tbr datacenter second quarter vendor performance review slides
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TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
TBR’s Computing Business QuarterlySM
Research Highlights and OutlookTechnology Business Research (TBR) Quarterly Webinar Series
Oct. 18, 2012
TBR
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Computing Business Quarterly Research Highlights and Outlook: Webinar Presenters
Ken HyersSenior Analyst
Email: [email protected]: @kenhyers
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• Windows 8 tablets will shake up an already competitive market when they go on sale in 4Q12.
• However, Windows 8 tablets face an uphill battle: Apple continues to dominate the market and Google’s Nexus made an entrance to strongly positive reviews.
The Windows 8 sales boost will not come until at least 4Q12, but positive reviews build anticipation and promise high demand
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook
Computing Devices Vendor Trends for 2012
• PC sales are being hit by Windows 8 deferrals caused by customer anticipation and the shift to tablets.
• Windows 8 will drive sales, but not until late 4Q12/1Q13.• Tablets are generating all the industry buzz.
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
• Nokia faces its make-or-break moment with the Windows 8-based reboot to its Lumia smartphone platform in 4Q12.
• A miss with Windows 8 could spell doom for the former leader in global smartphone share.
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• PC vendors are focused on selling into emerging markets in advance of an anticipated Windows 8 rush.
• Enterprise buyers will wait until 2013 for Windows 8.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook
PC Vendor Trends for 2012
• PC sales are sluggish as consumers and even some enterprise buyers wait for Windows 8.
• Tablets sales are affecting PCs — the TBR CSAT shows many businesses are trading low-end laptops for tablets.
• To date, Ultrabooks have been a disappointment for many.• Numerous Ultrabook models were promised for 1H12, but few
were actually delivered.• In 2H12, as vendors deliver, will consumers step up?
Windows 8 anticipation will continue to defer sales for premium-priced PCs in 3Q12
IMAGE SOURCE: WEALTHMANAGEMENT.COM
IMAGE SOURCE: SLASHGEAR
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TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Lenovo Group
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: Sept. 7, 2012
Authors: Ezra Gottheil ([email protected]), Computing Practice Senior Analyst; Beau Skonieczny, Computing Practice AnalystContent Editor: John Spooner, Computing and StoragePractice Director
Second Calendar Quarter 2012First Fiscal Quarter 2013 Ended June 30, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK — POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 5.10
Dell and HP are playing the profitability game but losing traction against more agile PC growth leaders
HPYear-to-year PC revenue declines in 2Q12 are due to the impact of low-priced competitors and increased competition from tablets.
LenovoA balanced approach to profitability and pricing drove Lenovo’s PC sales and increased its traction in international markets.
DellChoosing not to participate in heavy PC discounting in the run-up to Windows 8, Dell’s desktop and notebook revenue declined by 9% and 19%, respectively.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: PC Vendors
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Hewlett-Packard Corp.
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Third Fiscal Quarter 2012 Ended July 31, 2012
Publish Date: Sept. 13, 2012Authors: Ezra Gottheil ([email protected]), Computing Practice Senior Analyst; Jack Narcotta ([email protected]), Computing Practice AnalystContent Editor: John Spooner, Director of Computing Practice
TBR OUTLOOK — NEGATIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
4.07
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Dell Inc.
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Second Fiscal Quarter 2013 Ended Aug. 3, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK — POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 5.04
Publish Date: Sept. 12, 2012
Author: Christian Perry ([email protected]), Computing Practice Senior Analyst; Krista Macomber, Computing Practice Analyst
Content Editor:John Spooner, Computing Practice Director
Dell, HP and Lenovo will unveil a barrage of Windows 8 models in 4Q12
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• TBR studies show large, pent-up demand for Windows 8 tablets.
• The Windows 8 tablet can and will cannibalize some PC sales.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook
Tablet Vendor Trends for 2012
• Google’s Nexus and Amazon’s Fire 2 HD will expand the market for Android but only at the low-end of the price-band range.
• Windows RT tablets offer little performance enhancements over the best Android tablets, but are too expensive.
• Windows 8 tablets will open a new front against Apple by establishing a higher-priced category for tablets.
• Apple and iOS will dominate tablets well into 2013.• Apple will maintain its lead in unit sales and revenue in 1H13,
driven by the Mini.
Pent-up demand for Windows 8 tablets will drive new device sales starting in 4Q12 and continuing in 1Q13
IMAGE SOURCE: MICROSOFT
IMAGE SOURCE: INTOMOBILE
IMAGE SOURCE: BGR
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TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Lenovo Group
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: Sept. 7, 2012
Authors: Ezra Gottheil ([email protected]), Computing Practice Senior Analyst; Beau Skonieczny, Computing Practice AnalystContent Editor: John Spooner, Computing and StoragePractice Director
Second Calendar Quarter 2012First Fiscal Quarter 2013 Ended June 30, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK — POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 5.10
Lower-priced tablets will be Android vendors' most competitive offerings as device vendors await Windows 8 to tap into new growth avenues
AsusAsus led the quarter in non-iOS tablet sales, as the launch of the $199 Nexus 7 tablet aided the company’s relatively strong sales of the premium-priced Transformer tablet.
