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ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM STRATEGY

STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP 8-9 May 2012, Lusaka, Zambia

DRAFT REPORT

INTRODUCTION At the kind invitation of the Government of Zambia, the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) Strategy Stakeholder Workshop was held at the Intercontinental Hotel, Lusaka, Zambia from 8 to 9 May 2012. The workshop was co-hosted by Zambia (national host) and the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat (basin host). The workshop was organized by the Zambia Meteorological Department and the Zambia Department of Water Affairs. 2. The workshop was attended by 46 participants from riparian countries of the Zambezi River Basin, the SADC Secretariat, the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat, USAID, the WMO Secretariat and other national, regional and international agencies (see Annex 1).

OPENING OF THE WORKSHOP 3. Mr J. Kanyanga (Zambia) opened and chaired the workshop on behalf of the Government of Zambia. He invited the participants to introduce themselves. An opening statement was read by Mr O. Mwangase (Zambia) on behalf of Zambian Director of Meteorology and the national co-hosts, the Zambia Meteorological Department and the Zambia Department of Water Affairs. Mr Mwangase welcomed the participants to the workshop and stressed the need for the riparian countries to respond to the continuing loss of life and property to floods in Southern Africa. He asked that the meeting find ways of cementing existing cooperation and collaboration mechanisms in basin. 4. On behalf of the SADC Secretariat, Mr P. Ramoeli (SADC) also welcomed the participants stating that the high level of participation demonstrated the importance of the topic being addressed. He stressed the need for transboundary water resources management, responding to the needs of the member states, and recognizing the undertakings made by the member states in policy documents. He made specific reference to the Regional Strategic Action Plan and its relationship to the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy. 5. Mr M. Mutale (IZS) welcomed participants on behalf of the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat (IZS). Mr Mutale reminded participants of the foundations of the IZS and the developments associated with the Zambezi Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Strategy. He stressed that ZAMCOM needs to pay particular attention to the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy as it relates to the IWRM Strategy and the impacts of climate change on water resources management in the Basin.

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6. On behalf of USAID/OFDA, and Ms T. Sezin in particular, Mr C. Barrett (USAID/OFDA) thanked the co-hosts for agreeing to host the workshop, noting that it was an important step in the review and adoption of the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy and one that would assist in seeing the ownership of the initiative rest firmly with the Zambezi River riparian countries, basin and regional entities. 7. Mr B. Stewart (WMO) welcomed participants on behalf of the WMO Secretariat, Mr Michael Jarraud, and gave thanks, in particular, to the efforts of the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy National Focal Points and their alternates for their efforts over the past few years in assisting the activities associated with the project. Mr Stewart stressed the need for close cooperation between National Meteorological Services and National Hydrological Services in the provision of flood forecasting and early warning forecasts and warnings. OBJECTIVES OF THE WORKSHOP 8. The objectives of the 2 day workshop were presented as:

1. To review the findings and recommendations contained in the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy Discussion Document;

2. To discuss changes needed to improve the Strategy, including regional and technical issues associated with establishing a basin wide FFEWS; and

3. To approve and agree to forwarding the revised Zambezi FFEWS Strategy to ZAMCOM TTEC for endorsement.

BACKGROUND AND OUTCOMES ACHIEVED TO DATE 9. Mr C. Barrett (USAID/OFDA) made a presentation on the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy - How did we get here? 10. Mr Barrett noted that the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy had six main activities, namely:

1. Regional Consultation Meeting, held in Maputo, Mozambique, 1-3 December, 2009 2. National Consultations - August 2011 3. A proposal for a demonstration project 4. Development of the proposal for a basin-wide Flood Early Warning Strategy 5. Basin-wide Regional Meeting 6. Donor Meeting

11. The highlights of Maputo Regional Consultation Meeting included the following:

• Forty six experts representing NMHSs and disaster management offices (DMOs) from six countries in the basin and representatives of regional and international organizations participated in the meeting;

• It was noted that there was a need to strengthen the institutional and technical capacity of the countries to be capable of operating modern FFEW systems;

• Experts also indicated that convincing governments to be committed to investment in FF & EW and bringing all countries in the Zambezi River Basin to actively participate in a project in order to improve and sustain basin wide cooperation are major challenges in the region; and

• Based on the discussions at the meeting a regional consensus on development of a flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi Basin based on a strategy was achieved.

12. During the period 7 to 26 August 2011, in support of strategy formulation, three USAID-WMO teams conducted concurrent national consultative visits to Zambezi riparian

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countries to seek information needed to formulate a basin-wide strategy. These activities were supported by the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy National Focal Points. Pre and post national consultation meetings were held in Gaborone, Botswana, hosted by the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat. 13. The National Consultation reports provide data and information on the various components of each country’s end-to-end system, including existing practices, current technical and operational capacities for:

• Monitoring of climate, weather and rivers/lakes; • Understanding the hydrological response of the river system; • Flood Forecasting and Early Warning systems; • Providing information to decision makers, understanding gaps that will

improve decision making; • Development of warning products and their format; • Coordination among the various institutions; and • Dissemination of warnings to the population at risk and other stakeholders.

14. Mr Barrett described in detail the elements of the end-to-end flood forecasting and early warning system, namely:

• Data; • Communication; • Forecast; • Decision Support; • Notification; • Warning People: and • Response Actions.

15. The eight country National Consultation Reports were reviewed and approved by countries during the period October 2011 to March 2012. 16. The draft Zambezi FFEWS Strategy Discussion Document was released during April 2012. The goals of the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy are to define:

• Roles and responsibilities of the institutions involved; • Appropriate technologies and systems; • Required human resources and services; • Operational protocols and information dissemination; • Delivery of services; and • Partnerships

17. The Regional Stakeholders workshop is this event and the Donors meeting will be held later in the year subject to the review and adoption of the Strategy. PRESENTATION OF ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING STRATEGY DISCUSSION PAPER 18. Mr R. Paulson (USAID/OFDA) made a presentation on the Zambezi FFEWS Strategy Discussion Document. Mr Paulson noted that the Strategy is intended to provide a policy framework for planning a comprehensive, integrated flood forecasting and warning system or protocol for the Zambezi River Basin. The structure of the Strategy includes the following sections:

1. Findings; 2. Discussion Points; 3. Performance Indicators;

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4. Next Steps; and 5. Annex on National and Regional Responsibilities.

19. The sections of the draft Strategy on Findings and Discussion Points are organized around the following elements:

• Regional Flood Forecasting and Early Warning; • National Organizational Issues; • Basic Hydro-meteorological Observational Infrastructure; • Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System; • Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings; • Human and Technical Capacity; and • Sustainability.

20. The section of the draft Strategy on Performance Indicators has been organized around the following elements:

• Stakeholder’s needs - Objective measures of social and economic benefits; • Continuing Measures - Assuring that stakeholder needs and performance

requirements are met and documented; and • Costs and Benefits - The benefits

– of saving lives and reducing property damage due to floods; – achieved via Integrated Water Resources Management; and – potentially can exceed long-term capital and operational costs of

implementing the Strategy, as has been demonstrated in many parts of the world.

