september 2012 efcc weather update september 2012 efcc weather update
TRANSCRIPT
September 2012 September 2012
EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update
September 2012 September 2012
EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update
Briefing FormatBriefing Format
Briefing FormatBriefing Format
This Season So Far
Next ~6 weeks
Winter/Summer Outlook 2013
This Season So Far
Next ~6 weeks
Winter/Summer Outlook 2013
So Far…So Far…
2012
Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres
Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres
Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres
So Far…So Far…
2012 10 Year Average
Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres 255 Fires/16,526 Acres
Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres 511 Fires/3,359 Acres
Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres 766 Fires/19,885 Acres
So Far…So Far…
2012 10 Year Average
Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres 255 Fires/16,526 Acres
Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres 511 Fires/3,359 Acres
Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres 766 Fires/19,885 Acres
Data through August 30th
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
CoolCool
So Far…So Far…
CoolCool
So Far…So Far…
CoolCool
Increasing (Wet)Increasing (Wet) Flat (Dry)Flat (Dry)
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
So Far…So Far…
Remainder Fire SeasonRemainder Fire Season
Remainder Fire SeasonRemainder Fire Season
Temperature Sep-Oct-Nov
Remainder Fire SeasonRemainder Fire Season
Precipitation Sep-Oct-Nov
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
SOI
Month
SOI* Values For the Top "Analog Years"and the Current Year (2011-12)
2011-12
2008-09
1971-72
1950-51
*ForSOI explanation see: http://oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/forecast_method.pdf
Tropical Pacific OceanODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumnTropical Pacific OceanODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumn
El El NiñoNiño
La La NiñaNiña
(2008-09; 1971-72; 1950-51)
September 2012 ForecastSeptember 2012 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation
Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast).Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast). Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation.Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation.
October 2012 ForecastOctober 2012 Forecast
Temperatures Precipitation
Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures.Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures. Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is
less confidence in the forecast for less confidence in the forecast for ““dampdamp”” conditions. conditions.
Looking Ahead: Winter/SummerLooking Ahead: Winter/Summer
La La NiñaNiña
El El NiñNiñoo
Looking Ahead: Winter/SummerLooking Ahead: Winter/Summer
El Nino conditions fall and winter drifting back toward Neutral conditions spring and summer.
El Nino conditions fall and winter drifting back toward Neutral conditions spring and summer.
Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer
Temperature Dec-Feb- Mar
Precipitation Dec-Feb- Mar
Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer
Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer
Temperature Jun-Jul-Aug
Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer
Precipitation Jun-Jul-Aug
Bottom Line:Bottom Line:
Bottom Line:Bottom Line:
At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.
At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.
Bottom Line:Bottom Line:
At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.
El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer
At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.
El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer
