slovak emission projections process
DESCRIPTION
Slovak emission projections process. Stanislava Morová Slovak hydrometeorological institute, Bratislava, regional centre Banská Bystrica. Topics. General about Slovak projections for energy sector Input data Splitting input data Projections after 2030 Uncertainties after 2030 Summary. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Slovak emission projections process
Stanislava MorováSlovak hydrometeorological institute, Bratislava, regional centre Banská
Bystrica
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Topics
General about Slovak projections for energy sector
Input data
Splitting input data
Projections after 2030
Uncertainties after 2030
Summary
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General about Slovak projections for energy sector
Emission projections are preparing for all three scenarios (WOM, WM and WAM) and for all relevant sectors,
Projections for energy sector are preparing by model MESSAGE except NFR 1A4b (Residential) and NFR 1A3 (Transport),
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Input data
Inventory: Dbase National Emission Information System (NEIS):
energy (NFR1 except 1A3) and industry sector (NFR2),
SHMÚ: transport (NFR 1A3), emissions NM VOC and PM10 and PM2.5,
National experts: for other sectors like agriculture, waste, etc.
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Splitting input data
First step: splitting on ETS sources and non-ETS sources
Second step: classification of ETS sources Third step: classification of non-ETS sources Fourth step: aggregation of fuels Fifth step: calculation aggregated emission factors Sixth step: Share of fuels for energy and technology Seventh step: splitting heat values for each emission
for each NFR category in model MESSAGE format
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First step: splitting on ETS sources and non-ETS sources
ETS sources: these sources are in National allocation plan and via internet (www.co2.dexia.sk). Each operator included in ETS has to prepare every year report on CO2 emissions to Ministry of Environment SR
Non-ETS sources: All sources from dbase NEIS minus ETS sources
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Second step: classification of ETS sources
Sources included in ETS are divided on: some concrete operators,
NFR 1A1a heat plants,
NFR 1A1a only used NG,
other ETS sources.
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Third step: classification of non-ETS sources
Sources included in non-ETS are divided on: NFR 1A1a used only NG, NFR 1A1a other, other NFR codes which are divided on NACE code:
Agriculture – 01, 02, Mining and quarrying – 05, 07, 08 and 09, Food – 10, 11 and 12, Textile – 13, 14 and 15, Wood - 16, Pulp and paper – 17, 18 and 58, Chemistry – 19, 20, 21 and 22, Inorganic chemistry - 23, Manufacture of metal - 24, Construction – 25, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 35, Industry – 31 and 32, Other – other NACE codes.
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Fourth step: aggregation of fuels
Dbase NEIS include 69 types of fuels, 69 types of fuels are aggregated to 21 types of fuels,
For example:
(1) Hard coal = anthracite + hard coal CZ + hard coal PL + patent fuel like eco-fuel
(2) Heavy fuel oil = heavy fuel oil low sulphur + heavy fuel oil middle sulphur + heavy fuel oil high sulphur
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Fifth step: calculation aggregated emission factors
Total emissions = energy emissions + technology emissions
Calculation of energy and technology heat (Q)
Qener,tech = sum of fuelsener,tech/3.6/8.76 Calculation of aggregated emission factor (energy,
technology)
EFagr = EM (t)/Qener,tech
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Sixth step: Share of fuels for energy and technology
Calculation of maximum amount of aggregated fuels for energy and technology,
The same calculation for energy and technology: For example table for calculation of fuel share:
After fuel share calculation, the data are taken to MESSAGE format
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ESeventh step: splitting heat values for each emission for each NFR category in model MESSAGE format
Table for each emissions for each NFR category
From this table are data taken to MESSAGE format
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Projections after 2030 (1)
NOx projections in Gg
SO2 projections in Gg
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Projections after 2030 (2)
NM VOC projections in Gg
NH3 projections in Gg PM2.5 projections in Gg
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Uncertainties after 2030
Uncertainties are in the beginning, and we have only one national expert for uncertainties
In the present time we prepare uncertainties only for GHG emissions
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Summary
SHMÚ prepare emission projections by bottom-up methodology,
For energy and industry sector it is used model MESSAGE,
It is very difficult to splitting data for model MESSAGE format,
All data are preparing in MS Excel and than they are transported to the model MESSAGE,
After preparing data we take policies and measures and run modeling for scenarios WOM, WM and WAM,
Results from model MESSAGE are again transported to MS Excel for preparing standard formats in NFR codes.
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Thank you for your attention.