LenovoStrong demand by public sector customers for the ThinkPad Tablet fueled tablet revenue growth for Lenovo in 2Q12; however, tablet sales grew from a relatively small sales base.
AppleiPad revenue in 2Q12 was driven by Apple’s aggressive international rollout of the new iPad, which helped drive double-digit tablet growth across all regions.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Tablets
The consumer tablet market has divided, with Apple in the top tier and Android at the bottom; however, the commercial market is still undefined.
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Asus
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: Sept. 20, 2012Author: Beau Skonieczny ([email protected]), Computing Practice AnalystContent Editor: Ezra Gottheil , Computing Practice Senior Analyst
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Second Fiscal Quarter 2012 Ended June 30, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK – POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 5.08
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Apple Inc.
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: August 14, 2012Authors: Ezra Gottheil ([email protected]), Computing Practice Senior Analyst; Beau Skonieczny, Computing Practice AnalystContent Editor: John Spooner, Computing Practice Director
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Third Fiscal Quarter 2012 Ended June 25, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK – POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 6.47
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• Samsung won the industry shift from low-margin feature phones to high-end smartphones.
• Apple’s iPhone dominates the high-end market.• Few vendors have the scale to compete across all price bands
and markets.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook
Smartphone Vendor Trends for 2012
• Smartphone sales are rapidly expanding, but few vendors are profiting.
• Differentiation is the key to profits.
• Windows 8 offers Nokia an opportunity to reboot its Lumia smartphone platform.
• If Nokia is to survive, failure is not an option.
Global demand for smartphones continues to increase rapidly, but fickle consumer tastes make targeting the mass market risky for vendors
IMAGE SOURCE: NOKIA
IMAGE SOURCE: SAMSUNG
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TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Motorola
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: May 18, 2012Authors: Ken Hyers, Computing Practice Senior Analyst ([email protected]), and Jack Narcotta, CP Analyst ([email protected])Content Editor: John Spooner, Computing Practice Director
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Second Fiscal Quarter 2012 Ended June 30 2012
TBR OUTLOOK – POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 5.18
HTC
Smartphone vendors will invest in portfolio development as they look for ways to stand out from the competition
SamsungStrong worldwide demand for Samsung’s flagship Galaxy smartphones supported the company’s second-place position in 2Q12 smartphone revenue.
HTCDespite a year-to-year revenue decline of 27.1%, HTC was able to record the third-highest smartphone revenue in 2Q12.
AppleAnticipation for the iPhone 5 led to a sequential iPhone sales decrease of 28.4% in 2Q12.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Smartphones
The iPhone 5 will slow adoption of competing premium smartphones
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Nokia
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: Aug. 9, 2012Authors: Jack Narcotta, Computing Practice Analyst ([email protected])Content Editor: John Spooner, Computing Practice Director
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Second Fiscal Quarter 2012 Ended June 30, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK — NEGATIVE TBR SCORE (0–10 SCALE)
5.00
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
Apple Inc.
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Publish Date: August 14, 2012Authors: Ezra Gottheil ([email protected]), Computing Practice Senior Analyst; Beau Skonieczny, Computing Practice AnalystContent Editor: John Spooner, Computing Practice Director
Second Calendar Quarter 2012Third Fiscal Quarter 2012 Ended June 25, 2012
TBR OUTLOOK – POSITIVE TBR SCORE (0-10 SCALE)
h 6.47
TBR
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Questions?
