statistics for public policy forum 6 november 2015 1
TRANSCRIPT
Statistics for Public Policy Forum
6 November 2015
1
Structure
1. The UK population in 2014
2. How did we get here?
3. What will the population be like in the future?
4. Some implications for policy
5. Closing thoughts
3
Demographic challenges
• Sustained and continuing population growth• Uneven population growth
(geographical/age/ethnicity/over time)• The ageing population – increasing life
expectancy combined with “baby boomers” leaving working age population
• Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy• Migration leading to increased population
diversity
4
The UK population in 2014
• Mid-year estimate was 64.6 million• An increase of 0.8% on 2013 and 2% on 2011,
9.3% on 2001
• Population aged 15 and under = 18.8%• Population aged 16 to 64 = 63.5%• Population aged 65+ = 17.6%
• Dependency ratio (dependents/working age) = 614 per 1000
5
Population by age and sex: now and historical (UK)
2001 Population U16 = 20.0%Population aged 16 to 64 = 64.0%Population aged 65+ = 15.8%Dependency ratio (dependents/working age) = 623 per 1000
6
600 400 200
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
Population by age and sex: now and historical (UK)
• Cohort comparison• Estimates for 2001
“aged on” to 2014.• Shows mortality for
older ages.• Net international
migration for working ages
• Births/migration for those under 12
7
600 400 200
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
What’s been driving population growth?
8Source: Office for National Statistics Source: Office for National Statistics
Natural change/migration inter-dependence
• International migrants are often young adults• Young adults are fertile• Net inflows lead to an increase in births, net
outflows a decrease (potentially).
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Thousands
Uk born mother Non UK born mother
Ethnic composition of population by age, England and Wales, 2011
10Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics
Ethnic composition of population, England and Wales, 2001
11Source: 2001 Census, Office for National Statistics
Distribution of ethnic groups across England and Wales, 2011
12Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics
Population change at Local levels
13Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
How will the population change in the future?
• Population projections
• Take a base year (2014)
• They are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and net migration derived from analysis of recent demographic trends. These assumptions are judged to be the best that could be made at the time they are adopted.
• Alternative ‘variant’ projections also produced, high/low fertility, mortality, migration.
14
The population: now, in the past and in the future (UK)
15
2014, 64.6m
2001, 59.1m
1961, 52.8m
2039, 74.3m
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2039
Millions
Variant range Population estimates Principle projection
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Understanding “uncertainty” in population projections
16
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1250
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0 5
Thousands
Age
Variant range, 2039 2014 Population estimate Principle projection 2039 Zero net migration
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Population by age and sex, now and projection for 2039
17
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Projected population growth (%) for countries and regions of the UK
London
North East
18
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2012 Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing legislation .
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All 3&4 5 to 11 12 to 15 16 to 17 18 to 21 Working age SPA 85+
2020 2039
UK Population to grow: short term falls in some age groups
19
-9%
4%
-1%
9% 9%
-6%
6%
-3%
16%15%
1%9%
18%10% 7%
11%
33%
137%
Percentage difference from 2014
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
The ageing population
• Population aged 65+ projected to increase by 58% by 2039
• Population aged 85+ projected to increase by 137% by 2039
• Population aged 16-64 to increase by 4.8%• Dependency ratio is increasing.