21. Mr Paulson expressed the need to consider more studies on determining the economic benefits of flood forecasting and early warning systems and suggested that undertaking such studies may be of interest to academia. 22. The section of the draft Strategy on Next Steps is organized around the following elements:

• Strategy Acceptance – This meeting to gather Strategy feedback – ZAMCOM TTEC review – ZAMCOM Ministerial review

• Preparation of Investment-Ready Project Proposals that: – Meet defined sets of national and basin-wide needs – Are consistent with an International Cooperating Partner’s investment

guidelines – Have sufficient detail, and probabilities of success and sustainability – Are supported by Ministries of Finance

23. Mr Paulson stated that the approval of the strategy can trigger a long-term initiative to establish a basin-wide entity to cooperate with national counterparts in strengthening (a) river forecasts and warnings and (b) Integrated Water Resources Management in the Zambezi River Basin. The draft roles and responsibilities of such a basin-wide entity and the national entities have been provided as an Annex to the Strategy. 24. Mr Paulson concluded by stating that the Strategy has implications for defining specific projects via a participatory process to:

• Strengthen national hydro-meteorological and warning institutions; • Establish a basin-wide institution with specified responsibilities and limits; • Provide basin-wide flood forecasts and warnings; and • Strengthen Zambezi River forecasts.

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GENERAL DISCUSSION ON THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING STRATEGY DISCUSSION PAPER 25. The participants held a general discussion on the draft Zambezi FFEWS Strategy Discussion Document that had been circulated to all participants prior to the workshop. The main issues raised during this general discussion included:

• General comments related to the overall structure and content: – A second Annex with a very brief Action Plan indicating short, medium

and long-term action areas would add value to the draft document; – Getting the terminology right in the document is essential, in particular

the distinction between national, basin and regional scales; – The linkage between the Strategy and the Zambezi IWRM Strategy

was fundamental and essential to be identified and maintained; and – Ensuring that the User community was identified as a key stakeholder

and that the system should be user driven was strongly supported. • The possibility of establishment of a basin-wide entity, it was stressed that

there was a need for: – The importance of the national roles and responsibilities and improving

capabilities at the national level; – Clearly defined and agreed roles and responsibilities; – Recognition of existing policies and agreements; – A strong coordination and facilitation role; – Not creating a new organization, but including the entity under the

auspices of the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat or its successor; – Arrangements for sustainability; and – A staged and parallel process of definition and implementation.

• Data sharing within the Basin: – The current data sharing arrangements under both SADC and IZS

(ZAMWIS); and – The need for data standards and interoperability of data transfer

formats, etc. • Infrastructure:

– The need to build on and/or learn from other initiatives that have included related infrastructure (e.g. SADC-HYCOS).

• Modelling: – The importance of linking meteorological and hydrological model; and – The need to enable a wide range of models to cover the variety of

needs within the basin (e.g. hydraulic, reservoir operations, etc.). BREAK-OUT GROUPS ON THE SPECIFIC COMPONENTS OF THE STRATEGY 26. The participants broke into three break-out groups to discuss the parts of the draft Zambezi FFEWS Strategy Discussion Document:

• Group 1 (Chair: Mr W. Chimwaza (Malawi) ; Rapporteur: Mr G. Van Langenhove (Namibia)) – National Organizational Issues; and – Human and Technical Capacity.

• Group 2 (Chair: Mr A. Kanemba (Tanzania); Rapporteur: Mr Manuel Malaze (Mozambique)) – Basic Hydro-meteorological Observational Infrastructure; and – Unified Hydrologic Modelling Forecasting System.

• Group 3 (Chair: Mr V. Choga (Zimbabwe); Rapporteur: Mr M. Quintino (Angola))

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– Regional Flood Forecasting and Early Warning; and – Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings.

REPORTING BACK FROM BREAK-OUT GROUPS 27. The deliberations of the break-out groups were presented by representatives from each group:

• Group 1 – Mr W. Chimwaza (Malawi) • Group 2 – Mr M. Malaze (Mozambique) • Group 3 – Mr M. Quintino (Angola)

28. Mr Chimwaza stressed the importance of flood forecasting and early warning systems to safety of life and protection of property. He noted that the break-out group were in the main in agreement to the content of Strategy Discussion paper. He did however highlight a number of issues including: National Organizational Issues

• The need for cooperation and collaboration both between countries and between national agencies (FFEWS stakeholders, for example, meteorological services, hydrological services, dam operators and emergency services) within each country. Duplication of effort needs to be reduced, through improved cooperation.

• The legal mandate of the national agencies must be recognized and the strategy needs to be clearer on what is meant by the legal mandate.

• The value-benefits of flood forecasting and early warning services need to be clearly identified and promoted.

Human and Technical Capacity • The loss of trained staff (brain-drain) and a lack of technical equipment and

training opportunities remain a challenge for the countries. • Climate change is having an impact, but also assisting in terms of raising

awareness to water related issues. • Sustainability of the FFEWS was seen as essential.

29. Issues raised during the discussion of this group’s presentation included the issuing of seasonal forecasts on a more regular basis and continuing more detailed discussion on the topic of the legal mandate. 30. Apart from specific suggested edits to the text, Mr Malaze raised the following issues in his presentation: Basic Hydro-meteorological Observational Infrastructure

• The need for information about the status of the (real-time) stations; • The need to provide information (statistics) on how the stations decline; • The accuracy and reliability of the transmission and data collection from the

stations remains a challenge; • How to share the costs for operations and maintenance of stations amongst

all stakeholders; • Standardization of the networks data collection procedures; • Improvements in data collection, analysis and storage are necessary and a

consistent data manage system would be of benefit. • Data sharing agreements need to build on those in place already. • Issues of vandalism and the availability of parts and replacement are a

continuing challenge in the basin. • Information on the value of the water resources data is required. • Gauge readers need training to understand why they are collecting the data.

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• There must be some stations that are critical for modeling. There needs to be a backup of stations that are operating and for what purpose.

Unified Hydrologic Modelling Forecasting System • There is a need to use a standardised model approach in the basin, but this

needs to be a phased approach and include an inventory of existing models. • Calibration and verification of models is essential. • Use must be made of the existing capabilities. • The map in the strategy needs to be correct in the document for the Zambezi

delta.

31. Additional points raised during the discussion included the standardised model approach being implemented in Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia. The use of appropriate tools was again stressed. Consolidation of the information that came out of the national consultations was suggested as part of the inventory of existing models. Holding of the seasonal forecasting meetings with both the meteorological and hydrological present would improve the value of these activities. Training in data collection (gauge reading) was also raised and the Guide to Hydrological Practices and Manual on Streamflow Gauging was pointed to as a source of information. 32. The recommended changes from the deliberations of the break-out groups have been incorporated into the revised Zambezi FFEWS Strategy (Annex 2). 33. Mr Quintino made the following points in his presentation:

• The need of measuring equipment for data collection and exchange. • Commitment by member states to release funds for operation and

maintenance of equipment. • The need for economic analysis of extreme events (floods and droughts). • The importance of the role played by the Zambezi Water Information System

(ZAMWIS) as platform for information sharing.

34. With respect to the improvement of national institutions and the creation of the Regional Center the following scenarios were proposed: • The need for starting with the improvement of national institutions until they

reach satisfactory performance, while defining the mandate of a Regional Center (Alternative I)

• Start the improvement of national institutions until they reach satisfactory performance, while the start of the Regional Center will take place relatively later (Alternative II).

