systems thinking and innovation diffusion - ait...

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AIT-TIGER LEONG INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION & LEADERSHIP CAMP

Systems Thinking and Innovation Diffusion

Robert Steele

Systainability Asia / AtKisson Group

Chiang Mai, Thailand

Inspiring Innovative Leaders of the Future


Robert Steele


AtKisson Group . . . a global network dedicated to transformative change

Current And Past Clients Include:

Levi Strauss & Co. • Ernst & Young • Nike • Baltic 21 (the 11 nations of Northern Europe) • European Sustainable Development Network

• Brother, Inc. (Japan) • Earth Charter International • Swedish SIDA’s Advanced International Training Programs • United Nations Division

for Sustainable Development Egyptian National Competitiveness Council • Government of Singapore • Greater New Orleans, Inc. • SEIYU

(Japan) • SERDP - Strategic Environmental Research & Development Program (US Government) • Seliger Forum 2010 (Russia) •

Sustainable Fashion Academy • States of Queensland, Victoria, NSW, and South Australia • Stockholm County • Sustainable Seattle •

Heinz Endowments • Toyota • UNEP • UNDP • Nile Basin Initiative • Bank of Indonesia • Volvo Cars

Global Affiliate and Associate Network


The Complex World of our Decision Making

Questioning our Decision-making models….

• Do we make good policy and investment decisions?

• Are we aware of the unintended consequences of our decisions

(including innovations)?

• Are we effective in our cross-sectoral communication and

collaboration to deal with the multi-dimensional nature of complex

problems?

• Do we go for quick fixes because it is easier to treat the

symptoms?

• Do we urgently need new and innovative ways of thinking and a

fresh approach and tools to deal with the problems facing our

societies and the planet?


Objective

To introduce to participants to the concept and

practice of systems thinking and why it is

beneficial to the innovation adoption and diffusion

process, especially for creating innovations that

contribute to a sustainable lifestyle and future.


A Little Systems thinking before we really get started . . .

How do you make toast?

Draw it on a piece of paper

No words!


Session 1: A Systems Thinking Approach to Innovation


A Sufi Tale of the five blind men and the elephant


What is the lesson here?

By fixating on the parts of a system, we miss understanding the whole


The disadvantage of Analytical Thinking… only

From a very early age we are

taught to break apart

problems: to fragment the

world.

This apparently makes

complex tasks and subjects

more manageable, but we pay

an enormous price when we

are adults . . . we can no

longer see the consequences

of our actions.

We lose our intrinsic sense of

connection to a larger whole.


Lacking a Systems Perspective… the solution to one problem can easily lead to a new and bigger problem later on or somewhere else in the system

“unintended consequences”


We need a new thinking approach!

“No problem can be solved from the same way of thinking that created it.

(Albert Einstein)

Success in the 21st Century

requires different ways of thinking

about problems, organisations,

business and ourselves.


We must learn to see and understand the world as a whole system not a collection of individual parts

Source: John Gerber, Systems Thinking Introduction, 2007


Thinking in Systems

Systems thinking is a perspective of seeing and

understanding systems as wholes rather than as

collections of parts. A whole is a web of

interconnections that creates emerging patterns.

– Peter Senge


MIT… the of Systems Thinking


Systems Thinking …

what depends on what,

what is causing what,

where are information flows,

where control decisions are made,

what information flows are critical,

And how best to manage or intervene in the system for desired results.

Systems thinking mind maps

“Systems Thinking is seeking to understand the connections among elements in a system


Overly simple

mental model

More sustainablemental model

Systems thinking is the practice of examining, and improving, our mental models


Example… Promoting Sustainable livelihoods in Vietnam… the case of Cat Ba Island

Improved

Quality of Life

Enhance

Tourism

More Tourists

More Jobs

More $$$


Modified from Maani and Nguyen (2009)

Better to start by looking at the big picture of how things on Cat Ba Island are all connected

© Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen

Water

Carbon

Deforestation

Land use

Climate

R1

Environment

?

Economic Growth

Energy use

R2

Energy

Population

Poverty

Population

Food

Agriculture

Biofuel

R3

Biofuel

Globalisation


Example: Promoting Sustainable livelihoods in Vietnam… What should we do that will not create other future problems?