• Increases in state pension age to mitigate this• Encouraging older people to remain in work• Consider the effect of international migration
20
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2039
High/low mig 65+ Estimates Principle (65+) Principle (66+)
Principle (67+) Policy (67 by 2028) Principle (68+)
1986 19910
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1982
Dependencyratio (dependents/working age*1000)
Dependency ratio: change over time under different scenarios
21
2014: 6142001: 6231982: 659
2028: 598
2039: 666
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
1987 1990-1992 1995-1997 2000-2002 2005-2007 2010-2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 20370
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980-1982 1985-
Life expectancy at birth
Males Females Males (projected) Females (projected)
Life expectancy, increased in the past, projected to increase further
22
1980-2, 71m, 77f
2014, 79m, 83f2039,84m, 87f
Source: Office for National Statistics
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (at birth), 2009-11
23
HLE as proportion of LE (%)
Source: Office for National Statistics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Age
Healthy life expectancy at a local level• Healthy life expectancy below SPA across most of
the country for males, 2011-2013
24
Upper tier Local authorities in
North East
North West
Yorkshire and The HumberEast Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
SPA (65)
Change in population, households and dwellings
25Note: dashed lines are projections
Source: Mid-year estimates and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics; Household estimates and projections & Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government
Coherence between Population and dwelling stock change, 2001-2014
26Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics; Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government
Demographic challenges
• Sustained and continuing population growth• Uneven population growth
(geographical/age/ethnicity/over time)• The ageing population – increasing life
expectancy combined with “baby boomers” leaving working age population
• Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy• Migration leading to increased population
diversity
27
Questions
• Thank you
28
International migration: A closer look
Paul Vickers
Head of Population Outputs
Office for National Statistics
6 November 2015
29
International migration time-series
30Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration and International Passenger Survey
International migration time-series
31
Who is immigrating to the UK?
32
14 are British citizens
20 are ‘EU15’ citizens (e.g. France, Spain, Italy, Germany)
12 are ‘EU8’ citizens(e.g. Poland) 9 are Romanian or Bulgarian
44 are citizens from outside the EU
For every 100 immigrants to the UK...
International Passenger Survey, provisional estimates year ending March 2015
Immigration by citizenship
33Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration
Main reason for immigration
34Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration
Other
Accompany/Join
Formal study
Work related
YE Jun 05 YE Mar 15p YE Jun 05 YE Mar 15p YE Jun 05 YE Mar 15p
Total EUNon -EU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Per cent
Political and public agenda
• Reduce net migration to tens of thousands• Majority of EU citizens immigrate for work• Over half of non-EU citizens immigrate for study• Can only be controlled by restrictions for non-EU
citizens
• EU referendum• Depending on the outcome could allow more
restrictions for migration
35
Impact of international migration 1
• Labour market
• International students
• Population growth e.g.:• Housing
• Transport
• Local areas are affected differently
• Economic performance
36
Labour market:Definite job or looking for work by citizenship
37Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey
Labour market:Work-related immigration by previous occupation
38Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey
Professional & Managerial Manual & Clerical Other
EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU EU Non-EU
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Per cent
Labour market:Skilled work visa applications by industry sector
39Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics
Labour market:Workers in different industry groups by nationality
40
2007 2014
Industry sector UK Nationals EU15 EU8 & EU2 Non-EU UK Nationals EU15 EU8 & EU2 Non-EU
Agriculture 286 3 5 2 346 4 17 3
Energy & Water 451 6 5 14 497 7 14 19
Manufacturing 3,276 58 103 105 2,631 56 189 79
Construction 2,415 35 55 49 1,999 32 112 50Distribution, hotels & restaurants 4,974 93 107 271 4,976 145 270 266
Transport & communication 2,525 49 39 128 2,342 71 96 139
Banking & finance 3,924 111 48 214 4,553 171 128 217Public admin, education & health 7,745 137 38 328 8,439 202 109 329
Other services 1,445 30 24 61 1,583 44 45 70
Total 27,041 523 425 1,171 27,365 732 980 1,172
The nationality of workers in employment in the UK by industry sector, 2007 and 2014
Source: Annual Population Survey
Thousands
Labour market: Workers in different industry groups by nationality, 2014
41
Industry sector UK Nationals1 Non-UK Nationals2
Agriculture, foresty and fisihng 346 24
Mining and quarrying 127 16
Manufacturing 2,631 324
Electricity, gas, air cond supply 171 12
Water supply, sewerage, waste 198 13
Construction 1,999 194
Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles 3,707 354
Transport & storage 1,299 170
Accommodation and food services 1,269 327
Information and communication 1,043 136
Financial and insurance activities 1,079 114
Real estate activities 319 18
Prof, scientific, technical activities 1,942 199
Admin and support services 1.212 185
Public admin and defence 1,782 70
Education 2,971 207
Health and social work 3,685 362
Arts, entertainment and recreation 745 60
Other service activities 751 70
Households as employers 54 19
Extraterritorial organisations 33 10
Total 27,365 2,883Source: Annual Population Survey
International students: Contribution to the UK economy
• Latest HESA data shows 19% of students are non-UK nationals (non-EU 14% & EU 5%)
• Flows of international students show:• 188,000 people immigrated to the UK for study
in YE March 2015• Of these 72% were non-EU citizens
42
International students: Immigration for study by institution
43Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics
Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing legislation .