• Start both national institution and the Regional Center simultaneously (Alternative III).

35. The group had no comments to make on the Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings section. However, it highlighted the following:

• Improve the coordination mechanisms of National Disaster Management Forums.

• The need for signature of Memoranda of Understanding by member states for the rescue of population living in border areas

36. Additional points raised were the need to recognize the economic value of the basin and hence the aspects of disaster risk reduction and community participation. Also, the need

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to recognize the end users including the general public in the implementation of the strategy is essential. FINALIZATION OF STRATEGY 37. The Strategy Discussion paper was revised taking into account the points raised during the break-out groups and the following discussions and the revised Draft Document can be found in Annex 2. DEMONSTRATION PROJECT 38. Mr V. Schneider and Mr O. Shela made a presentation on the proposed demonstration project. During the discussions it became apparent that there was a need for the parties involved to get together for a brief side meeting to identify the next steps and agree on a process to implement the demonstration project as agreed at the Maputo meeting. The side meeting was attended by representatives from USAID/OFDA, WMO, Malawi, Mozambique and ARA Zambeze. It was agreed that the outcomes of the meeting would be provided to the SADC Secretariat and IZS after the meeting. The side meeting agreed on the following actions:

Actions Responsible Deadline

Identify priority stations to be used, including location status, parameters, etc

Mozambique1/Malawi 18/05/2012

Rehabilitate some if necessary Mozambique/Malawi Contact DWA South Africa and ask Hannes’s assistance to do the diagnosis on target HYCOS stations

Mozambique/Malawi 30/05/2012

Ask for permission from other countries to assess HYCOS information for demonstration purpose

Mozambique/Malawi 30/05/2012

Circulate the demonstration project proposal to Mozambique and Malawi

WMO/USAID 30/06/2012

Assess the possibility for bank transfer to either ARA Zambeze or Department of Water Affairs – Mozambique and provide feedback to WMO

Mozambique 18/05/2012

CONCLUSION

39. The participants at the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy basin-wide Workshop reviewed, revised and adopted the draft Zambezi River Basin FFEWS Strategy (Annex 2). It was agreed countries would provide final additional comments by 30 June 2012 through their ZAMCOM TTEC members.

RECOMMENDATIONS

40. The participants at the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy basin-wide workshop strongly urged that the arrangements for the Demonstration project, as agreed at the Maputo Workshop, be implemented as soon as possible.

41. The participants at the Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy basin-wide Workshop made the following recommendations:

1 The tasks are directed to ARA‐Zambeze 

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1. That the ZAMCOM TTEC should comment on the draft Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy and endorse a process for its finalization.

2. That the Strategy be presented to the Zambezi Council of Ministers for final approval.

3. That a Steering Committee for the implementation of the Strategy be

established, under the auspices of ZAMCOM.

4. That the TTEC, through the IZS, begin action on the following priority areas:

• Develop a Concept Paper for how you would operationalize a basin-wide FFEWS, based on an analysis of the information collected from the national consultations.

• Commence the design of a FFEWS Strategy Implementation Plan, addressing the above elements;

• Undertake an evaluation of the data and information needs and requirements specifically addressing gaps.

• Commence a process for establishment of standards and protocols for data collection, data transmission, data storage and data sharing;

• Identify and agree on basin-wide data collection, data management and equipment standards;

• Develop a basin-wide proposal for the Zambezi FFEWS modelling framework;

• Address current modelling capabilities and gaps as identified through the national consultations against the agreed basin-wide framework;

• Design a capacity development program to support the FFEWS Strategy addressing all of the above elements; and

• Commence the design of a FFEWS Strategy Implementation Plan, addressing the above elements.

CLOSURE OF THE WORKSHOP 42. In closing the workshop representatives from the Zambia Meteorological Service, the Zambia Department of Water Affairs, the SADC Secretariat, the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat, USAID/OFAD and the WMO Secretariat thanked the participants for active and productive involvement and the chair of the meeting, Mr J. Kanyanga (Zambia), for his outstanding contribution to the outcomes of the meeting. USAID/OFDA and WMO expressed their appreciation to the co-hosts the Zambia Meteorological Service, the Zambia Department of Water Affairs and the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat for their support and assistance with the workshop. The workshop closed at 16:30 on Wednesday 9 May 2012.

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ANNEX 1 ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN-BASIN-WIDE STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATION WORKSHOP

ON THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN FLOOD FORECASTING & EARLY WARNING STRATEGY, LUSAKA, ZAMBIA, 8-9 MAY 2012

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

ANGOLA

Mr Francisco Osvaldo Sebastiao Neto Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Geofísica - INAMET Directeur Général Rua do Gamek à Direita, S/N - R/C P.O. Box 1228-C LUANDA

Cell : 244 923 302 387 Email: Francisco.neto@inamet.gov.ao

Mr Manuel Quintino National Director of Water Resources Ministry of Energy and Water. Rua Rainha Ginga, No. 210 1º Andar LUANDA

Tel : +244 912 242 161 Cell : +244 924 986 232 Fax : +244 222 339 988 Email : quintinos@nexus.ao Manuel-quintino59@yahoo.com.br

BOTSWANA Mr Kalaote Kalaote Director Department of Water Affairs Private Bag 0029 GABORONE

Tel: +267 3607251 Cell: +267 71779048 Fax: +267 3903508 Email: kkalaote@gov.bw

Mr Stanley Ndhlovu IFRC Regional Disaster Management Coordinator Southern Africa International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent Societies 135 Independence Avenue P.O. Box 485 GABORONE

Tel: +267 3950090 Cell: +267 76574616 Fax: +267 3912352 Email: Stanley.ndhlovu@ifrc.org

SADC BOTSWANA Mr Phera Ramoeli Senior Program Officer Directorate of Infrastructure and Service - Water Division Private Bag 0095 GABORONE

Tel : +267 395 1863/ 364 1854 Cell: +267 71424876 Fax : +267 3972848 Email: PRamoeli@sadc.int

MALAWI

Mr Winston S. Chimwaza Chief Meteorologist Prediction Dept. of Climate Change & Meteorological Services P.O. 1808 BLANTYRE

Tel: +265 1 822 014 Cell :+265 8888 59746 Fax: +265 1 822 215 Email: winstonchimwa@yahoo.co.uk metdept@metmalawi.com operations@metmalawi.com

Mr Hyde Sibande Tel: +265 1 770 344

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Principal Hydrologist Ministry of Water Development and Irrigation Private Bag 390 Capital City LILONGWE

Cell: +265 999 668 135 Fax: +265 1 773 737 Email: hydesibande@yahoo.co.uk hydesibande@malawi.net

Mrs Modesta Kanjaye The Director Department of Water Development Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development P.O. Box 390 LILONGWE

Tel: +265 1 773 762 Cell: +265 888 853 188 Fax: +265 1 773 737 Email: mbkanjaye@malawi.net

Mr Osborne SHELA 10/273 Blantyre Street Box 31231, Capital City LILONGWE

Tel: +265 120 1119 Cell: +265 8888 23340 Email:Osborne.shela@gmail.com

MOZAMBIQUE Mrs Rute Mateus Nhamucho Civil Engineer National Directorate of Water Department of Water Resources Management Imprensa Road, Nº 162 MAPUTO