Pollution

Temporary

immigration

Empoloyment

opportunity

Land required

for tourism

Naturalbeauty

Availability of

underground water

Fresh water

consumption

Employment

opportunity for local

people

+

+

Socialissues

Infrastruture

& facility

+

+

Number of

tourists

Attractiveness

of Cat Ba Island

+-

-

+

Wealth of

local people

-

+

Waste+

+

+

+

Illegal forest

exploitaion--

Total

population

+

Agricultural

Production

Livingcost

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

Conservation and

agricultural land

-

+

-

B2

B1R1

R3

R2

B3

B4

B5

B6

Studentpopulation

Assess toeducation

+

-

-

-

R5

R4

Investment+

+

+

Resident

population

+

+

Wealth of

Local

People


Pollution

Temporary

immigration

Empoloyment

opportunity

Land required

for tourism

Naturalbeauty

Availability of

underground water

Fresh water

consumption

Employment

opportunity for local

people

+

+

Socialissues

Infrastruture

& facility

+

+

Number of

tourists

Attractiveness

of Cat Ba Island

+-

-

+

Wealth of

local people

-

+

Waste+

+

+

+

Illegal forest

exploitaion--

Total

population

+

Agricultural

Production

Livingcost

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

Conservation and

agricultural land

-

+

-

B2

B1R1

R3

R2

B3

B4

B5

B6

Studentpopulation

Assess toeducation

+

-

-

-

R5

R4

Investment+

+

+

Resident

population

+

+

Wealth of

Local People

Number

of

Tourists

Increasing

Jobs

SYSTEMS are non-linear and dynamic

Source: Professor Ockie Bosch and Dr Nam Nguyen


Example of System Thinking in Practice – Industrial symbiosis


Systems Mapping Exercise

Gladstone

Region

Figure out how trends,decision-making, and information flows are

linked together in multiple cause-effect relationships

Step 1:

Map the elements and Links


7. Affordable & Clean Energy

8. Decent Work &

Economic Growth

9. Industry, Innovation

& Infrastructure

12. Responsible

Consumption

& production

13. Climate Action 15. Life on Land

14. Life below Water

2. Zero Hunger

3. Health & Wellbeing

4. Quality Education

6. Clean Water & Sanitation

1. No Poverty

5. Gender Equality

11. Sustainable Cities

& Communities10. Reduced Inequalities

16. Peace &

Justice, Strong

Institutions

The Sustainability Compass also lines up well with the 17 SDGs


2. Zero Hunger

3. Health & Wellbeing

4. Quality Education

5. Gender Equality

6. Clean Water & Sanitation

7. Affordable & Clean Energy

8. Decent Work &

Economic Growth

11. Sustainable Cities

& Communities10. Reduced Inequalities

9. Industry, Innovation

& Infrastructure

13. Climate Action

12. Responsible

Consumption

& production

15. Life on Land

14. Life below Water

1. No Poverty

16. Peace &

Justice, Strong

Institutions

THE COMPASS IS A SYSTEMIC INTEGRATION TOOL


System Thinking Tools- Connection Circle

1. Select one of the SDGs related to what

you’ve been learning

2. Identify individual elements or factors

contributing to achieving or not achieving

this goal..

2. Write your elements around the circle.

Include no more than 5 to 10.

3. Identify all of the causal connections

between the various elements.

4. Draw an arrow from the cause to the

effect.

• The causal connection must be direct.

5. Look for and identify key feedback loops

that link different elements together in a

closed loop.


What is a Connection Circle?


Connection Circle exercise

You have 15 minutes to complete your

Connection Circle.


Back to Drawing Toast


ONE KEY

Element

defining the

problem

Part 2 – Causal Systems Mapping

Following from your Connection Circle analysis, select

on element and build a Causal Systems Diagram

around it.


System Indicator Mapping

Next, start constructing a system linkage diagram.

Use one sticky note for each indicator node in your causal story.

CAUSE

Indicator

EFFECT

Indicator

ONE KEY INDICATOR

Defining the problem

CAUSE

IndicatorEFFECT

Indicator


Find the cause/effect links. Elaborate out to 2-3 layers away from the central trend – e.g., cause > cause > cause > key indicator > effect > effect > effect. Also try to find the where feedback pathways (loops) exists. EFFECT

IndicatorCAUSE

Indicator

CAUSE

Indicator

CAUSE

Indicator

CAUSE

Indicator

CAUSE

Indicator

EFFECT

Indicator

EFFECT

Indicator

ONE KEY INDICATOR

CAUSE

IndicatorEFFECT

Indicator

CAUSE

Indicator

EFFECT

Indicator

System Indicator Mapping


A Causal Diagram Story Example - Biking in Bangkok

Number of people biking in the city

Number of people participating in clubs or groups

Number of bike lanes and other infrastructure

Bicycle related Social Media activity

Bike friendly policy, programs, events

Awareness of Health & wellbeing benefits from biking

Economic value added related to biking

% of Good air days


Example System Maps


Causal Systems Diagram exercise

With your team, identify one or more connecting

feedback loops from your connection circle.

