sioux falls housing market

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  • 1. Sioux Falls Housing Market: The Big Picture and The Little Details Jeff Allen Director of Research Services [email_address]
  • 2. Today
    • Recent History of Sioux Falls Real Estate
    • Group Discussion: Consumer Challenges and Misconceptions
    • Break
  • 3. Today II
    • 4. Show, Dont Tell: Using Market Statistics Intelligently with Clients
    • 5. Group Discussion: The Uncooperative Seller Scenario
    • 6. The Future of Sioux Falls Real Estate
  • 4. Introduction: Supply and Demand
    • The guiding law of how markets operate.
    • The balance of supply and demand affects everything.
  • 5. Sellers Market
    • Low supply, high demand
    • Seller advantage
    • Growing prices
    • Quick sales
  • 6. Buyers Market
    • High supply, low demand
    • Buyer advantage
    • Flat or declining prices
    • Longer market time
  • 7. Balanced Market
    • Neither side has a market-wide advantage
    • Price growth and market times in line with historical norms
  • 8. Recent History: Gradually Shifting to Buyers Market
  • 9. Gradually Shifting to Buyers Market
  • 10. Gradually Shifting to Buyers Market
  • 11. Gradually Shifting to Buyers Market
  • 12. Prices Softening
  • 13. Tougher Conditions for Sellers
  • 14. Tougher Conditions for Sellers
  • 15. Recent Surge in Home Sales
  • 16. Small Group Discussion
    • What are the biggest challenges or misconceptions you face with todays buyers?
    • What are the biggest challenges or misconceptions you face with todays sellers?
  • 17. Show, Dont Tell Using market statistics intelligently with clients
  • 18. Show, Dont Tell
    • Statistics arent numbers, theyre stories.
    • Dont be scared.
  • 19. Show, Dont Tell
    • Statistics are more important now than ever.
    • Unique market conditions
    • Consumers have far more information
  • 20. Show, Dont Tell
    • Provide knowledge at the expense of salesmanship.
    • Its not always a good time to buy or sell. Tell a consumer that and you have their loyalty for life.
  • 21. Show, Dont Tell
    • Use proof to back up your claims.
    • RASE market reports give independent third-party verification.
  • 22. Show, Dont Tell: RASE Market Reports
  • 23. Small Group Discussion Youre making a listing presentation to a seller. They believe their house is worth far more than you do. How would you make your case? Use statistics from the Monthly Indicators Report, but what else would you say?
  • 24. The Future of Sioux Falls Real Estate
    • Beyond 2009, the crystal ball is hard to read.
    • Sales are up, but some of the incentives driving the recent surge are temporary:
    • Historically low mortgage rates
    • $8,000 Tax Credit for 1 st Time Buyers
  • 25. First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit
  • 26. First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Q: What will happen when the tax credit expires? + 52.6% 119 78 First-Time Buyers - 29.9% 171 August 2009 244 August 2008 All Other Buyers
  • 27. First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit
  • 28. Areas With Heavy First-Time Buyer Sales
  • 29. Extension/Expansion of Tax Credit
    • The sequel wont be as effective as the original
    • Sell-forward effect
  • 30. Inefficient Use of Government Funds?
    • From Help May Bring Another Bubble Las Vegas Sun, 9.22.09
    • We paid $8,000 to at least 1.5 million people to do something they were going to do anyway, Jakabovics says. ... The tax break, due to expire at the end of November, is on track to cost $15 billion, twice what Congress had planned. In other words, it will cost $43,000 for every new homebuyer who would not have bought a house without the tax break.
  • 31. Positive News: Improved Housing Affordability
  • 32. Positive News: Relatively Few Foreclosures *Source: RealtyTrac 234 Michigan 5 150 Arizona 4 144 California 3 140 Florida 2 62 Nevada 1 Housing Units Per Foreclosure
  • 33. Positive News: Relatively Few Foreclosures *Source: RealtyTrac 234 Michigan 5 3,027 South Dakota 44 150 Arizona 4 144 California 3 140 Florida 2 62 Nevada 1 Housing Units Per Foreclosure
  • 34. Takeaway: the foreclosure crisis hasnt and wont hit Sioux Falls as hard as the rest of the country. But more are coming down the pipeline. Positive News: Relatively Few Foreclosures
  • 35. Positive News: Relatively Healthy Job Outlook Trivia Question: What two states are the Top 5 healthiest regions for employment located in?
  • 36. Positive News: Relatively Healthy Job Outlook 4.6 Grand Forks, ND 5 4.5 Sioux Falls, SD 4 4.2 Rapid City, SD 3 4.2 Fargo, ND 2 3.1 Bismark, ND 1 Current Unemployment Rate
  • 37. Positive News: Relatively Healthy Job Outlook
  • 38. Positive News: Relatively Healthy Job Outlook
  • 39. Positive News: Relatively Healthy Population Growth
  • 40. Positive News: Relatively Healthy Job Outlook & Population Growth Takeaway: Sioux Falls is weathering the recession better than most regions in the country and is growing. This bodes well for housing demand.
  • 41. Sioux Falls Outlook Summary Sales are likely to dip down again in 2010 Buyers market into foreseeable future, especially in higher price ranges Pending sales up for 3 consecutive months Housing affordability up dramatically Relatively few foreclosures Healthy Job Outlook and Population Growth In sum: optimistic long-term outlook.
  • 42. Sioux Falls Outlook Summary The only constant is change. Stay on top of Sioux Falls housing market trends using RASE market tools: www.rase-inc.org
  • 43. Sioux Falls Housing Market: The Big Picture and The Little Details Jeff Allen Director of Research Services [email_address]

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