

and Communications, and Erik Jeffries, produc-tion/project manager, both in the Leeds School, is greatly appreciated, along with the assistance provided by Elizabeth Lock and Dirk Martin with the CU-Boulder Office of News Services.

Colorado Economic Forecast for 2014The sections that follow provide a summary of 2013, a forecast for 2014, and industry-specific data analysis and insight into the key factors influ-encing each sector. We believe this information will prove useful in your business and policy decision-making process.

Richard L. Wobbekind, PhDSenior Associate Dean for Academic

ProgramsExecutive Director, Business Research

DivisionLeeds School of Businessleeds.colorado.edu/brd

Celebrating More Than 95 Years of Service to Colorado

BRD: Business Research Division

The Business Research Division conducts economic impact studies and customized research projects that assist companies, associations, nonprofits, and government agencies with making sound business and policy decisions. Among the tools offered are the annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook, which provides a forecast of the states economy by sector, and the quarterly Leeds Business Confidence Index, which gauges Colorado business leaders opinions about the economy. The quarterly Colorado Business Review e-newsletter offers decision makers in-depth analysis and information about Colorados economy.

CONTACT US

Dr. Richard Wobbekind, Executive Directorrichard.wobbekind@colorado.edu303-492-1147

Brian Lewandowski, Research Associatebrian.lewandowski@colorado.edu303-492-3307

brdinfo@colorado.edu | leeds.colorado.edu/brd

2013 Leeds BEOF Book Ads R2.indd 1 11/19/13 10:56 AM

2014 Colorado Business Economic Outlook

4

Colorado Then and Now

The nations economy and culture has been shaped by numerous factors and changes over the past 60 years, many leaving footprints that can still be seen today. The United States has experienced monumental events ranging from technological advances to international trade to political turmoil and war. For Colorado, the continuous growth in key high-technology areas and expanding political influence has defined the states place in the world economy.

In 1950, the United States was a net exporter of goods. The nations population was about 151 million, and approximately 1.3 million people resided in Colorado. The Dow Jones reached a monthly high of 235, and Colorado per capita personal income was $1,512.

Since then, the U.S. population has grown to over 312 million, and Colorado has more than 5.1 million residents. The United States has a considerable trade deficit, the Dow is approach-ing 16,000, and Colorado per capita personal income is more than $45,000.

The adjacent timeline provides Colorados annual employment changes, along with a glimpse of some of the social, economic, educa-tional, and political changes that have occurred since 1950. Colorado events are listed above the line, and national events are listed below. This timeline emphasizes the importance of learning from the past: a historical perspective of earlier events can help businesses make more effective decisions today and in the future.