Tel: +258 21309862 Cell: (+258) 824093670 Fax: +258 21 305 240 Emails: rumamucho@yahoo.com.br rnhamucho@dnaguas.gov.mz

Mr Jonas Zucule National Institute of Meteorology INAM Meteorologist Rua de Mukumbura 164 C.P. 256 MAPUTO

Tel: +258 827417070 Cell: +258 827417070 Fax: +258 21 491150 Email: jonas_z@inam.gov.mz jzucule@gmail.com

Mr Manuel Afonso Malaze ARE-Zambeze EN 7, CP 67, Bairro Samora Machel TETE

Tel: +258 252 23907 Cell: +258 82 2702344 Fax: +258 252 23908 Email: manuelmalaze@yahoo.com.br

Mr Gustavo Cornelius Jessen Hidroelectrica de Cahora Bassa

Tel: 258 823 074760 Cell: 258 252 82221/4 Fax: 258 252 82193 Email: Gustavo.jessen@hcb.co.mz

NAMIBIA Ms Jacobine Taukondjele Amutenya Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Private Bage 13193 WINDHOEK

Tel: +264 61 2087195 Cell: +264 81 4082869 Email: jtamutenya@gmail.com

Ms. Albertina Anderson Namibia Meteorological Service P/Bag 13224 WINDHOEK

Tel: 061 287 7028 Cell: 081 4950612 Fax: 061 2877085 Email: albertina57@gmail.com

Mr Guido Van Langenhove Head:Hydrology Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry

Tel: +264 61 2087257 Cell: +264 81 1244180 Fax: +264 61 2087256

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Private Bag 13193 WINDHOEK

Email: langenhoveg@mawf.gov.na guidovanlangenhove@yahoo.fr

SOUTH AFRICA Dr Marcus Wishart Senior Water Resource Specialist International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (WB), Africa Water Resources Management Unit 442 Rodericks Road, Lynnwood 0081 PRETORIA

Tel: +2712 742 3134 Cell: +27 71 684 4580 Email: mwishart@worldbank.org Mr Cecil Nundwe in Zambia will also attend (Dr Wishart’s colleague)

Mr Hein Zeelie Associate Humanitarian Affairs Officer United Nations Office for the Coordination

of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) Regional Office for Southern Merafe House 11 Naivasha Road Sunninghill JOHANNESBURG

Tel: +27115171665 Cell: +27829081441 Email: zeelie@un.org

TANZANIA Dr George Lugomela Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation P.O. Box 9153 DAR ES SALAAM

Tel : +255 22 2450562 Cell : +255 784 574122 Fax : +255 22 2450560 Email : lugomela@yahoo.com

Mr Augustine Kanemba Tanzania Meteorological Agency P.O. Box 3056 DAR ES SALAAM

Tel : +255 22 24607068 Cell : +255 784 251 301 Fax : +255 22 246 0735 Email : kanemba@meteo.go.tz

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Mr Curtis B. Barrett Hydrometeorological Hazard AdvisorSRF USAID Office of Foreign Disaster

Assistance Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian 1300 Pennsylvania NW WASHINGTON, DC

Tel: (H) +1 301 252 9189 Cell: +1 301 252 9189 Email: cubarrett@usaid.gov curtis.barrett@verizon.net cbarrett@ofda.gov

Mr Richard Paulson Water Resources & Flood Management

Consulting, LLC 7896 Hart Glen Court St Michaels MD 21663-2728

Tel: 410 745 2060 Cell: 703 994 8672 Email: Richard.w.paulson@earthlink.net dickpaulson@gmail.com

Mr Verne Schneider U.S. Geological Survey Reston Virginia

Tel: 1703 648 5230 Cell: 1571 215 5788 Fax: 1703 648 5644 Email: vrschnei@usgs.gov

Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat Ms. Leonissah Abwino Munjoma Information and Communications Specialist Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat The Zambezi Watercourse Commission

(ZAMCOM) Fairgrounds Office Park, Plot No. 50676 Block C, P.O. Box 45169

Tel: +267 3908148 (Direct), +267 365 6662 (General) Cell: +267 74747189-+26776475788 Fax: +267 3909368; Mobile: +267 76475788 and +267 74747189 Alt. email: Leonissah@gmail.com lmunjoma@zambezicommission.org

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GABORONE Mrs Majohn Hambira Interim Zamcom Secretariat The Zambezi Watercourse Commission

(ZAMCOM) Fairgrounds Office Park, Plot No. 50676 Block C, P.O. Box 45169 GABORONE

Tel: +267 3656664 Cell: +267 73722958 or +267 717 22958 Fax: +267 3908148 Email: mhambira@zambezicommission.org

ZAMBIA Mr Oversease Mwangase Deputy Director Zambia Meteorological Department P.O. Box 30200 LUSAKA

Cell: +260 955 796 082 Fax: +260 211 25 27 28 Email: mr-mmilk2@zambia.co.zm

Mr Samuel MWALE Zambezi River Authority Kariba House 32 Cha Cha Cha Road P.O. Box 30233 LUSAKA

Tel: +260 211 227971 Cell: +260 977 801 307 Email: mwale@zaraho.org.zm

Mr Pherry C. Mwiinga Zambezi River Authority Kariba House 32 Cha Cha Cha Road P.O. Box 30233 LUSAKA

Tel: 021 2279703 Cell: 0977 697102 Fax: 021 227498 Email: mwiinga@zaraho.org.zm

Mr Namakando Chrispin Zambezi River Authority Kariba House 32 Cha Cha Cha Road P.O. Box 30233 LUSAKA

Tel: +260 211 227970/3 Cell: +260 977 807758 Fax: +260 211 227498 Email: namakando@zaraho.org.zm namakandoc@yahoo.com

Mr Peter Chola Assistant Director Department of Water Affairs Ministry of Energy and Water Development P.O. Box 50288 10101 LUSAKA

Tel: 243583 Cell : 0964637050 Email: pchola@mewd.gov.zm

Mr Peter Jul Larsen Deputy Royal Danish Embassy Zambezi Lead ICP 5219 Haile Selassi Avenue PO. Box 50299 LUSAKA

Tel: +260 (1) 25 42 77 Cell: +260 977771096 Email: pejula@um.dk Web: www.zambia.um.dk

Mr Jose Chiburre Programme Leader Joint Zambezi River Basin Environmental

Flows Programme WWF Zambia Lo Angeles Boulevard Longacres P.O.Box 50551 RW

Tel: +260 211 255 598 Cell: +260 976872949 Fax: +260 211 253749 Email: chiburre@yahoo.com.br jchiburre@wwfzam.org

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LUSAKA Mr Oscar Silembo Senior Freshwater Ecologist Joint Zambezi River Basin Environmental

Flows Programme WWF Zambia Country Office Los Angeles Boulevard, Longacres P.O. Box 50551 LUSAKA

Tel: +260 211 255598 Cell: +260 977 863089 Fax: +260 211 253 749 Email: osilembo@wwfzam.org oscarsilembo@yahoo.com

