The National Weather Service: Agency Update

Dr. William M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Space Weather Workshop 2 May 2017

Space Weather Prediction Center Established 1946 as part of Central Radio Propagation Laboratory

Operations – Space Weather Forecast Office

Daily forecast since 1965. Specifications; Current conditions Forecast; Conditions tomorrow Watches; Conditions are favorable for storm Warnings; Storm is imminent with high probability Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding storm thresholds

R & D – Space Weather Prediction Testbed Transitioning models into operations

Research-to-Operations • Applied Research • Model Development • Model Test/Evaluation • Model Transition • Operations Support

Operations-to-Research • Customer Requirements • Observation Requirements • Research Requirements

R2O

O2R

Customer Subscriptions Skyrocket… (through February 2017)

Frequent Users: Emergency Responders Major airlines Drilling and oil exploration Satellite companies Transportation sector

50,056

Small solar cycle, but the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during smaller than average cycles (e.g. 1859, 1921)

“Ready, Responsive, Resilient”

Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to

extreme weather, water and climate events

Better forecasts and warnings Actionable environmental intelligence

Consistent products and services Connecting forecasts to decisions

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Involves the entire US Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER

NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather- and Water-Ready Nation

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National Weather Service

Priority Activities at NOAA/NWS/SWPC Since 2016 SWW

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Observations • DSCOVR went operational July 2016 • GOES-16 launched November 2016 • GONG network remains operational • Space Weather Forward Observatory (SWFO)

Modeling:

• GEOSPACE operational • Upgrades to the WSA-Enlil Model • WAM prototype real-time system on WCOSS late

FY17 • E-Field model being tested for operations

SWORM/SWAP

National Weather Service

Space Weather Action Plan Highlights in Observations,

Data and Research

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• Chartered under White House Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP)

• Chaired by OSTP, National Weather Service, and Dept. of Homeland Security.

• OSTP: policy lead • NWS: operational forecasting • DHS: mitigation and response

• Released 29-October-2015 • Outlines goals for operations, research,

mitigation, and response in preparation for extreme events.

For copies, google “OSTP space weather”

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The O2R2O Plan and Phase 1 Benchmark documents went on Federal Register for public comment. Adjudicating and editing documents now (Goal 1 and Action 5.6)

Currently filling gaps in magnetotelluric (MT) surveys of the United States, concentrating on geographic regions with highest induction hazards – supports the NOAA-USGS new Electric field product for grid operators (Action 5.5.5)

NOAA supporting research into the social and economic impacts of space-weather effects (briefed by Abt Associates this morning - Action 4.5.2)

NSTC SWORM Subcommittee continues efforts to implement the Space Weather Action Plan

and Executive Order

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• The Embassy of Italy, the Italian Space Agency and the U.S. Department of State hosting the “Space Weather as a global challenge” on May 18th 2017 at Italian Embassy in DC

• UN/US Workshop on the International Space Weather Initiative: The Decade after IHY 2007 at Boston College on Jul 31 - Aug 4 o This workshop is held in preparation for UNISPACE+50 in

2018, the 50th anniversary of the first UN Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE)

Goal 6 – Increased International Cooperation

Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee (SWORM)

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• The O2R2O Plan and Phase 1 Benchmark documents will be complete and made public by June-July 2017

• Completion of Phase 1 benchmarks will enable launch of other SWAP actions dependent on benchmarks

• The NSTC SWORM Subcommittee will continue to oversee implementation of Action Plan and the Executive Order - Next SWORM meeting at White House EEOB on 25 May

• New SWORM.GOV (public) to be introduced soon

• SWORM will continue to pursue public-private collaborations between the Federal Government, industry, and academia to enhance observing networks, conduct research, and develop models

Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee (SWORM)

Near-term Path Forward

National Weather Service

Tom Geyer: The $$ Chart for Space Weather Challenge…

What’s happening? What’s the impact? What are the proposed

courses of action? What are the risks?

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COMMUNICATION with decision makers: “we don’t want a map discussion”

Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS): going the last mile!