Systems Thinking Complexity Thinking & Vision Development

Dr. Coyan Tromp

Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies

� Bachelor Future Planet Studies.� Master Environmental Management.� Minor Science for Sustainability.

Background

Assistant Professor & Curriculum DeveloperInstitute for Interdisciplinary Studies

Faculty of Science

Presentation for last year’s meeting: How to develop a sustainable curriculum

Essential elements of sustainable education:� Systems Thinking� Anticipatory Thinking or Futures Thinking� Complexity Thinking and Complexity Management � Critical Thinking� Integrative Thinking / Interdisciplinary Thinking

+ Workshop in June 2016 (Conference on implementation of SDGs)

� Systems Thinking

Today’s presentation: Links between

Food – Energy – Water nexus

� Complexity Thinking

& Vision

Development

Philosophy of Science & Vision Development for interdisciplinary studies into complex problems1. How do we gain knowledge?2. When is knowledge true?3. Is science uniform and universal? 4. Does science bring us further?5. What is really rational? 6. How do we obtain robust knowledge for complex issues?7. Where does science end and does vision begin?

In Publication: Wicked Philosophy

Systems Thinking

Example stocks-and-flows diagram for fish economy

� Examining linkages and interactions (feedback loops) between the actors and factors that form the comprising components of a system.

Complexity Thinking

� SDGs represent ‘wicked problems’ that play on different system levels and imply various (f)actors.

� No consensus on problem definition or solutions. � Non-linear interactions and retroactions.

� Self-organisation.� Emergence.� Robust & resilient up

until a certain threshold � Tipping point �

Disruption System change?

What do visions entail?

� Future oriented, scientifically grounded, value laden and policy minded insights and ideas which are captured in an attractive and inspiring overarching narrative.

� They offer influential perspectives in our search for explanations and solutions for our complex problems.

� Thinking in terms of closed loops (‘Waste is Food’), in bio/ecological and/or technological systems

� (My) claim: a good vision does justice to the complexity of the (sub)system under study

Example: Cradle to Cradle

Visions…

� Are based on assumptions that can only to a limited extent be scientifically legitimised.

� Nevertheless, visions are determining perspectives in our search for explanations and solutions.

� visions can be viewed as paradigms and vision development as a paradigm shift.

What is a paradigm?

Kuhn (1962) Structure of Scientific Revolutions:A set of assumptions, values, methods, theories,practices and communication practices that hold together a group of scientists.

Meadows (2008, pp. 162-163):“The shared ideas in the minds of society, the great big unstated assumptions (…) or deepest set of beliefs about how the world works.”

2. Paradigms – The mind-set out of which the system arise (goals, structure, rulers, delays, parameters).

1. Transcending Paradigms –Changing an overarching world-view. (Realising a transition.)

(Meadows 2008, Thinking in Systems).

Paradigm shifts – the ultimate leverage points for system interventions

Related to physical part of the system

Related to information & control part of the system

Related to underlying ideas of the system

Paradigm shifts – the ultimate leverage points for system intervention

(Source: www.compositecreative.com)

� visions

� Vision development

Examples lower level interventions

� Investment or revenu tax adjustment

� Capital, harvest or yield restrictions

Fish economy

Visions can be wrong

� Leading vision: socio-ecological system is part of socio-economic system.

� Correct vision: socio-economic system is part of overarching socio-ecologic system.

Profit

PeoplePlanet

Vision Development can lead to a paradigm shift

If the 'alternative' (correct) vision could overrule the current paradigm, the shift could lead to a tipping point in the system, which could hopefully enhance the emergence of a more viable, sustainable overall system (Rifkin, 2014, p. 297, Gladwell, 2001).

Example tipping point Towards a sharing economy?!Will Rudick – Introduction of local currency (Bangla Pesa‘s)

Trading in community Trading after introduction of banks

Trading after introduction of local currencywww.youtube.com/watch?v=04jV1zVROU8

25 year

Phase of further development Predevelopment phase

25 year

Transition towards a sustainable society?

New Paradigm

New Institutions

Old Paradigm

Old Institutions

TijdBuild

ing

a su

stai

nabl

e so

ciet

y

We zitten hierAre we here?!?

� In society in general?

� In science?

� In academic education?

� Questions I address in the last chapter of my book.

Is a transition on its way?

� (My) claim: a good vision does justice to the complexity of the (sub)system under study.

� True

� False

� Are we currently in a transition phase towards a sustainable society?

� Yes, a tipping point is near

� No, the dominant regime / system will remain in place

Questions / Discussion

Literature� Barth, M. (2015) Implementing Sustainability in Higher Education. Learning in an age of

transformation, London/New York: Routledge.� Braungarten, M. & MacDonough, W. (2002) Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make

Things, North Point Press.� Gladwell, M. (2001) The Tipping Point, New York/Boston: Back Bay Books.� Homer-Dixon, T. (2011) Complexity Science. Shifting the trajectory of civilisation, Oxford

Leadership Journal, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp.1-15.� Kuhn, T.S. (1962) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.� Meadows, D. (2008), Thinking in Systems. A primer. � Menken & Keestra (eds.) (2016) An Introduction to Interdisciplinary Research, Amsterdam:

Amsterdam Univerity Press.� Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology, and Practice, New York

etc: Kluwer Academic / Plenum Publishers.� Morin, E. (2008) On Complexity, Cresskill: Hampton Press.� Rifkin, J. (2014) The Zero Marginal Cost Society. The Internet of Things, The Collaborative

Commons, and the Eclips of Capitalism, London: Palgrave & MacMillan. � Rockström, J. et al. (2009) Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for

humanity, Ecology & Society, Vol. 14, No. 2, art. 32.� Tromp, C. (2017) Wicked Philosophy. Philosophy of Science and Vision development for inter-

disciplinary studies into complex problems, Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press (in publ.).