Mr Cecil Nundne World Bank LUSAKA

Tel: 0955906588/252811 Cell: 0973453429 Email: cnundwe@worldbank.org

Mrs Anderson Banda Disaster Management Unit LUSAKA

Cell: 0976 034653 Fax: 255725 Email: anelybanda@hotmail.com

Dr Joseph K. Kanyanga Zambia Met Department LUSAKA

Tel: 260 211 252728 Cell: +260 977 698781 Fax: +260 211 252728 Email: jkkanyanga@yahoo.com

Mr Willie Kalunga Zambia Environmental Management

Agency LUSAKA

Tel: 097 7 857994 Cell: 095 5 857994 Fax: 260 211 254164 Email: wkalunga@zema.org.zm

Mr Romas Kamanga ZESCO Ltd LUSAKA

Tel: +260 211 362428 Cell: +260 955 920 147 Fax: +260 211 236312 Email: rkamanga@zesco.co.zm

Mr Tibaire Emmanuel Climate Change Facilitation Unit LUSAKA

Tel: 0211224765 Cell: 0976 675 788 Email: tibairee@yahoo.com

Mr Sinachikypo Kenneth Zambia Meteorological Department LUSAKA

Tel: +260 211 257889 Cell: +260 211 0975170618 Fax: +260 211 252712 Email: simubala@yahoo.com

Ms Akakulubelwa Kasiku Zambia Meteorological Department LUSAKA

Tel: + 260 211 257912 Cell: 097735 3221

Email: kasikuakakululehwa@yahoo.com Mr Phiri Moses EBS LUSAKA

Cell: 0977764214 Fax: +260 251 925

ZIMBABWE Mr Terence Mushore Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe Corner Hudson, Drive and Bishop Gaul Avenue P.O. Box BE150 Belvedere, HARARE

Tel: +263 4 778 176 Cell: +263 736 563 628 Fax: +263 4 778 161 Email: tdmushore@gmail.com

Mr Khanzira Prossy SARDC, IMERCSA Zimbabwe

Cell: 077 4 719 550 Email: khanzira@gmail.com

Mr Zvikomborero Manyangadze Ministry of Water

Tel: +263 4 793914 Cell: +263 4 331 544

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Private Bag 7767 Causeway, HARARE

Fax: +263 4 722 733 Email: zmanyangadze@hotmail.com

Mrs Egline Tauya Head of Programme, Southern African

Research & Documentation Centre (SARDC) I Musokotwane Environment Resource

Centre for Southern Africa (IMERCSA) 15 Downie Ave. Belgravia, Box 1590 HARARE

Tel: 263 4 791141 Cell: 263 772 334843 Fax: 263 4 791271 Email: etauya@sardc.net

Mr Vavarirai Choga The Director for Water Resources Development and Management P.O. Box 7767 Causeway, HARARE

Tel: +263 4 706049 Cell: +263 712 884317 Fax: +263 4 722 733 Email: vh.choga@gmail.com

WMO SECRETARIAT (Switzerland) Mr Bruce Stewart Chief Basic Systems in Hydrology Climate and Water Department World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 Bis Avenue de la Paix, C.P. 2300 1211 Geneva 2

Tel : +41 22 730 83 30 Fax : +41 22 730 80 23 Email : bstewart@wmo.int

Mr Datius Rutashobya Senior Programme Manager Development and Regional Activities Department World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 Bis Avenue de la Paix, C.P. 2300 1211 Geneva 2

Tel : +41 22 730 83 39 Fax : +41 22 730 80 53 Email : drutashobya@wmo.int

Ms Natacha Baverel Senior Secretary Climate and Water Department World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 Bis Avenue de la Paix, C.P. 2300 1211 Geneva 2

Tel : +41 22 730 80 70 Fax : +41 22 730 80 23 Email : nbaverel@wmo.int

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ANNEX 2

Zambezi Watercourse Commission

Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy

Discussion Document

May 2012

Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and

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Early Warning System Strategy Discussion Document

Table of Contents Page

Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction..............................................................................................................................................................2 Findings ......................................................................................................................................................................3 Basin­wide Flood Forecasting and Early Warning............................................................................................................... 3 National Organizational Issues......................................................................................................................................................... 4 Basic Hydrometeorological Observational Infrastructure............................................................................................... 4 Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System................................................................................................................. 5 Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings .................................................................................................................. 5 Human and Technical Capacity........................................................................................................................................................ 5 Sustainability................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 

Discussion Points....................................................................................................................................................5 Basin­wide Flood Forecasting and Early Warning............................................................................................................... 6 National Organizational Issues......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Basic Hydrometeorological Observational Infrastructure............................................................................................... 6 Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System................................................................................................................. 6 Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings .................................................................................................................. 7 Human and Technical Capacity........................................................................................................................................................ 7 Sustainability................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Organizational Responsibilities........................................................................................................................................................ 7 

Performance Indicators........................................................................................................................................7 Next Steps...................................................................................................................................................................8 Strategy Acceptance................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Investment­Ready Project Proposals............................................................................................................................................. 8 

Project Proposals............................................................................................................................................8 Project-Proposal Reviews ............................................................................................................................9 Projects implementation ...............................................................................................................................9 

Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................9 Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................................9 Annex 1 .................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Basin­wide Flood Forecasting and Warning Entity.................................................................................................. 11 Draft National and Basin­wide Responsibilities ......................................................................................................... 11 

National ............................................................................................................................................................11 Basin-wide.......................................................................................................................................................12 

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Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and

Early Warning System Strategy – Discussion Document Overview Currently, there is no comprehensive, integrated flood warning system or protocol for the Zambezi River Basin, leaving flood-prone communities at risk to the annual loss of life and property. In response to the recent damaging floods in Southern Africa, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) agreed in 2009 to a joint initiative to develop a strategy for a basin-wide flood forecasting and early warning system for the Zambezi River Basin. In collaboration with the Interim Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Secretariat (IZS), three USAID-WMO Teams concurrently visited the eight riparian countries in August 2011 to (a) brief riparian staff and (b) discuss the current and potential capacity, and willingness of each country to participate in the development of the Strategy. The teams prepared Consultative Reports on Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Tanzania, and Mozambique for review and comment by the national agencies after the conclusion of the National Consultative Visits. Based on the Reports and feedback received, the USAID and WMO prepared this draft Strategy, as a discussion document, for review by ZAMCOM, the Zambezi riparian countries, the International Cooperating Partners (ICPs) and other interested organizations. The intent of this stage of the review of the Strategy is to further refine the concepts presented and approach taken as required, prior to the formal presentation of the final draft Strategy to a meeting of ZAMCOM decision makers later in 2012. This Strategy incorporates background information on the National Consultative Visits, and the findings and recommendations of the three USAID-WMO Teams. The findings and recommendations are presented in the context of Basin-wide Flood Forecasting and Early Warning; National Organizational Issues; Basic Hydrometeorological Observational Infrastructure; Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System; Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings; Human and Technical Capacity; and Sustainability. The Strategy proposes the potential creation of a basin-wide organization (basin-wide flood forecasting and warning entity).This will require definition of relative responsibilities, the USAID and WMO provide in Annex 1 a first-draft division of potential responsibilities between (1) a basin-wide flood forecasting and warning entity and (2) national counterpart organizations, as a basis for consensus development of the proposal with the riparian countries. As indicated above, the next step is to submit this Strategy to ZAMCOM, the riparian countries, the ICPs and other interested parties for their review and comment. USAID-WMO will revise the Strategy based on comments received and will return the revised Strategy to ZAMCOM and the riparian countries in preparation for a basin-wide meeting and more in-depth discussions of the next steps in implementing the Strategy. The Strategy envisions a participatory process by which representatives of riparian countries and technical representatives of ICPs collaborate to define system development needs, at both national and basin-wide levels, as the basis for eventual preparation of investment-ready projects to implement the system.

