tacc training module 2 climate change science, causes and impacts 1

TACC Training Module 2

Climate Change Science, Causes and Impacts

1

Objectives of the Module

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Introduce scientific concepts and findings relevant for understanding climate change

Highlight observed and projected impacts of climate change on natural and human systems

Introduce organizations that can provide scientific information on climate change

Overview


Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science

Section 2: Observed and Predicted Impacts of Climate Change

Section 3: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change

Section 4: Sources of Scientific Data on Climate Change

The Importance of Climate Change Science


Climate change science allows us to: Understand how and why the climate is changing Assess how humans are influencing the climate Project how climate may change in the future Prepare for possible future changes Enact policies and modify behaviors to prevent

damage

“The more we know about a subject…the more likely our conclusions

about it are to be true”

Naomi Oreskes, 2008

Why is Climate Change Science Important from a Sub-national Perspective?

Sound weather data and forecasts important for:

Short-term planning (e.g. harvests) Emergency response (e.g. preparedness for extreme events)

Climate models help to forecast long term climate scenarios at the territorial level Important input for vulnerability assessments and

adaptation planning Fosters climate resilient development and avoids

mal-adaption Important to build up climate change science

capacity at the sub-national level


What is the Greenhouse Effect?


Source: IPCC

Complexity of the Global Climate System


Source: IPCC

Overview of Natural and Human Greenhouse Gases


Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation

GHGs naturally blanket the earth and keep it about 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without these gases in the atmosphere

Greenhouse Gas

Human Source

Natural Source

Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect

Water Vapour X 36–72%

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

X X 9–26%

Methane (CH4) X X 4–9%

Ozone X X 3–7%

Nitrous Oxide X X Very small

CFC’s X Very small

The Carbon Cycle: Natural and Human Factors


Source: UNEP

Global Warming, Climate Change, and Changing Weather


The difference between Climate and Weather Weather changes in the short term (e.g.

daily, weekly, monthly) Climate is average weather and occurs

over long time frames (e.g. 30 years) Global Warming

Refers to the overall warming of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface of the earth

Global Warming, Climate Change, and Changing Weather


Climate Variability Refers to the naturally occurring changing

patterns of the climate from year to year Climate Change

Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe weather events over long term periods

Although the climate is warming globally, local weather patterns may still feature extreme cold spells ……

Overview






Climate Variability Over Time


Source: Mann et al, 2008

Observed and Modeled Temperature Change


Source: UNEP

Examples of Observed Climate Change

Floods The frequency of floods has

increased by nearly 300% in the past 30 years

Droughts/heat waves

The most extreme three heat waves/droughts in 50 years occurred in Europe in 2003, Australia in 2009 and China in 2010

Extreme events/storms

Storms, including hurricanes have been measured to have increased intensity since the 1980s


Source: UNEP

Observed Impact: Changes in Physical and Biological Systems


Observed Impact: Sea Level Rise


Source: IPCC

Observed Impact: Glacier Loss

The annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 per cent each decade, with larger decreases in summer

Mountain glaciers and average snow cover have declined in both hemispheres.


Source: UNEP

Projected Impact on Ecosystems

Biodiversity: decreases in the forest cover will lead to loss of species

Carbon stores: thawing of the peat lands and permafrost will release huge amounts of CO2

Protective function: loss of mangrove forests leave coastal regions vulnerable to storm surges

Loss of habitat: warming temperatures on mountains mean climatic habitats shift in altitude


Projected Impact on Human Systems


Agriculture Loss of productivity as crops fail in warmer temperatures mean that between 5 million and 170 million additional people are predicted to be at risk of hunger by 2080

Freshwater Less security of water supply as more droughts

and less rain occurs Health

Increased/or changed burden of diseases as tropical diseases such malaria spread

Source: FAO Website

Projected Impact on Cities


Climate variability (e.g. flooding, landslides, heat waves, drought and sea level rise) enhances vulnerability of cities

Will have significant impact on communities infrastructure, economy and livelihoods

