TAPITurkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Pipeline

By: Roya Saqib, Year 2011. Class: Political Economy of South Asia. MA in IR, JNU.

TAPI Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Pipeline

Introduction • South Asian countries’ Cooperation in energy area is crucial in

furthering the cooperation and bringing about peace in the region among the concerned counties, since this area, due to the serious need for the energy of the SAs leading countries (India and Pakistan), has the potential to pave the way for a compromise and a balanced bargain, it is hoped that a peace could be achieved if the challenges are tackled and the trade is started. This presentation is highlighting such a planned cooperation under the TAPI pipeline project.

Focus points on TAPI

Pipeline merit over LNG Background Technical Features The Significance―A win-win

for all TAPI implementation

challenges conclusion

Advantage of Pipeline over LNG trade

gas transport by pipeline is considered economic in relation to gas transport as LNG up to distance

pipeline option confers greater supply security to the importer, since it is not easy for the exporter to shift the pipeline to some other country, which would offers a better price.

Background TAP-TAPI• Long time at stake (since 1990s)• 2 Consortium BRIDAS and UNOCAL• US support for UNOCAL, 1997 negotiation with Taliban• In 2001 negotiation broke down , and • Afghan new government negotiation started again• 2003 ADB started the technical studies assistance • India was proposed to participate- TAP to TAPI• 2008 all participants signed• Supposed to start supply of gas by 2015• But pipeline construction has not started yet

Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan along the highway through Herat, Helmand and Kandahar in Afghanistan, to Quetta and Multan in Pakistan, and on to Fazilka in India.

1,680 km pipeline 1,420 millimeters (56 in) in diameter working pressure of 100 standard atmospheres. The initial capacity will be 27 billion cubic meters (bcm) of

natural gas per year. 2 bcm to Afghanistan and 12.5 bcm to each Pakistan and India.

Later the capacity will increase to 33 bcm. Less than 5 bcm Afghanistan and 14 each for India and Pakistan

Initially estimate of cost US $3.3 bn. Now increased to US $7.6 billion

The project is to be financed by the Asian Development Bank

TAPI Technical Features

The Significance―A win-win for allFor Turkmenistan:Rich in natural gas

reservesFar from world oceansWants access to

market to export its gasTAPI-A Revenue source

and diversification of its export roots

According to a Statistical Review 2009, Turkmenistan has the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas, 7.94 trillion cubic meters (TCM), exceeded only by Russia, Iran and Qatar.

Significance cont.…….

Afghanistan is an

important bridge

between South and

Central Asia.

For Afghanistan : TAPI could mean around five

billion cubic meters of gas for internal needs

$300 million of transit profits leading to certain employment and source-of-income opportunities

Significance cont.…….

presently, India’s gas demand = 57.32 bcm of annual, 45.58 bcm

are provided domestically. The

balance is imported as LNG, including 5 bcm

from Qatar. This consumption need

will double acc. to a forecast in near

future.

For India to acquire additional

sources of energy supplies Strategic benefit of equating

china in getting a foothold in Central Asia

For Pakistan TAPI means a source for the demands of its energy deficit.

For US and Russia

• Russia interested in TAPI, • If it manages to

become a part of the project it will renew Moscow’s strategic influence in the region • and reduce the EU

source of available gas field

• US want to connect South to central Asia to extend its influence from South to Central Asia. (New Great Game) • It also wants to check

Russia and counter China• Also looks it as an

alternative to IPI for India, to weaken the Iran trade in gas.

Challenges

Political instability in Central Asia.

the unstable situation in Afghanistan

and the complex Pakistan- India relationships

• The rivalry between the US to implement the western style democracy and Russia to support the autocrats to maintain its writ has made the political situation in CA fragile.

• Pakistan and India conflict over Kashmir is seen as unresolvable and makes a filter for them to see the interest which lies in cooperation.

Major challenge: Afghanistan Security

In 2008, the Afghan government promised to ensure the security of TAPI pipeline within two years. Despite of efforts the Helmand, Kandahar areas around TAPI has remained the heaviest insurgency areas. Thus the Companies are unlikely to make investments within a war zone. Building it under arm guard and then defending it for long would mean a very high cost.

Conclusion

• TAPI Potential is high in the development of concerned countries (particularly of the energy deficit leading countries of SA- India and Pakistan), and in initiating an inter-regional trade and in promotion of relative peace between India and Pakistan in the region.• the US interference and its opposition to IPI; leading

India to be deprived of IPI in support of US alliance, urges it to try to get a bigger share of TAPI to its own benefit instead of its giving up IPI deal, would mean the persistence of conflict in agreement over TAPI• Afghanistan Security challenges as a major route