GLOBAL WARMING

The sun keeps us warm

The atmosphere traps extra heat

So we are getting hotter

The Net result is too much trapped heat!

1870 1920 1970 2020 20700

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

It’s Gett

ing Hotter a

nd Hotter

Trap heat and the temperature goes up!

1870 1920 1970 2020 2070 2120 2170 2220 2270 23200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

It W

ill Get

Waa

aayy

yy H

otter

With

More

CO 2

Way Up!

The big culprit is CO2

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

f(x) = 0.0123780414285093 x² − 47.6800621742056 x + 46217.239794444R² = 0.999246263704849

Greenhouse Gas CO 2

is Going Up To

o Fast

CO2 is going up – fast!

Here’s where CO2 comes from

Mostly from Fossil Fuels and Cement Production

Some from Farming And Forestry

Fossil Fuels are Used in Just About Everything We Do.

The ocean moves CO2 into storage inonly three main places in the world

The Ocean is becoming more acidic

Just like the air, the ocean is getting warmer

Record Low Ice levels

Guess what happens when the water warms up!The ice melts of course.

What happens when the land-based ice melts? The sea level rises!

Sea level rises for two reasons.1) The ice melts off the land and the meltwater flows

into the ocean2) As the ocean water generally warms up,

it expands and that also raises the sea level

The main causes of climate change are:• The sun • Volcanos• Aerosol particles – mostly sulphates• Ozone• And – you guessed it:

Greenhouse gases

The main cause of global warming? Greenhouse gases

0.00 100000.00 200000.00 300000.00 400000.00 500000.00 600000.00 700000.00 800000.00 900000.00170.00

190.00

210.00

230.00

250.00

270.00

290.00

310.00

CO2 ppm

What about the Past?800,000 Years of CO2 Changes

800,000 Years of Temperature and CO2 Changes

What did we just see?We saw that temperature and CO2 move along togetherThey both go up and they both go down at almost exactly the same time

There is a way to tell how closely related the two factors really are.

We plot temperature against CO2 and see what the scatter of points looks like

The temperature went up 10C for every 10ppm CO2The temperature was warmer with a lower CO2 level

Not surprisingly, when the CO2 and temperature go up so does the sea level

01002003004005006007008000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400Dust vs Time

Dust cont...Time before present (kyrs)

Dust

con

tent

ng/

g

• Dust containing minerals blows into the ocean when • the land plants decline and expose open soil• More dust, more ocean plants• Plants need carbon, they get it from the water and remove it• This allows the water to absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere• The less CO2 in the atmosphere, the colder it gets

Looking further into the past we find • At 400ppm CO2 the temperature is 80C• At 450ppm CO2 the temperature is about 120C

The “Tell-All” Chart: Read off the CO2 at the bottomFollow the lines to temperature, or follow the lines to sea level.

Stop CO2 tomorrow and eventually you get this

Wait 50 years and eventually you get this

Here is what we need to do

AGW

Science

Scientific Validity

Ideology

Mistrust of Science

Technological Solutions

Economic, Practical, Political Objections

Lowered Risk

Increased Risk

Goal

Impediments

Strategic Actions

Stable Climate Achieved

Integrated Action plan

Implementation

Review, monitor progress, revise

Distant Future Vision

A STABLE CLIMATE