Urbanization may be accelerated by climate induced rural-urban migration

Source: Flickr, SixFourG

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Africa


Source: UNEP

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Asia


Source: UNEP

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Australia and New Zealand


Source: UNEP

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Europe


Source: UNEP

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America


Source: UNEP

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North America


Source: UNEP

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in the Polar Regions

The Arctic Natural Environment

Reductions in the extent of sea ice

Increase in seasonal permafrost thawing

Increased coastal erosion Human Environment

Loss of traditional ways of life Detrimental impact on

infrastructure Reduced heating costs

The Antarctic Reductions in

thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets

Changes in natural ecosystems impacting: Migratory birds Higher predators


Source: UNEP

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Small Islands


Water Reduce water resources for many small islands due to

water table inundation, reduced rainfall and reduced island size associated with rising sea levels

Model projections suggest that a 10% reduction in average rainfall by 2050 is likely to correspond to a 20% reduction in the size of the freshwater lens on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

Sea Level Rise Deterioration in coastal conditions:

Erosion of beaches Storm surge inundation Coral bleaching Reduce the value of these destinations for tourism

Threatens vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities

Projected Long Term Impact on Major Ecosystems (Beyond 2050)


Loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets

Collapse of the Gulf Stream

Destruction of the Amazon rainforest Loss of the boreal forests Changes to the West African

monsoon and loss of the Indian monsoon

Economic Implications of Climate Change


Climate change could cost from 5 to 20 percent of global GDP if no action is taken. Source: Stern Report, 2006

Costs arise from preventing, preparing for and repairing the damage from climate change impacts

Industries particularly affected Timber Fisheries Tourism Travel Agriculture

Social Implications of Climate Change

Equity: Climate change will affect

the poorest the most, causing

greater inequality both between

and within countries Migration: Some estimates suggest that nearly

200 million people will be displaced from their homes due to climate change by 2050

Conflict: Increasing level of conflict is expected due to scarcity of resources and migration


Source: UNESCO

Scenarios of Future Emissions and Temperature Increase


Source: IPCC

What Emission Reductions are Required to Protect the Global Climate?


Source: IPCC 2007

Overview






Major Greenhouse Gas Emissions Caused by Humans Carbon Dioxide

(CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide

(N2O) CFC’s


Source: IPCC (2007)

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1 Source: IPCC (2007)

CO2 Emissions by Country

Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1 Source: IPCC (2007)

GHG emissions from agriculture


Source: WRI (2005)

Global CO2 Emissions Trends


Source: NOAA 2012

Important Greenhouse Gases:


Source: NOAA

Important Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)


Important features Most important greenhouse gas (77% of all GHG

emissions) Stays in the atmosphere between 50 – 200 years Global Warming Potential of 1

Primary sources The burning of fossil fuels Deforestation and forest degradation Iron and steel production

Major sinks: Oceans Forests

Important Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide (N2O)


The fourth most significant greenhouse gas (8% of GHG emissions)

Stays in the atmosphere for an estimated 114 years

Global Warming Potential of 298 Primary sources:

Fertilizer production and use in agriculture Major sink:

Destruction in the atmosphere

Important Greenhouse Gases: Methane (CH4)


Second most significant greenhouse (14% of GHG emissions)

Stays in the atmosphere for approximately 8 years

Global Warming Potential of 25 Primary sources:

Fossil fuel mining and distribution Decomposition of landfill waste Ruminant animals (cattle and sheep) Rice agriculture

Major sinks Destruction in the atmosphere

Important Greenhouse Gases: Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)


The fifth most important group of greenhouse gases (1% of GHG)

Stay in the atmosphere ranging from 1.5 years to 12,000 years

Global Warming Potential of between 1,430 and 14,800

Primary sources: Most CFC’s and other F gases are manmade for

refrigeration and industrial processes Major sinks:

Destruction in the atmosphere

Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)


