systems thinking lab 11. overview what is a system? what is systems thinking? mechanistic thinking...
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Systems Thinking
Lab 11
Overview• What is a system?• What is systems thinking?• Mechanistic thinking vs. Systems thinking• How to use a Causal Loop diagram : Balancing loop and reinforcing loop• Case Study: Garbage Sanitation system in NY
as an Example• In class activity 1) two students Activity: 10 min 2) four students Activity: 20 min - Make a 5 min presentation: 30 min 3) Large Group Activity: 30 min
What is a System?
“An interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized around some purpose”
-Dana Meadows
What is Systems Thinking
"A discipline for seeing wholes...a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns rather than static snapshots"
-Peter Senge
• A perspective on reality
• A set of tools
• A new vocabulary
A perspective on reality…
Mechanistic Thinking
Parts
Objects
Events
Isolation
Specificity
Simplicity
Systemic Thinking
Wholes
Relationships
Structures
Interdependence
Generality
Complexity
Linear Thinking• “Laundry list”
approach• Assumption: each
activity operates independently
• Effective for many problems
• Relationships between activities are often overlooked in getting things done
Customer Satisfaction
Appealing Retail Environment
High Employee Morale
Delivery of Product Value
Good Customer Targeting
Customer Satisfaction
Appealing Retail Environment
High Employee Morale
Delivery of Product Value
Good Customer Targeting
Systems Thinking• Interactions
between activities give insight into real world complexity
• The interactions between the activities are as important as the activities themselves
Customer Satisfaction
Appealing Retail Environment
Delivery of Product Value
High Employee Morale
Good Customer Targeting
Customer Satisfaction
Appealing Retail Environment
Delivery of Product Value
High Employee Morale
Good Customer Targeting
Reinforcing
• Metaphors– Spiraling into
oblivion– We’re on a roll– On the way up– Snowballing out of
control
• Examples– Cancer– Team Morale– Bank Debts– Panic Attacks– Savings account
interestBIRTHS
PERYEAR
POPULATIONS
S
(R)
Balancing• Mechanical Systems
– Air Conditioning
• Human– Hunger– Body Temperature
• Ecological– Predator/ Prey
OPENING OFWARM WATER
FAUCET
SHOWERTEMPERATURE
S
S
(B)
DESIREDSHOWER
TEMPERATURE
O
POPULATION
CAUSAL DIAGRAMMING - NOTATION
YEARLYBIRTHS
YEARLYDEATHS
os
s
R
Population growth
B
Population decline
BIRTH RATE
s
LIFE EXPECTANCY
s
Add units of measure if this clarifies!
o
B CA
E
D
F
Moves you from this perspective:
To this:
A B
BA
E
F
CBA
E
F
SYSTEMS THINKING IN PRACTICE
System Thinking Tool: Causal Loop Diagrams
• Components of tool– Describe links
between large number of variables
– + or s = moves in same direction
– - or o = moves in opposite direction
• Types of Loops– Reinforcing– Balancing
Number of people in a city (P)
(C) Migration into a city
(M) Modernization
(G) Amount of
garbage per area
(B) Bacteria per person
(D) Number of diseases
(S) Sanitation facilities
S
SS
S +
SS
+
S+
O
O
O_
Two Types of Causal Loop Diagrams
• REINFORCING• POSITIVE• EVEN NUMBER of
or Zero NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS
• BALANCING• NEGATIVE• ODD NUMBER OF
NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS
Reinforcing loop –reinforces change with even more change; leads to exponential growth or decline
# P
EO
PLE
TIME
Two Types of Causal Loop Diagrams
• REINFORCING• POSITIVE• EVEN NUMBER of
or Zero NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS
• BALANCING• NEGATIVE• ODD NUMBER OF
NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS
Balancing loop – pushes level up or down to reach a goal (i.e., carrying capacity).
# P
EO
PLE
Number of people in a city (P)
(C) Migration into a city
(M) Modernization
(G) Amount of garbage per area
(B) Bacteria per person
(D) Number of diseases
(S) Sanitation facilities
S
SS
S
SS
S
O
O
O
Number of people in a city (P)
(C) Migration into a city
(M) Modernization
(G) Amount of garbage per area
(B) Bacteria per person
(D) Number of diseases
(S) Sanitation facilities
S
SS
S
SS
S
O
O
O
Number of people in a city (P)
(C) Migration into a city
(M) Modernization
(G) Amount of garbage per area
(B) Bacteria per person
(D) Number of diseases
(S) Sanitation facilities
S
SS
S
SS
S
O
O
Number of people in a city (P)
(C) Migration into a city
(M) Modernization
(G) Amount of garbage per area
(B) Bacteria per person
(D) Number of diseases
(S) Sanitation facilities
S
SS
S
SS
S
O
O
O
R
R
R
B
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Systems Thinking in Practice
”Long term view” means to remember the long term consequences
”System view” means to remember the feedback effects
”Holistic view” means to (try) to remember all effects
All 3 are useful, because they reduce the number of surprises
COMPANY ETHICS
COMPANY COST
COMPANY ADVANTAGE
COMPANYREPUTATION
S
S
S
0
Long Term View- Delays
COMPANY ETHICS
COMPANY REPUTATION
COMPANY ADVANTAGE
COMPETITOR’S FRUSTRATION
COMPETITOR’SETHICS
COMPETITOR’SREPUTATION
S S
S
S
S
0(B)
System View- Feedback
COMPANY ETHICS
COMPANY REPUTATION
COMPANY ADVANTAGE
COMPETITOR’S FRUSTRATION
COMPETITOR’SETHICS
COMPETITOR’SREPUTATION
S S
S
S
S
0
EMPLOYEESATISFACTION
COMPANY HIRING COSTS
WORKERPRODUCTIVITY
……AND SO ON
COMPANYCOSTS
(B)
S
S
OS
O
O
S(R)
Holistic View- All Effects
Your Task
• Team up in pairs and create two causal loops of 4 meatballs from the article Linking Population, Women and Biodiversity. Make sure that one loop is reinforcing and one is a balancing loop.
• Attribute + and - to the links and record your reasoning.
• Get together with another pair and explain loops to each other; decide on one reinforcing and one balancing loop and draw it on an overhead, large paper or chalkboard.
• Each group of four will present their two loops to the class.
Migration to a Hotspot
Urbanization
Poverty
GenderEquity
Migration to a City
Population
Deforestation Urban sprawl
Biodiversity
Transmitted Disease
Education
InternationalTrade
SustainableUse of
Natural Resources
AccessibilityTo familyplanning
Policy innovation and new programmatic
approaches
Female EconomicAnd political
power
PovertyIn the
rural area
Migration into a city
Urbanization
+
+
-
Urbansprawl
+
GenderEquity
Population
Unsustainable Use of Local
Natural Resources
+Biodiversity
-
Disease
- -
Deforestation and
fragmentation
+
-
+
Education
-
+
Sound Management
of Natural Resources
+
Ecological or Environmenta
lHealth
+
New Policies and
programmatic approaches
Accessibility to Family
service
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
Migration into a
hotspot
-
InternationalTrade