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook
TBR
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For further information, please contact:
John Spooner James McIlroyDirector, Computing Practice Vice President, [email protected] [email protected]
Ken HyersSenior Analyst
[email protected]@kenhyers
Computing Business Quarterly Research Highlights and Outlook: Webinar Presenters
TBR
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Backup
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Backup
TBR
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Acer
Apple
ASUSDell
Fujitsu devices
HPLenovo
Samsung
Sony
Toshiba
Panasonic
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
PC G
ross
Mar
gin
PC Revenue Growth YTY
2Q12 PC REVENUE GROWTH VS. PC GROSS MARGIN TBR
SOURCE: TBR AND COMPANY DATA
PC sales slowed on the verge of a Windows refresh, leaving lower-priced vendors able to penetrate emerging markets and gain global share
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Key Trends
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
Sluggish sales for PCs are temporary
TBR
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Acer
Amazon
Apple
ASUSDell
Fujitsu devices
Lenovo
Motorola Mobility
RIM
Samsung
Sony
Toshiba
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Gro
ss M
argi
n
Tablet Revenue Growth YTY
2Q12 TABLET REVENUE GROWTH VS. TABLET GROSS MARGIN TBR
SOURCE: TBR AND COMPANY DATA
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Key Trends
With Apple dominating the consumer tablet space, Windows 8 will create opportunities for vendors to capitalize on commercial sales
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
Android has failed to make inroads into the enterprise
TBR
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Apple
HTC
LGDell
Acer
Motorola Mobility
Nokia
RIM
Samsung
ASUS
Huawei
Sony
ZTEFujitsu Devices
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Gro
ss M
argi
n
Smartphone Revenue Growth YTY
2Q12 SMARTPHONE REVENUE GROWTH VS. SMARTPHONE GROSS MARGIN TBR
SOURCE: TBR AND COMPANY DATA
//3000%
Lenovo,2966.7% YTY
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Key Trends
The iPhone 5 launch will slow adoption of competing premium smartphones and negatively impact Samsung’s sales in 2H12
SOURCE: TBR RESEARCH AND ESTIMATES; COMPANY DATA AND ESTIMATES
Samsung’s and Apple’s dominance in smartphones leaves little room for competitors
TBR
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About TBR
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: About TBR
TBR
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TBR’s Computing Business Quarterly (CBQ) reports deliver unique insight and value through in-depth analysis in a concise, consumable format • TBR reports are unique due to their deep,
holistic analysis of leading vendor businesses.
• Financial modeling and TBR insights help customers gain a better understanding of vendor business models.
• TBR reports and webinars are responsive to client timelines, clear and concise, and provide insights across multiple layers of a vendor’s organization and infrastructure.
• TBR’s strategic assessment provides an impartial check on a vendor’s progress in its strategic objectives.
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: Webinar Overview
TBR Computing Business Quarterly Portfolio
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
COMPUTER BUSINESS QUARTERLYSM
Computing Devices BenchmarkSecond Calendar Quarter 2012
Publish Date: Sept. 28, 2012
Authors: Ken Hyers, Senior AnalystEzra Gottheil, Senior AnalystJack Narcotta, AnalystBeau Skonieczny, AnalystAngela Lambert, Research Analyst
Content Editor: John Spooner ([email protected]), Computing Practice Director
TBR
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Windows 8 will continue to impact the PC and tablet space in 3Q12 by creating growth opportunities for vendors
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: 3Q12 Research Topics
Quarterly Focus Areas TBR Perspective
The Impact of Windows 8
• Uncover how PC vendors are leveraging Windows 8 to gain traction in the consumer and commercial space.
• Discuss how Windows 8 will counter the consumerization trend.
PC & Tablet Vendor Ecosystems
• Explore how poorly curated app stores create opportunities for PC and tablet vendors.
• Examine how cloud services and content sharing is impacting vendor revenue streams and brand loyalty.
Tablet Price Wars
• Analyze vendors’ approach to the low-cost tablet space and what it means to broader tablet sales strategies.
• Determine how Windows RT and x86 Windows 8 tablets will be successful.
Partners and M&A
• Reveal how vendors are using M&A as a lever for rapid share growth and brand penetration.
• Uncover the underlying partner strategies vendors are using to drive technology improvements and patent apprehension.
Vertical-specific Differentiation
• Reveal how Windows 8 tablets will target specific verticals, such as education and financial institutions.
• Determine the impact content will have on vendors effectively tapping into new vertical markets.
TBR
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Vendors that establish more robust device ecosystems and differentiated capabilities will gain competitive advantages in 2H12
CBQ 2Q12 Research Highlights and 2012 Outlook: 3Q12 Research Topics
Quarterly Focus Areas TBR Perspective
The Impact of Windows 8
Discuss how Windows Phone 8 will help Microsoft gain traction in smartphones.
Mobile Device Ecosystems
• Explore whether the Windows 8 mobile device app ecosystem is rich enough to meet customer expectations.
• Consider how tablet vendors are building ecosystems around specific verticals.
Tablet Price Wars
• Discuss how tablet vendors will use pricing as a lever to target specific customer segments.
• Determine the impact of a lower-priced iPad on the market.
Software & Service Differentiation
• Provide insight on how content partnerships and media offerings will promote device sales and brand loyalty.
• Offer perspective on how advanced search services such as Siri will evolve and impact mobile devices.
iPhone 5 Counters
• Examine how the release of the iPhone 5 will impact smartphone sales.• Analyze the impact of Apple Passbook across the ecosystem of mobile
wallet solutions. • Show how and where maps issues create opportunities for other
smartphone vendors.
TBR
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS RESEARCH, INC.
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