SCENARIOS FOR THE

AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR IN

2020

CLIENT: INNOV-XXI

� INNOV-XXI is a portuguese companyworking in thedevelopment of Asterio, a roadster, currently ina roadster, currently inphase of prototype.

� Representing INNOV-XXI was Ricardo Baeta, CEO, and his brotherPedro Baeta.

� www.asterioroadsters.com

� www.innov-xxi.pt

Special Thanks to:

Entrepreneurship and Innovation AssociationEntrepreneurship and Innovation Association

Cool-Hunting and Entrepreneurship Association

Participants

� André Marquet

� Beta-I Associate

� Cátia Cruz

� Wouldo Steps Associate

� João Pequenão

� IT Consultant

� João Vaz Passos

� Wouldo Steps CEO

� João Vieira

� Mobility Consultant at TIS

� Pedro Baeta

� Partner at INNOV-XXI

� Pedro Pinto

� Service Marketing Manager at SEAT Portugal

� Ricardo Baeta

� CEO INNOV-XXI

Futurist & Facilitator:

Hugo Garcia

The output for the Workshop were

Strong Trends and 4 Scenarios

� Kitt

� Technologic scenario

� Caos

� Social-political environment in Caos� Social-political environment in Caos

� Utilitarian

� Rational use of the car as a tool

� Car-Toy

� Emotional relation between driver and cars

Strong Trends

� Electric and Hibrid technologies

� Safety

� Light Weight Vehicles

� Eficiency

� Experience & Fun

Usability� Usability

� Multi-tasking behind the wheel

� Smaller Engines

� Renting & Sharing Services

� Buy & go Sales Service

� New Sales Channels

� Agreements between different brands

Kitt

This Scenario is named after the vehicle in the popular 80’s TV-Show, because is technologically evolved and newer cars drive by themselves.

This technology was pushed forward by electric engines, that drove technology to be more electronic and less mechanic. It’s not possible to pop the hood, which makes no difference because no driver understands about fixing anything inside the car.

On the other hand, every useful information appears in the dashboard or in the windshield by augmented reality. Traffic signs also appear to the driver as well as GPS or driving recommendations.

The drive time becomes more useful, as the driver might be multitasking, reading the news or speaking on the The drive time becomes more useful, as the driver might be multitasking, reading the news or speaking on the phone

The driver may choose to drive manualy or auto-pilot, that will be mostly used in high-ways. But even when driving manualy, the vehicle may give security intervention, avoid breaking the law, or suport the driver as he multi-tasks like speaking on the phone or reading the news.

Cars are bought over the internet, which led dealerships to close-up and the consumer knows nothing about mechanics.

The car’s motherboard interacts with portable technology like smart-phones, opens the door when the owner is near, scans his condition and alerts the nearest hospital in case of any health condition.

This vehicles come with a Panic Button, that shuts down every electronics, braking the car slowly to a full stop.

Chaos

Oil, Lithium and Biodiesel prices go extremely volatile, rocketing every now and then.

Lobbyists pressure governments to support their type of energy with laws, increasing the complexity of the market.

Taxes, Laws and Subsidies mount up bringing social unsatisfaction.

Drivers react by learning mechanics, adapting their cars to different Drivers react by learning mechanics, adapting their cars to different energy sources as prices fluctuations occur.

Automobile brands close worldwide, not being able to react to market fluctuations. The existing ones try to join forces surviving trough partnerships.

Car get smaller and smaller and pay-per-use systems become popular

Utilitarian

As the world Economy evolves, and the middle class grows, living mostly in big cities, citizens feel a big need to have cars. However, resources costs increase along with demand, which leads to a very racionalist aproach on vehicles and resources.

Fewer brands as customization and personalization reduces, and mass production is one way to cost reduction.

Smaller engines and hybrids with pull-cord become very popular for their Smaller engines and hybrids with pull-cord become very popular for their efficiency which becomes top priority. Also very small cars, with one or two seats, the size of bikes become common.

Governments create a lot of obstacles and taxes, not only in highways, but also in cities or even by mile.

Consumers know a lot about vehicles, as they read a lot on the internet before purchasing or renting.

Dealerships become rare, but sharing and pay-per-use becomes common to deal with high costs. Modular cars or build-yourself are also available in the market as more affordable options.

Toy-Car

With a good development of public transports and urban mobility, the personal car is no longer a need.

Drivers who buy cars, do it as a pleasure because they like to drive. They know a lot about cars and mechanics, but not for need, just fun.

Cars are personalized, as the consumer takes part in the design and the construction. The first test-drive is made in a simulator on a game-console before ordering and assembling. After assembling the the construction. The first test-drive is made in a simulator on a game-console before ordering and assembling. After assembling the test-drive is often performed in a racing track.

Most cars are light and agile with very high tork, and a down-force aero-dynamic. But collectionism is popular with demand for replicas of older models like the Delorean.

Partnerships between brands are common in order to answer the most specific demand from clients, and usual dealers give space to multi-brand dealers that act as consultants helping the costumer to design his dream car.

How to use Scenarios

Scenarios are not predictions.

If our work was done properly, the automotive sector in 2020 should be somewhere in the middle of this 4 scenarios, or a combination of all of them.

Reading Scenarios never gives as much insight as participating in the Workshop, but even so, these should help to perform strategy or innovation in corporate activities related to this sector.Workshop, but even so, these should help to perform strategy or innovation in corporate activities related to this sector.

These 4 Scenarios also give insights between Causes and Consequences, like how public transports, technology and resources volatility affects the consumer, habits, services, brands, constructors, technology and car Services.

It must be also taken in consideration that, although this particular study was focusing worldwide, the automotive sector is clearly diferentfrom continent to continent and country to country.

Process

Date: 5 March 2011

From 10h00 to 17h30

Nº of participants: 8

Workflow:

Game “Past and Future Events”

Presentations

Future-wheels – Mega-TrendsFuture-wheels – Mega-Trends

Strong-Trends Identification

STEP Trends

Weak Signals

Uncertainties and Wild Cars

Scenarios built by crossing uncertainties and Trends

Results Presentations

For more information on organizing a Futures Study or Workshop contact: h.f.garcia@gmail.com

The Automotive Sector in 2020.