Emission Projections

National RPO MeetingSt. Louis, MO

November 6, 2003

Presented by:Gregory Stella

VISTAS Technical Advisor – Emission Inventories

VISTAS - Regional Haze Timeline

2004 2005 2006 200820072002 20031999 2000 2001

Regional Haze Rule

PM2.5

Designation Feb/Dec 2004

PM2.5 &Haze SIPsDec 2007

Air Quality Monitoring

Emissions Inventory

Atmospheric Modeling

VISTAS Planning

States Develop Haze SIPs

Strategy Design

Policy Interpretation

Baseline and natural conditions

BART Sources

Reasonable Progress Goals

Base year and future year strategies

Base year and future year air quality

Aug 2003:Emissions InventoryBase 2002

Dec 2003:RevisedEm InvBase 2002

Dec 2003:Modeling Protocol

Mar 2004:DraftEm Inv 2018

July 2004:Revised State Em InvBase 2002

Sept 2004:Annual Base YearModel Runs

Dec 2004:Annual Run 2018

Apr 2004:DDM in CMAQ

Oct 2004:SensitivityRuns 20183 episodes

Nov 2003:Met, Em, AQmodel testing3 episodes

Sept 2004:Revised Em Inv2018

Oct-Dec 2004:Control Strategy Inventories

Jan 2005:Sensitivity Runs 2018 episodes

Jan-Jun 2005:Control Strategy Runs 2018

Mar 2004:CART:selectsensitivityepisodes

July-Dec 2005:ObservationsConclusionsRecommendations

After Jun 2005Model Runs: e.g. Power Plant Turnover

Before Jun 2005Other Inventory: e.g. Power Plant Turnover

VISTAS Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Deliverables

State Regulatory Activities

Jan-Mar 2004Define BART sources

Optional Optional

June 2004Identify BART controls

Draft 08/18/03

VISTAS Plan:Emission Inventories

Objective: Provide inventories for modeling speciated PM-2.5 and regional haze State and local agencies review, revise

2002 base year inventory Draft delivered August 2003 Revised delivered December 2003

Based on data States will submit to CERR 2018 inventory (RFP closed October 31)

Draft due Mar 2004 Revised due September 2004

Other RPO Inventory Plans

Base Year Inventory (2002) Most looking at fall 2004 (after CERR submittal)

Future Year Base Case Inventory Unplanned to date

EPA’s New“Modeling Platform”

EI, Models, and Analyses Base Year Emissions (2001) Future Year Emissions

2015 and 2020 now, but no 2018 scheduled To be available by PMTR final analysis

Eventual coordination with Section 812 Study Under review by SAB Latest state-of-knowledge for growth & control

http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/blueprint.html

Emission Projection Coordination Needs

Common Inventories 2002 NEI Submittal RPO Data Exchange Format Canada & Mexico

Common Future Year(s) 2010 (2009 ?) & 2018

Common Base Case Controls Clear Skies, Nonroad Diesel, BART, etc.

Common Growth Methods EGAS, IPM, NONROAD, VMT, etc.

Key Issues to Resolve

Methods for projection Model or ad hoc calculation

Available growth & control information Federal, Regional, or Local Regulation Growth Rates

EGAS 4.0 (+), New VMT methods Model specific input data

IPM, MOBILE6, NONROAD, CMU-NH3 Source specific data

Enforcement action & consent decrees Retirements & planned units

Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case”)

Use as much existing information as possible Start with latest available projection

documentation and control assumptionsEPA’s Nonroad Diesel / HDD / Clear Skies or

Preview of PM Transport Rule (PMTR)Use growth & control programs as starting pointMake VISTAS-specific where local input available

EGU, Non-EGU Point, Highway, Nonroad, NH3

Coordinate with other RPOs

Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case” – 2)

Use stakeholder review for preliminary “Base Case” laugh test issues Are we *WAY* off on any factors?

Example: Furniture Manufacturing in NC

Enables cursory review of assumptions and tees up data for more extensive final “Base Case” development

Proposed Plan (Preliminary “Base Case” – 3)

What about BART? Identify sources by January 2004

Opportunity to include rough estimate of sources and controls in preliminary “Base Case”

Define BART controls by June 2004Fine tune for final “Base Case”Stakeholder participation in further identification of

sources and controls

Proposed Plan (Final “Base Case”)

Build on preliminary “Base Case” Utilize “interest groups” by source sector Groups to review, assess, and modify

Methods, models, and factors for projection

No impact on preliminary “Base Case” generation or planned sensitivity runs

VISTAS Next Steps

Award Projections RFP Initiate work in November

Define Issues for “Special Interest” Teams EGU Non-EGU Point Agriculture Fires Mobile (On and Off-Road) Stationary Area

Special Interest Issues EGU Sources

method for projection (IPM, Haiku, Facility provided, other?) growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs / emission rates

base and future year BART identification

shared generation demands planned units / capacity / retirements utilization rates “typical” operation for base & projection year usage of CEM stack parameters

making sure correct variable stack parameters (hourly differences) changes in stack parameters due to scrubber application

Special Interest Issues (2)

Non-EGU Point Sources growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs

base and future year BART identification

stack parameters making sure correct

planned units / retirements

Special Interest Issues (3)

Agriculture improved NH3 estimates from animal / crop

operations growth rates / moratoriums temporal schedule for VISTAS states CAFOs

Special Interest Issues (4)

Fires temporal and spatial distribution in base year “typical” fire inventory for use in base and

projection year changes in fuel loadings / forest types

Special Interest Issues (5)

Mobile Sources (On and Offroad) VMT or engine growth control programs

I/M, LEV, RFP, fuel characteristics Vehicle/fleet mix

Hybrid introduction Speed data Temperature application (same in base as is future) 3-D aircraft emissions nonroad distribution issues (e.g., CMV in WV) shipping lane information

Special Interest Issues (6)

Stationary Area growth rates / energy efficiency assumed control programs

base and future year PM transport factor application paved / unpaved road estimate improvements urban sprawl

Canadian Emission Projections

Based on 1995 CAC version 2 Collaboration of EC and provinces & territories Still maintains point source confidentiality

2010 / 2020 Projections: Transport Modeling Province / source sector growth rates

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) report “Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update, December 1999”.

National CAC forecast is the sum of the provincial and territorial forecasts

Equivalent to a “Control Case” or “Clear Skies Case” (i.e., not yet on the books)

Canadian Emission Projections (2)

“Base Case” was backed out Incorporates all the emissions reduction

measures that are already in place Tier 1 and NLEV vehicles Tier 2 and heavy duty vehicle NMHC, NOx, PM

standards Low sulfur on-road diesel and gasoline

Inputs from provincial and territorial governments and private industry have been incorporated into the forecast

Canadian Emission Projections (3)

“Control Case” includes: Canadian Standards for PM and Ozone

Reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx Canadian Acid Rain strategy

In both Base and Control, NH3 held constant in all years

Mexican Emission Projections

No known inventories of projected Mexican data

Most likely will hold constant in future years

Proposed Plan (To Work)

Stakeholder participation a must! Nothing is better than local specific data VISTAS working with our sources to best define

activity and emissions in our area

Utilize other data (RPO/EPA/FLM) as available to aide in coordinated decisions Where can we coordinate IMMEDIATELY or

preface our plans to allow coordinated effort?