school closure task force presentation oct. 8

7/27/2019 School Closure Task Force Presentation Oct. 8

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School Closure Public Hearing

School Closure Task Force

October 8, 2013


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Charge of the Committee

To investigate the educational

impact of closing 1 or 2

elementary schools and to

draft, in accordance with NYS

Education Law Article 9 Section402-A Procedures for Closing

a School Building and as per

the recommendation of the full

Board of Education, aneducational impact statement to

be filed with the Board not later

than December 19, 2013.


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Baseline Enrollment Projections


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Projected Kindergarten Replacement

*Incoming Kindergarten minus prior year graduating class.


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Projected Enrollments 2012-2022

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sp.

Ed

K12

Total

201213 191 200 226 282 270 254 264 304 274 283 302 309 285 22 3,466

201314 195 201 201 228 280 273 249 262 303 270 281 297 304 22 3,366

201415 150 205 202 203 227 283 268 247 261 299 268 276 292 21 3,202

201516 177 158 206 204 202 229 277 266 246 257 297 263 271 20 3,073

201617 174 186 159 208 203 204 224 275 265 242 255 292 259 19 2,965

201718 157 183 187 161 207 205 200 222 274 261 241 251 287 18 2,854

201819 157 165 184 189 160 209 201 199 221 270 259 237 247 17 2,715

201920 157 165 166 186 188 162 205 200 198 218 268 255 233 17 2,618

202021 157 165 166 168 185 190 159 204 199 195 217 263 251 16 2,535

202122 157 165 166 168 167 187 186 158 203 196 194 213 259 15 2,434

Note1: Assumesbirthratesandcohortsurvivalratiosremainconsistentwithpasttrends

Note2: Geocodedbirthdatawasnotyetavailablefor2011.Thisresultsingreateruncertaintyinkindergartenprojectionsfor2016

Note3: Thereliabilityofthisdatabeyond201617(CURRENTLYDRAFTDATA) isdiminishedsincebirthdataisnotyetavailable.

ProjectedGradeK12Enrollmentsfor201213to202122UsingCohortSurvival

Ratiosand5YearsofHistoricalData


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Peak vs. Projected EnrollmentSchool Gr.

Peak

Enrollment

Year

Peak *

Enrollment

Projected

Enrollment

2014-2015

Projected

Enrollment

2015-2016

Projected

Enrollment

2016-2017

Increase Miller Elementary K-5 1997 629 307 285 271

Katonah Elementary K-5 1999 518 364 352 350

Lewisboro Elementary K-5 1998 537 316 280 265

Meadow Pond Elementary K-5 2005 446 289 265 259

John Jay Middle School 6-8 2001 1,042** 779 792 766

John Jay High School 9-12 2007 1,311 1,144 1,096 1,056

District K-12 2006 4,041 3,202 3,073 2,965

*Peak

Capacity** Achieved prior to building addition


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K 1 2 3 4 5 Total

KES 45 61 58 66 63 71 364

LES 31 45 52 46 60 82 316

IMES 38 53 52 41 56 62 302

MPES 35 47 41 51 47 68 289

Totals 149 206 203 204 226 283 1,271

2014-2015 Enrollment Projections


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Year

K-5

3 Elementary

Schools

K-4

2 Elementary

Schools

Grade 5-8

2014 423 494 1059

2015 392 474 1018

2016 378 465 968

Projected Enrollment


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Grade

2013-2014AverageClass Size

Class SizeGoal

ContractualMaximumClass Size

K 16.3 20 251 17.6 20 252 17.9 20 253 19.5 25 28

4 21.8 25 305 20.5 25 30

2013-2014 Average Class Size


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Grade

Projected2013-2014AverageClass Size

Class SizeGoal

ContractualMaximumClass Size

K 16.6 20 251 17.3 20 252 17.0 20 25

3 22.5 25 284 25.3 25 305 23.8 25 30

Projected 2014-2015 Average Class Size


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Building

#FullSizeRooms #PotentialRooms*

TotalPossibleRooms

KES 24 3 27

LES 24 1 25

IMES 21 6 27MPES 22 3 25

*Roomssuchascomputerlabs,oversizedclassrooms,orthecurrentDistrictOfficeconfiguration