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All 3&4 5 to 11 12 to 15 16 to 17 18 to 21 Working age SPA 85+
2020 2039
International students: UK Population,short term falls in some age groups
44
-9%
4%
-1%
9% 9%
-6%
6%
-3%
16%15%
1%9%
18%10% 7%
11%
33%
137%
Percentage difference from 2014
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Population growth: The effect of net migration, UK, 2039
45
Impact of international migration is regional
46
Economic performance:Impact on emigration
47Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration
Impact of international migration 2
• Impact on services e.g.:• schools
• health• benefits
• Economic impact e.g.:• economic growth
• tax receipts for public services
• local and national
48
Challenges
• Improving the evidence base to improve knowledge of impact:
• Administrative data source
• Migrant survey
• Improve communication of latest statistics for policy makers
49
Discussion
• Policy impacts of international migration
• Understanding what policy makers questions are
• Engaging with policy makers
50
Population statistics for the future
Better Statistics, Better Decisions
Sarah Crofts
Making better use of
existing data
Better decisions
Better statistics
Improving data to ‘fill the gaps’
The future of populatio
n statistics
Where are we now?
53
How is the population ageing?
Analysis
Fertility
How has
the UK
population
changed?
How does migration affect the population of the UK?
Families
Mortality
What we want : Better decisions
• Our strategy is to be more helpful to provide statistics and analysis to inform policy decisions
• We meet regularly with analysts in government departments, but we could do more
• There are gaps in understanding on the effects of population change on the economy, housing, demand for local services and social cohesion
Examples of policy area questions
Elderly – hospital / care
needs Housing
Older Workers
Schools
Childcare
Jobs and employment
Jobs for young people /
university / apprenticeships
Economic impact of migrants and
international students
What we want: Better statistics
• More frequent, cheaper and improved statistics can provide better information for policy – means better decisions
• Dependent upon Good understanding of requirements, including
policy need
Access to administrative data
Developments in administrative data to ensure it is fit for statistical purposes
Example - the contribution of migration to the changing population
• Currently based on the International Passenger Survey – provides good national level estimates, but there are gaps:Local level migration analysis difficult
Based on intentions to migrate
Illegal migration (non-EU not leaving when visas expire)
• Administrative data can help to fill these gaps
Lighter shade is net migration component of
population change
Examples of administrative data to better understand migration
• New HO exit check data – still under development
• DWP and HMRC data can be used to identify economically active migrants. Can also identify economic benefits of migration.
• Higher Education Statistics Agency data could provide more information on student migration
• NHS data
58
How do we get there?
• Ideally, data sources would be linked together• For example, New Zealand has launched its
‘Integrated Data Infrastructure’ (means bringing data sources together in one place)
‘Super File’
The journey
• Getting access to data is not easy. Better access to data sources would mean more efficient, better statistics
• Administrative systems not set up for statistical purposes, for example- Different definitions- Linking can be difficult- Timing issues
And when we are there?
• Frequent, high quality data will be available to support decision making in key policy areas, such as housing, education, migration and health
• People come to ONS first for data and analysis on population statistics
• Existing data sources are improved for statistical purposes
• New data sources would be set up with statistical benefits in mind
Making better use of
existing data
Better decisions
Better statistics
Improving data to ‘fill the gaps’
The future of populatio
n statistics
More analysis
New outputs
Better accessibility
Understanding requirements
Accessing new data
Developing data
sources
Questions for the forum
What are the big questions that ONS population statistics will need to answer?
Now?
In the near future?
In the Longer term?