severe weather and the impact on utility · your outages to weather thresholds, you have two...
TRANSCRIPT
Utilizing High Density Weather Utilizing High Density Weather Observations to Improve PreparationObservations to Improve Preparation, ,
Recovery, and Outage ForecastsRecovery, and Outage Forecasts
John BosseMeteorologist, and DirectorWeatherBug® Professional October 22, 2008
Severe Weather and the Impact on Utility Severe Weather and the Impact on Utility OperationsOperations
• What is a Meso Network?
• How would you employ a Meso Network?
• Applications
• Studies Underway
Today’s Agenda
• Weather is highly localized. To truly capture this variability,you need to measure it locally.
• The National Weather Service (NWS) measures weather at 1400+ points across U.S. Measurements are provided once an hour. Points located primarily at Airports.
• NWS sites are often too far away to capture the information needed. The update frequency often misses an event.
• If you can place weather stations where you need data, collect that data often, you can improve decision making.
Meso Network Concept
Best Known in the Met Community
The Oklahoma Mesonet
Other Common Meso Networks
NC AgNet
USBR AgriMet
Union Pacific Railroad
A Public Private/Partnership
• 17 Urban Centers across the US including New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Seattle/Tacoma
• 100 stations per city maintained to a high standard
• Data used in NWS operations at forecast offices and in modeling efforts
UrbaNet
WeatherBug/NOAA/NWS Partnership to provide Urban Scale Mesonets
If you agree that more localized data can improve your ability to gauge storm severity, deploy crews more efficiently, and correlate your outages to weather thresholds, you have two options:
Meso Network Concept
• Build It – Secure a number of weather sensors, site, install, maintain, centrally collect the data, and create tools to view and analyze the data.
• Buy It – Find a Company that operates a localized weather network, and provides access to it’s data.
Meso Network Concept
If you agree that more localized data can improve your ability to gauge storm severity, deploy crews more efficiently, and correlate your outages to weather thresholds, you have two options:
• Build It – Secure a number of weather sensors, site, install, maintain, centrally collect the data, and create tools to view and analyze the data.
• Buy It – Find a Company that operates a localized weather network, and provides access to it’s data.
Today’s focus – Use what’s there, and expand it if necessary
KEY
WeatherBug
NWS
Confidential
Dense Coverage…
…Where people Live, Work, and Consume Energy
The WeatherBug® Network
The WeatherBug® Network
• Commercial grade instrumentation
• Records 27 live measurements
• Highly reliable and accurate
• Roof or ground mounted
• Streaming live data to data centers or end users
• Includes digital display
• Can be combined with cameras for security and weather surveillance
Weather Sensors
• What is a Meso Network?
• How would you employ a Meso Network?
• Applications
• Studies Underway
Today’s Agenda
• Analyze the exiting coverage in your Service Territory– NWS Stations– WeatherBug® Stations– Other Local Networks
• Identify “holes” in coverage. Consider weather station purchase
• Look at surrounding Regions to gauge ability to capture approaching weather
Employing a Meso Network
Example of Uniform Coverage
Broward County
84 Stations representing 21 County and Local Agencies
• Consider placing weather stations and cameras at critical infrastructures to view changes and impacts
• Target historical “problem areas”, or remote locations. If elevation varies greatly across territory, ensure representative coverage.
Placing Stations for Maximum Benefit
• Sensor placement is critical in achieving optimal accuracy in readings.
• Data collection and reliability of reports is critical. Finding locations with 24/7 operations, and back‐up power is preferred.
Site Selection
• What is a Meso Network?
• How would you employ a Meso Network?
• Applications
• Studies Underway
Today’s Agenda
Applications For Meso Networks
• Fills the gaps in regions/territories that may be problematic weather‐wise
• Monitor the severity of approaching storms
• Improve post‐storm response via validation of severe weather
• Ground truth other sources of weather information
• Integrate with GIS for planning and asset management
• Create outage models based on historical information, and improve outage forecasting with better initial data
Applications For Meso Networks
Verify wind speed ahead of storm cells
Identify holes in coverage
Applications For Meso Networks
View live characteristics of Storm during the event
Applications For Meso Networks
Monitor how weather impacts load in real‐time. This sea breeze dropped the temperatures in Boston metro by 10+ degrees on what was a mid‐90 degree day.
ESRI Google Earth
MS Virtual Earth
Live and local meso network data, coupled with geospatial solutions, combine situational awareness with your specific assets
Applications with GIS
GIS driven solutions, combined with GPS take the power of a meso network to a new level with location relevant alerting
Applications with GIS
Lightning Strike 10:36 AM
Lightning Strike 10:36 AM
Alerted area
10 mile radius
Alerted area
10 mile radius
Your Line Crews
Your Line Crews
• What is a Meso Network
• How would you employ a Meso Network
• Applications
• Studies Underway
Today’s Agenda
Consolidated Edison Deep‐Thunder Project
Studies Underway
Goal: To implement a world‐class, automated, meteorology based outage forecast management system
Consolidated Edison Deep‐Thunder Project
Studies Underway
IBM Deep Thunder
Run High Resolution Model
Ground‐truth to Observed Wx
Correlate to Outages
Consolidated Edison Deep‐Thunder Project
Studies Underway
IBM Deep Thunder
Next Step: Use live observations to better initialize the Models
Better Data in = Better Data out…
• Localized and timely weather data is the missing piece in the weather puzzle for today’s electric utility
• Accurate ground truth will improve situational decision making, as well as improve longer term planning
• One active project is demonstrating promise in outage forecasting by employing meso network data
In Summary