Substances that contribute to global warming and have relatively short lifetimes in the atmosphere: Black Carbon (BC) Methane (CH4) Tropospheric Ozone (O3) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce SLCP Evaluates 16 black carbon and methane mitigation

measures –could reduce global warming between 2010 and 2040 by about 0.4°C

Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce SLCP


Coalition pursues 5 initial clusters of efforts: Reducing black carbon emissions from heavy

duty diesel vehicles & engines Mitigating SLCPS and other pollutants from

brick production Mitigating SLCPS from landfills and municipal

solid waste sector Promoting HFC alternative technology and

standards Accelerating methane and black carbon

reductions from oil and natural gas production

Overview






Generating Knowledge on Climate Change: The IPCC

The IPCC www.ipcc.ch is the leading body for the

assessment of climate change Established in 1988 by UNEP and WMO Assesses all peer reviewed and published

climate change research and synthesizes the results

Coordinates global and regional projections for future climate change

Analyzes possible adaption and mitigation options

Was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace prize for its work along with Al Gore


Important Reports Published by the IPCC


Assessment reports First in 1990, the fourth and most recent published in

2007, fifth report published in September 2013 Special reports on:

Emission Scenarios Aviation Carbon Capture and Storage

Methodology reports Guidance for national greenhouse gas inventories Guidance for assessing impacts of climate change Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

Technical papers Climate Change and Water Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating

Climate Change

World Meteorological Organization


The World Climate Programme (WCP) improves climate understanding

The World Climate Research Program (WCRP) conducts research to improve projections

The WMO Regional Programme supports regional associations with their climate observations and research

United Nations Environmental Programme


Core mandate of ‘keeping the global environment under review’Global Environmental Outlook [GEO-5] - 2012Green Economy Report - 2011Priority Areas:

1. Climate Change2. Disasters and Conflicts3. Ecosystem Management4. Environmental Governance

5. Chemicals and Waste6. Resource Efficiency7. Environment under Review

Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-5)


UNEP’s flagship assessment report series – provides a comprehensive analysis of the state, trend and outlook of the global environment Facilitate the interaction between science

and policy Reliable time-series data on the state of the

environment for effective policies and programmes

Uses the integrated environmental assessment (IEA) methodology

GEO-5 Measuring Progress


Biodiversity - State of the Environment Earth systems are being pushed towards their

biophysical limits or exceeded Atmosphere

Significant progress has been made the phase-out of lead in gasoline, but little progress in climate change mitigation

Climate Change GHG emissions could double over the next 50

years, rise in global temperature of 3°C or more by the end of the century

GEO-5 Measuring Progress cont…


Land Economic growth has come at the expense of natural

resources and ecosystems, deforestation and forest degradation alone will likely cost the global economy more than the losses in the 2008 financial crisis

Fresh Water MDGs on access to safe drinking water are on track,

but 2.6 billion people still lack access to basic sanitation.

Oceans Despite global conventions, protocols and

agreements, there are continuing signs of degradation.

GEO-5 Measuring Progress cont…


Chemicals and waste Around 248,000 chemicals now

commercially available for advances in agriculture and food production, crop pest control, industrial manufacturing, sophisticated technology, medicine and electronics

National Institutions


Universities can provide climate information, particularly Geological/geographical departments Earth sciences departments Environment departments

National Meteorological Offices Airports and military stations

Regional Organizations

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)

Sahara and Sahel Organization (OSS Foundation)

Agrhymet Regional Centre, a specialized Institute of CILSS (Permanent Interstates Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel)

Specialized Agencies


NASA has three institutes that conduct climate research The Earth Observing System The Earth Science Enterprise The Goddard Institute for Space Studies

European Space Agency conducts Earth observation USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA)

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology The Atmosphere in the Earth System The Land in the Earth System The Ocean in the Earth System

tacc training module 2 climate change science, causes and impacts 1

Documents

climate change phase

climate change sciencesection

climate changehighlight

long term climate scenarios

ipccterritorial approach

unepterritorial approach

overviewterritorial

moduleterritorial approach