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Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and

Early Warning System Strategy

Introduction The Zambezi River Basin is home to approximately 30 million2 people that reside in eight countries in southern Africa. The Zambezi River is the fourth longest river in Africa draining over 1.32 million square kilometers, which is about the half of the size of Nile River basin. The Zambezi River drains parts of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Tanzania, and Mozambique before emptying into the Indian Ocean. Zambia contains the largest percentage of the Basin’s area, approximately 40.7 percent, whereas Namibia contains the smallest, approximately 1.2 percent. In declining percentages, Angola contains 18.2 percent, Zimbabwe, 16.0 percent, Mozambique, 11.4 percent, Malawi, 7.7 percent, Botswana, 2.8 percent, and Tanzania, 2.0 percent as shown in the Figure 1. There are two large reservoirs in the watershed, which are behind the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. The multi-purpose use of these reservoirs presents additional challenges to flood and water-resources management in the Basin. Releases from these reservoirs can aggravate flooding in downstream communities, especially when intense rainfalls or tropical cyclone events coincide with above-normal inflows to the reservoirs. Beneficially, seasonal flooding also

has served to replenish aquatic habitats, and restore soil moisture and nutrients that support wildlife and agriculture. However, above normal floods have been and continue to be a threat to lives and property of floodplain residents. These high-risk populations depend on the River for livelihoods, but are challenged by changes in the watershed-and-river system, such as urbanization and forest clearings, environmental degradation, increased population in the flood-prone areas, as well as climate change and variability. Zambezi River floods are recurring disasters.

Figure 1 Currently, there is no integrated flood warning system or protocol in the Basin. In response to the continuing loss of life and property to floods in Southern Africa, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) agreed in 2009 to collaborate on developing a strategy for a basin-wide flood forecasting and early 2 The World Bank, (2010) The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis. Volume 3, State of the Basin, June 2010

Figure 1 The Zambezi River Basin

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warning system for the Zambezi River Basin. Based on deliberations in Maputo, Mozambique in late 2009 3 , the USAID, and WMO in partnership with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) organized National Consultation visits to all eight Zambezi River Basin countries during August 2011 to (a) brief riparian staff on this initiative and (b) discuss the current and potential capacity and willingness of each country to participate. Three teams composed of USAID and WMO consultants, and national Focal Points concurrently visited the riparian countries; one Team visited Botswana, Angola, and Namibia, a second Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Tanzania, and a third Mozambique and Malawi. Before and after the National Consultation visits, the Teams met with the Interim Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Secretariat (IZS), in Gaborone, Botswana to liaise about the flood forecasting and early warning initiative.

After the completion of the visits, the USAID and WMO prepared a National Consultative Report for each riparian country that was reviewed by the country Focal Point and stakeholders during December 2011 through March 2012. Each report was based on information gained from (a) responses to questionnaires that WMO circulated and received from the riparian countries, (b) reports provided by riparian organizations, (c) Internet searches, (d) riparian country consultative workshops and (e) one-on-one visits with selected riparian stakeholders during each three to four day-consultative visit. After the Consultative Reports were reviewed they were revised and will soon be available on the web. This Strategy Discussion Document is based on the Teams’ findings, as documented in the National Consultative Reports, which are aggregated below, along with recommendations.

Findings The National Consultative Report findings are presented below under the following general headings.

Basin-wide Flood Forecasting and Early Warning; National Organizational Issues; Basic Hydrometeorological Observational Infrastructure; Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System; Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings; Human and Technical Capacity; and Sustainability.

Of course each Zambezi Basin country is unique and a 3-4 day visit to each does not provide the basis for detailed national findings or basin-wide collaboration. However, the visits did provide a basis for broad, basin-wide generalizations that can be a framework for follow-on cooperation to define and implement improvements. Basin-wide Flood Forecasting and Early Warning There is broad support for strengthening international cooperation for water-resources management in general, and basin-wide flood forecasting and warning in particular. This is 3 “Basin-wide Consultation Meeting on Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Strategy” 1-3 December 2009. 

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evidenced, in greater part, through the establishment of the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat. Hydrometeorological data sharing often is a difficult issue in many international river basins throughout the world. However, this seems to be less the case in at least parts of the Zambezi Basin where bilateral or trilateral data sharing among the hydrometeorological and disaster-management communities is already taking place. For example, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique have strengthened data sharing and personnel interaction in support of water-resources and dam management in the lower part of the Basin. Moreover, many recognized that a potential basin-wide flood forecasting and warning entity could be an instrument for human and technical capacity development, improved planning for the flood season, and a continuing forum for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in general. There also are needs for measuring equipment for data collection and exchange, and economic analysis of extreme events (floods and droughts). There also must be a commitment by member states to release funds for operation and maintenance of equipment National Organizational Issues In parallel with the lack of data sharing in many international shared river basins, collaborations of National Hydrologic and Meteorological Services (NHMS) within countries is typically weak in many places around the world. In general though, in the Zambezi Basin collaboration between these organizations and with national disaster–warning organizations is relatively high, but still can be enhanced. In many countries financial austerity measures have weakened many of the NMHSs, which have (a) lost staff to retirement, the private sector, lack of career development, and disease, (b) prevented adoption of improved technologies to gather and analyze data, and prepare forecasts, and (c) impeded delivery of warning information to disaster-management organizations—all of which is exacerbated by turnover by political leaders. Basic Hydrometeorological Observational Infrastructure Data collection networks in the Basin in general have been in decline in recent years, with hydrologic networks suffering more than meteorological networks. Moreover, most stations are manually operated with little real-time4 data being collected. Most WMO Hydrologic Cycle Observing System 5 (HYCOS) stations in many Zambezi Basin countries are inoperative, because of the lack of qualified staff and insufficient funds for travel, repair, periodic maintenance, and sensor replacement. Hydrometeorological networks are generally inadequate throughout the basin and networks are not very robust because of the limited number of gauges, such as real-time meteorological observation stations, rain gages, and stream gages. Also many stations lack automation, so data cannot be quickly collected and relayed to where they are needed. Increasingly, in some countries rating tables for water-level river gauges are out of date because discharge measurements are not being made. In many instances, it is the lack of a strong community (public and private) demand for access to this hydrological information that results in it falling into disrepair and value. A fully operational flood forecasting and warning system meeting the demands of all sectoral stakeholders places requirements on operations and maintenance of the basic supporting infrastructure. 4 In the context of hydrology, real-time data are those that are collected and communicated to central data centers every few hours. For a large relatively slow responding river like the Zambezi data real-time could be as infrequently as every 12 or 24 hours, initially. 

