space weather in nextgen: an update
DESCRIPTION
Space Weather in NextGen: An Update. April 27, 2010 Cecilia Miner NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch. Overview. NextGen Background The Current State Requirements Development Space Weather Requirements Demo…the Possibilities. NextGen Background. NextGen Background. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Space Weather in NextGen: An Update
Space Weather in NextGen: An Update
April 27, 2010
Cecilia Miner
NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch
April 27, 2010
Cecilia Miner
NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch
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OverviewOverview
NextGen Background
The Current State
Requirements Development
Space Weather Requirements
Demo…the Possibilities
NextGen Background
The Current State
Requirements Development
Space Weather Requirements
Demo…the Possibilities
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NextGen BackgroundNextGen Background
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NextGen BackgroundNextGen Background
Next-Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to:
Increase capacity and reliability
Improve safety and security
Minimize the environmental impact of aviation
Next-Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to:
Increase capacity and reliability
Improve safety and security
Minimize the environmental impact of aviation
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Current State—FAA Current State—FAA
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Current State—NOAA ResponseCurrent State—NOAA Response
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts; Airport Weather Warnings
(WFO)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts; Airport Weather Warnings
(WFO)
Forecasts and weather support by region for aircraft after departure and prior to landing
(CWSU)
Forecasts and weather support by region for aircraft after departure and prior to landing
(CWSU)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Airport Weather Warnings
(WFO)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Airport Weather Warnings
(WFO)
Global/National guidance for turbulence, icing, cloud ceiling, visibility,
thunderstorms, wind, volcanic ash, space weather
(AWC/AAWU/HNL/SWPC)
Global/National guidance for turbulence, icing, cloud ceiling, visibility,
thunderstorms, wind, volcanic ash, space weather
(AWC/AAWU/HNL/SWPC)
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Current State—SWPC ResponseCurrent State—SWPC Response
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NextGen Now and FutureNextGen Now and Future
TodayToday NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)
Not integrated into aviation Not integrated into aviation decision support systems decision support systems (DSS)(DSS)
Inconsistent/conflicting on a Inconsistent/conflicting on a national scalenational scale
Low temporal resolution (for Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making aviation decision making purposes)purposes)
Disseminated in minutesDisseminated in minutes
Updated by scheduleUpdated by schedule
Fixed product formats Fixed product formats (graphic or text)(graphic or text)
Totally integrated into DSSTotally integrated into DSS
Nationally consistentNationally consistent
High temporal resolutionHigh temporal resolution
Disseminated in secondsDisseminated in seconds
Updated by events Updated by events
Flexible formatsFlexible formats
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Functional Requirements Process
Functional Requirements Process
JPDO chartered a multi-agency team: DOT, DOC, DoD, NASA, Industry
Functional requirements state “what” needs to be done.
Examples:
The NextGen shall forecast space conditions (e.g., solar flares, coronal mass ejections)
The NextGen shall forecast geomagnetic storm activity out through 48 hours
JPDO chartered a multi-agency team: DOT, DOC, DoD, NASA, Industry
Functional requirements state “what” needs to be done.
Examples:
The NextGen shall forecast space conditions (e.g., solar flares, coronal mass ejections)
The NextGen shall forecast geomagnetic storm activity out through 48 hours
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Performance Requirements ProcessPerformance Requirements Process
Multi-agency team formed by FAA with focus on users
Preliminary ideas used for FAA investment decisions
Much progress made since then, but performance require-ments development continues
Multi-agency team formed by FAA with focus on users
Preliminary ideas used for FAA investment decisions
Much progress made since then, but performance require-ments development continues
Portfolio
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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response*
NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response*
* Viereck, Murtagh, Kunches, March 2010
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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response
NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response
Determine time of onset of solar radiation (flare) activity
Achievable now through far-term
Based on currently available solar x-ray observations; measurements will continue on GOES (NOAA)
Determine location of geomagnetic storm activity
80% probability now through mid-term; achievable by end-state
Current specifications based on ground-based magnetometers (USGS); higher spatial resolution (more stations) may be required
Determine time of onset of solar radiation (flare) activity
Achievable now through far-term
Based on currently available solar x-ray observations; measurements will continue on GOES (NOAA)
Determine location of geomagnetic storm activity
80% probability now through mid-term; achievable by end-state
Current specifications based on ground-based magnetometers (USGS); higher spatial resolution (more stations) may be required
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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response
NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response
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NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response
NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response
Forecast intensity of solar radiation (flares) 12, 24, and 36 hours in advance
50% or less probability of achieving through far-term
Current forecasts provide probabilities of having flares of various magnitudes. Accurate prediction of the magnitude of tomorrow’s flares is not yet achievable. Current research (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DoD)
Forecast intensity of solar radiation (flares) 12, 24, and 36 hours in advance
50% or less probability of achieving through far-term
Current forecasts provide probabilities of having flares of various magnitudes. Accurate prediction of the magnitude of tomorrow’s flares is not yet achievable. Current research (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DoD)
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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/
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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/
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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/
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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/
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Getting there…demosGetting there…demos
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/
Could show one or more data sources here
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Getting There…DemosGetting There…Demos
Icing
Demo Application Layers
Data CubeRegistries
Data Sources
https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/NNEWD
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2/
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Getting There…DemosGetting There…Demos
Icing
Demo Application Layers
Data CubeRegistries
Data Sources
https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/NNEWD
http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2/
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Questions?