SCIENCE, MODELS, AND SYSTEMS

Just what are we dealing with, here?

Science

Science is an area of study based on the assumption there is order in nature.

This knowledge is used to make predictions about what will happen in nature.

Children are natural scientists. Consider a small child playing with

blocks.

The Scientific Methods

There is no singular “right” way to conduct experiments. But, there are many wrong ways.

The Scientific Methods involve an orderly process (steps) that are designed to minimize (eliminate) bias and errors.

What we find in experiments In a word – data (singular is datum). Data are measurements recorded during

the conducting of an experiment. These measurements represent

quantitative information. There is no room for feelings/opinions. Just the facts, ma’am.

Variables

Variables are the changing quantities used and observed/measured in scientific experiments.

Independent Variables – Those which are manipulated by the

researcher. Dependent Variables –

Those which are changed by the independent variable. This is what is measured and recorded as data.

Theory

Definition of THEORY 1 : the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another 2 : abstract thought : speculation 3 : the general or abstract principles of a body of fact, a science, or an art <music theory> 4 a : a belief, policy, or procedure proposed or followed as the basis of action <her method is

based on the theory that all children want to learn> b : an ideal or hypothetical set of facts, principles, or circumstances —often used in the

phrase in theory <in theory, we have always advocated freedom for all> 5 : a plausible or scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to

explain phenomena <the wave theory of light> 6 a : a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation b : an unproved assumption : conjecture c : a body of theorems presenting a concise systematic view of a subject <theory of

equations>

Law Definition of LAW 1 a (1) : a binding custom or practice of a community : a rule of conduct or action prescribed or formally recognized

as binding or enforced by a controlling authority (2) : the whole body of such customs, practices, or rules (3) : common law

b (1) : the control brought about by the existence or enforcement of such law (2) : the action of laws considered as a means of redressing wrongs; also : litigation (3) : the agency of or an agent of established law

c : a rule or order that it is advisable or obligatory to observe d : something compatible with or enforceable by established law e : control, authority 2 a often capitalized : the revelation of the will of God set forth in the Old Testament b capitalized : the first part of the Jewish scriptures : pentateuch, torah — see bible table 3 : a rule of construction or procedure <the laws of poetry> 4 : the whole body of laws relating to one subject 5 a : the legal profession b : law as a department of knowledge : jurisprudence c : legal knowledge 6 a : a statement of an order or relation of phenomena that so far as is known is invariable under the given

conditions b : a general relation proved or assumed to hold between mathematical or logical expressions

Theory vs. Law

A Scientific Theory is based on repeated testing and reproducible results.

A good example is the Theory of Evolution.

What evidence supports this Theory? A Scientific Law is based on repeated

testing and reproducible results with no known exception.

A good example would be the 1st Law of Thermodynamics.

Observation

Definition of OBSERVATION 1 a : an act or instance of observing a custom, rule, or law b : observance 3 2 a : an act of recognizing and noting a fact or occurrence often involving

measurement with instruments <weather observations> b : a record or description so obtained 3 : a judgment on or inference from what one has observed; broadly :

remark, statement 4 obsolete : attentive care : heed 5 : the condition of one that is observed <under observation at the

hospital>

Inference

Definition of INFERENCE 1 : the act or process of inferring (see infer): as a : the act of passing from one proposition, statement, or

judgment considered as true to another whose truth is believed to follow from that of the former

b : the act of passing from statistical sample data to generalizations (as of the value of population parameters) usually with calculated degrees of certainty

2 : something that is inferred; especially : a conclusion or

opinion that is formed because of known facts or evidence 3 : the premises and conclusion of a process of inferring

Accuracy vs. Precision

Accuracy is the extent to which a measurement agrees with the accepted (correct) value.

Precision is the reproducibility and how closely measurements agree with one another.

Proof

Scientists can never “prove” something. There will always be another way of

testing a hypothesis. They can, however, disprove something. With repeated testing, errors and

mistakes can be eliminated, leaving you with a more durable proposal.

This is why there is no such thing as “settled science”.

Objectivity and Bias

As human beings, scientists can never be completely objective and free from bias.

Besides a personal desire and opinion on what will be tested and defined, there are contractual and monetary incentives to certain “findings”.

Consider the film “Scientists and the Alaska Oil Spill”.

Peer-review is intended to minimize or eliminate bias.

Frontier vs. Consensus Science Frontier Science focuses on controversy

and “breakthroughs”. It does not rely on peer-review or

reproducible results. Consensus Science is based on data,

results, theories, and laws that are widely recognized and accepted by experts in the particular field.

Pons and Fleischman http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion

Technology

Devices, processes, and products designed to control the natural world and/or perform tasks.

Technology is not the answer, but a tool used to increase efficiency.

Understanding of the principles at work with technology is essential if one expects to be considered valuable in a field.

Spell-check is a great example. Their are two many people who are hoping too

be considered invaluable to they’re employer.

Systems and Models

A system is a set of components that function and interact in a regular and theoretically predictable manner.

The environment involves many systems, each involving the interaction between the biotic and abiotic realms.

The earth consists of an incredible number of systems, many of which are not entirely understood.

Systems and Models (continued) Many systems are far too large and

comprehensive to adequately measure with traditional methods.

As a result, scientists often use models to simulate conditions for measurement.

There are many models used, but the primary ones we will deal with include: Mental Models (perceptions) Conceptual Models (diagrams and charts) Graphic Models (maps, etc.) Physical Models (miniature versions) Mathematical Models (equations to describe behavior)

Feedback Loops

There are two types of feedback loops in systems. These involve change in the system that either reinforces or slows the transformation. Positive Feedback Loops result in runaway

acceleration of a change. A good example of this is the melting of polar ice.

Negative Feedback Loops are more common and lead to a lessening of the change. A good example is the thermostat in your house.

Inputs, Throughputs, Outputs In any system, there will be input of things

like energy, matter, or information. Once in the system, this input will be acted

upon by the system and other inputs. We call that throughput and it leads to some form of transformation.

When this transformation occurs, there is output from the system.

At either of the two later steps, feedback loops will alter the process.

Example

Complexity of overlapping systems Historically, systems were studied in

isolation, as if they existed as a single entity.

Scientists are designing more elegant experiments to account for multiple systems overlapping.

Some systems are resistant to change and need external influence (political and financial).

Synergistic relationships a being exploited in recent years to bring about change.