Allard de Wit, Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Netherlands

Taru Palosuo & Reimund Rötter, LUKE, Finland

Anne Kari Bergjord, BioForsk, Norway

Oleg Virchenko & Alexander Kleschenko, AMI, Obninsk, Russia

Simulating the impact of winter conditions

on the survival and yield potential of

winter wheat

Lost crop area due to adverse winter

conditions in Russia

2

Source: USDA-PECAD

3

Source: Russian

Space Institute

(IKI)

What is the frost tolerance of winter-wheat?

4

-17.2 (± 1.2) ºC Porter and Gawith, 1999

Frost tolerance in Russian wheat cultivars

5

Region, Variety Survival % at -18.5

Mironovka,Ukraina

Mironovskaja 808 65%

Mironovskaja jub. 35%

Odessa

Odesskaja 16 75%

Odesskaja 51 41%

Don

Severodonskaja 54%

Tarasovskaja 29 56%

Donskaja ost. 44%

Urodgainaja 42%

Krasnodar

Bezostaja 1 27%

Krasnodarskaja 39 70%

Severokubanka 53%

Soratnitsa 50%

Krasnodarskaja 46 32%

Zamena 31%

Spartanka 40%

Yuna 36%

Yugtina 30%

Siberia and Volga region

Uljanovka 86%

Albidum 114 98%

Kinelskaja 4 87%

Albidum 12 92%

Source:

Fedoulov, 1998. Euphytica

100: 101–108, 1998

The FROSTOL model

6

Tem

pera

ture

[C

]

LT50C

Source: Bergjord et al. Europ. J. Agronomy 28 (2008) 321–330

Kill function based on LT50

7 Source: Vico et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 197

(2014) 65–75

8

Connecting FROSTOL to WOFOST

Winter survival: Other processes involved

9

Source: N.N. Sãulescu and H.-J. Braun. Chapter 9: Cold Tolerance. Reynolds, M.P.,

J.I. Ortiz-Monasterio, and A. McNab (eds.). 2001. Application of Physiology in Wheat

Breeding. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT.

Field experimental data Jokioinen (FI)

10

Simulated frost damage Jokioinen (FI)

11

Simulated yield reduction Jokioinen (FI)

12

Tula, Russia: Comparison with observed

winterkill events

13

Year Reported winterkill

events at stations

simulated winterkill

events for all fields

2006 1 N/A

2007 1 33

2008 5 168

2009 0 89

2010 9 574

2011 0 0

2012 2 0

Winter kill modelling vs. field observations on meteo stations

14

Station Year Killed area %

Bohlkov 2010 20

Mtensk 2010 3

Suvirov 2010 15

Volovo 2010 99

Uzlovaja 2010 70

Take home message

Frost tolerance in wheat is dynamic in time and space and probabilistic in nature.

Frost tolerance and plant survival percentage can be simulated well given laboratory experimental data.

Field experimental data shows a mixed result:

● Finnish experiments are poorly reproduced

● Observations from Russian agromet stations are better reproduced (albeit more qualitatively)

Other factors determining winter survival probably play an important role.

Open implementation: http://github.com/ajwdewit/pcse

15

Questions?

16