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THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

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Page 1: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR

VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY

BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

Page 2: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

• Protecting and preserving the PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES of the “Blue (water) Planet.

Page 3: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD

• 6.6 billion people, and growing while…

• Living and competing in an interconnected global economy,

• Producing $60 trillion of products each year, and

• Facing many kinds of complex disasters every year that are related to the 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.

Page 4: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE 3 S’s

• SAFETY (from recurring natural hazards)

• SECURITY

• SUSTAINABILITY

Page 5: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE FIVE E’s

• ECONOMY

• ENERGY

• ENVIRONMENT

• ECOLOGY

• EDUCATION

Page 6: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE 1 H

• HEALTH CARE

Page 7: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.   

Page 8: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER

• PEOPLE

• COMMUNITY• RECURRING EVENTS

(AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

Page 9: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS

• IGNORANCE

• APATHY

• DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES

• UNWISE DECISIONS

Page 10: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

• Poverty• Chronic hunger • Health care needs• Increasing risk of pandemic disease• Large-scale migration of people• Endangered plant and animal life • Conflict and terrorism

Page 11: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY

• Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards • Threats related to global climate change• Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil• Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

Page 12: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

OUR POSSIBLE “OH NO!” LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Unless we design and implement a realistic new strategy for disaster prevention, OUR problems may grow worse so rapidly that we reach many “tipping points,” before we realize it and share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth.

Page 13: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

A SOLUTION SET: THE FRAMEWORK OF SUSTAINABILITY

• To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen

• To build capacity at the community level for monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation

• To build equity in all sectors of the community

• To inform, educate, and train

Page 14: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

WE KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- SO, LET’S DO IT!

• All of us working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions--- within OUR administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- and reach the goal of community sustainability.

Page 15: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY

SUSTAINABILITY

TOWARDS: INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND

PUBLIC POLICYMITIGATION, MONITORING, AND

ADAPTATION

Page 16: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter
Page 17: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THINKING OUT OF OUR BOXES WILL THINKING OUT OF OUR BOXES WILL FACILITATE FACILITATE

ENLIGHTENMENT AND ENLIGHTENMENT AND

ENABLEMENTENABLEMENT

AND CAUSE A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR AND CAUSE A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR PROFESSIONALS TO WORK PROFESSIONALS TO WORK

STRATEGICALLY ON LOCAL, REGIONAL STRATEGICALLY ON LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SCALES.AND GLOBAL SCALES.

Page 18: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

LOCAL AND REGIONAL LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS GOVERNMENTS

WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO MONITOR, MITIGATE AND ADAPT TO MONITOR, MITIGATE AND ADAPT TO

SOCIETAL PROBLEMS POSED BY SOCIETAL PROBLEMS POSED BY COMPLEX GLOBAL DISASTERS ON COMPLEX GLOBAL DISASTERS ON LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL

SCALES SCALES

Page 19: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

TOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITYTOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY TOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITYTOWARDS COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY

THE KNOWLEDGE BASE

Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation

Gateways to a Deeper Understanding

Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/Communication

Vulnerability and Risk Characterization

Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations

Situation Data Bases

Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources

Cause & Effect Relationships

CAPACITY BUILDING

Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation

Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable “Partnerships”

Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base

Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies

Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community

CONTINUING EDUCATION

Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences

Enlighten Communities on Their Risks

Build Strategic Equity Through “MMA” Scenarios

Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning

Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario

TURNING POINTS: TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Monitoring, Mitigation, and Adaptation Partnerships for Monitoring, Mitigation, and Adaptation (MMA) on local and regional scales(MMA) on local and regional scales

TURNING POINTS: TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Monitoring, Mitigation, and Adaptation Partnerships for Monitoring, Mitigation, and Adaptation (MMA) on local and regional scales(MMA) on local and regional scales

Page 20: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING, THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA)MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA)

THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING, THE GLOBAL AGENDA: MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA)MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION (MMA)

EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS

EXPERIENCES WITH MONITORING AND WARNING

EXPERIENCES WITH DISASTER SCENARIO PLANNING

EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION

EXPERIENCES WITH PREVENTION, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION

PARTNERSHIPS (2011 AND BEYOND)

PARTNERSHIPS (2011 AND BEYOND)

Page 21: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

FACTORS THAT FACILITATE A PARADIGM SHIFT

• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.