Focus on 1 key factor/indicator that you want to change

to achieve your SDG.

Use the post-it notes and clean paper to map our your

system of nodes, links and feedback.

You have 20 minutes to complete your systems

diagram,.

Use the SystemScope Handout directions to help guide

you if needed.


Exercise: Identifying your System Leverage

Points

Gladstone

Region

Leverage Points

Figure out how trends,

decision-making, and

information flows are

linked together in multiple

cause-effect relationships

Use that analysis to

identify the best leverage

points for introducing

change

Step 3: Step 4:


Small Actions can yield large results

A “leverage point” is a place in a system where a large change towards desired behavior or results can be accomplished by applying relatively few resources.

Artist: Gary LarsonPicture source: http://thwink.org/sustain/glossary/LeveragePoint.gif


Finding the Leverage Points for system intervention

Leverage points are places in your system map where you can

intervene with an projects, program, technology, policy, etc. that

will change the system relationships towards the direction that

you want and be reflected in your main Indicator.


We can use systems thinking tools such as the Iceberg to help ask the right questions towards understanding the best places to “leverage change” in a system.


A Causal Diagram Story Example - Biking in Bangkok

Number of people biking in the city

Number of people participating in clubs or groups

Number of bike lanes and other infrastructure

Bicycle related Social Media activity

Bike friendly policy, programs, events

Awareness of Health & wellbeing benefits from biking

Economic growth related to biking

Carbon emissions and Air quality


Session 2: Innovation and Innovation Diffusion – from idea to strategy


Innovation: What we do at the leverage points


Innovation

An innovation is an idea,

practice, or object that is

perceived as new by an

individual or other unit of

adoption. The

characteristics of an

innovation, as perceived

by the members of a

social system, determine

its rate of adoption.


New targets and standards

New materials and technologies

New controls and feedback mechanisms

New information flows to new people

New rules, policies, incentives

New forms of organization, cooperation, collaboration

New models, frameworks, environments

New overarching goals and visions

New knowledge, skills and capacities

New mindsets and paradigms

A NEW WILLINGESS TO TRY NEW THINGS

Adapted from “Leverage Points: Ways to Intervene in a System,” by Donella H. Meadows. Available from www.sustainer.org


Step 1: Review …

Review your System leverage points and the various key linkages that you found.

What is your change goal for your system?

What needs to change in order that the system will produce a new behaviour response.

What could you do at your leverage points to make that change?

Think about a new idea, initiative, technology, programme, or policy.

5 minutes


Step 2: Brainstorm

Use your Post-it Notes

Write your ideas on your Post-it Notes and stick them on the flip chart

Work as fast as you can!

In Pairs brainstorm ideas for initiatives that could be done at your leverage point to improve system sustainability based on your system dynamics.


the best ideas with your group and discuss how each of the ideas work towards your system change goal...and synthesize them into one GREAT IDEA for change at your leverage Point

Step 3: Share…

© AtKisson, Inc., 2016 www.atkisson.co

m

http://www.atkisson.com/


Example:

Leverage Point: Social Media

Title: “Bring a Friend Challenge”

Innovation: Use social media to organise

monthly “Bring a Friend” bike events/ride/parties,

etc. with the various bike clubs and groups.

Bikers are challenged to bring a non-biking

person with them to these events… with the hope

that they will be inspired to join.


Key Definitions

NOTE: An “innovation” is not always “new”!

Culture: Habits, practices, values, beliefs, customs, and way of life of any group, of any size — from a work team, to a whole nation.

Innovation: Anything not part of that culture that the culture decides to adopt. It could be a theoretical idea, a slang word, a new technology -- anything at all that changes how people think, talk and act.

Diffusion: The spread of an innovation through a culture, as people.


Innovation Diffusion Strategy …

Involves looking at the Innovation itself …

Pyramid Building – Strategy Level 4


Innovation Diffusion Strategy …

Involves looking at the Innovation itself …

… but also at the Cultural Context around it.



