Colorado Colorado Weather UpdateWeather Update

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented at Colorado Wheat Day, Colorado Wheat Growers Association, November 20, 2004, Estes Park, ColoradoPrepared by Odie Bliss

Thomas B. McKee (Professor Emeritus)Thomas B. McKee (Professor Emeritus)Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University

Statewide Mean Annual Temperature History

Colorado Average Temperatures

40.0

41.0

42.0

43.0

44.0

45.0

46.0

47.0

48.0

49.0

50.0

Year

Tem

per

atu

re (

deg

ree

F)

Actual Temperature Average Temperature

Colorado Average Precipitation

Statewide Annual Precipitation History

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/CO.html

Colorado Annual Precipitation

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(in

ches

)

Monthly Average Pan EvaporationAverage Monthly Pan Evaporation

for Akron and Springfield, Colorado

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Ev

ap

ora

tio

n (

inc

he

s)

Akron Springfield

3-Month SPIFraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 3 month SPI(1890 - September 2004)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1890

1893

1896

1899

1902

1905

1908

1911

1914

1917

1920

1923

1927

1930

1933

1936

1939

1942

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2001

2004

Year

Fra

ctio

n (

in p

erce

nt)

12-Month SPIFraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 12 month SPI(1890 - September 2004)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1890

1893

1896

1899

1902

1905

1908

1911

1914

1917

1920

1923

1927

1930

1933

1936

1939

1942

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

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1994

1997

2001

2004

Year

Fra

ctio

n (

in p

erce

nt)

24-Month SPIFraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 24 month SPI(1890 - September 2004)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1890

1893

1896

1899

1902

1905

1908

1911

1914

1917

1920

1923

1927

1930

1933

1936

1939

1942

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2001

2004

Year

Fra

ctio

n (

in p

erce

nt)

48-Month SPIFraction of Colorado in Drought

Based on 48 month SPI(1890 - September 2004)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

18

90

18

92

18

94

18

96

18

98

19

00

19

02

19

04

19

06

19

08

19

10

19

12

19

14

19

16

19

18

19

20

19

22

19

24

19

26

19

28

19

30

19

32

19

34

19

36

19

38

19

40

19

42

19

44

19

46

19

48

19

50

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

Year

Fra

ctio

n (

in p

erce

nt)

The Evolution of Our Recent Drought

1999 Water Year Precipitation

2000 Water Year Precipitation

2001 Water Year Precipitation

2002 Water Year Precipitation

US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2002

2003 Water Year Precipitation

US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2003

Where Do We Stand Now?

Water Year 2004 Precipitation as Percent of Average

Growing Season (May-Sep) 2004 Precipitation as Percent of Average

US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2004

WY2004 Temperature DeparturesWater Year 2004

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Dep

artu

re fr

om a

vera

ge, d

egre

e F

Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

South Platte Basin Snowpack

http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/basins.html

Reservoir LevelsColorado Statewide Reservoir Levels on October 1st

for Years 1997-2004

133

122

130

100

93

48

74 72

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Oct 1. 1997 Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Oct 1. 2003 Oct 1. 2004

Per

cen

t o

f A

vera

ge

Provisional data from the NRCS

Fort Collins 2004 Water Year Precipitation

Fort Collins2004 Water Year

(through Oct '03 - Sep '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Month

Acc

um

ula

ted

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(in

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1961 Min Year - 1966

Period of Record Average - 1890 - 2002 2004 Water Year 2002 WY

Akron 2004 Water Year PrecipitationAkron 4E

2004 Water Year (through Oct '03 - Sep '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Months

Acc

um

ula

ted

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(In

ches

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 2002

Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2004 Water Year Accumulated

Burlington 2004 Water Year PrecipitationBurlington

2004 Water Year (through Oct '03 - Sep '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Months

Ac

cu

mu

late

d P

rec

ipit

ati

on

(In

ch

es

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 1954

Period of Record Average - 1892-2002 2004 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated

Cheyenne Wells 2004 WY PrecipitationCheyenne Wells2004 Water Year

(through Oct '03 - Sep '04)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Months

Ac

cu

mu

late

d P

rec

ipit

ati

on

(In

ch

es

)

30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1909 Min Year - 1956

Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2004 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated

October 2004 Precipitation Totals

Fort Collins – 1.05” (107% average)Akron – 0.80” (94% average)Burlington – 0.73” (78% average)Cheyenne Wells – 0.41” (51% average)

What Comes Next?

TemperatureDec-Feb 2004

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationDec-Feb 2004

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

TemperatureMar-May 2005

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationMar-May 2005

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

TemperatureMay-Jul 2005

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationMay-Jul 2005

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

CoAgMetWeather Data for Agriculture

Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of:

TemperatureHumidityWindPrecipitationSolar energyEvapotranspiration

http://www.coagmet.com

Colorado Climate Magazine

Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic

$15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/magazine.php

Colorado Climate CenterColorado State University

Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu

click on “Drought”

then click on “Presentations”