• THE COMMON AGENDA FOR PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD

• INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO DEVISE AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION.

Page 22: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF MOVING FROM THINKING TO ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE KINDS OF PARADIGM SHIFTS (ACTIONS) THAT ARE NEEDED.

Page 23: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY NTEGRATING THE BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR MONITORING, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES AND ASSETS.

Page 24: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE

ISSUES

POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN ACHIEVE THE KIND OF PARADIGM SHIFT NEEDED TO SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY EACH LOCAL COMMUN ITY IN EVERY REGION.

Page 25: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

SIX THINKING HATS FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT

Page 26: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

SIX THINKING HATS FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT

• WHITE HAT: WHAT ARE THE FACTS?

• YELLOW HAT: WHAT ARE THE LOGICAL POSITIVE OUTCOMES OF EACH ACTION?

• BLACK HAT: WHAT ARE THE LOGICAL NEGATIVE OUTCOMES OF EACH ACTION?

Page 27: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

SIX THINKING HATS FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT

• RED HAT: HOW URGENT IS EACH ACTION?

• GREEN HAT: IS THIS A “WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY” FOR US?

• BLUE HAT: WHAT ARE THE ELEMENTS AND TIMELINES OF OUR STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANS FOR SEIZING THIS OPPORTUNITY?

Page 28: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

SIX ACTION SHOES FOR A PARADIGM SHIFT

Page 29: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A PARADIGM SHIFT

• BROWN BROGUE: FINDING THE RIGHT PARTNERS/PERSON FOR EACH JOB!

• WHITE SNEAKERS: A COMMISSION TO GATHER AND ANALYZE ALL THE FACTS!

• NAVY BLUE SHOES: CREATING STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANS THAT GIVE ALL PARTNERS A COMMON AGENDA!

Page 30: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

SIX ACTION SHOES F0R A PARADIGM SHIFT

• ORANGE RUBBER GUM SHOES: DOING WHAT IS NEEDED WHEN IT COUNTS THE MOST!

• TAN HOUSE SHOES: HAVING A SENSE OF URGENCY.

• PURPLE RIDING BOOTS: LEADERSHIP!

Page 31: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

ANTICIPATORY ANTICIPATORY DECISIONS DECISIONS

BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR:•MONITORING•MITIGATION•ADAPTATION

COMMUNITY COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABILITY

Page 32: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE FRAGILITIES

A Restless Earth—The Cause of Natural Phenomena that interact with PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES

EarthquakesTsunamisVolcanic

eruptionsLandslides

Page 33: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

INTERACTIONS THAT EXPOSE FRAGILITIES

Extreme Storms----Natural Phenomena that interact with PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES

Tropical Storms

HurricanesTyphoonsTornadoesNor’easters

Page 34: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

INTERACTIONS THAT CAN INCREASE FRAGILITIES

Actions of a community---To increase “Quality of Life”

Build Economic

Development Create LandControl WaterExpand CitiesFacilitate

Transportation

Page 35: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

INTERACTIONS THAT CAN INCREASE FRAGILITIES

Mankind’s Actions--- can have expected and unexpected consequences

DeforestationPollutionConflict

Page 36: THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21 ST CENTURY CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT IN THE GLOBAL WAR VS APATHY, IGNORANCE, DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES, AND UNWISE DECISIONS Walter

INTERACTIONS THAT CAN INCREASE FRAGILITIES

A Warming World ---with its spectrum of natural and unnatural causes

Increasing Temperatures

Diminishing Polar Ice

Shrinking Glaciers

Rising Sea Level


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