5 critical factors influencing innovation diffusion

Relative advantage

Compatibility

Complexity of transition

Possibility of testing

Visibility of benefits

Adoption probability grows if innovation has clear

advantages for product, service or current behavior

The more innovation is consistent with pre-existing

higher the adoption probability

Complex changes involved in innovation, reduce

adoption likelihood

A chance to try an innovation before making a final

decision increase adoption likelihood

The more obvious innovation benefits the greater

adoption likelihood


Adoption of innovation step process

KnowledgePerson becomes aware of an innovation and has

some idea of how it functions

PersuasionPerson forms a favorable or unfavorable attitude

toward the innovation

DecisionPerson engages in activities that lead to a

choice to adopt or reject the innovation

Implementation Person puts an innovation into use

ConfirmationPerson evaluates the results of an innovation-

decision already made


The Innovation Adoption Curve


The “Gilman Equation”:A Strategic Change-Planning Tool

N - O > CC, or ...

PerceivedValue of theNEW Idea

PerceivedValue of theOLD Way

PerceivedCOST of the

CHANGE



The Three “Avenues for Action”

AVENUE 1: PROMOTE THE NEW

Increase the Perceived Value of the New Idea. Do what marketers do:

focus on benefits, not features.

Explain to people how the New Way will improve performance, and

improve their lives. Keep the message simple and clear: "This is the

future."



PerceivedCOST of theCHANGE



“The Three “Avenues for Action”




AVENUE 2: DEMOTE THE OLD

Decrease the Perceived Value of the Old Way (Protest and Criticism)

Analyze it, show convincingly why it is bad, why it no longer makes the

grade. Make it look less desirable. Make it look out of date. Show why

the cost of continuing down that road is very, very high … or make it very

high.



The Three “Avenues for Action”




AVENUE 3: FACILITATE THE SWITCH

Decrease the Perceived Cost of Change (Facilitation, Assistance,

Subsidies, etc.). Provide incentives, subsidies, and rewards. Make it

quick, make it fun, and make it free.

Give rebates, provide training, do whatever it takes to lower people's

naturally high barriers to change. Reduce the feelings of loss, insecurity,

or threat that might be connected with giving up the old way. Above all,

"facilitate" means "make it easy."



You can analyze Innovations …

.. with the Gilman Equation:

N — O > CC

N = "The Perceived Value of the New Way”

O = "The Perceived Value of the Old Way”

CC = "The Perceived Cost of Making the Change"

In other words, for change to occur, the

new way has to be so much better than

the old way that it overcomes the

perceived cost of making the switch.



Three “Avenues for Action”:

N — O > CC

Increase N:

PROMOTE THE NEW

Decrease O:

DEMOTE THE OLD

Decrease CC:

FACILITATE THE CHANGE

Pursue All 3 Simultaneously!



Step 1: Identifying Target Group Values

Identify the main target groups for your new idea (who needs to support and participate?)

Think about the “values” that your target group currently possess regarding the…

‘old way’ that they are currently supporting or practicing that you want them to change from,

your ‘new way’ (i.e. your new idea) that you want them to adopt,

how they perceive the cost of change of switching from the ‘old way’ to your ‘new way’

And discuss them with your Compass Group before you brainstorm any diffusion strategies.



Step 2: Innovation Diffusion Strategy Development , Pyramid Construction & Reporting

1. Develop three separate but concurrent innovation

diffusion strategies based on the Gilman’s Equation

N – O > CC

2. Write out your group’s three Gilman’s equation

innovation diffusion strategies on a flip chart paper.).

3. Report to the others


Systems Level Reporting

Prepare a brief report covering . . .

1.What is your system story?

2.What are your identified‘Leverage Points for

introducing a new initiative as part of your system

change strategy?

3.What is your innovation and how will you get

people to buy-in to it, support it and adopt it?


Session 3: The AMOEBA of Innovation Diffusion and Cultural Change


Spreading Innovation . ..

Some Questions…

How does a small group spawn historical changes?

How do new ideas (or technologies, or values) spread through an entire culture?

Remember….regardless of whether the innovation is A new technology, a slang word, or a new understanding of what it means to be a human being, the process by which it spreads is called innovation diffusion.