5 HYCOS is a program guided by the WMO, see http://sadchycos.dwaf.gov.za/default.aspx 

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Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System Although there are hydrologic models in use in the Basin—such as Mike 11, Pitman model, HEC3, HEC5, HECRAS – Namibia, HYData, HYDSTRA, IQQM Integrated quantity quality models and others—there is no standard or unified approach to hydrologic modeling. Many of the NHMSs lack the basic hydrologic modeling and forecasting tools and staff for forecasting flood events or managing their domestic rivers. In contrast, International flood forecasting and early warning systems have become more integrated and interactive in many parts of the world, while the data collection and communications aspects of the systems have become highly automated. No single hydrologic or hydraulic or hydrologic model can provide river and flood forecasts throughout a river basin with the varied characteristics of the Zambezi River. Rather, hydrologists create, calibrate, and maintain libraries of linked simulation models and use the most appropriate model for each sub basin or river segment to be forecasted. These sub-basin forecasts then are linked by a forecast system structure so as to provide hydrologic forecasts at numerous river gages and communities throughout the entire Basin. These tools require (a) historical data for calibration, (b) Geographical Information System parameters, (c) real-time rainfall and hydrologic data, and (d) highly trained and experienced operators and forecasters to prepare river-and-flood forecasts. There are large voids in the domestic systems and in some cases, disaster-management organizations prepare flood warnings on the basis of forecasted intense rains, completely bypassing the possible capability of rivers to respond to the anticipated high runoff.  Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings Many disaster-management organizations have collegial relationships with their NMHS counterparts, but do not receive adequate meteorological or hydrological forecasts that are needed to provide the basis for warning preparation. In general, the disaster-management organizations cannot afford dedicated communications networks to disseminate community specific warnings to communities most at risk, and must rely on public radio and television to disseminate warnings to the broad public at large. Human and Technical Capacity Austerity measures in many countries have reduced the ranks of NHMS and disaster-management organizations as older hydrologists and technicians retire, and positions remain vacant. Moreover, the brain drain of younger staff to the private sector has added to the constraint on human capacity development. Nevertheless, in many countries there still remains enthusiasm for capacity development, both human and technical. Sustainability In many countries, current organizations, staff, technologies, and networks are in decline and sustainability obviously is in the critical path to success. As this Strategy goes forward, national ministries of finance must be engaged in the process. As noted above, the system once in place will attract grass-roots support from all stakeholder groups who will be well placed and eager to demand the sustainability of the system.

Discussion Points

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Based on the findings above, the USAID and WMO provide the following discussion points for collaboration by ZAMCOM and the Zambezi countries. These collaborations must link and draw from existing agreed-to strategies and agreements, including ZAMCOM IWRM strategies, objectives, and operations. Moreover they should build on the local practices and lessons learnt from other basin initiatives and address information needs for all users, especially those at risk to floods. They also should encourage participation of, and feedback from, the communities involved in determining the system requirements, design and development, and must demonstrate due regard to cultural and environmental issues, where they are relevant. In the process they must address ensuring interoperability and accommodating agreed-upon standards for technical systems, and data and information interchange. The collaborative process, of course, must be transparent to the ICPs so as to maximize the convergence of the interests of both communities. Basin-wide Flood Forecasting and Early Warning The Zambezi countries should collaborate on defining the requirements for a basin-wide forecast and warning organization, to include a consensus definition of the responsibilities, staffing, budget, technologies, and other attributes of the organization. To the greatest extent practical, the basin-wide entity shall be compatible with nationally based forecast and warning systems, giving due consideration to sharing distributed data bases and information systems at all levels. It is important to highlight the role played by the Zambezi Water Information System (ZAMWIS) as platform for information sharing National Organizational Issues Zambezi riparian countries must strengthen their NHMS and disaster-warning organizations. . The way to address this challenge is to create awareness, with “marketing” and image building, demonstrating the economic value of meteorological and hydrological information. This has to be done at the highest political level and with Finance Ministry included. In some countries, there is no legal mandate for the hydrological or meteorological services to warn the population of impending floods. Communications across and between these agencies need to be improved. Even if a robust basin-wide forecasting and warning system becomes operation there will always be a need for domestic-river forecasting for both flood-warning and meeting IWRM objectives. National flood and river forecasting needs should be met with compatibility in mind, both with other national systems and the basin-wide system. Basic Hydrometeorological Observational Infrastructure Each riparian country should be supported, where required, to review the capacity of its current hydrometeorological data-collection networks with stakeholders, so as to identify priorities of data collection and unmet stakeholder needs. The review should consider the value and cost of real time data, not only to preserve life but also to provide economic IWRM benefits. Stakeholders should be encouraged to quantify the economic benefits they can provide as a result of strengthened data-collection and communication networks. Unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System A unified Hydrologic Modeling Forecasting System should be the overall framework within which both basin-wide and domestic systems are conceptualized and developed. There is a wide degree of latitude within which this can be done, depending upon the degree to which the basin-

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wide organization and national forecast centers share flood forecasting and warning responsibilities, as well as staff. Service Delivery and Dissemination of Warnings

The process of communicating flood forecast information to the various users in all of the countries visited uncovered unmet technology, staff, and financial needs that need to be addressed. The adopted flood forecasting and early warning system will only be as strong as its weakest link and reaching and empowering the community at risk should be the ultimate aim of the system and must be achieved. There also are needs for (a) improving the coordination mechanisms of National Disaster Management Forums and () Memoranda of Understanding by member states for the rescue of population living in border areas

Human and Technical Capacity Human and technical capacity must be a continuing priority for the riparian countries. Though many organizations have lost some of their most skilled staff to retirement and the private sector, enthusiasm and motivation of current staff are high to undertake capacity development and benefit from technology transfer. Capacity building can be achieved through a range of mechanisms, from improved education systems, improved hydrologic university curricula, and targeted training courses of practitioners, including distance learning, exchange of lessons learned, and on the job training. Sustainability This Strategy encourages participants to consider sustainability of systems that are developed in response to national and basin-wide needs they define. There are inherent conflicting needs for (a) data-collection, forecasting, and warning against (b) inadequate financial and human resources that will be available in the future, requiring continuing engagement of national ministries of finance in the process of Strategy development. Technical, human, and financial constraints must be considered by system developers when conceptualizing systems to meet national and basin-wide needs. Organizational Responsibilities The creation of any organization that will have basin-wide responsibilities must be accompanied by agreement among the Zambezi community about the division of responsibilities among the organizations. As a starting point, USAID and WMO provide in Annex 1 a first-draft of the division of responsibilities between (1) national counterpart organizations and (2) a basin-wide flood forecasting and warning entity. It is intended as a basis for further discussion within the ZAMCOM Community.