Weconductedinterviewswitheachelementaryprincipaltotakeinventoryofcurrentclassroomspace. Thefollowingchartoutlineslargeclassroomspaceinea

Data Analysis


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Number of Classrooms Needed

Description of Program Number of Rooms

Self Contained Special Education

Rooms

7.0 Full sized rooms are needed

Interventionists (ELA and Math) 4.5 Full sized rooms or 9 Small

Group Instruction Rooms

Occupational Therapists/PhysicalTherapists

3.0 Full sized rooms

Total Other Classrooms Needed 14.5 Rooms


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Classroom CapacityIn a 3 elementary school model with full-day kindergarten, we need 63 General

Education rooms for the K-5 population. In addition, we need 14.5 additional rooms as

outlined above. In total we would need 63+14.5=77.5 classrooms to accommodate ourK-5 elementary population in 3 schools.

KES27 KES 27 KES 27 KES 27

IMES27 IMES27 IMES27 IMES27LES25 LES25 LES25 LES25

MPES25 MPES25 MPES25 MPES25

Total Rooms77 Rooms77 Rooms79 Rooms 79

It is possible to accommodate the 2014-15 K-5 elementary population in 3

schools if the district operates 2 of its largest schools (IMES and KES) and

one of its smaller schools (LES or MPES) for a total of 79 available

classrooms.


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Scenario #1: (532 students = 41.81% disruption rate)

Close MPES (1,271 students total; approximately 423 students in each building)

KES IMES LES MPES

Target 423 423 423 Closed

Projected 364 302 316 289+289 -289

Net Result 364 302 605 0

+182 -182

Net Result 364 484 423 0+61 -61

Net Result 425 423 423 0

School Closure Scenario #1


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School Closure Scenario #2Scenario #2: (377 students = 29.7% disruption rate)

Close LES (1,271 students total; approximately 423 students in each building)

KES IMES LES MPES

Target 423 423 Closed 423

Projected 364 302 316 289

-134 +134

Net Result 364 302 182 423

+182 -182

Net Result 364 484 0 423

+61 -61

Net Result 425 423 0 423

(Only LES: 316 students = 24.8% disruption rate)


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Cost Assumptions 70% reduction in utilities

Class size at current levels for low savings

Class size at way between goal and max for high

savings

Renovations and transportation not included

Assumes buildings will not be sold

Assumes no revenue from buildings

Expenses attached to labor reductions were assumed

based on 2013 costs

Assumes full-day Kindergarten at ten (10) sections


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2014 2015 Financial Impact

Three (K-5) $2,250,000 $2,960,000


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Cost Savings Range


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0

50

100

150

200

250

Number of AM & PM Bus Stops

Number of AM & PM BusStops

IMES

Summary

Number of AM Runs 10

Number of PM Runs 10

Total Number of AM

and PM Runs

20

Shortest AM Run 3 min

Longest AM Run 49 min

Shortest PM Run 3 min

Longest PM Run 50 min

Mean 17:55.4

Median 16:00.0

Mode 06:00.0

KES

Summary

Number of AM Runs 10

Number of PM Runs 10

Total Number of AM

and PM Runs

20





Mean 17:57.2

Median 15:00.0

Mode 12:00.0

MPES

Summary

Number of AM Runs 9

Number of PM Runs 9

Total Number of AM

and PM Runs

18





Mean 18:47.2

Median 18:00.0

Mode 10:00.0

LES

Summary

Number of AM Runs 9

Number of PM Runs 9

Total Number of AM

and PM Runs

18





Mean 15:52.5

Median 16:00.0

Mode 08:00.0

Baseline Transportation Data


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Katonah-Lewisboro School District

school closure task force presentation oct. 8

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