"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”

- Margaret Mead


Introducing the AMOEBA


The Amoeba of CultureA Metaphor for Cultural Innovation & Change Process

Source: Adapted from an idea by Robert Gilman


Journey into the Amoeba

INNOVATION

CHANGE AGENTS

INNOVATORS

TRANSFORMERS

MAINSTREAMERS

LAGGARDS

REACTIONARIES

ICONOCLASTS

CONTROLLERSCURMUDGEONS

SPIRITUAL

RECLUSES

CA

MM

M

M

M

M

M

M

M

L

L

L

< R

< RI >

I >


The AMOEBA Game


What happened …. And why?

Amoeba Debrief


The Innovation Adoption Curve


Social System Innovation Diffusion

Innovations are adopted within a social system.

Social systems are governed by norms and

influenced by opinion leadership, change agents,

and the consequences of adoption.


Raching Critical Mass

The point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.

Early adopters are instrumental in getting an innovation to the point of critical mass, and hence, in the successful diffusion of an innovation.


Implications

For technology adoption, focus on those factors

(e.g., relative advantage) that are positive.

Showcase examples of practice that others can

relate to, and rely on interpersonal

communication to spread the word.

Cultivate the early adopters and transformers

who have the potential to create a critical mass.


2º 3º 4º 5º

RANKING MUNDIAL DE USUÁRIOS DE INTERNET

1º 6º

Powerful way for change agents

to affect the diffusion of an

innovation is to affect opinion

leader (i. e. transformers)

attitudes.

Persuading opinion leaders is

the easiest way to foment

positive attitudes toward an

innovation.

Leaders have the knowledge and the social skill to start

word-of-mouth epidemics

Affecting the diffusion of an innovation


2º 3º 4º 5º

RANKING MUNDIAL DE USUÁRIOS DE INTERNET

1º 6ºIdeas and products and

messages and behaviors

spread just like viruses do.

The change happens not

gradually but at one dramatic

moment, called “Tipping Point”

(the message makes an

impact) .* The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell

“Tipping Point” concept *


Key Strategy Points

Change Agents need to work with Transformers

Change Agents are more effective when they work together

Reactionaries are most effective when they discredit or disempower Change Agents

Change Agents may waste time if they spend it trying to change Reactionaries

Innovators often make ineffective Change Agents.

Innovators and Change Agents often neglect to model the innovation themselves.

Innovators often remain attached to a "pure" formulation of their idea, at the expense of the innovation's diffusion potential.


Key Strategy Points, continued

But it's easier to stop real change - to be a Reactionary -than to be a Change Agent.

Reactionaries usually feel that their actions are contributing to the good of the whole.

Iconoclasts should keep Reactionaries busy.

Iconoclasts often make terrible Change Agents, and vice versa.

Curmudgeons can make change difficult.

Many Curmudgeons used to be Change Agents, but they became disappointed and disillusioned.

Recluses can either facilitate change or retard it.


Remember the A.M.O.E.B.A.

www.atkisson.com

A = Adapt the Innovation

M = Motivate the Change Agents

O = Organize the Transformers

E = Easy Does It for the Mainstreamers

B = Build Momentum

A = Avoid the Reactionaries


Mapping your own Amoeba Strategy

Strategy for Accelerating Innovation Diffusion


Amoeba Strategy Mapping Exercise

Task

Take time to think about your own Change Initiative and

try to complete the Amoeba worksheet for all the major roles

and what your strategy might be going forward after you

have had some experience with the Amoeba and have

learned more about the social change process

10 minutes


In Summary…. A systems approach is to . . .

1. Identify a system - After all, not all things are systems. Some systems are simple and predictable, while others are complex and dynamic. Most human social systems are the latter.

2. Explain the behavior or properties of the whole system - This focus on the whole is the process of synthesis. Analysis looks into things while synthesis looks out of things.

3. Explain the behavior or properties of the question to be explained in terms of the role(s) or function(s) of the whole.


A Systems approach provides us . . .

Deeper Insight: “Understand components and their links in the system, you will understand its behavior.”

More effective and long-term Leverage: “Change a component or link in the system, and you will change the system behavior.”

Better Solutions: “Solving problems almost always involves changing systems (identify and change the limiting factor.”


Group Discussion and wrap up:

1. What did you learn and how dos it link to what

you have been learning and discussing during

the camp so far?

2. How they can apply the tools and methods in

their own lives and context?


SYSTAINABILITY ASIA /ATKISSON GROUP

www.atkisson.com


[email protected]

http://www.systainabilityasia.com/

systems thinking and innovation diffusion - ait...

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