Performance Indicators Performance Indicators provide objective measures of the return of social and economic benefits that result from meeting stakeholder needs. Participants may seek to consider adopting processes to assure that stakeholder needs and performance requirements are met and documented in an ongoing manner. The benefits of saving lives and reducing property

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damage due to floods, combined with IWRM benefits can accrue economic and social benefits that exceed long-term capital and operational costs of implementing the system, as has been demonstrated in many parts of the world. Next Steps Several steps of Strategy implementation are envisioned, consisting of review, possible amendments to, and provisional acceptance of the Strategy itself. Formal acceptance will take place after final review at a meeting of ZAMCOM decision makers, later in 2012. The implementation process documented herein is briefly stated in order for this document to be brief and high level. Upon acceptance, more details will be included for review and approval through a consensus building process by ZAMCOM and the within riparian countries. It is anticipated that the final draft Strategy will include strategies to address the subject topics as listed above. The Strategy will be the basis for a design and implementation plan, which will also address topics such as the institutional framework for implementation, monitoring and evaluation, capacity development. Strategy Acceptance In draft form the Strategy will be forwarded to all Zambezi River Basin riparian countries, the Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat, and selected ICPs for comment during a review period. At the end of the review window, USAID and WMO will integrate comments from respondents into an initial consensus Strategy. It will be returned to the riparian countries and ZAMCOM in anticipation of their participation in a basin-wide Strategy meeting. The basin-wide meeting will attempt to finalize consensus on the Strategy and initiate planning of investment-ready6 projects in anticipation of formal Strategy acceptance at a subsequent ZAMCOM decision makers’ meetings. The basin-wide meeting will provide preliminary guidelines for format and content of projects, and draft schedule for project preparation. At the heart of the Strategy is a participatory process in which riparian representatives—assisted by representatives from ICPs - will collaborate on defining riparian and basin-wide needs for flood forecasting and warning, optionally to include broad IWRM needs as well. Investment-Ready Project Proposals Project Proposals Strategy implementation teams will prepare draft needs requirements and project proposals, at the riparian and basin-wide levels7 . At the riparian level the needs mainly will focus on upgrading technical and human capacities of (a) hydrologic organizations, (b) meteorological organizations, and (c) disaster management organizations in each country so that they are positioned to be contributing and beneficial partners with the basin-wide organization. 6 An investment-ready project or proposal is one that has (a) meets a defined set of needs, (b) has sufficient detail and probabilities of success and sustainability, and (c) is consistent with an ICPs investment guidelines to be considered for funding. 7 An initiative of this organizational complexity—multiple proposals from each of eight countries and the basin-wide entity—will require a continuously staffed Program Management Unit (PMU) to refine planning and coordination of the overall initiative. 

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A team of riparian representatives and international experts will convene to define the organization, staffing, and capital investment and operational budgets for the basin-wide organization. At that level, the project proposals will focus on the process of (a) documenting performance needs of the basin-wide entity and (b) implementation planning. Because riparian projects generally will build upon existing organizational, technical, and human infrastructure it is likely that implementation of riparian proposals will proceed more readily than basin-wide proposals. Project-Proposal Reviews This activity will go forward at its own pace, depending upon the submission of project proposal needs requirements. A team of representatives of the Strategy process and ICPs will review project prior to submission to the Zambezi Technical Committee (ZAMTEC), which acts under the policy guidance of the ZAMCOM Ministerial Council. Projects implementation Implementation will go forward as projects are approved. Project proposals will be prepared collaboratively to define the needs for national and basin-wide forecasting and warning systems. This will be an initiative of organizational complexity because of the prospect of multiple proposals concerning each of eight countries and the need for a basin-wide entity is selected—and will require a continuously staffed Project Management Unit (PMU) to refine planning and coordination of the overall initiative, if strategic goals are to be achieved. A preferred approach is to establish a river basin program that is Administered by ZAMCOM, is staged (done in steps—such as clusters of countries versus trying to do all countries concurrently) and that provides a single contract for technical and capacity development support to develop and implement an integrated system for the entire Zambezi Basin. Summary The USAID and WMO have worked together on the preparation of a Zambezi River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System Strategy and though collaborative efforts with ZAMCOM and eight Zambezi Basin countries. This resulting Strategy discussion document provides a path to conceptualize and implement future organizational capacities on national and basin-wide levels, as well as their interactions and products. The path includes a highly participatory process in which riparian representatives and strategy implementation representatives collaborate on defining the needs for investment-ready project proposals, which will be reviewed by ICPs and approved by the ZAMTEC and the Council of Ministers, prior to formal submission of the proposal to the ICPs. Acronyms HYCOS Hydrologic Cycle Observing System IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management ICP International Cooperating Partners IZS Interim ZAMCOM Secretariat NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services PMU Program Management Unit USAID US Agency for International Development

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WMO World Meteorological Organization ZAMCOM Zambezi Watercourse Commission ZAMTEC Zambezi Technical Committee

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Annex 1

Basin-wide Flood Forecasting and Warning Entity Draft National and Basin-wide Responsibilities

National Table A1.1 – Riparian flood forecasting, warning, and associated responsibilities

Topic Discussion

Hydrometeorological data collection

National hydrometeorological data-collection networks are the responsibility of riparian countries, which will share selected historical and real-time data sets with the basin-wide entity to support basin-wide forecasting

Riparian river forecasting

Forecasting of national rivers is a riparian responsibility, though riparian countries and the basin-wide forecasting entity are encouraged to harmonize their processes and share results

Flood-disaster management

National flood-disaster management is the responsibility of each riparian country.

Health and Disease

Mitigation of diseases in humans and animals is a riparian responsibility; effective national and basin-wide hydrologic monitoring, forecasting, and warning can assist management of diseases that flourish during floods and droughts.

Water-control structures

Operation of dams and other water-control structures is a riparian responsibility, or a shared responsibility under the provisions of existing and future treaty obligations among the riparian countries

Operating rules

Water-control structure operating rules are a riparian responsibility, or a shared responsibility under the provision of existing and future treaty obligations among the riparian countries. To facilitate basin-wide river forecasting, control-structure operators shall share structure operating rules and current-release information with the basin-wide forecast entity.

Decision support

Water-control structure decision support systems are a riparian responsibility, or a shared responsibility under the provision of existing and future treaty obligations among the riparian states

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Basin-wide

Table A1.2 Basin-wide flood forecasting, warning, and associated responsibilities

Topic Discussion

Basin-wide flood forecasting

Basin-wide river forecasting at selected sites on the Zambezi River is the responsibility of the basin-wide entity and—if agreed to by the riparian countries—forecasts may be made available on the basin-wide entity’s Internet website and other media outlets.

Basin-wide flood warning

Basin-wide flood warning shall be provided by the basin-wide entity promptly to only riparian-state water and disaster management organizations for their consideration and action

Hydrometeorological and disaster management human capacity development

Under the guidance of the riparian countries, the basin-wide forecast entity shall facilitate human capacity development support to riparian countries on the topics of: • Hydrometeorological data collection standards,

harmonization, processing, modeling, and analysis • Dam-break analysis • Flood-disaster management • Flood-plain mapping and analysis • Other appropriate topics

Hydrometeorological technology transfer

Under the guidance of the riparian countries, the basin-wide entity shall facilitate technology transfer of appropriate flood-related forecasting and warning technologies to riparian-state staff.

Annual Flood Meeting

The basin-wide entity shall plan, conduct, and document an annual thematic flood meeting to: • Review riparian and basin-wide forecasting, warning, and

management of past floods • Review preparation for the coming annual flood • Invite participation from riparian countries and—in support

of technology transfer—invite other riparian and international organizations to participate in the meeting

• Provide donor insight into opportunities to promote flood-disaster mitigation

Flood-dispute mediation

In the event of a dispute among the riparian countries concerning a perceived flood-related problem and—at the written request of all affected countries--the basin-wide entity shall seek impartial technical analysis of the flood-related problem from experts outside the Zambezi River Basin